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Really close NEO 2012 DA14 Feb-15-2013

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#1 WillCarney

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:22 PM

2012 DA14 (35-79m) has a very close approach on Feb-15-2013. It will get with in .09 LD or .0002 AU with a predicted magnitude of 7.7. That's below our GEOSync's.
William

#2 Centaur

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Posted 09 December 2012 - 08:11 PM

Thanks for the heads-up, William. I've created a diagram depicting the positions of the asteroid, Earth and Sun as viewed from north of the ecliptic during the next few months. It can be seen at: www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids

EDIT: I've added an hourly ephemeris for 2013 FEB 15-16

#3 Centaur

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 03:17 AM

Based on current JPL orbital elements for this little asteroid, I calculate that geocentric closest approach will be 0.00031497 AU on 2013 FEB 15 at 22:26:51 UT. At that time the asteroid will appear in the zenith during nighttime from the middle of the Indian Ocean at E 84° & S 19°. For that time and location the distance from the asteroid will be 0.00027348 AU (40,912 km) with an estimated brightness of magnitude +8.8. Book your cruise now while ship cabins are still available! :cool:

#4 Centaur

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 01:18 PM

I've temporarily removed my preview graphics of NEA 2012 D14, since its osculating orbital elements will be greatly affected by its close passage to Earth. I've been in contact with Belgian celestial mechanics author Jean Meeus, who tells me that the orbit will remain somewhat uncertain until the asteroid comes closer, since it is currently hard to find in a rich star field.

I've also contacted Jean’s Italian friend Aldo Vitagliano, the creator of the Solex astronomical numerical integration program: http://main.chemistr...alvitagl/solex/ . He tells me that in the unlikely chance that the asteroid strikes Earth in 2026, the corridor will extend from the South Atlantic across Antarctica to the South Pacific. This morning he replied within a related thread in this forum titled “Gravity changing trajectory/speed questions”: http://www.cloudynig...5570752/page...

#5 Centaur

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Posted 18 December 2012 - 03:17 AM

Aldo Vitagliano gave me some data on asteroid 2012 DA14 to put into my copy of his Solex program. With its output and my self-made graphics software, I've created a view of the orbits of the asteroid and Earth from far north of the ecliptic plane. Do understand that the data is preliminary and subject to adjustment. Nevertheless, it's obvious that the orbit switches from one with a longer major axis than Earth's to a shorter one after close passage. The diagram can be seen at: www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids

#6 Dave Mitsky

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Posted 18 December 2012 - 06:19 PM

Additional information on 2012 DA14 can be found at these URLs:

http://neo.jpl.nasa....ws/news174.html

http://earthsky.org/...-to-earth-in...

http://www.huffingto...h-nasa-satel...

Dave Mitsky

#7 Centaur

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Posted 19 December 2012 - 07:33 PM

I’ve drawn a map that plots the locations on Earth where NEO 2012 DA14 will appear in the zenith as it zooms by our planet: www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids

Book your cruise to Sumatra now while ship cabins are still available. :cool:

I’ll remind everyone that predictions may be adjusted a bit during the coming weeks, but the little asteroid will not slam into the Earth.

#8 Centaur

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 02:43 AM

Another forum member asked me a question about this NEO in a private message rather than as a reply within this thread. He wanted to know if it would be visible from a specific location in Namibia which he plans to visit during February. Although I did answer him through the private message system, I am repeating my response below so that any readers in Africa will be aware.
_____________________

Please understand that the coordinates of the tiny asteroid have not yet been measured enough times to have high confidence in the accuracy of its positions and velocities. Aldo Vitagliano, the creator of the Solex astronomical numerical integration program, has provided me with 100 sets of data allowing for a reasonable distribution. The results that you see in my graphics are based on data that Aldo considers to offer the current nominal solution. I ran them through his Solex program to determine the most likely positions near the time of the asteroid’s closest approach to Earth.

With that caveat in mind, at the time of the asteroid’s estimated closest approach to the Earth’s center (21:24:42 UT+2), its estimated refracted altitude above your horizon would be only 0.4° while at azimuth 92.2°. You may have deduced from my map an altitude of 8° based on the comet being a great distance from Earth, which it will not be. It should set at 21:28. One hour prior to closest approach to the Earth’s center the estimates are an altitude of 7.4° and an azimuth of 133.3°. The Sun will have set at 19:38.

