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Heads up! GOCE is decaying and will re-enter soon

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#1 obin robinson

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 03:09 PM

The ESA's GOCE satellite has ended its multi-year mission and is rapidly decaying. GOCE has been on a gravity mapping mission for years. The mission came to an end a few weeks ago and the satellite will re-enter the atmosphere soon.

http://www.esa.int/O...ompletes_its...

Updates can be tracked from here.

http://www.n2yo.com/?s=34602

This should be interesting.

obin :cool:

#2 sg6

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 02:30 PM

Looked at the tracling site and the altitude has steadily increased from 206.7 to 211.8Km.

Isn't it supposed to be comng down? :question:

#3 obin robinson

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 03:30 PM

It is in an elliptical orbit. It's 193km and descending as of this minute and dropping. In septermber it was 230+km in altitude.

http://www.spaceflig...e-re-entry.html

It's coming down and we don't know where exactly. Hopefully it will be over the ocean.

obin :grin:

#4 panhard

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 06:32 PM

Heads up???? Duck incoming. :grin: Thanks for the warning. Let's hope it has a wet landing.

#5 obin robinson

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 06:51 PM

It's dipping down to 190km! It's going to be an interesting re-entry!

obin :grin:

#6 obin robinson

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Posted 06 November 2013 - 02:38 PM

The orbit has shrank down to 183 x 191 kilometers. Current estimate for re-entry is Monday, November 11, 2013, +/-1 day. If it starts tumbling it may re-enter earlier. I think it will dip pretty low before it stars tumbling because it is a very streamlined design. As it dips lower you should be able to see it clearly at high magnification. Once it starts tumbling it will put on quite a display. The satellite body has plenty of reflective surfaces at angles which will make it flash like a strobe in the sky as it tumbles.

obin :jump:

#7 ischua

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 09:27 PM

ALTITUDE [mi]: 105 dropped 10mi in the last 20 min and back up to 119 in the same amount of time.

#8 WarmWeatherGuy

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 11:39 AM

The story has made it to Newsy

http://www.newser.co...k-to-earth.html

#9 NoRain

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 11:56 AM

Hello
http://www.n2yo.com/space-station/
Its also tracks things that are not going to fall on us just yet.

#10 obin robinson

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 06:55 PM

It's dipping under 160km/100 miles. This thing is literally in the upper atmosphere at the altitude that meteors start to burn. It can't be long now. I'd keep eyeballs pointed at the sky if I were in the flight path. GOCE should be spectacular as it burns up.

obin :shocked:

#11 T1R2

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 07:25 PM

has just dipped to the 98 mi.alt. mark and went off radar over E China, I don't know if this means it had just re-entered, or a glich in my comp. but interesting.

#12 T1R2

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 07:29 PM

just went back to website and it looks to still be up...so, we wait some more.

#13 WarmWeatherGuy

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 07:41 PM

I suspect the altitude given is above an oblate spheroid model of the Earth. For that reason I have been looking at the altitude when it crosses the equator.

Here are the altitudes in miles above the equator while going North to South (descending node) for November 9th. Times are EST, p.m.

12:10 99.47
1:38 99.??
3:06 98.39
4:34 97.85
6:02 97.15
7:30 96.30
8:56 95.46
10:24 94.63
11:52 93.81

Here are the altitudes in miles above the equator while going South to North (ascending node)

12:54 101.90
2:22 101.48
3:50 100.99
5:18 100.55
6:46 98.70
8:12 98.00
9:40 97.29
11:08 96.59

Notice the big drop in apogee (or close to apogee?) at 6:46.

The website shows you where it thinks the satellite is, not where it actually is. It probably gets periodic updates so a big jump may be due to an update.

Edit: added more data points

#14 obin robinson

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 09:38 PM

http://www.spaceflig...e-re-entry.html

" According to ESA, GOCE is still operating with average drag levels now above 90 Millinewtons. Gradiometer data is only usable when drag levels are less than 80mN. The satellite is still maintaining its attitude and will likely remain in an aerodynamically stable position until re-entry and disintegration.

"Recently we have noticed a significant temperature increase in several areas of the spacecraft, arguably linked to GOCE encountering a more and more dense atmosphere as its orbit keeps dropping," GOCE Operations Manager Christoph Steiger said in a status update.

Re-Entry is still expected to occur in the overnight hours on Sunday/Monday."

