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llanitedave
Humble Megalomaniac
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Reged: 09/26/05

Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Ira]
      #5811960 - 04/20/13 10:18 PM

Why should we be? The paper gives no reason for us to come to that conclusion.

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Rick Woods
Postmaster
*****

Reged: 01/27/05

Loc: Inner Solar System
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Ira]
      #5813405 - 04/21/13 03:35 PM

Quote:

I believe Moore's Law had to do with the doubling of transistors on a chip, complexity in that sense.




No, Dave's right; it's about computer power and speed, not quantity of components. (Not that it really matters in this context.)

Quote:

I take the paper to be using it as a metaphor for speculation, rather than anything else. In any case, it is interesting to think that we may be the cutting edge when it comes to intelligence in the universe, assuming we aren't all there is. And, indeed, why not?




Jeez, what a depressing thought!


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llanitedave
Humble Megalomaniac
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Reged: 09/26/05

Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Rick Woods]
      #5814143 - 04/21/13 09:42 PM

Yeah,the thought that we might be "the pinnacle of creation" really IS depressing!

But I don't entertain that thought. Creation isn't a single peak with a pinnacle, it's a whole dang range of bouncing mountains!


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Ira
Carpal Tunnel
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Reged: 08/22/10

Loc: Mitzpe Ramon, Israel
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: llanitedave]
      #5815004 - 04/22/13 11:04 AM

The cynicism here is tres au courant but misplaced. Consider that in 400 years we have gone from using a telescope that you wouldn't give to a child today, to visiting these unimaginably far off places ourselves. Quite an accomplishment! As for ethical standards...well, we're not allowed to discuss that here.

/Ira


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Qwickdraw
Pooh-Bah
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Reged: 03/03/12

Loc: Ann Arbor, MI
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: llanitedave]
      #5815107 - 04/22/13 12:06 PM

Quote:

Yeah,the thought that we might be "the pinnacle of creation" really IS depressing!





Unless we find definitive proof otherwise, I find it very inspiring and puts us squarely in an accountable position that we need to take seriously.


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Pess
(Title)
*****

Reged: 09/12/07

Loc: Toledo, Ohio
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Ira]
      #5815527 - 04/22/13 03:28 PM

Quote:

Why are We the "Neanderthals"? Maybe They are. Why might We not be the leading edge of cosmic evolution? There's no evidence one way or the other, so why not?

/Ira




I think we are just one more step in an evolving evolutionary line.

Does anyone doubt that computers will become self-aware one day?

If true, in what way would a biological brain be superior to an artificial one? I can't think of a single aspect of biological intelligence that would trump over self-aware machines should (when) we make that throughout.

Once that genie is out of the bottle we become as irrelevant as the dinosaurs.

It is difficult to think of an IBM Cray 1200 rising up out of the primordial mud but they will likely supersede us nonetheless.

Pesse (Your reign is over you bags of mostly water!) Mist


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TL2101
professor emeritus


Reged: 09/17/10

Loc: Concord, Ca
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Pess]
      #5815687 - 04/22/13 04:52 PM

Carbon based life will evolve into silicon based life given enough time.

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Pess
(Title)
*****

Reged: 09/12/07

Loc: Toledo, Ohio
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: TL2101]
      #5817743 - 04/23/13 03:06 PM

Yeah, if you think about it interstellar flight is only impractical from the point of view of our lifespan measured against the length of any trip (even at near light speed).


However a being that can live for hundreds of thousands of years--say an AI lifeform, this would be trivial and space travel could be fairly routine for such beings.

Also fairly easy since the ship itself could be the being and therefore not reuqire all the add-ons and do-hickies us demanding little babies that are humans require.

Which begs the question: Where are all the Von Neuman devices that should be saturating the galaxy by now?

Maybe they favor the asteroid belts and avoid big gravity wells.

Pesse (Probably first sign would be moons of Jupiter going dark as they consume them) Mist


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PhilCo126
Post Laureate


Reged: 01/14/05

Loc: coastline of Belgium
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Pess]
      #5817764 - 04/23/13 03:15 PM

Dr Seth Shostak ... one of me heroes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9WxW2ktcKU


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Otto Piechowski
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 09/20/05

Loc: Lexington, KY
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Pess]
      #5817785 - 04/23/13 03:24 PM

Hi Pess,

You wrote, "Does anyone doubt that computers will become self-aware one day?"