Enjoy your trip, but if it were me, I would not rearrange my schedule on the remote chance I might spot this asteroid.


#9 RedLionNJ

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Posted 06 January 2013 - 10:42 AM

Rather than the visibility from any one location on Earth (as the point of closest approach would, naturally, be visible from almost half the planet), I think the more interesting nature of this approach is the minor planet itself won't be visible from ANYWHERE at closest approach.

It will be inside the Earth's shadow cone.

Grant

#10 RedLionNJ

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Posted 06 January 2013 - 01:40 PM

It will be inside the Earth's shadow cone.


Actually, looks like (using Horizons) it won't pass through the shadow cone - the Sun/Target/Observer geometry is a few degrees off for this encounter.

Folks in or near the GMT timezone should have a great view of the whole pass. Wish I was there, on the evening of Feb 15!

Grant

#11 John Lowe

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:17 PM

2012 DA14 was just recovered and orbit improved. It will pass a little closer to the Earth than earlier predicted. Wow, from areas near Singapore the maximum magnitude will reach 6.9 with the asteroid almost overhead in the middle of the night.

John

#12 Centaur

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 11:37 PM

2012 DA14 was just recovered and orbit improved.


Thanks for the info, John. What is the source for the improved vector data?

#13 John Lowe

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 11:47 AM

MPEC 2013-A51 list the revised orbital elements for asteroids including 2012 DA14.
http://www.minorplan...K13/K13A51.html
I use the IAU's Minor Planet Center website to generate ephemerides for 2012 DA14 from various locations on Earth....
http://www.minorplan...PEph/MPEph.html
The output will include the asteroid to observer distance in astronomical units along with the magnitude, RA/Dec coordinates, altitude, and azimuth. One may even suppress output times when sun is above horizon or object is below horizon.

John

#14 Centaur

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 04:08 PM

MPEC 2013-A51 list the revised orbital elements for asteroids including 2012 DA14.


Thanks for the fuller info, John. Last night I e-mailed Italian professor Aldo Vitagliano, the creator of the Solex astronomical numerical integration program. This morning he sent me the newly updated vectors of the asteroid for inclusion in Solex.

His new nominal solution indicates that the closest approach to the Earth’s center will occur at exactly the same time as the previous best estimate: 2013 FEB 15 at 19:25:49 TD (19:24:42 UT). However, the distance to the Earth’s center at that time is now estimated to be 34,112 km rather than the earlier estimate of 34,373 km. The point on Earth where the asteroid will be in the zenith at that time is in the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra at E 96.595° & S 6.238°. The previous estimate was E 97.153° & S 6.360°.

In both cases, the estimated greatest brilliance for the point on Earth closest to the asteroid is magnitude +7.0. Interestingly, both the current and previous estimates for Perth, Australia at the moment of closest approach to the Earth’s center are magnitude +6.9. Even though Perth will be a little further from the asteroid, from Perth’s perspective the asteroid will be nearer to opposition from the Sun which increases the illumination.

Aldo notes that while the new parameters are hardly different from the previous ones, the uncertainties have been dramatically reduced. He says that the chance of an impact with Earth in 2040 is now zero. He indicates that another close approach without impact will occur in 2046.

I've updated my related graphics at: www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids


#15 NadirZen

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 09:59 PM

Using Solex with orbital elements found on a NASA site, I got the same time for the closest approach but get a slightly different distance : 34,101 km. I am wondering if I followed the correct procedure. From the NASA data I created a .SLX file which I read into Solex 11.09 using option 6 Min bodies file and then, after setting adaptive steps, extended precision and order 18 integration, I did a search for a close spatial approach.
Note that Solex defaulted to DE406 and not the more recent DA421.
Your comments would be greatly appreciated.

