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Michael A. Earl
vendor- Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
Reged: 11/17/08
Posts: 1113
Loc: Brockville, Ontario, Canada
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The story is here
I have several problems with reports like this. Since the satellite collision of February 10, 2009, all I have heard is talk. It seems that every week or so someone has a report about the dangers of satellite debris, probabilities of collision, etc. but nothing about actually hiring new people to deal with the problem, building new sensors, developing strategies to track satellites with more accuracy, etc.
If satellites are now in danger, why not begin to do something instead of just talking about doing something? If more manpower is required, why not start canvassing for the expertise required (not just a military rank) to begin developing strategies for collision avoidance that works?
Here, we have a perfect new industry ready to begin, yet everyone is either locked in ivory towers, too scared of liability or just not willing to do any work to get started.
I, myself, detected a total of 3,060 satellites of the total satellite population. If one person can do all that, just imagine what an international (not just U.S.) team of scientists who are serious about solving a problem can do. If the cost of developing new tracking and collision avoidance techniques are now necessary because of the present danger (and future cost) of satellite collision, what are we waiting for?
Isn't it about time that satellite tracking become an accepted science and not just a military mandate? If more people are required to solve this problem, incentives need to be offered. Talk is cheap but it will cost expensive satellites.
-------------------- Michael A. Earl - Vendor
Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
www.castor2.ca
Celestron NexStar 11 GPS
Celestron NexStar 8i SE
SBIG ST-9XE CCD
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RonBurgundy
sage
Reged: 06/16/09
Posts: 252
Loc: Philadelphia
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Indeed, it is dangerous to the satellites. But what worries me more is the risk to manned spaceflight. One of the saddest days I can remember in my lifetime was the day that the Columbia didn't make it home. It truly was an avoidable tragedy. Unfortunately, countries continue to have to deal with this space debris. For example, the high-altitude Hubble mission had a 1-in-300 chance of catastrophic failure due to space junk. That's a sad state of affairs. I agree, some sort of detection method must be made...and soon!
-------------------- Kipp Ginsburg
8" LX200-ACF
Orion 120mm F/5.0 Piggybacked Refractor
Meade UWA Set [4.7mm-30mm]
DSI-II
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alanon
Nobody tells me anything
   
Reged: 06/29/07
Posts: 2590
Loc: Las Vegas
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They should post No littering signs in orbit.
Only partly kidding here. The exsisting litter will drop out of orbit over time, so if we are more cognisant, and seriously reduce the adding of more then...
Am I missing something, or is it impossible to stop littering the orbits with debris?
-------------------- Alanon the Wizard (a literary character, not the organization)
Dan
12.5" Obsession #1531
WO 98mm FLT (aluminum tube)
WO ZenithStarII 80mm ED
Coronado PST Ha
Edited by alanon (11/06/09 03:50 PM)
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Scott Horstman
Vendor- Backyard Observatories
   
Reged: 03/11/04
Posts: 8074
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Quote:
The amount of junk floating in space is getting out of hand and the United States must step up its effort to control orbital trash, experts are saying.
Why again must the US step up it's efforts. How about a little help from Chiner and Russier. We have been conciencious of this problem for a long time while Chiner blows stuff up up there and Russier still ejects it's tirds into orbit and the last collision was caused by a dead Russian satellite.
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Edited by llanitedave (11/06/09 05:08 PM)
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Michael A. Earl
vendor- Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
Reged: 11/17/08
Posts: 1113
Loc: Brockville, Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
But what worries me more is the risk to manned spaceflight.
What I am about to say will shock everyone. Manned space travel is NOT the priority here, despite what you see on the news. Forget the shuttle and the ISS and think about all those satellites that give you satellite TV, GPS navigation, weather reports and assist in "search and rescue" operations. These satellites save more lives every day than the total amount of astronauts ever put into orbit. We have come to take satellites for granted here on Earth, which is extremely dangerous because we expect them to serve us without knowing how to take care of them. Nobody thinks about learning (or even teaching) basic orbital mechanics. Private industry is only concerned with tracking its own active satellites than the health of the entire satellite population (including inactive satellites and space debris) as a whole. There are a few excpetions in Europe, however.