Because of the n=1 issue, I see no reason to suspect or not suspect computers will become self aware. More simply, the evidence does not yet exist for me to make or deny this assumption.

However, I do agree with Bill Joy (Sun Micro-systems) who I believe said or wrote, if it should become the case our computers gain awareness, what we will then have is an entity with near infinite power and the moral self control of a three year old.

Otto


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Pess
(Title)
*****

Reged: 09/12/07

Loc: Toledo, Ohio
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Otto Piechowski]
      #5817859 - 04/23/13 03:55 PM

Quote:

However, I do agree with Bill Joy (Sun Micro-systems) who I believe said or wrote, if it should become the case our computers gain awareness, what we will then have is an entity with near infinite power and the moral self control of a three year old.





Pesse (Absolute Power corrupts abosutely.) Mist


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Ira
Carpal Tunnel
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Reged: 08/22/10

Loc: Mitzpe Ramon, Israel
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Pess]
      #5818486 - 04/23/13 07:27 PM

Has anyone had a computing device that lasted more than 10 years? (And here I am being generous.) So much for the lifetime of the smart machine.

/Ira


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Pess
(Title)
*****

Reged: 09/12/07

Loc: Toledo, Ohio
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Ira]
      #5819909 - 04/24/13 02:22 PM

Quote:

Has anyone had a computing device that lasted more than 10 years? (And here I am being generous.) So much for the lifetime of the smart machine.

/Ira




There is original code in Windows 8 that dates back to DOS.

Pesse (It is not the cranium, it is the syrup) Mist


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Otto Piechowski
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 09/20/05

Loc: Lexington, KY
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Ira]
      #5820790 - 04/24/13 08:48 PM

I believe Bill Joy's comment was based in part on the assumption that self-aware machines would be both able to repair themselves and replicate.

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llanitedave
Humble Megalomaniac
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Reged: 09/26/05

Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Otto Piechowski]
      #5820812 - 04/24/13 08:58 PM

Not to mention do regular upgrades.

I'm just hoping that our robotic overlords will be open-source.


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Mister T
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 02/01/08

Loc: Upstate NY
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: llanitedave]
      #5821346 - 04/25/13 06:46 AM

probably not

that is what killed the Borg.







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dickbill
scholastic sledgehammer


Reged: 09/30/08

Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Ira]
      #5821648 - 04/25/13 09:46 AM

Quote:

Has anyone had a computing device that lasted more than 10 years? (And here I am being generous.) So much for the lifetime of the smart machine.

/Ira




Only the code matters. The hardware is not important. The hardware can be designed to not last long and replaced often, or designed to last longer, but it's gonna have to be replaced anyways, soon or later.
How much of the original molecules or atoms we got at birth we still have after 50 years? not much, maybe none.


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Jarad
Postmaster
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Reged: 04/28/03

Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: dickbill]
      #5821734 - 04/25/13 10:19 AM

Reminds me of a song:

Code Monkey

Jarad


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dickbill
scholastic sledgehammer


Reged: 09/30/08

Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Jarad]
      #5821895 - 04/25/13 11:53 AM

...beside, once the hardware is in place, the code can be uploaded at the speed of light. The higher computing components could be dormant for hundred of years and assembled later to wake up and reach consciousness, that is, IF a machine can really be made self aware, repair itself and replicate.

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shawnhar
Post Laureate
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Reged: 06/25/10

Loc: Knoxville, TN
Re: Why "They" are not here yet new [Re: Jarad]
      #5822563 - 04/25/13 04:45 PM

Quote:

Reminds me of a song:

Code Monkey

Jarad



Awesome! I forgot about code monkey.

Hey this talk about computers being self aware.... Seems like intelligent beings might migrate to that...begs the question...If WE didn't make the machines that became self-aware, if THEY made them...Would we even be able to recognize these machines as self aware?
One other thing, since tech gets smaller and smaller, it seems possible that smart machines from another place would be so small we wouldn't even see them. (They've been exploring the same blade of grass in my backyard for 2 weeks now)
Seems more likely to me that machines will NEVER become self aware, (although will be programmed to mimic that) but we will download our conciousness into them, self-fulfilling our own sci-fi prediction of self aware machines..


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