Re-Entry Predictions:
ESA: Night of November 10-11
USSTRATCOM: November 10, 2013 - 23:02 UTC +/-16 Hours
Aerospace Corp.: November 11, 2013 - 8:20 UTC +/-15 Hours

Plus or minus 15 or 16 hours? You gotta love that "accuracy" being computed by multi million dollar computers. LOL.

obin :grin:

#15 Megabusa

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 11:27 PM

So how or we doing this ? I'm looking at the tracking and all we can do is hope it starts interring the atmosphere where we can see it in our area, right ? are it could be over China or something and we miss it , ( Re-Entry is still expected to occur in the overnight hours on Sunday/Monday ) So as I'm looking at the tracking, is there a way to find that it's starting to re-enter ? Or do we just look up at the general vicinity when it's passing over ?

#16 T1R2

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 11:33 PM

that's about all we can do for now Mega, I've not seen it yet, :stuck:

#17 Megabusa

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 11:40 PM

that's about all we can do for now Mega, I've not seen it yet, :stuck:

I got my eyes glued to that tracking site ,

#18 T1R2

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 11:59 PM

every time I've checked, its been over China or Alaska or the ocean.

#19 WarmWeatherGuy

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 12:14 AM

So how or we doing this ? I'm looking at the tracking and all we can do is hope it starts interring the atmosphere where we can see it in our area, right ? are it could be over China or something and we miss it , ( Re-Entry is still expected to occur in the overnight hours on Sunday/Monday ) So as I'm looking at the tracking, is there a way to find that it's starting to re-enter ? Or do we just look up at the general vicinity when it's passing over ?


The tracking is a calculation based on old data. We don't have radar on it continuously. The satellite will reenter the atmosphere and the web site will show it still going round and round. We will have to read about it in the news after the fact.

The orbit is near the terminator so if you're going to see it come crashing down it will have to be in the morning or the evening for you. You won't see it happen at midnight or noon. Where ever it happens it will be where the Sun is low to the horizon, or just below the horizon.

#20 Megabusa

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 12:41 AM

So how or we doing this ? I'm looking at the tracking and all we can do is hope it starts interring the atmosphere where we can see it in our area, right ? are it could be over China or something and we miss it , ( Re-Entry is still expected to occur in the overnight hours on Sunday/Monday ) So as I'm looking at the tracking, is there a way to find that it's starting to re-enter ? Or do we just look up at the general vicinity when it's passing over ?


The tracking is a calculation based on old data. We don't have radar on it continuously. The satellite will reenter the atmosphere and the web site will show it still going round and round. We will have to read about it in the news after the fact.

The orbit is near the terminator so if you're going to see it come crashing down it will have to be in the morning or the evening for you. You won't see it happen at midnight or noon. Where ever it happens it will be where the Sun is low to the horizon, or just below the horizon.

Thank U for the Heads Up

#21 obin robinson

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 11:37 AM

http://www.spaceflig...e-re-entry.html

"[15:30 UTC]: GOCE is now at 133 Kilometers dropping about 1.5km per hour and re-entry is less than 10 hours away. The satellite is still operating. Drag levels are preventing any more Gradiometer science so the instrument was switched off. GOCE is in a stable attitude, continuing to make good measurements with its GPS receivers. ESA plans to operate the satellite as long as possible, keeping up regular ground station passes to downlink data."

It looks like it will re-enter before the end of the day.

obin :shocked:

#22 choran

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 02:46 PM

I've got a crack at it. It's due for a visible pass in my area (southern California) at roughly 7:30 tonight. Problem is, it's a low pass, only about 13 degrees above the horizon in any event, out a couple of hundred miles in the Pacific. The time frame is good, though, according to an update on the crash time. I've maybe a chance in 1000, but that's OK. I do have a sure thing in the morning though--ISS at -3.3 at about 5:15 AM.

#23 obin robinson

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 03:47 PM

It's at 133km now. I can't believe it's still in orbit! Get a camera ready just in case it's a bit toasty when it passes you. That might be the last pass!

obin :jump:

#24 rnc39560

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 05:25 PM

Hey Obin, I couldn't see anything from my location huh?

#25 obin robinson

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 06:13 PM

I think we're out of luck in the central part of the country unless it burns up during daylight. it still has a few orbits left.

obin :jump:






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