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the high-altitude Hubble mission had a 1-in-300 chance of catastrophic failure due to space junk.
If you are referring to the Hubble Space Telescope, that is not a high altitude satellite. In fact, it orbits at only 600km (370 miles) above the Earth's surface, which is one of the lowest altitude satellites. GPS satellites orbit at 20,000km above the Earth's surface. Geosynchronous satellites orbit at 38,000km in altitude. I have detected one satellite that was 196,000km above the Earth's surface. That's high altitude.
You have raised a very important point, however. Most do not know the types of orbits that the most important satellites in our lives have, nor are they even taught. All we see on the news is the "flash" stories because those are the "most exciting", i.e. the ISS and shuttle.
Sometimes, when you see a malfunctioniung satellite story on the news, they don't even bother to tell anyone what the satellite did or what type orbit it is in. That's shocking!
I can certainly see why nothing is being done about the debris problem. It is because there are not enough people who are truly experienced (not just there for the "job" or have a specific military rank) at studying the satellite population and developing cost-effecive strategies (if there is such a thing) that will relieve the space debris problem we now definitely face.
I have thought (naively) that once the collision happened that a worldwide search for experience would begin for people who have some working knowledge of the satellite population (not necessarily PhDs or military generals) and get them together to talk about understanding the nature of the beast. So far, all I have seen is everyone keeping everything "in house", i.e. the U.S. tells everyone to not worry they will deal with it. That, IMHO is the totally wrong response to this problem, unless they are willing to begin thinking "outside the box" and start looking to other countries to assist, regardless of the classified satellites they wish to protect.
I cannot say I am an expert in satellite tracking (who is?), even though I have detected about 1/6 of the total (known) population myself. However, I have seen enough to know that the space is indeed crowded and that newer and more accurate tracking methods are defintely required if we are to avoid the next collision.
-------------------- Michael A. Earl - Vendor
Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
www.castor2.ca
Celestron NexStar 11 GPS
Celestron NexStar 8i SE
SBIG ST-9XE CCD
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Michael A. Earl
vendor- Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
Reged: 11/17/08
Posts: 1113
Loc: Brockville, Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
Why again must the US step up it's efforts. How about a little help from Chiner and Russier.
I absolutely agree with you on this one! However, that is a two-way street. The U.S has to be willing to offload some of its tracking responsibilities to Russia, China, etc. and that might not be an easy thing to do, especially with its past in space superiority. It is difficult for a country who has done seemingly everything to begin trusting others to come up with ideas. The U.S. will defintely have problems offloading responsibilites mainly because it has a problem trusting others, especially with something as sensitive as protecting the active satellite population. However, the recent collision has taught everyone that the U.S. is not infallible and that it does need new expertise and strategies to prevent the next one. I do not think it will be able to get those in-house this time, especially if it takes the same road that it has been taking for 50 years with respect to this particular subject. Space has been privatized in all ways but one: satellite tracking.
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We have been conciencious of this problem for a long time while Chiner blows stuff up up there and Russier still ejects it's tirds into orbit
The China part I agree with. I still have no idea what possessed the Chinese to willingly destroy its Fengyun 1C satellite and shatter it into thousands of pieces, thereby greatly increasing the probability for collision with another satellite. Although I cannot prove this, my suspicion is that the February 10th collision was partially caused by the U.S. focusing too much on those thousands of Fengyun 1C piceces while sacrificing the tracking of inactive intact payloads such as Cosmos 2251. In other words, the Chinese distracted the U.S. enough to miss that collision.
Although Russia too is sending massive amounts of objects into orbit, the Americans have done the same since 1958. In fact, the proportion is about equal on both sides. The U.S. never did develop a strategy of cleaning up debris either, so they are not exactly squeaky clean.
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and the last collision was caused by a dead Russian satellite.
