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WillCarney
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Really close NEO 2012 DA14 Feb-15-2013
      #5552139 - 12/03/12 02:22 PM

2012 DA14 (35-79m) has a very close approach on Feb-15-2013. It will get with in .09 LD or .0002 AU with a predicted magnitude of 7.7. That's below our GEOSync's.
William


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Centaur
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Re: Really close NEO 2012 DA14 Feb-15-2013 new [Re: WillCarney]
      #5563077 - 12/09/12 08:11 PM

Thanks for the heads-up, William. I've created a diagram depicting the positions of the asteroid, Earth and Sun as viewed from north of the ecliptic during the next few months. It can be seen at: www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids

EDIT: I've added an hourly ephemeris for 2013 FEB 15-16

Edited by Centaur (12/09/12 10:56 PM)


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Centaur
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Re: Really close NEO 2012 DA14 Feb-15-2013 new [Re: Centaur]
      #5563510 - 12/10/12 03:17 AM

Based on current JPL orbital elements for this little asteroid, I calculate that geocentric closest approach will be 0.00031497 AU on 2013 FEB 15 at 22:26:51 UT. At that time the asteroid will appear in the zenith during nighttime from the middle of the Indian Ocean at E 84° & S 19°. For that time and location the distance from the asteroid will be 0.00027348 AU (40,912 km) with an estimated brightness of magnitude +8.8. Book your cruise now while ship cabins are still available!

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Centaur
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Re: Really close NEO 2012 DA14 Feb-15-2013 new [Re: WillCarney]
      #5574154 - 12/16/12 01:18 PM

I've temporarily removed my preview graphics of NEA 2012 D14, since its osculating orbital elements will be greatly affected by its close passage to Earth. I've been in contact with Belgian celestial mechanics author Jean Meeus, who tells me that the orbit will remain somewhat uncertain until the asteroid comes closer, since it is currently hard to find in a rich star field.

I've also contacted Jean’s Italian friend Aldo Vitagliano, the creator of the Solex astronomical numerical integration program: http://main.chemistry.unina.it/~alvitagl/solex/ . He tells me that in the unlikely chance that the asteroid strikes Earth in 2026, the corridor will extend from the South Atlantic across Antarctica to the South Pacific. This morning he replied within a related thread in this forum titled “Gravity changing trajectory/speed questions”: http://www.cloudynights.com/ubbthreads/showflat.php/Cat/0/Number/5570752/page...


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Centaur
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Re: Really close NEO 2012 DA14 Feb-15-2013 new [Re: Centaur]
      #5576780 - 12/18/12 03:17 AM

Aldo Vitagliano gave me some data on asteroid 2012 DA14 to put into my copy of his Solex program. With its output and my self-made graphics software, I've created a view of the orbits of the asteroid and Earth from far north of the ecliptic plane. Do understand that the data is preliminary and subject to adjustment. Nevertheless, it's obvious that the orbit switches from one with a longer major axis than Earth's to a shorter one after close passage. The diagram can be seen at: www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids

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Dave Mitsky
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Re: Really close NEO 2012 DA14 Feb-15-2013 new [Re: Centaur]
      #5577713 - 12/18/12 06:19 PM

Additional information on 2012 DA14 can be found at these URLs:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news174.html

http://earthsky.org/space/asteroid-2012-da14-will-pass-very-close-to-earth-in...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/23/asteroid-2012-da14--earth-nasa-satel...

Dave Mitsky


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Centaur
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Re: Really close NEO 2012 DA14 Feb-15-2013 new [Re: Dave Mitsky]
      #5579476 - 12/19/12 07:33 PM

I’ve drawn a map that plots the locations on Earth where NEO 2012 DA14 will appear in the zenith as it zooms by our planet: www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids

Book your cruise to Sumatra now while ship cabins are still available.

I’ll remind everyone that predictions may be adjusted a bit during the coming weeks, but the little asteroid will not slam into the Earth.


