oldsalt
Astro Philosopher
Reged: 02/12/05
Posts: 8011
Loc: Pa - between starparties
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It would apear that the GW debate is not going to be anywhere near over yet. Counter Documentary. unfortunately, we probably will not see it run here anytime in the near future. It would be interesting to see the differences between the 'documentaries'.
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There are no winners in war, only bigger loosers.
Jim
Edited by LivingNDixie (09/06/07 09:06 AM)
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erik
telescope surgeon
Reged: 01/30/04
Posts: 24058
Loc: Hawaii 19 N lat -155 Long.
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A bit of information on the director of that documentary, Martin Durkin:
http://www.gmwatch.org/profile1.asp?PrId=39
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-Erik Wilcox
Homebuilt 16" Truss Dob
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oldsalt
Astro Philosopher
Reged: 02/12/05
Posts: 8011
Loc: Pa - between starparties
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I'm more interested in the content.
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There are no winners in war, only bigger loosers.
Jim
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MMICKELS
Aluminum Knight
Reged: 01/20/04
Posts: 25451
Loc: The Land of Shake and Bake
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Interesting link Jim. It's got that chicken and egg thing going on with C02.
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Mark
"Never eat more than you can lift"
Miss Piggy
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erik
telescope surgeon
Reged: 01/30/04
Posts: 24058
Loc: Hawaii 19 N lat -155 Long.
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I'd be interested in the content as well, if it was coming from a believable source, without a history of distorting the facts. I'd like to see an open debate between scientists and climatologists, but the fact is that very few respected scientists believe that GW isn't real. I'm open to a view that's different from what I believe, because I sure don't understand a lot of the data, but the view that GW isn't real, or caused by humans, doesn't seem feasible to me. At least, not based on the mountain of evidence that would suggest the contrary. Where are all the scientific papers disputing GW?
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-Erik Wilcox
Homebuilt 16" Truss Dob
SV 80mm ED Nighthawk NG on M1 ALT/AZ
Nikon Prostaff 65mm spotter on Trekpod
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oldsalt
Astro Philosopher
Reged: 02/12/05
Posts: 8011
Loc: Pa - between starparties
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No one is disputing that the climate is warming. The mechanism of change however is disputable.
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There are no winners in war, only bigger loosers.
Jim
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erik
telescope surgeon
Reged: 01/30/04
Posts: 24058
Loc: Hawaii 19 N lat -155 Long.
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There are still some that dispute that GW is even happening, though they're few and far between as of late. I agree though, the debate on the cause is a valid one, though there does seem to be a consensus, or at least an overwhelming majority of scientists that believe humans are at least partially to blame. I'm just not sure what can be said that wasn't already said in the previous thread on GW, which was over 20 pages long and 500+ posts... 
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-Erik Wilcox
Homebuilt 16" Truss Dob
SV 80mm ED Nighthawk NG on M1 ALT/AZ
Nikon Prostaff 65mm spotter on Trekpod
Konusvue 20x80 binos/Peterson pipemount
Orion 10x50 binos
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Mirador 60mm f/12 1960's refractor
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oldsalt
Astro Philosopher
Reged: 02/12/05
Posts: 8011
Loc: Pa - between starparties
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ther is so much that no one knows about what drives the climate on this planet, that we may never find out in our lifetime if this is a cycle, a blip in the climate, a naturalchange or manmade. Scientists can draw inference and conclusions, but the proof is going to remain elusive for a long time. Once they can prove what is happening, then the question becomes does something have to be done, or can anything be done about it.
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There are no winners in war, only bigger loosers.
Jim
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erik
telescope surgeon
Reged: 01/30/04
Posts: 24058
Loc: Hawaii 19 N lat -155 Long.
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Quote:
the question becomes does something have to be done, or can anything be done about it.
...Or would it be too late to do anything by then?
That's my thinking- why risk it? We should take precautions.