Yes and no. Although Cosmos 2251 was indeed one of the satellites that collided and it was owned and launched by Russia, it is a tough call to say that the Russians were solely responsible for the collision. I am sure that as we speak, the lawyers on all sides are still hammering out the fine details as to who exactly was responsible for the collision. I hope they are getting the help of people who truly know the satellite population and not just claiming that because they have a high rank in some organization (it happens). I also hope that whatever is finally decided, it begins an international effort on space debris mitigation and new guidelines for tracking inactive payloads, rockets and debris. It is definitely time to look past the nationalism that might have worked in the past, but is now binding our hands to tackling this problem logically.
Iridium 33 (an American satellite) was launched by Russia. Some could say that since Russia launched both satellites that it is soley responsible for the debris caused by the collision, but it is not as simple as that. Was Russia responsible for tracking both Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 for all time? Iridium 33 was the only maneuverable satellite of the two. Iridium LLC could be liable because it did not move its satellte out of harm's way as well as ignoring the conjunction reports (see the next paragraph).
The missing (and most important) piece is satellite tracking. You rarely hear about that subject when the collision is brought up. However, satellite tracking is at the very heart of this matter because it is the only way to presently know which satellites are in danger of collision with inactive (or active) satellites.
Iridium LLC (owner of the Iridium 33 satellite) claimed that it did not trust the NORAD conjunction reports it received every week. Is it suddenly NORAD's fault the collision happened? Wow! What a mess!
The biggest problem to iron out is responsibility and liability for tracking satellites. This is the single reason why private satellite companies won't even discuss tracking inactive objects on their own. I can't blame them, since the only "law" the world has on space debris control is a U.N. Convention drawn up in 1972. By the way, that Convention doesn't even mention satellite tracking (WOW), NORAD (the U.S.) is in the clear it seems.
The truth is that there is no drawn up, agreed to and especially enforcable international law regarding any real liability for any collision that happens up there right now. I am hoping that this year's collision will begin the process for drawing up a comprehensive and serious international law for dealing with space debris and preventing serious mishaps (such as collisions).
The rest is just talk and worthless posturing.
-------------------- Michael A. Earl - Vendor
Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
www.castor2.ca
Celestron NexStar 11 GPS
Celestron NexStar 8i SE
SBIG ST-9XE CCD
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Shadowalker
Unpretentious Rocket Scientist
   
Reged: 11/23/04
Posts: 3517
Loc: Poplarville, MS, USA
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Michael, in the US we have the Air Force's Space Command, which I've been told tracks all objects down to a certain size. Like many military programs, I assume the data collected is classified. But do they have the data you're talking about? Or are you talking about a level of tracking and detection higher than what they're doing?
-------------------- Tom Nicolaides
http://www.first-light.org
My evil self is at that door, and I have no power to stop it
-- Dr. Edward Morbius
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Michael A. Earl
vendor- Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
Reged: 11/17/08
Posts: 1113
Loc: Brockville, Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
Michael, in the US we have the Air Force's Space Command, which I've been told tracks all objects down to a certain size. Like many military programs, I assume the data collected is classified. But do they have the data you're talking about? Or are you talking about a level of tracking and detection higher than what they're doing?
I have dealt with U.S. Space Command, including the 1st Space Control Squadron (1SPCS), formerly the 1st Command and Control Squadron (1CACS). They are the only ones who are truly keeping a true vigilance on space, as they track all objects in orbit about 1-2cm in size or larger.
They do have classified satellites, but that is to be expected. If satellite tracking is ever to be privatized, it must first agree with military officials not to (accurately) track their classified satellites and distrubute the data. This is certainly understandible.
I have been talking (briefly) about the U.S. Space Command, NORAD, 1SPCS, and any other moniker that is popular now. I tried carefully not to demean them or insult them, since they are best the world has right now. Although they missed the collision last February, it proves that their efforts are not enough for the shear number of debris orbiting the planet right now. I am not saying that they are to blame for the collision: that would be infantile at this point. What I am saying is that the number of objects in orbit have increased to the point where U.S. Space Command can no longer track every one of them with the frequency required to ensure accurate conjunction analysis for every single possibility. Iridium LLC has already made that known. To attain this capability quickly would require major $$$, not to mention many more experienced (civilian) personnel.