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Centaur
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Re: Really close NEO 2012 DA14 Feb-15-2013 new [Re: Centaur]
      #5605961 - 01/05/13 02:43 AM

Another forum member asked me a question about this NEO in a private message rather than as a reply within this thread. He wanted to know if it would be visible from a specific location in Namibia which he plans to visit during February. Although I did answer him through the private message system, I am repeating my response below so that any readers in Africa will be aware.
_____________________

Please understand that the coordinates of the tiny asteroid have not yet been measured enough times to have high confidence in the accuracy of its positions and velocities. Aldo Vitagliano, the creator of the Solex astronomical numerical integration program, has provided me with 100 sets of data allowing for a reasonable distribution. The results that you see in my graphics are based on data that Aldo considers to offer the current nominal solution. I ran them through his Solex program to determine the most likely positions near the time of the asteroid’s closest approach to Earth.

With that caveat in mind, at the time of the asteroid’s estimated closest approach to the Earth’s center (21:24:42 UT+2), its estimated refracted altitude above your horizon would be only 0.4° while at azimuth 92.2°. You may have deduced from my map an altitude of 8° based on the comet being a great distance from Earth, which it will not be. It should set at 21:28. One hour prior to closest approach to the Earth’s center the estimates are an altitude of 7.4° and an azimuth of 133.3°. The Sun will have set at 19:38.

Enjoy your trip, but if it were me, I would not rearrange my schedule on the remote chance I might spot this asteroid.


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RedLionNJ
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Re: Really close NEO 2012 DA14 Feb-15-2013 new [Re: Centaur]
      #5608039 - 01/06/13 10:42 AM

Rather than the visibility from any one location on Earth (as the point of closest approach would, naturally, be visible from almost half the planet), I think the more interesting nature of this approach is the minor planet itself won't be visible from ANYWHERE at closest approach.

It will be inside the Earth's shadow cone.

Grant


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RedLionNJ
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Re: Really close NEO 2012 DA14 Feb-15-2013 new [Re: RedLionNJ]
      #5608406 - 01/06/13 01:40 PM

Quote:

It will be inside the Earth's shadow cone.




Actually, looks like (using Horizons) it won't pass through the shadow cone - the Sun/Target/Observer geometry is a few degrees off for this encounter.

Folks in or near the GMT timezone should have a great view of the whole pass. Wish I was there, on the evening of Feb 15!

Grant


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John Lowe
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Re: Really close NEO 2012 DA14 Feb-15-2013 new [Re: Centaur]
      #5616286 - 01/10/13 09:17 PM

2012 DA14 was just recovered and orbit improved. It will pass a little closer to the Earth than earlier predicted. Wow, from areas near Singapore the maximum magnitude will reach 6.9 with the asteroid almost overhead in the middle of the night.

John


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Centaur
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Re: Really close NEO 2012 DA14 Feb-15-2013 new [Re: John Lowe]
      #5616509 - 01/10/13 11:37 PM

Quote:

2012 DA14 was just recovered and orbit improved.





Thanks for the info, John. What is the source for the improved vector data?


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John Lowe
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Re: Really close NEO 2012 DA14 Feb-15-2013 new [Re: Centaur]
      #5617128 - 01/11/13 11:47 AM

MPEC 2013-A51 list the revised orbital elements for asteroids including 2012 DA14.
http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K13/K13A51.html
I use the IAU's Minor Planet Center website to generate ephemerides for 2012 DA14 from various locations on Earth....
http://www.minorplanetcenter.org/iau/MPEph/MPEph.html
The output will include the asteroid to observer distance in astronomical units along with the magnitude, RA/Dec coordinates, altitude, and azimuth. One may even suppress output times when sun is above horizon or object is below horizon.

John


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Centaur
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NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: John Lowe]
      #5617518 - 01/11/13 04:08 PM

Quote:

MPEC 2013-A51 list the revised orbital elements for asteroids including 2012 DA14.





Thanks for the fuller info, John. Last night I e-mailed Italian professor Aldo Vitagliano, the creator of the Solex astronomical numerical integration program. This morning he sent me the newly updated vectors of the asteroid for inclusion in Solex.

