Telescope Reviews: Kid corrects Asteroid Collision Prediction (not!)

Someone sent me a link to this:

BERLIN (AFP) - A 13-year-old German schoolboy
corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an
asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper
reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had
miscalculated.

Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the
Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to
calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the
Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the
Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in
45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European
Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it
right.

( above from
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080415/sc_afp/spaceastronomygermany_080415214429
)

Or maybe not - something sounds fishy. From

http://www.universetoday.com/2008/04/16/latest-news-on-apophis-13-year-old-boy-corrects-nasas-estimates-of-earth-impact/

"...Update: It turns out this story is a fabrication
and AFP didn't check the facts with NASA as I
suspected. According to the blog Cosmos4u, they talked
with Don Yeomans at NASA's NEO office and this is what
Yeoman's said about the news story of a 13-year old
boy correcting NASA's estimates of Apohpis impacting
earth: "We have not corresponded with this young man
and this story is absurd, a hoax or both. During its
2029 Earth close approach, Apophis will approach the
Earth to about 38,900 km, well inside the
geosynchronous distance at 42,240 km. However, the
asteroid will cross the equatorial belt at a distance
of 51,000 km - well outside the geosynchronous
distance. Since the uncertainty on Apophis' position
during the Earth close approach is about 1500 km,
Apophis cannot approach an Earth satellite. Apophis
will not cross the moon's orbital plane at the Moon's
orbital distance so it cannot approach the moon
either. "

and according to the wikipedia article at

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis :

"...Nico Marquardt, a 13-year-old from Germany,
produced a new collision estimate of 1 in 450 in April
2008. He took into consideration the possibility of
Apophis running into one or more of the geosynchronous
satellites orbiting Earth during its flyby on April
13, 2029. This estimate was reported as being accepted
as valid by the ESA and NASA.[16][17] However, an ESA
spokesman stated that Marquardt's estimate is
incorrect.[18] According to NASA, the angle of
Apophis's approach to the Earth's equator means the
asteroid will not travel through the belt of
geosynchronous satellites, so no such collision can
occur.[19]..."

More at

http://cosmos4u.blogspot.com/2008/04/apophis-risk-not-increased-science-fair.html

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Apophis risk not increased: science fair judges, world media screw up big time

First the story appeared on April 4 in Germany's 'leading' tabloid ("I have calculated the end of the world ... and NASA says, I'm right"), later in more serious papers ("Nico and the end of the world") - and today, thanks apparently to an AFP story where the writer hadn't found it necessary to check anything, it has taken off around the world. Alas: it's absolute nonsense!

More at above link...