Nobody has committed a crime with respect to this collision since everyone was (legally) playing by their own rules. The conjunction reports and TLEs that NORAD publishes for the satellite companies and on the SpaceTrack website is the best (unclassified) information available, even though it is not perfect. It is what all other satellite tracking websites are based on. To make this information perfect, it would require an international partnership with around the clock tracking and eternal vigilance over the ever expanding satellite population. It is either that or reduce the amount of debris orbiting the Earth, which would also take major $$$ to implement. Take your pick.
NORAD does produce more accurate orbit elements than what is disseminated to the public, but those are reserved for much more important and high priority satellites.
-------------------- Michael A. Earl - Vendor
Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
www.castor2.ca
Celestron NexStar 11 GPS
Celestron NexStar 8i SE
SBIG ST-9XE CCD
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JAT Observatory
Got Cookies?
   
Reged: 02/20/05
Posts: 6786
Loc: Eastern PA
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"The U.S has to be willing to offload some of its tracking responsibilities to Russia, China, etc...."
Tell me I didn't just read that. You can't possible be serious!
-------------------- -Marcus
The problem with free speech is even the stupid have a voice.
http://www.jatobservatory.org
Currently a SV102A, WO 66mm & 10" LX200GPS OTA on a Paramount ME
(these OTAs subject to change without notice)
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Michael A. Earl
vendor- Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
Reged: 11/17/08
Posts: 1113
Loc: Brockville, Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
Tell me I didn't just read that. You can't possible be serious!
I also said international. That would include checks and balances. Both Russia and China launch their own satellites too, therefore they have expertise. I didn't say it would be easy.
-------------------- Michael A. Earl - Vendor
Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
www.castor2.ca
Celestron NexStar 11 GPS
Celestron NexStar 8i SE
SBIG ST-9XE CCD
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Scott Horstman
Vendor- Backyard Observatories
   
Reged: 03/11/04
Posts: 8074
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Quote:
"The U.S has to be willing to offload some of its tracking responsibilities to Russia, China, etc...."
Tell me I didn't just read that. You can't possible be serious!
Tracking space debris is one thing. That's a whole other can of worms.
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Michael A. Earl
vendor- Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
Reged: 11/17/08
Posts: 1113
Loc: Brockville, Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
Tracking space debris is one thing. That's a whole other can of worms.
Detecting the objects is not the issue. We all know that NORAD has the best capability to do that. It is the tracking frequency and the orbit determination accuracy that is of importance here. The article I attached in the first post never mentioned any of that, which is why I was irked in the first place.
The amount of objects in orbit are so vast at this stage (thanks to the Chinese and the collision) that no one nation alone can accurately track all of them. What we need at this stage is an international community of satellite tracking excellence (if there is such a thing now) to begin implementing (not just thinking or talking about) new methods of tracking and increasing orbit determination accuracy, possibly through increased tracking frequency for every object.
This is just right for a new satellite tracking industry. Since the satellite industry itself is doing so well (apparently they are not even phased by the Recession), why not sweeten the deal and create a spinoff industry devoted to satellite tracking? I know that NORAD would probably not like that too much, but this is where the diplomats step in. The UN will have something important to do at least.
Hey, I'm just thinking out loud, but this is bound to happen sooner or later, or satellites will continue colliding. We finally had proof of that last February.
The "can of worms" is just beginning.
-------------------- Michael A. Earl - Vendor
Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
www.castor2.ca
Celestron NexStar 11 GPS
Celestron NexStar 8i SE
SBIG ST-9XE CCD
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llanitedave
Humble Megalomaniac
   
Reged: 09/26/05
Posts: 12939
Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA
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Quote:
Quote:
"The U.S has to be willing to offload some of its tracking responsibilities to Russia, China, etc...."
Tell me I didn't just read that. You can't possible be serious!
Tracking space debris is one thing. That's a whole other can of worms.
Well, you can't have it both ways. You can't say on one hand that it's too expensive for us to track the entire world's debris, and that China and Russia should be able to pull some of the weight, and then on the other hand deny them the data that would be required to successfully do just that.
This problem is bigger than one country, and if there was ever a need for international cooperation on a subject that's important to all of us together, this is a biggie.