His new nominal solution indicates that the closest approach to the Earth’s center will occur at exactly the same time as the previous best estimate: 2013 FEB 15 at 19:25:49 TD (19:24:42 UT). However, the distance to the Earth’s center at that time is now estimated to be 34,112 km rather than the earlier estimate of 34,373 km. The point on Earth where the asteroid will be in the zenith at that time is in the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra at E 96.595° & S 6.238°. The previous estimate was E 97.153° & S 6.360°.

In both cases, the estimated greatest brilliance for the point on Earth closest to the asteroid is magnitude +7.0. Interestingly, both the current and previous estimates for Perth, Australia at the moment of closest approach to the Earth’s center are magnitude +6.9. Even though Perth will be a little further from the asteroid, from Perth’s perspective the asteroid will be nearer to opposition from the Sun which increases the illumination.

Aldo notes that while the new parameters are hardly different from the previous ones, the uncertainties have been dramatically reduced. He says that the chance of an impact with Earth in 2040 is now zero. He indicates that another close approach without impact will occur in 2046.

I've updated my related graphics at: www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids


Edited by Centaur (01/11/13 07:31 PM)


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NadirZen
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Centaur]
      #5635801 - 01/21/13 09:59 PM

Using Solex with orbital elements found on a NASA site, I got the same time for the closest approach but get a slightly different distance : 34,101 km. I am wondering if I followed the correct procedure. From the NASA data I created a .SLX file which I read into Solex 11.09 using option 6 Min bodies file and then, after setting adaptive steps, extended precision and order 18 integration, I did a search for a close spatial approach.
Note that Solex defaulted to DE406 and not the more recent DA421.
Your comments would be greatly appreciated.


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Centaur
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: NadirZen]
      #5635909 - 01/21/13 11:05 PM

Quote:

Using Solex with orbital elements found on a NASA site, I got the same time for the closest approach but get a slightly different distance : 34,101 km. I am wondering if I followed the correct procedure. From the NASA data I created a .SLX file which I read into Solex 11.09 using option 6 Min bodies file and then, after setting adaptive steps, extended precision and order 18 integration, I did a search for a close spatial approach.
Note that Solex defaulted to DE406 and not the more recent DA421.
Your comments would be greatly appreciated.




Welcome to the discussion group, NadirZen.

On January 11 Solex creator Aldo Vitagliano gave me vectors for 100 possible clones of the asteroid that fall within the realm of the possible deviation from reality by the nominal solution. Due to recent measurements, this was an update from an earlier set of 100 clones he had provided me. When the solution that Aldo considers nominal is put into the Solex routine for close approaches with adaptive step sizes, the minimum distance is 34,112 km at 19:25:49 TT/TD/ET or 19:24:42 UT. This is the same solution that I use for my graphics. I round the published distance on my graphics to 34,000 km due to allowance for error. In fact the range for the 100 clones is from 33,973 km to 34,284 km. Solex remained with DE421 for me.

Aldo occasionally contributes to this message board. His real name is his screen name. His e-mail address is on his website where he indicates inquiries are appreciated.

EDIT: I get the same results whether or not a higher integration order and extended precision are used. However, in the case of such a close approach, adaptive step size is important. Aldo warned me about that.

Edited by Centaur (01/24/13 08:11 PM)


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NadirZen
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Centaur]
      #5643353 - 01/25/13 09:00 PM

Thank your for your much appreciated answer.
I still have a lot to learn about Solex but find it fascinating.

Richard


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GlennLeDrew
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: NadirZen]
      #5669371 - 02/08/13 04:32 PM

At the zenithal passage during closest approach, what is the angular rate of motion? I'm curious if a handheld bino would unambiguously show motion against the stars?

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Ruimteman
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: GlennLeDrew]
      #5670248 - 02/09/13 07:54 AM

It will move at about 0.7 degrees per minute. This means it will need only 40 seconds to move the apparent diameter of the Moon. More info here:
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Operations/Spotting_an_ancient_asteroid


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Ruimteman
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Ruimteman]
      #5670301 - 02/09/13 08:43 AM

http://www.satflare.com/ seems to be a good site to calculate a map for observing this asteroid. Magnitude is 7.7 from Tokyo but the weather might not play along...