#16 Centaur

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 11:05 PM

Using Solex with orbital elements found on a NASA site, I got the same time for the closest approach but get a slightly different distance : 34,101 km. I am wondering if I followed the correct procedure. From the NASA data I created a .SLX file which I read into Solex 11.09 using option 6 Min bodies file and then, after setting adaptive steps, extended precision and order 18 integration, I did a search for a close spatial approach.
Note that Solex defaulted to DE406 and not the more recent DA421.
Your comments would be greatly appreciated.


Welcome to the discussion group, NadirZen.

On January 11 Solex creator Aldo Vitagliano gave me vectors for 100 possible clones of the asteroid that fall within the realm of the possible deviation from reality by the nominal solution. Due to recent measurements, this was an update from an earlier set of 100 clones he had provided me. When the solution that Aldo considers nominal is put into the Solex routine for close approaches with adaptive step sizes, the minimum distance is 34,112 km at 19:25:49 TT/TD/ET or 19:24:42 UT. This is the same solution that I use for my graphics. I round the published distance on my graphics to 34,000 km due to allowance for error. In fact the range for the 100 clones is from 33,973 km to 34,284 km. Solex remained with DE421 for me.

Aldo occasionally contributes to this message board. His real name is his screen name. His e-mail address is on his website where he indicates inquiries are appreciated.

EDIT: I get the same results whether or not a higher integration order and extended precision are used. However, in the case of such a close approach, adaptive step size is important. Aldo warned me about that.

#17 NadirZen

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 09:00 PM

Thank your for your much appreciated answer.
I still have a lot to learn about Solex but find it fascinating.

Richard

#18 GlennLeDrew

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Posted 08 February 2013 - 04:32 PM

At the zenithal passage during closest approach, what is the angular rate of motion? I'm curious if a handheld bino would unambiguously show motion against the stars?

#19 Ruimteman

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Posted 09 February 2013 - 07:54 AM

It will move at about 0.7 degrees per minute. This means it will need only 40 seconds to move the apparent diameter of the Moon. More info here:
http://www.esa.int/O...ncient_asteroid

#20 Ruimteman

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Posted 09 February 2013 - 08:43 AM

http://www.satflare.com/ seems to be a good site to calculate a map for observing this asteroid. Magnitude is 7.7 from Tokyo but the weather might not play along...

#21 Nick Rose

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Posted 10 February 2013 - 10:12 PM

I know North America wont see it during closet approach but how can I figure out where and when I can see 2012 DA14 in North America.

#22 Centaur

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Posted 10 February 2013 - 10:23 PM

I know North America wont see it during closet approach but how can I figure out where and when I can see 2012 DA14 in North America.


Nick, for us it will appear north of the Big Dipper during the early evening, but will have dimmed to about the eleventh or twelfth magnitude.

#23 Darren Drake

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 02:14 PM

Curt as a fellow Chicagolander do you have any way no acquire an ephemeris for us for this thing?? What evening is it visible near the big dipper???

#24 Centaur

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 02:41 PM

Curt as a fellow Chicagolander do you have any way no acquire an ephemeris for us for this thing?? What evening is it visible near the big dipper???


In the case of such a nearby object, Darren, as you seem to understand, a geocentric ephemeris or star chart is of little use on the day of closest approach. That's why you do not see them displayed on my website for this particular asteroid.

My general advice is to download my friend Aldo Vitagliano's free Solex astronomical numerical integration program: http://main.chemistr...~alvitagl/solex . Aldo is an Italian professor and a member of this message board. Choose option "G" to enter your Geographic Coordinates, and then option "V" for Adaptive Stepsize which is necessary for such a close approach. Finally, choose option "T" for Topocentric (your location's) celestial coordinates.

For North Americans the asteroid will be dimly visible only by telescope north of the Big Dipper during the evening of 2013 FEB 15.

EDIT: See amended information two posts below.

#25 cadfour

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 02:58 PM

I have a few questions regarding this near "hit" asteroid.

1. Is it just a matter of time that this asteroid missed us? In other words, does the path of this asteroid actually cross the path of where "we were" or where "we are heading" by about 15 minutes? Does Earth actually cross it's path?

2. Which side is the asteroid on..the side we are heading or the side we are leaving?

3. If this asteroid actually does cross Earth's path, has anyone plotted where that path crosses on the face of the planet? For example, if the path of the asteroid were a laser, where would that laser hit the surface as we passed by?






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