-------------------- "Since the process of science generates more mysteries than it solves, I predict that we'll never learn everything: and we'll continue to generate new ignorance at the speed of knowledge."
"S.O.E." (Sauron's Other Eye), with 16" Royce conical mirror: A permanent work in progress.
10" Homebuilt dob, old Coulter mirror
Under Construction: The "Eye of Sauron" Observatory!
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Scott Horstman
Vendor- Backyard Observatories
   
Reged: 03/11/04
Posts: 8074
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You're comparing tracking debris with giving out classified info? There should be a co-op on tracking the junk. No one is going to lay all their cards on the table though.
Quote:
I know that NORAD would probably not like that too much, but this is where the diplomats step in. The UN will have something important to do at least.
Moderator remark:
Scott, there really has to be some way of discussing this topic without bringing politics into it...
Edited by llanitedave (11/09/09 12:02 AM)
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JAT Observatory
Got Cookies?
   
Reged: 02/20/05
Posts: 6786
Loc: Eastern PA
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Quote:
This is just right for a new satellite tracking industry. Since the satellite industry itself is doing so well (apparently they are not even phased by the Recession), why not sweeten the deal and create a spinoff industry devoted to satellite tracking?
Mike who do you think in the satellite business is going pay for this service? The manufacturers, operators, or end users? The reason the Gov has a system is they are non-profit.
There are already private satellite tracking companies but not CA service. You still need access to the hardware (radar network) not just a regular tracking antenna for the OD of stuff not electronically or optically visible. Who going to pay for that?
Do you have any idea what is cost a company to have a 3rd party ground station accurately electrically track a single pass of a functional MEO or LEO satellite, that has an known orbit from the time of AOS to LOS?
The reality is that would mean a commercial company would be hiring a firm to track other peoples junk. Not there own satellite, but dead non-functional small pieces of debris.
They'll pay to have someone fly their bird and do OD of their own bird's but not someone else's junk. The business model is unworkable. It is just not a viable commercial business.
The commercial customers don't even want to pay for the satellites, they sure aren't going to pay for collision avoidance.
The commercial satellite manufacturers aren't interested in getting into the collision avoidance tracking business for anything other than what is needed for a new launch of their bird before it turned over to the customer. If they did, that would mean their OAs would be tried up doing CA instead of OD work for existing or future proposed missions.
-M
-------------------- -Marcus
The problem with free speech is even the stupid have a voice.
http://www.jatobservatory.org
Currently a SV102A, WO 66mm & 10" LX200GPS OTA on a Paramount ME
(these OTAs subject to change without notice)
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Michael A. Earl
vendor- Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
Reged: 11/17/08
Posts: 1113
Loc: Brockville, Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
Mike who do you think in the satellite business is going pay for this service? The manufacturers, operators, or end users? The reason the Gov has a system is they are non-profit.
Hey, I agree with you. The only problem is that the current system is failing. This cannot be denied. A new system has to be put in its place, or at least augmented and so far all I see (or have heard about) is spinning wheels.
All of what you said I already summed up earlier in one word: liability. Nobody wants it. Liability is expensive, I hear ya! I have already mentioned that private companies are unwilling to take responsibility for the satellite population.
Change is always very expensive in more ways than one.
All you have done is repeated what I had already said earlier. Anything new?
Quote:
The business model is unworkable.
Man, if I had a nickel for the number of times that sentence has been uttered when a new idea is offered. It becomes workable when we work at it. If nobody is willing, yes it is unworkable.
Once upon a time, landing on the Moon was "unworkable", until someone actually had the audacity to try. No, it is not easy. I already said that.
We now have a problem. Quoting tired cliches isn't going to solve it.
Yes, I had the gaul to offer an idea here. If it is "unworkable", well at least I had an idea.
Do you have an idea? Please share.
-------------------- Michael A. Earl - Vendor
Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
www.castor2.ca
Celestron NexStar 11 GPS
Celestron NexStar 8i SE
SBIG ST-9XE CCD
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Michael A. Earl
vendor- Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
Reged: 11/17/08
Posts: 1113
Loc: Brockville, Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
This problem is bigger than one country, and if there was ever a need for international cooperation on a subject that's important to all of us together, this is a biggie.