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Nick Rose
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Ruimteman]
      #5673175 - 02/10/13 10:12 PM

I know North America wont see it during closet approach but how can I figure out where and when I can see 2012 DA14 in North America.

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Centaur
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Nick Rose]
      #5673198 - 02/10/13 10:23 PM

Quote:

I know North America wont see it during closet approach but how can I figure out where and when I can see 2012 DA14 in North America.




Nick, for us it will appear north of the Big Dipper during the early evening, but will have dimmed to about the eleventh or twelfth magnitude.


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Darren Drake
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Centaur]
      #5674140 - 02/11/13 02:14 PM

Curt as a fellow Chicagolander do you have any way no acquire an ephemeris for us for this thing?? What evening is it visible near the big dipper???

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Centaur
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Darren Drake]
      #5674176 - 02/11/13 02:41 PM

Quote:

Curt as a fellow Chicagolander do you have any way no acquire an ephemeris for us for this thing?? What evening is it visible near the big dipper???




In the case of such a nearby object, Darren, as you seem to understand, a geocentric ephemeris or star chart is of little use on the day of closest approach. That's why you do not see them displayed on my website for this particular asteroid.

My general advice is to download my friend Aldo Vitagliano's free Solex astronomical numerical integration program: http://main.chemistry.unina.it/~alvitagl/solex . Aldo is an Italian professor and a member of this message board. Choose option "G" to enter your Geographic Coordinates, and then option "V" for Adaptive Stepsize which is necessary for such a close approach. Finally, choose option "T" for Topocentric (your location's) celestial coordinates.

For North Americans the asteroid will be dimly visible only by telescope north of the Big Dipper during the evening of 2013 FEB 15.

EDIT: See amended information two posts below.

Edited by Centaur (02/11/13 04:05 PM)


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cadfour
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Darren Drake]
      #5674191 - 02/11/13 02:58 PM

I have a few questions regarding this near "hit" asteroid.

1. Is it just a matter of time that this asteroid missed us? In other words, does the path of this asteroid actually cross the path of where "we were" or where "we are heading" by about 15 minutes? Does Earth actually cross it's path?

2. Which side is the asteroid on..the side we are heading or the side we are leaving?

3. If this asteroid actually does cross Earth's path, has anyone plotted where that path crosses on the face of the planet? For example, if the path of the asteroid were a laser, where would that laser hit the surface as we passed by?


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Centaur
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Darren Drake]
      #5674216 - 02/11/13 03:17 PM

Whoops, Darren, I just realized you will not have the data in Solex for asteroid 2012 DA14. Aldo had e-mailed that to me.

For my location in Arlington Heights, Illinois on 2012 FEB 15, below are the asteroid's coordinates.

18:00 CST RA 13:10:35.2 Dec N 74° 13' 52"
19:00 CST RA 13:38:25.2 Dec N 78° 04' 24"
20:00 CST RA 14:10:01.9 Dec N 80° 44' 11"
21:00 CST RA 14:45:39.9 Dec N 82° 37' 17"
22:00 CST RA 15:25:02.5 Dec N 83° 57' 20"
23:00 CST RA 16:07:02.5 Dec N 84° 52' 58"


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Centaur
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: cadfour]
      #5674264 - 02/11/13 03:35 PM

Quote:

I have a few questions regarding this near "hit" asteroid.

1. Is it just a matter of time that this asteroid missed us? In other words, does the path of this asteroid actually cross the path of where "we were" or where "we are heading" by about 15 minutes? Does Earth actually cross it's path?

2. Which side is the asteroid on..the side we are heading or the side we are leaving?

3. If this asteroid actually does cross Earth's path, has anyone plotted where that path crosses on the face of the planet? For example, if the path of the asteroid were a laser, where would that laser hit the surface as we passed by?




The overriding point is that the asteroid's orbit will be dramatically changed during its close passage of Earth as demonstrated in my overhead diagram: www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids . So its orbit cannot be permanently fixed in space, which renders it impossible to properly answer your question #1.

