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DeanS
Carpal Tunnel
   
Reged: 07/12/05
Loc: Central Kentucky
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: Alvan Clark]
#5215170 - 05/10/12 10:17 AM
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It would be interesting to see how the later dates affect it as well. But with the general decline it would be hard to judge that specifically.
I am surprised that last year was actually up. With the fires, and being later, I guessed it would have been down. I did not go mainly due to being later.
As for fuel prices, I think we are just getting use to pay out the butt for it. Who would have ever believed that getting gas for close to $3/gal is a good deal?
Not sure what it will take to get the younger people interested as this is an expensive, and time consuming hobby. Many young families would have a hard time doing this during these trying times.
However I WILL do my part and try to attend as many as I can
Thanks for the graph Bic!
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bicparker
Carpal Tunnel
Reged: 02/07/05
Loc: Plano, TX
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: Alvan Clark]
#5215312 - 05/10/12 11:40 AM
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Well, when gas prices are sharply lower it means the economy may be poor so it's a little complicated.
As for the general down trend, not sure it's lack of interest. I think there are more more star parties than there used to be. So, people may not go to TSP as much.
I have to say that TSP does seem to draw a fairly er... mature crowd. I've seen younger attendees at smaller local star parties.
Alvan, I think you hit the nail on the head saying "it's a little complicated". There are many more factors than just gas prices. As you mentioned as an example, gas prices going down can represent a depressed economy (i.e., lower demand against the supply). My concerns go more towards the overall condition of our hobby and the folks in it.
By the way, this isn't meant to pick on TSP. It is just that TSP's numbers are very visible (they publish them on their website), so we can extrapolate some useful and verified information. TSP isn't the only star party event that is seeing these declines in numbers. Several other similar events have as well, and several have seen much more severe declines. The mature crowds are prevalent in the hobby, not just at star parties. I have heard this from both S&T and Astronomy magazine editors who have been looking at their readership demographics and figuring out how to increase their numbers.
I think that when it comes to star parties, and I am talking about the extended star parties that are at remote dark sites for multiple nights, they are being impacted by several things:
- A general decline in the existing demographic that is getting older - A lower interest in younger demographics for various and many reasons (lack of infrastructure, lower disposable income, lower free time, increased difficulties bringing family members to event, et al) - As the population centers have become increasingly metroplex-centered in our country, it has become increasingly difficult to travel into more remote areas. - Lack of infrastructure in remote areas that are normally available in metro areas (cell phone service, Internet, food service, et al). - General economic malaise
Similar to what you have noted, I have seen at our local public star parties (held in town and are just a few hours long), a lot of younger attendees (and these are large numbers, it is not unusual to have 200+ at a fair weather spring party in the Dallas area). While that is only anecdotal, I think it does demonstrate the value of local convenience, even with horrifically light polluted skies.
The solutions are going to be in addressing some of the things above. It may require some events to restructure how they do things, what they offer in terms of activities, how they price their event, and many other things.
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Jeff Morgan
Post Laureate
   
Reged: 09/28/03
Loc: Prescott, AZ
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: bicparker]
#5216800 - 05/11/12 09:54 AM
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That is an interesting bit of work you came up with for TSP.
TSP is a very remote site, far removed from a base population. A better test of decline in the hobby would be an analysis of the RTMC event. It is relatively close to a large amateur population, so that would minimize the cost of transport as a factor.
Generally speaking, one can read magazines from 30 years ago and hear worries of a declining demographic. If that were true, none of us would be left now. It seems to me more of a "grass is greener on the other side" syndrome.
I suspect the continuing poor economy is more of a factor than an aging demographic.
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bicparker
Carpal Tunnel
Reged: 02/07/05
Loc: Plano, TX
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: Jeff Morgan]
#5216939 - 05/11/12 11:19 AM
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I think the TSP analysis, while representing only a single star party, is partly good for looking at gas price sensitivity since it is a remote site and a logical hypothesis would be how gas prices affect the attendance. And there are some who plan and run TSP who may think that the TSP analysis is especially important.
I agree with you that an event like RTMC would be also good to analyze for the sake of comparison. I also agree that the continuing poor economy is a factor (among others), but I haven't a basis for how much of a factor. Perhaps someone else could measure that (I've run out of numbers to play with!).
The declining demographic is quite real, though. I remember the same articles from 30 years ago and I think we are now seeing them come to roost. It takes a long time for aging trends to manifest themselves (in fact, the CDC/Census bureau trends I looked up use 30 year cycles). There is a significant aging trend in both the USA and the world (Center for Disease Control http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5206a2.htm) and doubtless it is affecting all sorts of groups.
The shifting demographics I am talking about, though, is more specific to those who go, or would be inclined to go, to major star parties in the USA. That is a bit more specific than all amateur astronomers. I am just saying that this is causing a real impact and and it should not be ignored.
Most importantly, I think it is necessary to understand as many factors as possible that can impact star party attendance, otherwise some important things could get ignored against the noise of transient events such as price fluctuations.
Edited by bicparker (05/11/12 11:19 AM)
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Faith_J
Sketcher Extraordinaire
   