Absolutely agreed! This problem might be the first real litmus test of true international cooperation. Our entire satellite infrastructure certainly depends on it.
The question now is, can the world actually cooperate on this matter?
-------------------- Michael A. Earl - Vendor
Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
www.castor2.ca
Celestron NexStar 11 GPS
Celestron NexStar 8i SE
SBIG ST-9XE CCD
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Scott Horstman
Vendor- Backyard Observatories
   
Reged: 03/11/04
Posts: 8074
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Quote:
Moderator remark: Scott, there really has to be some way of discussing this topic without bringing politics into it...
Edited by llanitedave (11/09/09 12:02 AM)
Sorry Dave. I thought it was comedy.
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matt
Vendor (Scopemania)
   
Reged: 07/28/03
Posts: 10360
Loc: Chaville, France
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Isn't there another thorny issue in the deployment of a "space vacuum cleaner"? Even if you A-figured out a way to build a practical one and B- got all parties involved to find a viable solution (all countries participating, or one building the system and the others paying a "fee" for the "service"), how do you get around that you have built what is potentially a satellite-killing system?
1- you can't have a "cleanup" system if you don't have other countries telling you "hey that's not junk, that's one of my spy satellites!", just like in your home you don't vacuum away coins, small Lego bricks and M3 collimation screws.
2- how can you have a country building such a system, and not have all the other countries wonder whether, in the case of a conflict, they will use it to wipe out their own satellite-based system? (as Michael pointed out in his first post, it would have the same kind of effect as bombing their ground infrastructures like bridges and communication towers).
-------------------- Matt
CI700 mount with various scopes on top.
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Michael A. Earl
vendor- Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
Reged: 11/17/08
Posts: 1113
Loc: Brockville, Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
1- you can't have a "cleanup" system if you don't have other countries telling you "hey that's not junk, that's one of my spy satellites!"
Yes, I can certainly see international incidents flaring up because of mistakes, however, I don't really see debris cleanup as the viable option. The best way to do debris cleanup is to ease up on the satellite launches until the low Earth satellite population is allowed to deplete naturally (i.e. orbit decay). However, that would potentially be devastating to the satellite industry as it would take years of waiting. Talk about a Catch-22!
I remember remarking 10 years ago that the term "Satellite Environmentalism" would eventually begin creeping into our vocabularies. Today, after the collision, that seems to have been forced onto us. I have read some articles where they refer to "green" satellite disposal. "Green" of course does not involve protecting the Earth, but protecting the active satellite population. Satellite Environmentalism.
Just like Earth-bound environmentalism, industries will need to change in order to preserve what we now take for granted. I have no idea how many satellite collisions there will be down down the road, nobody does, however we have had one, and that's enough for me.
Quote:
2- how can you have a country building such a system, and not have all the other countries wonder whether, in the case of a conflict, they will use it to wipe out their own satellite-based system? (as Michael pointed out in his first post, it would have the same kind of effect as bombing their ground infrastructures like bridges and communication towers).
Trust and good faith amongst the satellite launching nations will have to be the binding force that keeps such an international effort together. At least we have the ISS, the beginnings of such cooperation, however the trust would have to extend past the residue cold-war sentiments and suspicions. It will be tough and most likely very painful to all nations involved.
The bottom line is that behaviours need to change in order for the active satellite population to remain healthy. This is what you do not see in articles like the one in my first post. That is because it will be painful and like I said before, could be the first true test of international cooperation in a critical arena.
I am secretely hoping that U.S. Space Command obtains a whole slew of satellite tracking expertise and completely reinvents the subject such that the U.S. can still handle all of the satellites currently in orbit and continue to generate conjunction reports for the satellite industry (with a 1km spherical accuracy). It would certainly avoid a lot of problems. However, I haven't heard of that happening (yet). I guess the money isn't available to do that.
-------------------- Michael A. Earl - Vendor
Canadian Satellite Tracking and Orbit Research
www.castor2.ca
Celestron NexStar 11 GPS
Celestron NexStar 8i SE
SBIG ST-9XE CCD
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