MessiToM
professor emeritus
Reged: 12/21/09
Loc: Huntingdon PA
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Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
#5603685 - 01/03/13 08:53 PM
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Shame on me!
Ive been duped two nights in a row now. Beautifully clear all dang day long. Clear sky clock and weather.com saying "clear" predicted.
so I lug this big 17.5" outside, assemble the big pain in the you know what early so the primary can equilize.
You know what happens. I step outside after dusk COMPLETELY overcast. I tried waiting them out last night until 3am est with no luck. I havent been able to observe since the previous new moon and that was naked eye (geminids)
UGH!!! Now I have a nice cold scope ready to go under cloudy sky's for the 2nd night in a row. Stinks setting this thing up to just break it down and lug it all inside un used. Iam missing my smaller (12") Newtonian. Took me 2 minutes to take the base and OTA in or out of the house.
rant complete
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SabiaJD
professor emeritus
Reged: 02/20/05
Loc: Clarks Summit, PA
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: MessiToM]
#5603829 - 01/03/13 10:42 PM
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I have had the same experence a few times using only Clear Sky Chart for sky condition expectations. It is a good reference but should not be your only refernce.
Just today CSC indicated clear skies tonight, so I checked CSC hour by hour predictions for the day and compared it to weather satelite images from RAP.
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/
Then I compare both to NOAA Graphic Sky condition forecast.
http://graphical.weather.gov/
Select your region by clicking on the map.
NOAA and CSC were not the same, NOAA indicated clouds rolling in CSC clearing. RAP shows clouds moving in.
Fortunate today I could see the clouds arriving before sunset. Therefore I did not set out traveling to my observing site.
Using all of these tools helps to determine if sky conditions will be good for observing in a short term time period.
They also help you learn your seasonal weather patterns, the amateur astronomer second hobby. Put some trust in your local TV weathermen, follow how accurate they are vs. your own predications.
John D Sabia
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Dennis_S253
scholastic sledgehammer
Reged: 11/22/11
Loc: West Central Florida
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: SabiaJD]
#5604146 - 01/04/13 06:46 AM
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Yep, I also check 5 or 6 sites. Here's a nice one. Aviation Weather
You might want to make a shed that you can remove the roof. Might be easier....clear skies
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BSJ
scholastic sledgehammer
Reged: 12/22/08
Loc: Grand Isle, VT
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: Dennis_S253]
#5604193 - 01/04/13 07:44 AM
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Yeah, I've been burned by the CSC many times. Like it's raining when it says zero cloud cover!
WOW! The graphical.weather.gov site is great.
I use this site for Satellite imagery. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/
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csrlice12
Post Laureate
Reged: 05/22/12
Loc: Denver, CO
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: BSJ]
#5604253 - 01/04/13 08:44 AM
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According to my pizza delivery person, you can turn that scope 180* and look at alien ant colonies, so all is not lost....... 
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Tony Flanders
Postmaster
Reged: 05/18/06
Loc: Cambridge, MA, USA
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: MessiToM]
#5604262 - 01/04/13 08:47 AM
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See the online article Stargazing Forecasts by Phil Creed and me.
It's particularly helpful to check out satellite photos that show what the weather is actually doing, rather than what it was predicted to do. One good source is the Geostationary Satellite page. Learn to correlate the visual images with the forecast movies during the day, and then learn to correlate the visual images with the IR images, which is all that's available at night.
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Grava T
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 06/18/08
Loc: Quebec, Canada
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: Tony Flanders]
#5604335 - 01/04/13 09:12 AM
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Yep, that happened to me on several occasions when I had my large newt so eventually I got sick of it and sold it. Now I observe with small classic refractors, that can pretty much be lifted with one hand out the door, and an eight inch dob. They might not go as deep as the large newt but they get used much more often and I am a much happier observer now. 
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cliff mygatt
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 01/27/09
Loc: Kitsap County, WA
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: Grava T]
#5604402 - 01/04/13 09:43 AM
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My solution to lugging out the 12 inch Dob is a 120mm Refractor on a EQ mount ready to go at a moments notice and can be handled with one hand. Just some thoughts and good luck!
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FirstSight
Postmaster
Reged: 12/26/05
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: Tony Flanders]
#5604521 - 01/04/13 10:46 AM
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Quote:
See the online article Stargazing Forecasts by Phil Creed and me.
It's particularly helpful to check out satellite photos that show what the weather is actually doing, rather than what it was predicted to do. One good source is the Geostationary Satellite page. Learn to correlate the visual images with the forecast movies during the day, and then learn to correlate the visual images with the IR images, which is all that's available at night.
I am continually astounded at how over-reliant so many of my fellow astronomers seem to be on thumbnail summary forecasts from sources like weather.com and the "clear sky clock", as if the latter was some sort of wizard oracle, when (insofar as probability of clouds) far more reliably accurate primary sources from the National Weather Service, such as dynamic weather maps and satellite imagery, are readily available and not very difficult at all to learn to interpret. For that matter, the National Weather Service provides a more detailed "Area Forecast Discussion" which explains the data, weather dynamics, and reasoning behind their forecast for the current 24 hour period and one to several days beyond. See, for example, the NWS-Raleigh NC "Area Forecast Discussion" for Jan 14 2013. While sometimes this discussion dips into details requiring more advanced knowledge to fully appreciate, nevertheless in general it's not at all difficult for an intelligent layperson to fully grasp the weather dynamics being discussed and predicted, even skimming over some of the more arcane technicalities.