The asteroid will be passing from the south toward the north as it moves through its ascending node while slightly further from the Sun than the Earth. In other words, it will be passing the Earth on our night side while drifting from south to north as both objects maintain a similar pace as they orbit the Sun. The orbital change during passage will dramatically alter the asteroid's perihelion point as seen in my graphic. During this week the asteroid's heliocentric speed relative to the Earth will alternate among slightly faster, slower and faster as demonstrated by my same graphic. So any answer to your question #2 would involve ambiguities.

Your question #3 is addressed in my answer for #1.


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Darren Drake
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Centaur]
      #5674325 - 02/11/13 04:11 PM

Quote:

Whoops, Darren, I just realized you will not have the data in Solex for asteroid 2012 DA14. Aldo had e-mailed that to me.

For my location in Arlington Heights, Illinois on 2012 FEB 15, below are the asteroid's coordinates.

18:00 CST RA 13:10:35.2 Dec N 74° 13' 52"
19:00 CST RA 13:38:25.2 Dec N 78° 04' 24"
20:00 CST RA 14:10:01.9 Dec N 80° 44' 11"
21:00 CST RA 14:45:39.9 Dec N 82° 37' 17"
22:00 CST RA 15:25:02.5 Dec N 83° 57' 20"
23:00 CST RA 16:07:02.5 Dec N 84° 52' 58"




Since I am scheduled to work that night at the space center do you have the coordinates for later that night? 11:30 is about the soonest I can go for it...Thanks


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Centaur
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Darren Drake]
      #5674348 - 02/11/13 04:22 PM

Quote:

Since I am scheduled to work that night at the space center do you have the coordinates for later that night? 11:30 is about the soonest I can go for it...Thanks




After midnight the fast moving object will be dimmer than 13th magnitude. The forecast is for snow showers. Do you really want me to go through the rather involved effort again?


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cadfour
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Darren Drake]
      #5674407 - 02/11/13 04:41 PM

Thanks Curt. Your diagram and explanation helped me visualize the path of the asteroid. I understand now, it's not as easy as saying...."where would it have hit?"

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Darren Drake
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: cadfour]
      #5674448 - 02/11/13 04:57 PM

No need if it's that involved. Thanks

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Centaur
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Darren Drake]
      #5674457 - 02/11/13 05:04 PM

Quote:

No need if it's that involved. Thanks




"Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime."
Chinese Proverb

If you'd really like to know, Darren, then follow the directions I gave for downloading and using Solex. Aldo's e-mail address is on the Solex website. Ask him to e-mail you the file for Asteroid 2012 DA14.


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Centaur
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: cadfour]
      #5674514 - 02/11/13 05:37 PM

Quote:

Thanks Curt. Your diagram and explanation helped me visualize the path of the asteroid. I understand now, it's not as easy as saying...."where would it have hit?"




You’re welcome, Mike. Thanks for understanding. For Kepler, two-body calculations of celestial mechanics were easy. Add a third body, and it can become incredibly complex, almost chaotic. It gave Newton headaches.

For the major planets we have theoretical orbits for which we have formulae for making minor adjustments over time. For minor bodies, including Pluto, no long term theories have been devised for their orbits. We must rely on osculating orbital elements. Those are given for a particular epoch. The body’s position and velocity are then extrapolated relative to the Sun and nothing else. Those elements indicate how the body would move if the only two bodies in the universe were it and the Sun. In reality, the body quickly begins to deviate from the osculating orbit mainly due to the presence of planets. When a minor body gets really close to a major planet (such as asteroid 2012 DA14 this week) its osculating orbit and elements change quite dramatically. Of course those are always changing to some degree even when far from major planets. So this amplifies my mention of an asteroid’s orbit not being fixed in space.


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Unknownastron
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Centaur]
      #5675055 - 02/12/13 12:22 AM

Here is a link to the article on the asteriod pass from Sky and Telescope website:

http://www.skyandtelescope.com/observing/highlights/Asteroid-DA14-to-Zip-Past...

