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Achernar
Postmaster
Reged: 02/25/06
Loc: Mobile, Alabama, USA
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Re: Meet DA14's little brother?
[Re: Glassthrower]
#5700531 - 02/25/13 08:32 PM
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That makes this asteroid more hazardous because of the fact it will for the foreseeable futre spend most of it's time inside Earth's orbit around the Sun. That makes it hard to see, and therefore creates a possibilility it could come at us hidden in the glare of the Sun. By the time we realize it's coming, it could have already hit us just like Chelyabinsk Russia or Tunguska.
Taras
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groz
Carpal Tunnel
Reged: 03/14/07
Loc: Campbell River, BC
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Re: Meet DA14's little brother?
[Re: Achernar]
#5716386 - 03/06/13 01:25 PM
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I haven't done any math on it (yet), been to busy, but, there are plenty of scenarios that can link the two events, and account for the discrepancies in direction. To really nail it, one needs to know the velocity and trajectory of the impactor, prior to entering atmosphere, and that data wont ever be available. There are estimates, with some likely bounds, but, accurate data isn't going to come forth.
One thing I notice in most analysis, folks are treating this as a one body problem, when in fact, it isn't. Earth - Moon system is a two body system, and, if the leading chunk of debris had a close lunar encounter, velocity and trajectory could possibly appear entirely divergent from the trailing piece. I'm sure one can grind up the numbers and find a set of values to fit a solution that shows leading piece interacting with luna, and departing that interaction on a trajectory that impacts in russia.
Probabilities of such an encounter are probably astronomical, but, not any more astronomical than the two events being totally uncorrelated.
I'm with bill in flag on this one, a close encounter and an impact on the same day, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss, but instead, look hard for a possible way to reconcile the apparently differing trajectories.
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Jarad
Postmaster
Reged: 04/28/03
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Re: Meet DA14's little brother?
[Re: groz]
#5716556 - 03/06/13 02:33 PM
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I'm sure one can grind up the numbers and find a set of values to fit a solution that shows leading piece interacting with luna, and departing that interaction on a trajectory that impacts in russia.
Actually, I doubt that. Remember, DA14 was moving south to north. The moon orbits in the same plane that the earth rotates. So you would have to have the object pass the moon going north and swing almost 90 degrees to head towards earth's northern hemisphere. I don't think the moon has enough mass to swing an object moving as fast as both of these were that much.
Jarad
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StarWars
Mr. Postmaster Man
Reged: 11/26/03
Loc: Karma Chameleon...
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Re: Meet DA14's little brother?
[Re: Jarad]
#5716752 - 03/06/13 04:15 PM
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Closeup of the Russian asteroid.. You can see the plasma rolling off the rock.. 
High velocity and air friction = HOT! 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MK5VO9HAjs
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Glassthrower
Vendor - Galactic Stone & Ironworks
Reged: 04/07/05
Loc: Oort Cloud 9
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Re: Meet DA14's little brother?
[Re: StarWars]
#5717228 - 03/06/13 08:33 PM
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Closeup of the Russian asteroid.. You can see the plasma rolling off the rock..
High velocity and air friction = HOT!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MK5VO9HAjs
Just a quick heads-up. This video has been debunked. It is an older unrelated video of a missile test. It fooled me at first also. I saw an edited version that was shorter and only showed the zoomed sections, and the larger context was deleted out. But, it's actually an old video of a Russian missile test.
Best regards,
MikeG
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llanitedave
Humble Megalomaniac
Reged: 09/26/05
Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA
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Re: Meet DA14's little brother?
[Re: Jarad]
#5717406 - 03/06/13 10:19 PM
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Quote:
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I'm sure one can grind up the numbers and find a set of values to fit a solution that shows leading piece interacting with luna, and departing that interaction on a trajectory that impacts in russia.
Actually, I doubt that. Remember, DA14 was moving south to north. The moon orbits in the same plane that the earth rotates. So you would have to have the object pass the moon going north and swing almost 90 degrees to head towards earth's northern hemisphere. I don't think the moon has enough mass to swing an object moving as fast as both of these were that much.
Jarad
Absolutely. The types of gravitational gyrations required to separate two bodies into two different trajectories in such a way require far more pinpoint timing than a simple coincidental set of independent encounters do.
I think Occam has this one covered.
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StarWars
Mr. Postmaster Man
Reged: 11/26/03
Loc: Karma Chameleon...
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Re: Meet DA14's little brother?
[Re: Glassthrower]
#5717658 - 03/07/13 02:16 AM
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Quote:
Quote:
Closeup of the Russian asteroid.. You can see the plasma rolling off the rock..
High velocity and air friction = HOT!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MK5VO9HAjs
Just a quick heads-up. This video has been debunked. It is an older unrelated video of a missile test. It fooled me at first also. I saw an edited version that was shorter and only showed the zoomed sections, and the larger context was deleted out. But, it's actually an old video of a Russian missile test.
Best regards,
MikeG
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Glassthrower
Vendor - Galactic Stone & Ironworks
Reged: 04/07/05
Loc: Oort Cloud 9
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Re: Meet DA14's little brother?
[Re: StarWars]
#5718928 - 03/07/13 05:43 PM
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Don't feel bad Rich, I know one planetary scientist who shall remain unnamed, who was also fooled briefly by that same video.  It made me feel a little better when I heard that.
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deSitter
Still in Old School
Reged: 12/09/04
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Re: Meet DA14's little brother?
[Re: llanitedave]
#5720041 - 03/08/13 08:50 AM
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Jarad, Dave, and others :
I am glad you guys are here for the parts of this that make my head explode. I can imagine the details once you fine gentlemen explain the mathematics and dynamics at work. I am completely right-brained and have little grasp of numbers. Without the explanations you offer here, I'd just be imagining rocks hitting a windshield with little understanding of how.
Just wanted to say thanks for that.
Best regards,
MikeG
You can do this at home. And you don't have to be a math genius.
Years ago I used the code on this web site to construct a toy gravitational simulator in javascript.
It's "toy" in that it's relatively slow and that it only handles a few bodies at a time, but the calculations are rigorous and the gravitational interactions are correct. All I had to do was change the code from C to javascript and adapt it to a GUI for my browser.
I spent hours playing with different setups and watching it run. OK, a "normal" person might have found that kind of project tedious, but I was spending 3 hours a day on a bus commute and tedium was unavoidable. Anyway, you watch these kinds of things happen long enough, and the visualization starts to become intuitive.
And your friends start questioning your sanity.
I've gotten some of my best work done on bus commutes! I spent endless hours investigating Clifford algebras on a TI92+ calculator 
-drl
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