Recognize that the usefulness of the clear sky clock is as a thumbnail capsule forecast tuned to the needs of astronomers, but not nearly as usefully accurate for a go/no go decision on an observing outing as three to five minutes spent with primary National Weather Service sources.
Edited by FirstSight (01/04/13 12:15 PM)
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CJK
professor emeritus
Reged: 12/05/12
Loc: Scenic SE TN
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: FirstSight]
#5604586 - 01/04/13 11:19 AM
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I like the pointer to the aviation weather sites above. Pilots (especially VFR pilots like me) are keenly interested in cloud cover and cloud ceilings, and you'll find that information in any aviation weather app or site.
Another useful resource!
-- Chris
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wky46
Carpal Tunnel
Reged: 12/12/05
Loc: west Ky.
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: MessiToM]
#5604589 - 01/04/13 11:20 AM
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Definately need a place dedicated to keep your scopes in, huh  ? A 17.5" telescope has got to be a bear to lug around.
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skinnyonce
super member
Reged: 03/23/11
Loc: ohio
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: MessiToM]
#5604606 - 01/04/13 11:35 AM
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I guess apeture comes with a price besides the $$$$$
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Startraffic
sage
Reged: 02/12/06
Loc: Lat. 39.143345, Long. -77.1748...
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: skinnyonce]
#5604776 - 01/04/13 01:15 PM
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Must be a new scope, 2 week minimum cloud zone.
Clear Dark Skies
Startraffic
39.138274 -77.168898
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NeilMac
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 09/25/10
Loc: MedHat, AB, Canada
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: Startraffic]
#5604900 - 01/04/13 02:19 PM
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LOL I havent relied on the weather forecast for a very long time. Right now it indicts snow and as I look out the window its total clear sunny skies. My thermometer says +5, they say +1.
I keep my scope in the garage so i dont have to worry about climate.
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csrlice12
Post Laureate
Reged: 05/22/12
Loc: Denver, CO
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: NeilMac]
#5605020 - 01/04/13 03:23 PM
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All I know is that if it's clear out, there'll be something else that needs doing; if it's a night I have free, all the clouds show up to celebrate......
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wky46
Carpal Tunnel
Reged: 12/12/05
Loc: west Ky.
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: csrlice12]
#5605334 - 01/04/13 06:23 PM
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All I know is that if it's clear out, there'll be something else that needs doing; if it's a night I have free, all the clouds show up to celebrate......
Ain't that the truth! Beautiful clear evening tonight, but...I'm baby sitting 3, 4 and 7 yr. old girls til ten tonight. Maybe then, if only I can muster the strength 
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northernontario
scholastic sledgehammer
Reged: 07/01/09
Loc: Porcupine, Ontario Canada
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: wky46]
#5605350 - 01/04/13 06:38 PM
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Crystal clear around 20:00. The weather channel gave me about a 3 hour window.
Rolled out the big guy, only to watch Jupiter disappear behind the clouds in a slow and painful fashion.
All in all, it took about 15 minutes.
jake
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kansas skies
sage
Reged: 12/02/12
Loc: Kansas, USA
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: northernontario]
#5605917 - 01/05/13 01:46 AM
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I for one am amazed at how accurate the Clear Sky Chart website seems to be in predicting seeing conditions in my area. Overall, I find it to be fairly reliable over a 36 hour window of time. Tonight, the forecast was for clouds to roll in and then break, at which time the transparency was to degrade. I figured that I had a two hour window of clear sky, so I hauled a hundred pounds worth of scope out to take advantage of what little time I had. Normally, I wouldn't have put this much effort into it, but I wanted to take a look at Jupiter (which was beautiful, btw). Later, and precisely at the time predicted, the clouds rolled in and obscured everything in the sky. A few minutes later, the clouds gave way to a thick haze and I was able to continue my observations for a little while longer through the haze. When the clouds started to thicken again, I packed it all in.
Bill
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Qwickdraw
sage
Reged: 03/03/12
Loc: Ann Arbor, Mi
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: MessiToM]
#5606193 - 01/05/13 09:32 AM
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One word...
Observatory
Maybe two...
Cash
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csa/montana
Den Mama
Reged: 05/14/05
Loc: montana
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: Qwickdraw]
#5606256 - 01/05/13 10:23 AM
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Quote:
One word...
Observatory
Maybe two...
Cash
 No more shaming. 
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MessiToM
professor emeritus
Reged: 12/21/09
Loc: Huntingdon PA
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: SabiaJD]
#5606309 - 01/05/13 10:52 AM
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I have had the same experence a few times using only Clear Sky Chart for sky condition expectations. It is a good reference but should not be your only refernce.
Just today CSC indicated clear skies tonight, so I checked CSC hour by hour predictions for the day and compared it to weather satelite images from RAP.