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-Erik Wilcox
Homebuilt 16" Truss Dob
SV 80mm ED Nighthawk NG on M1 ALT/AZ
Nikon Prostaff 65mm spotter on Trekpod
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Mirador 60mm f/12 1960's refractor
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llanitedave
Humble Megalomaniac
Reged: 09/26/05
Posts: 10918
Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA
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The "what, if anything, can be done" debate is what raises hackles. Whether GW is happening or is not, is man-made or is not, is all academic unless it has real-world implications for ourselves or our descendants.
The problem is that the effects of this particular phenomenon may get lost in the noise of all the OTHER effects we are imposing -- or experiencing -- on this planet.
What can we do about it?
I think you all know my particular soap box -- good for warming, cooling, deforestation, or acidification. One cure for a whole range of effects.
Whether it's medicine that the world will take willingly remains to be seen.
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"S.O.E." (Sauron's Other Eye) 16" Royce conical mirror: A permanent work in progress.
10" Homebuilt dob, old Coulter mirror
Next Project: The "Eye of Sauron" Observatory!
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BooBoo
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 05/21/06
Posts: 1157
Loc: Tarzana, California, USA
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It's all moot anyway. The next eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano will make all the pollution in the history of man look like nothing more than a fragrant burp.
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BooBoo
aka Barry
"Mortal as I am, I know that I am born for a day. But when I follow at my pleasure the serried multitude of the stars in their circular course, my feet no longer touch the earth." - Ptolemy
Orion SkyQuest XT8 Classic Dobsonian
 Griffith Observatory, Los Angeles, CA
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erik
telescope surgeon
Reged: 01/30/04
Posts: 24058
Loc: Hawaii 19 N lat -155 Long.
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I'm prepared. I saw the tutorial on South Park. If a big volcano erupts, and lava is coming your way, just "Stop, drop, and roll." That'll save ya! 
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-Erik Wilcox
Homebuilt 16" Truss Dob
SV 80mm ED Nighthawk NG on M1 ALT/AZ
Nikon Prostaff 65mm spotter on Trekpod
Konusvue 20x80 binos/Peterson pipemount
Orion 10x50 binos
Homebuilt 80mm f/5 refractor
Mirador 60mm f/12 1960's refractor
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square_peg
Postmaster
Reged: 03/26/04
Posts: 24539
Loc: Maple Valley, WA
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It'll be interesting to see the reviews of this documentary.
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Tom (Pegster)
DSH-8 (GSO Dob)
15x70 Oberwerks
SVP 100 f/6 achro
WO 66 Petzval
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History is Philosophy teaching by examples.
Thucydides
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MMICKELS
Aluminum Knight
Reged: 01/20/04
Posts: 25451
Loc: The Land of Shake and Bake
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I'll try to get my step son to tape it for me.
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Mark
"Never eat more than you can lift"
Miss Piggy
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LittleDob
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 12/10/04
Posts: 1443
Loc: Here or there
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Yawn,
Yet another misconception given voice by the media.
CO2 lags temp in the ice core records because the initial forcing is from orbital dynamics (the Milankovitch Cycles). CO2 then amplifies the signal and enhances the warming. One of America's top paleoclimatologists, William Ruddiman described this process in detail. IF the documentary does not include significant discussion with Ruddiman, then toss it into the rubbish bin..
Sorry folks, rehashing the CO2 lag/lead debate is not going to change anything.
What I still don't understand is how those scientists who actually worked on the recovery and analysis of the ice cores, and whose interpretation we rely, have their voices drowened by the howls of protest by those who seem to think there is a conspiracy of lies.
As mentioned in the marathon thread on global warming, now locked down, to suggest that the GW scientists are lying implies that they are purposefully decieving the public. I don't believe that to be the case.
Jason
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Jason
"Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice." Will Durant
NexStar 11 GPS 
Edited by erik (03/04/07 10:28 PM)
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Scott Horstman
Vendor- Backyard Observatories
Reged: 03/11/04
Posts: 5172
Loc: Lodi Ohio USA
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Likewise I don't believe skeptics of "man is causing GW" are intentionaly lying either. But it's OK for the proponants to make this claim. But not visey-versy.
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Scott.
12.5" f/8 Cave, 8" f/8 Edmund, 6" f/10 Jaegers, Meade 102ED.