The article has a very rough chart showing the general direction, but it also has a link to JPL and gives the instructions how to create an ephemeris for your specific latitude and longitude. I hand plotted it on a chart. Old school, but it works.
Clear skies and clean glass,
Mike


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Ruimteman
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Unknownastron]
      #5675225 - 02/12/13 03:49 AM

How about trying the website I suggested earlier in this tread? All you have to do is input your location. It generates nice maps for you.

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*skyguy*
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Ruimteman]
      #5675951 - 02/12/13 02:20 PM

Quote:

How about trying the website I suggested earlier in this tread? All you have to do is input your location. It generates nice maps for you.




The "Visual SAT-Flare Tracker 3D" website is great! Thanks for the suggestion.

http://www.satflare.com/


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WillCarney
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: *skyguy*]
      #5677893 - 02/13/13 03:43 PM

I use Cartes du Ciel with current updates. It predicts the asteroid position rather well. Key is putting in your location and altitude. Even being 50 miles apart will change your sky position since this one's so close.

They are predicting partly cloudy which probably means total cloud cover for me. Just like today. Partly cloudy predicted but total cloud cover due to jets. William


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Tom Laskowski
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: WillCarney]
      #5678935 - 02/14/13 08:15 AM

100% chance of snow here Friday night but it will be lake-effect snow and we might have some breaks in the clouds.

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drbyyz
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Tom Laskowski]
      #5679137 - 02/14/13 10:37 AM

For those still looking for info on how to see this. Sky Safari pro/plus recently updated their predictions for it, so it should be pretty accurate to use. I may sit down later today and compare theirs with some other sites and see how they compare.

Other than that I'm looking forward to tracking this guy down tomorrow night. Will be mag 11+ and not moving terribly fast, but I'm sure I can wrangle it. I'd like to see motion through the eyepiece but it might be just on the verge of that, so a few field sketches should do it.


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Mark9473
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: WillCarney]
      #5679710 - 02/14/13 03:10 PM

Quote:

I use Cartes du Ciel with current updates. It predicts the asteroid position rather well.



Can you confirm that CdC takes into account the perturbations to the object's orbit by the Earth's gravity field at the moment of the fly-by?

If it's just a Keplerian calculation based on the current orbital parameters, it can't possibly be correct.


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WillCarney
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Mark9473]
      #5679826 - 02/14/13 04:21 PM

No idea how it's calculated. I don't have access to the source code. The FAQ and such does not mention it. It uses data elements from MPC for it's calculations. So I am hoping if CDC does not take in account the change MPC will update the data after close approach. Then I can download an updated file. Either way I use CDC to control the mount to find the asteroid. There was a bug reported specifically due to 2012DA14 and fixed but I can't read French to find out what the problem was. William

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Mark9473
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: WillCarney]
      #5679909 - 02/14/13 05:15 PM

Well I ran CdC just now and the results are not even close to what the JPL site told me last week. Went and checked the bug report you mentioned and it's not all clear to me, but either way I'm not going to install beta version 3.7 now just for this one thing; I can manage with the JPL output.

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Ruimteman
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Mark9473]
      #5680220 - 02/14/13 09:13 PM

The asteroid is just about lunar distance now over Antarctica. Coming in at 6.3km/second. Should start snowing here soon, but might just clear enough by tonight.

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Darren Drake
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Ruimteman]
      #5680339 - 02/14/13 10:33 PM

I ran the motion using skysafari pro. It spends the longest time near the Small Magellanic Cloud until about 6AM CST 2/15 and then really takes off. By noon its really moving like nothing else I've seen. By around 5 PM it pops up in the north and flies up to around the little dipper. To bad its gonna be cloudy here in Chicagoland.

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Nick Rose
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Darren Drake]
      #5680516 - 02/15/13 01:00 AM

It will be clear hear in the Bay Area so I will try and get a picture of it.

Whats the best way to capture it? Just park the scope in a area where DA14 will pass and just continue to take pictures until you see movement? I'll be able to do 200sec. unguided.


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leviathan
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Nick Rose]
      #5680571 - 02/15/13 02:02 AM

Today very bright bolid flew over Chelyabinsk in Russia:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7c-0iwBEswE

You can find a lot of videos on Youtube. Maybe that was some small part of 2012 DA14.