Reged: 11/17/04
Loc: South coast of England
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: Jeff Morgan]
#5216961 - 05/11/12 11:31 AM
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I think that, when it comes to demographics, the same worries about a 'greying population' can be applied to any interest or activity. A lot of the older population have more time - and, often, more money on their hands and can indulge their interests more. Not all but a lot do.
Younger people have a lot of demands on their time, arguably as much as their parents do. Teenagers are a good example, by and large they have got the demands of school and exams and, when they're done with that there's work or university then work to take up their time. Not only that, there's the other, well-known, diversions for them. I was interested in astronomy (and other things) as a kid but, with school and also an unsupportive mother and stepfather ('unsupportive' is an understatement, they sneered), my interests fell by the wayside until I left both school and home. Supportive parents are the best thing for any hobby if young people are to be involved. I was 22 when I seriously took up astronomy, but I wished I'd kept it up throughout my teens, despite my mum and stepfather.
If you're an enthusiastic teen who is not yet old enough to drive (17 here in the UK) or doesn't own a car, then you have to rely on parents or public transport to get to meetings or star parties. If you have got parents who aren't interested in you and your hobbies and can't be bothered to drive you somewhere, or you have a public transport system that sucks (the public transport system here in the UK is decent except for rural areas where there is nothing. And forget late-night transport outside of the major towns and cities), then you're a bit stuck, which is enough to kill off the interests of all but the most stubborn person. The high gas prices can't be entirely blamed for parental non-interest; my mum was always refusing me lifts as 'It costs too much in petrol' and this was in the 1980s when fuel was relatively cheaper than it is now. We lived away from a bus route, so it was a case of 'Tough, too bad. You can't go'.
I have to confess that I am not a 'children person' (especially young kids) but when kids come along to our society and to events I make sure they get to look through the telescopes and be involved even if, in the inverse of the scenario I outlined above, they've been dragged along by enthusiastic or curious parents. You never know, a seed may have been planted. It might lie dormant for a while but may germinate later like mine did. I don't normally do outreach but, as I am doing a year-long stint as Chairman of our local astronomy society, I feel as if I should be!
I don't see many children at events like the Texas Star Party and the ones I do see, with the odd exception, are usually there as TSP forms part of the family vacation. Although I suppose that is as much to do with the academic year and term times as much as anything (as a non-US resident, I don't know the exact times of school vacations although I believe there's a vacation around June time).
Careers: 9 to 5 working isn't conducive to a hobby, especially one like astronomy, where the nature of the thing means late bedtimes, particularly in summer. Shift-work even less so. Apart from a stint in the armed forces when I was in my late teens and early 20s, I have not actually had any form of career (although I have been more or less continually employed apart from a brief period between 2001-2003), so I was able to indulge my interests. I work to live, not live to work and I believe that, as long as you earn enough to take care of your responsibilities (paying the rent and bills, etc) and have enough to pay for your hobbies then that's pretty good. I know so many career people - my sister, for one - who have no life because they work from 7am-7pm. Ok, it could be argued that you can have a life when you retire but who's to say you'll be fit and healthy in retirement, or that you can afford to indulge yourself? Or that you'll even live to have a decent length of retirement?
Families. My friends who have had families dramatically ceased any form of hobby activity or interests unless it was their kids. I am not saying there's anything wrong in that because, if you choose to have kids, then they have to be your priority (although people need some time to themselves as well). So, those who have children who are not yet grown up are also probably out of the equation until they are at least in their 40s. I never had a family, simply as it is not what I wanted (and still don't want) and would interfere with my life too much but I know I am in a (significant) minority.
So those kids and those younger adults who have young children of their own, who are not yet involved, may well be the amateurs of the future.
Women: For years, the burden of family life fell mostly on the woman and women weren't expected to have hobbies, unless it was boring stuff such as sewing, cooking and home-making (essential, yes, but not the stuff of leisure - at least, not to me!). Luckily times and attitudes have changed and there are a lot more women coming into astronomy. Even 20 years ago, when I got seriously into the hobby, the attitudes of some of the older male members of the community here in the UK was "Women? Appalling, they should know their place, which is in the kitchen". A shocking attitude, but fortunately expressed by a minority and now thankfully almost eradicated.
At TSP, there are a lot of well-known and talented women observers, the likes of Barbara Wilson, Amelia Goldberg and Kathy Machin, to name but three. They're not just there because their husbands are, they are there in their own right as observers. And, sometimes, the women are the ones with the biggest telescopes! That said, there is plenty of room for more.
I didn't mean to go on quite at length and if you got through that screed of verbiage then well done! It's just as I see the demographics situation.
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Unknownastron
professor emeritus
   