My Gallery
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Jeremy@za
professor emeritus
Reged: 02/28/05
Posts: 704
Loc: Cape Town, South Africa. 33 56...
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Jason, I believe that the heart of the issue is that the people who actually understand climatology and how it works are so busy trying to work out what's actually going on that they just don't have the time it would take to dumb it down to the point where ordinary people can understand the mechanics.
Another good example is the Evolution debate - the bonus that the pro-evolution side has is that it has Richard Dawkins acting as a very vocal PR person.
Stephen Hawking and Richard Feynmann did something similar for Physics,and Carl Sagan did the same for Astronomy and Astrophysics.
In a year or two I reckon one or two erudite and well-spoken scientists will step forward as the de-facto spokespeople for the human-caused global-warming debate. At the moment there are just too many people screaming for any sense to come of it.
hope this didn't offend anyone
J
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oldsalt
Astro Philosopher
Reged: 02/12/05
Posts: 8011
Loc: Pa - between starparties
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the best way to look at all the debate is like a trial. Only the facts can be introduced into evidence, and right now there is just to much speculation on both sides. Each points fingers at the other condemning who funded them and trying to tear apart the research. There is valid study being done by both sides.
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There are no winners in war, only bigger loosers.
Jim
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LittleDob
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 12/10/04
Posts: 1443
Loc: Here or there
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Quote:
the best way to look at all the debate is like a trial. Only the facts can be introduced into evidence, and right now there is just to much speculation on both sides. Each points fingers at the other condemning who funded them and trying to tear apart the research. There is valid study being done by both sides.
We keep coming back to the question of balance and the need to have contrarian views heard. Contrary to what many believe, the mechanisms of climate change are a scientific debate, not a political one. The science must be presented in peer-reviewed literature. Within the scientific community, there remains little doubt that humans are enhancing the current warming trend. Why is it we always here the contrarian view from those outside the peer-reviewed scientific community?? Why no links to the scientific literature??? Without scientific scrutiny, bringing this evidence to trial amounts to hearsay. I don't mean this to sound disrespectful to those with opposing views. I'm simply asking for evidence that has been evaluated, checked, scrutinized by the peer-reviewed scientific processes.
The "valid" research by the opponents seldom becomes published because it cannot withstand scientific scrutiny. There is no conspiracy here.
With respect to the initial post, we are here debating the battle of the documentaries. Why no links to published, peer-reviewed, scientific journals??????
Sticking to the science, the initial posts refers to the CO2 lag recognized in the ice core records. This is not some new revelation that will rock the climate world... Paleoclimatologists have known this for years and have explained why such a relationship should exist.
Secondly, they claim the CO2 rise is from degassing of the oceans, which is entirely unsupported by the isotopic evidence that clearly indicates the CO2 is from anthropogenic sources. It also dismisses the fact that the oceans are a CO2 sink and continue to acidify. Third, they claim that the ice falling from glaciers is just spring break-up!!! Anyone who has been on a glacier recently knows that this is a lark. Ever been to the Athabasca glacier?? There are sign posts erected at the terminus over the last century. The recession is NOT just spring break up.
Quote:
Likewise I don't believe skeptics of "man is causing GW" are intentionaly lying either. But it's OK for the proponants to make this claim. But not visey-versy.
Umm, but the link in the initial post begins by saying proponents are liars...
Jason
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Jason
"Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice." Will Durant
NexStar 11 GPS
Edited by LittleDob (03/05/07 12:45 PM)
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oldsalt
Astro Philosopher
Reged: 02/12/05
Posts: 8011
Loc: Pa - between starparties
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With all due respect if you are to believe the current concensus, If we stopped putting CO2 into the atmosphere today, it would take how long to reverse the trend ? The fact is CO2 is just one factor, and the only one we may have control over to any extent. There are many more factors at work that drive the climate, and Nature always has a habit of trumping man.
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There are no winners in war, only bigger loosers.
Jim
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LittleDob
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 12/10/04
Posts: 1443
Loc: Here or there
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Quote:
With all due respect if you are to believe the current concensus, If we stopped putting CO2 into the atmosphere today, it would take how long to reverse the trend ? The fact is CO2 is just one factor, and the only one we may have control over to any extent. There are many more factors at work that drive the climate, and Nature always has a habit of trumping man.
