Jump to content


Photo

The silence is deafening....

  • Please log in to reply
644 replies to this topic

#351 llanitedave

llanitedave

    Humble Megalomaniac

  • *****
  • Posts: 22374
  • Joined: 25 Sep 2005
  • Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA

Posted 13 November 2012 - 09:42 PM

I think I'd be willing to take that bet.


Same here, I wonder how much Pess is willing to bet?
As a matter of fact, I will make it easy bet against proof of life on Mars being found not EVER existing with the qualification that we did not or do not bring it there.


The trick, of course, is that it's a bet I could never win. Life could be found on Mars next year, and I'd expect to pay up. (Happily, I might add). But we could explore a hundred years, find no living thing, but the question could still be regarded as "unsettled".

Still, I suspect for the long term it's a fairly safe bet for the most part. I would, however, leave Europa out of the equation. I think it might have some fairly reasonable possibilities.

#352 Jason H.

Jason H.

    Apollo

  • -----
  • Posts: 1444
  • Joined: 23 Nov 2007
  • Loc: Central Florida

Posted 13 November 2012 - 10:31 PM

http://longbets.org/bets/

http://longbets.org/predictions/

Life on Mars? Don't bet against it After NASA findings, some bookies stop tak...

#353 llanitedave

llanitedave

    Humble Megalomaniac

  • *****
  • Posts: 22374
  • Joined: 25 Sep 2005
  • Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA

Posted 13 November 2012 - 10:57 PM

Interesting stuff.

#354 Qwickdraw

Qwickdraw

    Surveyor 1

  • *****
  • Posts: 1725
  • Joined: 03 Mar 2012
  • Loc: Ann Arbor, MI

Posted 14 November 2012 - 06:33 AM

http://longbets.org/bets/

http://longbets.org/predictions/

Life on Mars? Don't bet against it After NASA findings, some bookies stop tak...


I have seen that site before, pretty neat.

#355 Mister T

Mister T

    Apollo

  • -----
  • Posts: 1319
  • Joined: 01 Feb 2008
  • Loc: Upstate NY

Posted 14 November 2012 - 07:28 AM

it's all about the benjamins...

#356 llanitedave

llanitedave

    Humble Megalomaniac

  • *****
  • Posts: 22374
  • Joined: 25 Sep 2005
  • Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA

Posted 14 November 2012 - 03:05 PM

16:1 is still pretty good odds against.

Not that I think we're capable of putting any number on it at this point.

#357 Pess

Pess

    (Title)

  • *****
  • Posts: 2872
  • Joined: 12 Sep 2007
  • Loc: Toledo, Ohio

Posted 16 November 2012 - 03:43 PM

I think I'd be willing to take that bet.


Same here, I wonder how much Pess is willing to bet?
As a matter of fact, I will make it easy bet against proof of life on Mars being found not EVER existing with the qualification that we did not or do not bring it there.


On Mars specifically, how about a bottle of double malt Scotch?

Who would have thought just a short while ago that organisms exist and actually thrive in a Ph 1 solution?

Life was on Mars. Life is still there.

But, in regards to the bet, how does one 'prove' a negative?

Pesse (Besides, Aren't the kardasians proof positive of strange alien lifeforms?) Mist

#358 Pess

Pess

    (Title)

  • *****
  • Posts: 2872
  • Joined: 12 Sep 2007
  • Loc: Toledo, Ohio

Posted 16 November 2012 - 03:45 PM

Still, I suspect for the long term it's a fairly safe bet for the most part. I would, however, leave Europa out of the equation. I think it might have some fairly reasonable possibilities.


Oh c'mon, Europa is almost Earth's sister under the surface!

Pesse (You just love those Earthy nooks...) Mist ;)

#359 Andy Taylor

Andy Taylor

    Twisted, but in a Good Way

  • *****
  • Posts: 1873
  • Joined: 24 Sep 2008
  • Loc: Epsom - UK

Posted 18 November 2012 - 04:07 PM

A good read

#360 Pess

Pess

    (Title)

  • *****
  • Posts: 2872
  • Joined: 12 Sep 2007
  • Loc: Toledo, Ohio

Posted 19 November 2012 - 03:22 PM

Andy-

Fermi has a few postulates that everyone seems to take as a 'given'.