Reged: 04/06/05
Loc: CatsEye Observatory,Rural Sout...
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: Faith_J]
#5218179 - 05/12/12 01:59 AM
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Lots of good ideas here. I suspect gas prices do not have the main impact on star party attendance, as David (bicparker) has actually quantified for one star party. My experience is only anecdotal as well but I have noticed that while local membership at clubs in the Dallas and Houston areas has not gone down, the actual number of said members who attend TSP is down. The newer and younger members are going to local meetings and observing sessions but not many of them are going to TSP. It is interesting to see the general decline start about 10-12 years ago and I believe the main factor is not financial resources as much as time resources. About 15 years ago employers started cutting back on leave time and started expecting employees to work more hours with fewer days off per year. As Faith correctly points out family duties take just about all 'leisure time' of a person younger than mid-forties at least. Older people may be retired, or have seniority at work, or have leave time built up, in addition to actually having less family demands on time. We do want to look at what is keeping younger people from attending astronomy events requiring major travel but it does not seem that the price of gasoline is the most deciding factor. Clear skies and clean glass, Mike
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edwincjones
Close Enough
   
Reged: 04/10/04
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: Unknownastron]
#5218356 - 05/12/12 08:35 AM
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"we need to look at what keeps younger people from attending........"
If I were a younger person with a family with a mild interest in astronomy,
it would be hard to drag the family to a remote location for my only vacation of the year;
but far easier to go to a more exciting location for the outreach star parties;
like the Grand Canyon or Cedar Key, or other National Parks.
the commitment to dark sky star parties in remote locations would come later when I had more time
edj
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okieav8r
Carpal Tunnel
Reged: 03/01/09
Loc: Oklahoma!
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: bicparker]
#5218616 - 05/12/12 12:00 PM
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My next pickup truck is going to be a compressed natural gas vehicle. There are so many CNG stations being built these days that I am convinced that CNG is going to be a going thing soon, at least in my part of the country. They are popping up all over Oklahoma and getting more popular all the time.
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George N
Carpal Tunnel
   
Reged: 05/19/06
Loc: Binghamton & Indian Lake NY
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: okieav8r]
#5219481 - 05/12/12 10:58 PM
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Relative to the comments on demographics: at NEAF the editor of Astronomy mentioned that during his time at the magazine average subscriber age has gone from 32 to 52.
However, I think that the changing nature of amateur astronomy has changed who some of the “new people” are. CCDs, GoTos, etc, are bringing in 50+ year olds looking for a new ‘techie hobby’, or who are returning to astronomy after being frustrated years ago with ‘star hopping’ or poor equipment.
At the last major star party I went to I was set up next to two guys with a brand new C-14 EdgeHD on an AP 1200 mount, high end CCD camera, etc, and I soon realized that they were brand new to the hobby and had little idea how use all of their new toys. One guy said “No more wife… kids are thru grad school, and now it’s time for *dad* to play!” With a little help from others they did start to get the hang of imaging.
I believe that the average age of amateur astronomers is going up, but part of that is all of the ‘new folks’ just getting into the hobby at a later age.
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Tom Polakis
Pooh-Bah
   
Reged: 12/20/04
Loc: Tempe, Arizona
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: George N]
#5222132 - 05/14/12 03:22 PM
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I don't know how anybody can deny that the average age of amateur astronomers has increased dramatically in the past several decades. It is certainly the largest factor for reduced attendance at star parties.
The most graphic way to illustrate this is by simply looking at the photographs of amateurs in the magazines from the early 1980's. Most of these folks do not have gray hair; they didn't have to wait until retirement to pick up the hobby.
Go to a star party, conference, or astronomy club meeting today, and nearly everybody is over 50, with many well past 60. This the the representative demographic. Contrary to wishful thinking, there is not a burgeoning crop of youngsters coming to replace the elderly majority.
Of course increasing fuel prices play a role in travel plans, but it's not the primary reason that the number of active amateur astronomers diminishes year after year.
I am speaking only for the United States, by the way. I think the percentage of young amateur astronomers is higher in other countries.
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Alvan Clark
sage
Reged: 03/13/10
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: George N]
#5240320 - 05/26/12 08:44 AM
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Relative to the comments on demographics: at NEAF the editor of Astronomy mentioned that during his time at the magazine average subscriber age has gone from 32 to 52.
Isn't that probably true of newspapers and other periodicals? I've even seen old timers here renounce their subscriptions because they say they can get the same information elsewhere.
If this aging thing is true though, there is a positive way to look at it. Imagine all the great telescopes hitting the used market over the next 10-15 years.
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George N
Carpal Tunnel
   
