"You're not afraid of the dark, are you?" - Riddick "The best scientists are humble. They seek to understand, not to ensure their legacy, but merely to understand." - Mori
Quote: Careful what you wish for.
Quote: Quote: Careful what you wish for. I think you misunderstood me. What I meant was that a comet impact on Mars was a cool event to watch from (the safe and distant) Earth! Clear skies!Thomas, Denmark
A man is a small thing, and the night is very large and full of wonders.
Quote: Lol, no I got you.'Careful what you wish for' is just a superstitious saying that warns against potential unintended consequences of wishes granted.
Quote: I agree it would be cool to witness an impact on a rocky planet. Oops.
Kevin Apertura 8" Dob, Pentax K-5 My Photography Website -- My Flickr
For astronomical graphics, including monthly wallpaper calendar, visit: http://www.CurtRenz.com/astronomical
Quote:Are there an estimates for the apparent magnitude as seen from earth? I know it's probably too early to tell.
I want to do more then just look.
Brian S. Johnson
All Terrain Z10 http://tinyurl.com/ouxfsyu with refigured primary, 63mm Protostar secondary.
Quote:An object with a current orbit uncertainty spread of > 600,000 km aiming at a planet 6,800 km wide - hummWhich part of the uncertainly spread is Mars currently in? Elenin doesn't say but my bet its in the tail out at the << 0.001% mark :cynic: :moi:
Michael Rosolina Celestron CGE Pro 1400 f/11 SCT 1980 Orange Tube C8 f/10 SCT 108mm f/4.2 Astroscan Reflector 50mm f/10 Galileoscope 40mm PST f/10 APM Germany HD 15x70 binoculars Canon 12x36 IS II binoculars Mark I Eyeball My CN Gallery
Quote:The side of Mars that could be hit is going to face us, correct?
Quote:Mars is in Scorpius at the time and not very far from the Sun.
Quote:This would be an increadible event but the odds are pretty small at this point for an actual collision on Oct 19, 2014. Mars will be about 5.7 arcseconds and set around 9 pm local time on that day. Here is the info... http://spaceobs.org/en/news/
.... back yard astronomer ================= Don't forget to look at the moon often. Its a play ground of fun if you throttle up the magnification!
Quote:Mars should be far enough from the sun in October 2014 to be in a dark sky for somebody on the this planet to make observations. See Curt's charts further back in this thread. The solar elongation is above 60 degrees I think - could be higher
Quote:I forgot to point out that even though Elenin estimates the comet diameter as 50 km, others (Bortle) recon that absolute brighness equates to a 5 km object. This is fair as a 50 km object is represented by Hale-Bop. Siding Springs doesn't look like its a Hale-Bop class comet. So thats a 5 km object with a > 600,000 km uncertainty aiming at a 6,800 km cross section ....
Quote:With the comet most likely just doing a very VERY close flyby of mars. Have they calculated what the flyby would do to its orbit?
Quote:How did he run the simulation ?
Quote:Wow... That is so much more complicated than I can understand.haha.It will take me a few days to try and wrap my head around Solex. PS: Your maps are awesome.
Quote:Quote:I forgot to point out that even though Elenin estimates the comet diameter as 50 km, others (Bortle) recon that absolute brighness equates to a 5 km object. This is fair as a 50 km object is represented by Hale-Bop. Siding Springs doesn't look like its a Hale-Bop class comet. So thats a 5 km object with a > 600,000 km uncertainty aiming at a 6,800 km cross section .... Thank you for somebody else speaking out with rationale and sensibility. When I first heard of this close pass to Mars, I immediately downloaded all the observations from the MPC and stuffed them into Bill Grey's find_orb (spectacularly powerful piece of software that's often overlooked) - estimated closest proximity to Mars was in the order of half a million kilometers with the uncertainty being about 350,000km. To me, that strongly implies "no collision possible". If this was Earth instead of Mars, it would be a zero on the Torino Scale...Grant
Quote:Thats very useful Curt. It also shows me this event is going to be very low and close to the horizon in the worse part of my nearest city LP dome - oh well!
Quote:The closest approach between the centers of Mars and the comet utilizing the nominal solution is 50,586 km (81,410 mi) on 2014 OCT 19 at 19:21:24 UT.