For example, 'If 'this', 'this' and 'this' are true then it follows that we are alone in the Universe.

I believe the basic premise that, 'At any practical pace of interstellar travel, the galaxy can be completely colonized in just a few tens of millions of years.' makes an unwarranted assumption that I believe is false.

Once interstellar travel becomes easy, there would be no reason to re-enter a planets gravitational field. Everything needed to sustain life can be found without lugging it up & out of a planets gravity well.

Also as generations become accustomed to space travel they would be fearful of the wide open spaces and pressure of gravity on their bodies. Let's face it--low gee is a fun world to live in. Why would anyone live in 1G?

As an example, people lving underground or almost exclusively in caves find that suddenly thrust out into open areas cause extreme anxiety. Living for generations on a ship might make its inhabitants unwilling to depart for a planet.

So the Universe may be colonized already but planets are looked at solely as too much a pain in the butt to colonize and not worth the energy to extract resources from.

Pesse (We are basically living on what the Universe considers big garbage piles) Mist

#361 Qwickdraw

Qwickdraw

    Surveyor 1

  • *****
  • Posts: 1725
  • Joined: 03 Mar 2012
  • Loc: Ann Arbor, MI

Posted 19 November 2012 - 03:52 PM

I think I'd be willing to take that bet.


Same here, I wonder how much Pess is willing to bet?
As a matter of fact, I will make it easy bet against proof of life on Mars being found not EVER existing with the qualification that we did not or do not bring it there.



But, in regards to the bet, how does one 'prove' a negative?


Well, there you go...
you just conceded it is a negative, pay up ! :lol:

#362 Pess

Pess

    (Title)

  • *****
  • Posts: 2872
  • Joined: 12 Sep 2007
  • Loc: Toledo, Ohio

Posted 19 November 2012 - 05:30 PM

I would be willing to cede the Mars life argument if no life is detected in the first cave system we evaluate.

Pesse (But if that nightclub is a pop'n you pay up!) Mist

#363 llanitedave

llanitedave

    Humble Megalomaniac

  • *****
  • Posts: 22374
  • Joined: 25 Sep 2005
  • Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA

Posted 19 November 2012 - 11:05 PM

So the Universe may be colonized already but planets are looked at solely as too much a pain in the butt to colonize and not worth the energy to extract resources from.


That's my working hypothesis! :ubetcha:

#364 Mister T

Mister T

    Apollo

  • -----
  • Posts: 1319
  • Joined: 01 Feb 2008
  • Loc: Upstate NY

Posted 20 November 2012 - 10:12 AM

http://www.npr.org/2...scientists-m...

could be some good stuff :jump: :jump: :jump:

I'm guessing life on Mars moves at 101% of c :shameonyou:

#365 Pess

Pess

    (Title)

  • *****
  • Posts: 2872
  • Joined: 12 Sep 2007
  • Loc: Toledo, Ohio

Posted 20 November 2012 - 02:54 PM

http://www.npr.org/2...scientists-m...

could be some good stuff :jump: :jump: :jump:

I'm guessing life on Mars moves at 101% of c :shameonyou:


Pesse (That's just a tachy idea...) Mist :p

#366 Hikari

Hikari

    Viking 1

  • *****
  • Posts: 940
  • Joined: 05 Jan 2011
  • Loc: Maine, USA

Posted 24 November 2012 - 07:02 PM

The silence may actually be an indication of intelligent life--they did not bother inventing TV. Which would also mean they kept their intelligence. They may also be introverts where trying to find everyone in the universe and then worrying on how to get there or communicate with them was not a high priority.

#367 Rick Woods

Rick Woods

    Voyager 1

  • *****
  • Posts: 14602
  • Joined: 27 Jan 2005
  • Loc: Inner Solar System

Posted 25 November 2012 - 12:41 AM

The silence may actually be an indication of intelligent life--they did not bother inventing TV. Which would also mean they kept their intelligence. They may also be introverts where trying to find everyone in the universe and then worrying on how to get there or communicate with them was not a high priority.