Reged: 05/19/06
Loc: Binghamton & Indian Lake NY
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: Alvan Clark]
#5241952 - 05/27/12 10:39 AM
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......the magazine average subscriber age has gone from 32 to 52.
........ If this aging thing is true though, there is a positive way to look at it. Imagine all the great telescopes hitting the used market over the next 10-15 years.
By then I'll be too old to need one.....
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edwincjones
Close Enough
   
Reged: 04/10/04
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: George N]
#5243866 - 05/28/12 12:52 PM
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I drove 600 miles one way for the Annular Eclipse. Gas prices ranged from $3.21-3.75/ gal. I did not think about gas prices while watching the eclipse; I will see the gasoline prices come and go, but probably will never see another annular eclipse
edj
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Jeff Lee
professor emeritus
Reged: 09/17/06
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: operascope]
#5264046 - 06/09/12 10:10 PM
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I feel pretty lucky in that I have a reasonable dark site less than 35 minutes from where I live, and that OSP or the Rose City SP at Maupin are just a full tank for me (running on fumes if I don't fill up on the way home).
I go to one other club party, so I make 4 to 6 sP's a year and if its only club stuff probably less than $300 in gas.
My biggest decision was not to get a trailor and just sleep in my Jeep. Since my wife doesn't go and there are always "facilities", I don't care as I'm just there to view. I really wanted a trailor but that would have ment a jeep with a bigger motor and the trailer....just not for me right now. So I'll go to the parties still but just not in the same fashion, also I might skip OSP this year.
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Cotts
Just Wondering
   
Reged: 10/10/05
Loc: Toronto, Ontario
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: Jeff Lee]
#5264508 - 06/10/12 10:29 AM
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I imagine that one factor that has an effect on people at star parties is the comfort of the accommodations. TSP offers 'motels' and 'bunks' but there are certainly not enough to go around. Okie-Tex also has a very limited number of bunks. WSP has 'Chickees' but, again, not nearly enough to go around. Stellafane is quite clear in noting that their camping is 'primitive' with no electricity or water. The vast majority of star party attendees must either own an expensive RV (not many people can afford) or camp in a tent.
The older one gets the more freedom to attend week-long events one has. On the other hand the older one gets, the less able and/or willing one is to camp in a tent, sleeping on the ground or in the back of a mini-van.
I doubt the big star parties can do anything about providing more 'luxurious' accommodations so older people are starting to think twice about attending.
Dave
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edwincjones
Close Enough
   
Reged: 04/10/04
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: Cotts]
#5264924 - 06/10/12 03:35 PM
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as an "older one" with an RV, I do not think that tent or RV makes that much difference to ME, but it does to my WIFE
edj
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JimMo
I'd Rather Do It Myself
Reged: 01/08/07
Loc: Under the SE Michigan lightdom...
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: Cotts]
#5265040 - 06/10/12 05:03 PM
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Hi Dave,
Before WSP '09 I bought a camping cot to use in my tent. I brought an extra cloth sleeping bag to use as a "mattress" and I was very comfy there in the Keys and at last years Oki-Tex with the same set up. I'm getting a new tent this year for a bit more room inside but the cot works well and you then have the storage area underneath it for clothes, extra OTAs, etc. My wife doesn't camp anymore and hasn't in 10 years since our last family camping trip. Her idea of roughing it nowadays is not having a jacuzzi in the hotel, but we now have a newlywed daughter and son in law who are broke and want to go camping and guess who said it would be fun? Twenty nine years and she still mystifies me.
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edwincjones
Close Enough
   
Reged: 04/10/04
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: JimMo]
#5265774 - 06/11/12 06:45 AM
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............Twenty nine years and she still mystifies me.
44 for me this week-a very good summary of marriage
edj
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Unknownastron
professor emeritus
   
Reged: 04/06/05
Loc: CatsEye Observatory,Rural Sout...
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: edwincjones]
#5270634 - 06/14/12 03:09 AM
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Almost 37 for me and if she ever stops mystifying me, I'll start to worry. As to age and accommodations, I'm in full agreement. I don't attend the Nebraska Star Party because it would be too hot for me to try and sleep during the day. If it gets too hot during the day, I have to take air conditioning breaks. This is not wimpiness, I actually still like hot weather but my heart condition will not allow me to participate as I would like. Any star party without some type of air conditioned bunkhouse is just out for me. Clear skies and clean glass, Mike
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edwincjones
Close Enough
   
Reged: 04/10/04
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Re: ?$4/gal gas (US) and star party attendance 2012?
[Re: Unknownastron]
#5271430 - 06/14/12 03:06 PM
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my thoughts are to spend the nights at the observing site, then return to campground/motel during the day for air and sleep
edj
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