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/
Then I compare both to NOAA Graphic Sky condition forecast.
http://graphical.weather.gov/
Select your region by clicking on the map.
NOAA and CSC were not the same, NOAA indicated clouds rolling in CSC clearing. RAP shows clouds moving in.
Fortunate today I could see the clouds arriving before sunset. Therefore I did not set out traveling to my observing site.
Using all of these tools helps to determine if sky conditions will be good for observing in a short term time period.
They also help you learn your seasonal weather patterns, the amateur astronomer second hobby. Put some trust in your local TV weathermen, follow how accurate they are vs. your own predications.
John D Sabia
Thank you very much. That NOAA site rocks.
YES I need an outdoor storage option, and yes there is a cost other than money Iam finding out.
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MessiToM
professor emeritus
Reged: 12/21/09
Loc: Huntingdon PA
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: MessiToM]
#5606313 - 01/05/13 10:54 AM
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You know last night when it was predicted clear I didnt set up out of spite (plus we weer going to see "The Hobbit") and it was clear! of coarse
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NeilMac
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 09/25/10
Loc: MedHat, AB, Canada
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: MessiToM]
#5606345 - 01/05/13 11:11 AM
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Last nights Typical sight.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8qV-kkIiSY
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csrlice12
Post Laureate
Reged: 05/22/12
Loc: Denver, CO
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: wky46]
#5606400 - 01/05/13 11:37 AM
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Quote:
Quote:
All I know is that if it's clear out, there'll be something else that needs doing; if it's a night I have free, all the clouds show up to celebrate......
Ain't that the truth! Beautiful clear evening tonight, but...I'm baby sitting 3, 4 and 7 yr. old girls til ten tonight. Maybe then, if only I can muster the strength
Maybe the three year old is too young, but the 4 yo and especially the 7yo....might be a good time to "sink the hook", give'em their first view of Jupiter.....also makes the babysitting thing more tolerable for all of you. Imagine the shock of the parents when their kids all want you as their next babysitter!!!
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wky46
Carpal Tunnel
Reged: 12/12/05
Loc: west Ky.
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: csrlice12]
#5606999 - 01/05/13 05:31 PM
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Actually, it's my 3 yr. girl who's very interested, I think she's hooked
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galexand
super member
Reged: 07/10/12
Loc: Bloomington Indiana
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: MessiToM]
#5609945 - 01/07/13 10:57 AM
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Yup! !@#$$$#$&^^$ happens to me all the time. That's why I bought a dinky little refractor. I set that thing up, and maybe stare at the bottom of the clouds praying for a sucker hole, and I still don't say "gee I put up a lot of work and waiting for nothing."
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drbyyz
sage
Reged: 11/04/12
Loc: Summerville, SC
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: galexand]
#5611118 - 01/07/13 11:01 PM
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This is the story of my life lately. The clear sky forecast failed me yet again tonight. On the other hand, the next 10 days say cloudy...so maybe a pleasant surprise for once?
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Raginar
Carpal Tunnel
Reged: 10/19/10
Loc: Rapid CIty, SD
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: drbyyz]
#5611209 - 01/08/13 12:05 AM
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Couple things I use as an aviator to predict what the weather is going to be for flying (and observing): METARs, TAFs, and the region radar/satellite picture: http://aviationweather.gov/
METAR: Type in your local airfield and you should find what you're looking for. this is essentially the 'now' weather. There is an option to 'translate' it so it looks like something a normal person can read . Great to use before you roll out to observe since it's present conditions.
http://aviationweather.gov/adds/tafs/java/
TAF: These are the predictions over a period of time. The times are in Zulu and should give you a fairly accurate prediction of what you can expect. Again, use the translate feature as it's written in a silly short hand.
http://aviationweather.gov/adds/tafs/java/
Radar/Satellite: The radar is good for finding convection activity in your region. I usually open to this screen: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/ and they have regional screens that provide you with cloud cover/convective activity so you can verify your MOA (or house) isn't going to see activity. In addition, you can get trends from the movement of storms/cloud cover as well.
All of these tools, plus CSC can be useful in determining the WX before you setup. Of course, all your preparations can still go to waste which is why I ended up with a ROR in my backyard... There is nothing more awesome than taking a chance on imaging, getting a few images and then running out to close the 'observatory' before the storm comes in.
Good luck!
Chris
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MessiToM
professor emeritus
Reged: 12/21/09
Loc: Huntingdon PA
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: Raginar]
#5611326 - 01/08/13 02:40 AM
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rooked again. Everything said tonight was going to be a "go". yes technically there were stars visible. Id give transparency a 1 of 5 where it was saposed to be 4/5
dang winter
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cadfour
member
Reged: 07/26/12
Loc: Melbourne, Florida
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Re: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice....(cloud
[Re: MessiToM]
#5611834 - 01/08/13 12:12 PM
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Wanna beat the system? Do what I do.
I always think to myself the entire day...’I will not go out tonight...I have too much to do.....just can’t do it...wont do it’....then....at sunset, using averted vision I look outside to see it’s completely clear. I run and grab my scope set it up out back and observer for 10 minutes till the clouds roll in. Works every time!
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