YES!! But that is the point! All of the currently known drivers of climate have been quantified (you can question the methodology here and whether all mechanisms were adequately accounted for - that is why the IPCC said "very likely" and why there can never be proof in science, just failure to disprove) and the forcing translated to a predicted temperature. The result is that natural forcings are unable to account for the observed warming trend!!! There is another forcing involved.
This means that the natural trend is being enhanced by human activity. It is essential to note that no one is dismissing the natural forcing mechanisms. On the contrary, much work is focused on improving our understanding of these mechanisms and their impact on climate change.
BTW, if anthropogenic CO2 had not been released
overdue glaciation?
Jason
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Jason
"Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice." Will Durant
NexStar 11 GPS
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LittleDob
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 12/10/04
Posts: 1443
Loc: Here or there
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Sorry duplicate post..
Jason
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Jason
"Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice." Will Durant
NexStar 11 GPS
Edited by LittleDob (03/05/07 01:46 PM)
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Tom Trusock
Reged: 02/26/02
Posts: 27788
Loc: Alternate Reality (TM)
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Quote:
I'm prepared. I saw the tutorial on South Park. If a big volcano erupts, and lava is coming your way, just "Stop, drop, and roll." That'll save ya!
I figured Duck and Cover was the way to go. Heck, if it works for nukes, it should work for just about anything.
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A mans greatest contribution lies in those he leaves behind.
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LivingNDixie
Lord of Ferrets
Reged: 04/23/03
Posts: 15918
Loc: Hoover, AL
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Post deleted by LivingNDixie
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Preston
Celestron 11" Nexstar GPS XLT
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RRaubach
AstroCowboy
Reged: 01/26/05
Posts: 2173
Loc: Douglas (Converse County),WY
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Here's an interesting tidbit:
On a recent road trip from my home in Wyoming, I stopped by several institutions to visit former mentors and colleagues. Such places as Bozeman, Missoula, Coeur D'Alene, Portland, and Corvallis. I asked four other Ph.D. scientists of repute about their *take* on *Global Warming*, and NONE of them bought the Greenhouse Gases model. One of the professors, who asked or anonimity, stated that it was very difficult to get journals to accept contrarian view manuscripts, and that the doctrine of *political correctness* prevails!
I found this to be interesting.
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Rodger
Meade SN-10 (UHTC) on Tak EM-200 mount/Antares rotating rings. Moonlite focuser.
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LittleDob
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 12/10/04
Posts: 1443
Loc: Here or there
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Quote:
Getting back to the original topic of a new global warming movie. I found some more information here.
I think this is the best part though:
Martin Durkin, for his part, achieved notoriety when his previous series on the environment for the channel, called Against Nature , was roundly condemned by the Independent Television Commission for misleading contributors on the purpose of the programmes, and for editing four interviewees in a way that "distorted or mispresented their known views". Channel 4 was forced to issue a humiliating apology...
The ITC link sounds very similar a British version of an FCC.
Relying on the information in the initial link, it appears this latest documentary will also be misleading. Again, the three points he raises:
1) CO2 lags d18O
2) Oceans degassing
3) Glacier melting just spring thaw
are all highly misleading and do not accord with the data.
Jason
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Jason
"Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice." Will Durant
NexStar 11 GPS
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LesB
Carpal Tunnel
Reged: 12/20/04
Posts: 1698
Loc: Z-Hills, FL
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The net has a lot of stuff.
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=2f4cc62e-5b0d-4b59-8705-fc28f14da388
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"The genius of humanity is to establish an identity which lies at an ever-increasing distance from our organic nature." Ray Tallis
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half meter
Postmaster
Reged: 05/05/04
Posts: 12558
Loc: Great Lakes
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Quote:
The result is that natural forcings are unable to account for the observed warming trend!!! There is another forcing involved.
No other mechanism currently explains the warming. Without another candidate, greenhouses gases necessarily become the cause, whether appropriate or not.
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Gary
Collins I3 (Thin Film) Image Intensifying Eyepiece
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