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core
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: leviathan]
      #5680585 - 02/15/13 02:26 AM

wow, even as coincidences go (2012 DA14 'herding' smaller bodies?), watching the various dash cam videos coming out now is a little disquieting.

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Ruimteman
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: core]
      #5680654 - 02/15/13 03:46 AM

http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/02/15/breaking_huge_meteor_expl...
This is by Phil Plait with lots of videos.


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WillCarney
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Ruimteman]
      #5680895 - 02/15/13 09:00 AM

The plots are all over the place. The Arlington position for 21:00 is 14 45 39, 82 37 17. NASA put's my Bloomington at 12 03 51, +42 32 and CDC puts it as 15 37 31, 84 11 51.

It's going to be cloudy at my location so it does not matter that much. But for future events it does. William


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Centaur
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Mark9473]
      #5682137 - 02/15/13 06:41 PM

Quote:


If it's just a Keplerian calculation based on the current orbital parameters, it can't possibly be correct.




Indeed, Mark, you are correct. Normally osculating orbital elements are just fine as long as the epoch is fairly nearby. In the case of Asteroid 2012 DA14 these fail miserably today. They assume Kepler’s two-body orbits: Sun and asteroid. In this case, elements for the epoch at a certain hour are not good for the next hour. However, it is this method that most sources are using. It results in great inaccuracies today.

For the positions I gave as viewed from Arlington Heights, Illinois, I relied on the Solex astronomical numerical integration program. That program does give osculating elements for any chosen epoch, but the positions I posted did not invoke those elements. Instead I took the hourly positions directly from numerical integration which ignores the method of Kepler. It continuously takes perturbations into account by relying on Newton’s two more basic force equations of motion and gravitation.


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Ebyl
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Centaur]
      #5682214 - 02/15/13 07:32 PM

I have no idea if this has been suggested elsewhere, but if you haven't already, check out NASA's Eyes on the Solar System. It's a real time interactive simulation of the solar system and a good number of the objects (man made and natural) in it.

http://eyes.nasa.gov/

2012 DA14 is one of the asteroids.


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Centaur
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: WillCarney]
      #5682456 - 02/15/13 10:08 PM

Quote:

The plots are all over the place. The Arlington position for 21:00 is 14 45 39, 82 37 17. NASA put's my Bloomington at 12 03 51, +42 32 and CDC puts it as 15 37 31, 84 11 51.





I only use JPL and MPC for the magnitude parameters of a minor body, unless Solex does not have the body in its data base. I just now checked and both JPL and MPC are using 2013 APR 18 as the epoch for Asteroid 2012 DA14. The updated solution date (this afternoon for JPL) only indicates when the accuracy of the elements was improved; it is not the epoch date. The epoch date is the moment for which it is assumed that everything disappears from the universe except the Sun and the particular minor body. Past and future perturbations are ignored. In the case of Asteroid 2012 DA14, that would result in substantial inaccuracies today, even if its coordinates are converted to topocentric (location on Earth’s surface).

Edited by Centaur (02/15/13 10:29 PM)


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Dave O
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Centaur]
      #5684649 - 02/17/13 05:31 AM

From Nick Rose in the other (now locked) thread ...

Quote:

Here is the animation I made from 100 images each are 10sec binned 1x1.

http://youtu.be/_kQivMIggwg





Awesome! Thanks so much for sharing!


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leviathan
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Reged: 11/29/11

Loc: Azerbaijan
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Dave O]
      #5684672 - 02/17/13 06:04 AM

I was lucky to observe it from Azerbaijan. I also made some animation from 30 sec photos:

http://astronomy.az/wp-content/gallery/solar/2012%20DA14.gif


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Nick Rose
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Loc: San Mateo, CA
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Dave O]
      #5685302 - 02/17/13 02:07 PM

Thank you Dave O for sharing my post from the other thread.

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PhilCo126
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Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Nick Rose]
      #5927638 - 06/18/13 02:17 PM

It looks like 2014 DA14 was moving 48 Arc minutes/ minute against the background stars... that's a full Moon every 45 seconds.

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