Good thought. They probably realize that once you get to know the neighbors, pretty soon they'll be wanting to borrow your stuff and not return it.

#368 InterStellarGuy

InterStellarGuy

    Viking 1

  • *****
  • Posts: 561
  • Joined: 25 Jun 2008
  • Loc: Overland Park, KS

Posted 25 November 2012 - 02:00 AM

I don't get why people refer to the silence. Considering the only program we have at the moment, SETI, is far from conclusive, an the parameters required for it to succeed are so narrow that we could be smack dab in the middle of a galactic conversation between hundreds of sentient, intelligent species and never detect a single one. I find it far shortsighted to refer to the silence when our technology is in its infancy at detecting ET. If an ET civilization was living on a world orbitting Alpha Centuari AB, with our exact level of technology, they would be unable to detect us, unless we sent a signal there way, on a specific frequency, and they happened to be listening to our direction, at that frequency, at that moment, to hear it.

#369 Qwickdraw

Qwickdraw

    Surveyor 1

  • *****
  • Posts: 1725
  • Joined: 03 Mar 2012
  • Loc: Ann Arbor, MI

Posted 25 November 2012 - 07:13 AM

I don't get why people refer to the silence. Considering the only program we have at the moment, SETI, is far from conclusive, an the parameters required for it to succeed are so narrow that we could be smack dab in the middle of a galactic conversation between hundreds of sentient, intelligent species and never detect a single one. I find it far shortsighted to refer to the silence when our technology is in its infancy at detecting ET. If an ET civilization was living on a world orbitting Alpha Centuari AB, with our exact level of technology, they would be unable to detect us, unless we sent a signal there way, on a specific frequency, and they happened to be listening to our direction, at that frequency, at that moment, to hear it.



One question...
Have you heard any signal source by any means?
Didnt think so :foreheadslap:

#370 InterStellarGuy

InterStellarGuy

    Viking 1

  • *****
  • Posts: 561
  • Joined: 25 Jun 2008
  • Loc: Overland Park, KS

Posted 25 November 2012 - 01:19 PM

I don't get why people refer to the silence. Considering the only program we have at the moment, SETI, is far from conclusive, an the parameters required for it to succeed are so narrow that we could be smack dab in the middle of a galactic conversation between hundreds of sentient, intelligent species and never detect a single one. I find it far shortsighted to refer to the silence when our technology is in its infancy at detecting ET. If an ET civilization was living on a world orbitting Alpha Centuari AB, with our exact level of technology, they would be unable to detect us, unless we sent a signal there way, on a specific frequency, and they happened to be listening to our direction, at that frequency, at that moment, to hear it.



One question...
Have you heard any signal source by any means?
Didnt think so :foreheadslap:


Signal source? Of course we haven't gotten any signals. That's my point, our technology is severely limited by the type of signals we can even detect.

We can only detect signals that are directly beamed to us, and at a certain frequency, and only if we are listening.

Contrary to what some may think, SETI is *NOT* capable of detecting radio leakage. We couldnt detect say, for example, the TV broad casts of aliens living on a world around Alpha Centauri AB.

#371 Qwickdraw

Qwickdraw

    Surveyor 1

  • *****
  • Posts: 1725
  • Joined: 03 Mar 2012
  • Loc: Ann Arbor, MI

Posted 25 November 2012 - 01:41 PM

I don't get why people refer to the silence. Considering the only program we have at the moment, SETI, is far from conclusive, an the parameters required for it to succeed are so narrow that we could be smack dab in the middle of a galactic conversation between hundreds of sentient, intelligent species and never detect a single one. I find it far shortsighted to refer to the silence when our technology is in its infancy at detecting ET. If an ET civilization was living on a world orbitting Alpha Centuari AB, with our exact level of technology, they would be unable to detect us, unless we sent a signal there way, on a specific frequency, and they happened to be listening to our direction, at that frequency, at that moment, to hear it.



One question...
Have you heard any signal source by any means?
Didnt think so :foreheadslap:


Signal source? Of course we haven't gotten any signals. That's my point, our technology is severely limited by the type of signals we can even detect.

We can only detect signals that are directly beamed to us, and at a certain frequency, and only if we are listening.

