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Two peaks for this cycle?

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#1 Substrate

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 02:56 PM

I came across this article and thought I'd see whether you all think this is plausible...

Double-peak cycle article

#2 BYoesle

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 04:17 PM

Absolutely.

See: http://www.cloudynig...rd=solar&amp...

#3 brianb11213

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 05:04 AM

Definitely "Something Odd" going on ... but "no peaks" seems at least as likely as "two peaks" ... isn't there something about the high latitude jet streams which should have been indicating the next cycle for the past two or three years being entirely absent?

#4 BYoesle

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 11:23 AM

Hi Brian - you might be very right :(

I haven't found anything new on the jet streams, but here's another indicator and research from the National Solar Observatory Jan 2013:

Solar Physics
January 2013

Forecasting the Maxima of Solar Cycle 24 with Coronal Fe xiv Emission
Richard C. Altrock

Abstract

The onset of the “Rush to the Poles” of polar-crown prominences and their associated coronal emission is a harbinger of solar maximum. Altrock (Solar Phys. 216, 343, 2003) showed that the “Rush” was well observed at 1.15 R o in the Fe xiv corona at the Sacramento Peak site of the National Solar Observatory prior to the maxima of Cycles 21 to 23. The data show that solar maximum in those cycles occurred when the center line of the Rush reached a critical latitude of 76 degrees ±2. Furthermore, in the previous three cycles solar maximum occurred when the highest number of Fe xiv emission features per day (averaged over 365 days and both hemispheres) first reached latitudes 20 degrees ±1.7. Applying the above conclusions to Cycle 24 is difficult due to the unusual nature of this cycle. Cycle 24 displays an intermittent Rush that is only well-defined in the northern hemisphere. In 2009 an initial slope of 4.6 degress per year was found in the north, compared to an average of 9.4 ±1.7 degrees per year in the previous cycles. An early fit to the Rush would have reached 76 dgrees at 2014.6. However, in 2010 the slope increased to 7.5 degrees per year (an increase did not occur in the previous three cycles). Extending that rate to 76 degrees ±2 degrees indicates that the solar maximum in the northern hemisphere already occurred at 2011.6 ±0.3. In the southern hemisphere the Rush to the Poles, if it exists, is very poorly defined. A linear fit to several maxima would reach 76 degrees in the south at 2014.2. In 1999, persistent Fe xiv coronal emission known as the “extended solar cycle” appeared near 70 degrees; in the North and began migrating towards the equator at a rate 40 % slower than the previous two solar cycles. However, in 2009 and 2010 an acceleration occurred. Currently the greatest number of emission features is at 21 degrees in the North and 24 degrees in the South. This indicates that solar maximum is occurring now in the North but not yet in the South.


Emphasis added.

One of the best articles:
http://www.skyandtel.../123844859.html

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#5 Substrate

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:50 PM

Thanks for the thread link Bob! I like the graphs you found. This is very puzzling... If only half the sun is undergoing solar maximum at a time, does this indicate a "sputtering out" so to speak?

When I first came across the article I assumed two peaks was grand news.. Guess we're not having a two for the price of one sale after all :ohmy:

#6 Andy Devey

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 03:01 PM

Hi Guys

Thanks for the links - very interesting reading - if the coming solar cycles do disappear I would like to propose the name MORNGY MINIMUM as I for one will be well Pi**ed off

Regards

Andy

#7 BYoesle

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 11:07 PM

Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Spaceflight Center - see video here: http://www.youtube.c...h?v=6j4bl57D_1U - has stated that the north-south double peaked shape of cycle 24 may be similar to the profile of cycle 14 - which had a span of two years between peaks - indicating we may have to wait for a southern sunspot peak until 2014 - 2015:

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#8 BYoesle

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 11:08 PM

Previously, similarities were predicted to look like the profiles of cycles 5 & 6 - the “Dalton Minimum.” In either scenario, a period of lower solar activity, more akin to that of the mid to late 1800's than has typically occurred in the past century, seems more likely:

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#9 rumples riot

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 06:52 PM

Yes this is looking more and more likely. I remember asking Dr Tony Phillips in 2011 why there was virtually no activity in the southern hemisphere at that time. I had thought it odd and did not know at the time this was behaviour consistent with a double peak. I have noted that sunspots in the northern hemisphere are predominately near the equator and sunspots in the southern hemisphere are predominately at much higher latitudes. However, all that should be tempered with the polar crown prominences seen in the southern pole of late. If polar crown prominences are indicative of maximum occuring then this might be as good as it gets. Just purely speculation and time will tell. I do hope there is another peak in the coming year.






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