Telescope Reviews: The silence is deafening....

Otto, I was a moderator on Cloudy Nights for six years and I know that there is nothing against the terms of service of the site against discussing the quantifiability of potentiality. What we can't do (for good reason, because it just causes fights--trust me on this) is discuss theology. Since I will not be discussing theology, I'll try to explain Popper on potentiality.

So let's recall that for the position that I am proposing, which I find to be at least anticipated in Aristotle and verified by Popper, is that potentiality belongs to actual things and states of affairs.

I'd say that we do not have enough solid information with regard to extraterrestrial life to make any kind of probability calculation.

But to take Popper on Quantum Mechanics: while we cannot measure with certainty, say, the position and momentum of an electron, we can calculate an electron's probable location, where it most potentially may be at a given time. That's what the "cloud" orbital diagrams illustrate (some people interpret the clouds to mean that the electron actually is, simultaneously, everywhere in the cloud, and even everywhere in the universe because there is a non-zero chance that the electron could be in another galaxy—but I think that that is a useless interpretation).

But let's get down to less complicated situations. Consider a layer of ice over a pond. The thicker the ice, the lower the potential for it to crack when walked upon. The thinner the ice, the higher the potential that you'll get a cold dunk. This is potentiality that is real; it can kick and it kick back, as Popper puts it.

When it comes to the potential for "intelligent" extraterrestrial life, we have two probabilities to consider:

1. The probability of there being any.

and

2. The probability that we will ever make some sort of contact.

The purely statistical probability of (1) is extremely high due to the vastness of the universe, but that probability is meaningless without some sense of (2). And the probability of (2) is actually quite low precisely because of the vastness of the universe. Some people try to up the odds by assuming that really advanced technological beings will arrive at a way of surpassing the speed of light, but there is no evidence whatsoever to support that conjecture and all of our current knowledge is against it.

So, if you asked me, I'd say that it is likely that there is extraterrestrial life (even technologically advanced ET) but that it is unlikely that we'll ever know for certain. Beyond that there is no point, in my opinion, in trying to make arguments for or against.