Contrary to what some may think, SETI is *NOT* capable of detecting radio leakage. We couldnt detect say, for example, the TV broad casts of aliens living on a world around Alpha Centauri AB.


I was only suggesting that is the reason it is considered "silence"

be well

#372 Andy Taylor

Andy Taylor

    Twisted, but in a Good Way

  • *****
  • Posts: 1873
  • Joined: 24 Sep 2008
  • Loc: Epsom - UK

Posted 25 November 2012 - 02:49 PM

Signal source? Of course we haven't gotten any signals. That's my point, our technology is severely limited by the type of signals we can even detect.

We can only detect signals that are directly beamed to us, and at a certain frequency, and only if we are listening.

Contrary to what some may think, SETI is *NOT* capable of detecting radio leakage. We couldnt detect say, for example, the TV broad casts of aliens living on a world around Alpha Centauri AB.


Ho Hum. never anything good on the telly... :lol:

#373 FirstSight

FirstSight

    Duke of Deneb

  • *****
  • Moderators
  • Posts: 9849
  • Joined: 26 Dec 2005
  • Loc: Raleigh, NC

Posted 25 November 2012 - 06:12 PM

The simple explanation for the silence is likely that:
1) although intelligent life is, in aggregate, relatively abundant throughout the universe;
2) it is nevertheless extremely sparsely distributed, with the mean distance between intelligent civilizations so vast as to attenuate any signals therefrom far below any practical ability to distinguish them from background noise.

This sparse distribution may even be a feature, rather than a bug, which contains any pathologically destructive aspects of life in one location from invasively affecting another. It also contains more technologically advanced civilizations from predatory intrusions on less advanced civilizations, e.g. Columbus on the Native Americans.

#374 Pess

Pess

    (Title)

  • *****
  • Posts: 2872
  • Joined: 12 Sep 2007
  • Loc: Toledo, Ohio

Posted 26 November 2012 - 11:26 AM

I don't get why people refer to the silence. Considering the only program we have at the moment, SETI, is far from conclusive, an the parameters required for it to succeed are so narrow that we could be smack dab in the middle of a galactic conversation between hundreds of sentient, intelligent species and never detect a single one. I find it far shortsighted to refer to the silence when our technology is in its infancy at detecting ET. If an ET civilization was living on a world orbitting Alpha Centuari AB, with our exact level of technology, they would be unable to detect us, unless we sent a signal there way, on a specific frequency, and they happened to be listening to our direction, at that frequency, at that moment, to hear it.


You are missing the point.

The Universe has been around long enough that other civilizations would exhibit a broad spectrum of technology with some being more advanced, others less advanced than us.

So why are the more advanced ones so introverted?

My feeling is that we are so far behind the evolutionary curve of advanced space faring races that we are not worth contacting. It is only our hubris that makes man think he is the end all product of evolution.

Could you imagine man trying to contact the dinosaurs on a planet a million years behind us in evolution?

Man is still evolving. We have artificial hips, ears, knees etc. Someday the entire body will be replaced (TP=Total prosthesis) and will man still be man?

AI could come to dominate. Perhaps man will rapidly become a foot note?

We look for the first cell. Perhaps space faring races see the invention of the transistor back in Bell labs as their equivalent of a 'first cell' progeny.


Pesse (We got a long way to go and a short time to get there.) Mist

#375 Qwickdraw

Qwickdraw

    Surveyor 1

  • *****
  • Posts: 1725
  • Joined: 03 Mar 2012
  • Loc: Ann Arbor, MI

Posted 28 November 2012 - 05:47 AM

This sparse distribution may even be a feature, rather than a bug, which contains any pathologically destructive aspects of life in one location from invasively affecting another. It also contains more technologically advanced civilizations from predatory intrusions on less advanced civilizations, e.g. Columbus on the Native Americans.


It almost sounds like you are suggesting this "sparseness" is a necessary evolutionary step. If so I would suggest that even this feature as you describe it would not have had enough time to evolve unless there is an intelligent design already implemented in the life process to allow for this.






Cloudy Nights LLC
Cloudy Nights Sponsor: Astronomics