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Rick Woods
Postmaster
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Reged: 01/27/05

Loc: Inner Solar System
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: maugi88]
      #6286322 - 01/01/14 07:48 PM

It could also be that ET is here, but their physiology is extremely small. Their spaceships could be 2 inches long, and look like rocks; so they might be here in force, studying us, and we'd never notice. There's no reason they would have to be beings the same size as us.

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herrointment
Carpal Tunnel
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Reged: 03/12/11

Loc: North of Hwy. 64
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: Rick Woods]
      #6286414 - 01/01/14 08:48 PM

Flyswatter, anyone?

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llanitedave
Humble Megalomaniac
*****

Reged: 09/26/05

Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: maugi88]
      #6286449 - 01/01/14 09:09 PM

Quote:

Dave am I one of the microbes in which you speak?




Quote:


I know I shouldn't get small when I'm drivin', but, uh, I was drivin' around the other day, you know and a cop pulls me over. And he goes, 'Hey, are you small?' I said, 'No, I'm tall, I'm tall.' He said, 'Well, I'm gonna have to measure you.' They've got a little test they give you; it's a balloon, and if you can get inside of it, they know... you're small. And they can't put you in a regular cell either, because you walk right out.



/Steve Martin

Edited by llanitedave (01/01/14 09:14 PM)


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ColoHank
Carpal Tunnel
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Reged: 06/07/07

Loc: western Colorado
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: Rick Woods]
      #6286522 - 01/01/14 09:50 PM

Quote:

It could also be that ET is here, but their physiology is extremely small. Their spaceships could be 2 inches long, and look like rocks




I've had a number of encounters with them, usually during the wintertime. That's when the moving vehicles in front of me are most likely to propel those small rock-like spaceships up into my windshield.


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Mister T
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 02/01/08

Loc: Upstate NY
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: ColoHank]
      #6286951 - 01/02/14 06:02 AM

I routinely try to give them a boost to LEO with my snowblower.

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FirstSightModerator
Duke of Deneb
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Reged: 12/26/05

Loc: Raleigh, NC
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: llanitedave]
      #6287082 - 01/02/14 08:54 AM

Quote:

If I was the only one who had such evidence it would be hard to call it irrefutable.




You discover E.T. in your bedroom closet, and its behavior convinces you it's unlikely to simply be an autonomous smart or remote-controlled animatronic doll. Especially when you get it into the passenger seat of your car and your car takes off flying toward whatever destination you think about going toward. True, "unlikely" isn't the same thing as "irrefutably", but at that point don't you think you'd be well along the way to being "convinced"?


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ColoHank
Carpal Tunnel
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Reged: 06/07/07

Loc: western Colorado
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: FirstSight]
      #6287307 - 01/02/14 11:00 AM

Quote:


You discover E.T. in your bedroom closet, and its behavior convinces you it's unlikely to simply be an autonomous smart or remote-controlled animatronic doll. Especially when you get it into the passenger seat of your car and your car takes off flying toward whatever destination you think about going toward. True, "unlikely" isn't the same thing as "irrefutably", but at that point don't you think you'd be well along the way to being "convinced"?






At least until the sound of your morning newspaper slamming against the front door in the wee hours jars you awake, and you suddenly realize that your adventures with E.T. and the flying car have been nothing more than a rather vivid dream.

Edited by ColoHank (01/02/14 11:01 AM)


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Muffin Research
Carpal Tunnel


Reged: 09/28/07

Loc: Belgium
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: FirstSight]
      #6287309 - 01/02/14 11:02 AM

Well yeah but the point is that if only one person has had this experience.. And the other 7 billion did not.. It didn't happen

As I think the consensus is that for something to be true or a 'fact' that it has to be repeatable and shared.. otherwise it's just a loony tune.


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Rick Woods
Postmaster
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Reged: 01/27/05

Loc: Inner Solar System
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: ColoHank]
      #6287447 - 01/02/14 12:05 PM

Quote:

Quote:

It could also be that ET is here, but their physiology is extremely small. Their spaceships could be 2 inches long, and look like rocks




I've had a number of encounters with them, usually during the wintertime. That's when the moving vehicles in front of me are most likely to propel those small rock-like spaceships up into my windshield.




That's them firing warning shots across your bow.
(They aim for the bow, but sometimes they hit the windshield.)


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GregLee1
professor emeritus


Reged: 07/21/13

Loc: Waimanalo, HI
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: Muffin Research]
      #6287519 - 01/02/14 12:36 PM

Quote:

As I think the consensus is that for something to be true or a 'fact' that it has to be repeatable and shared.. otherwise it's just a loony tune.



And is that a fact?


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dickbill
scholastic sledgehammer


Reged: 09/30/08

Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: GregLee1]
      #6287823 - 01/02/14 03:03 PM

Just to add to the deafening silence, and to back up my rough estimate of ~ hundred years before this issue is settled, at least the way we discus it here:

"The recent study of Kopparapu (2013) used the NASA Kepler data to estimate that 48% of the M-dwarf stars have an Earth-like planet. This implies that the closest Earth-like planet to Earth is about 6.4 light years away and that there is a 94% probability for an Earth-like planet within 10 light years from Earth. These numbers do not consider planets around other types of stars. More details here."
'Here' is at:
http://phl.upr.edu/projects/habitable-exoplanets-catalog
and
http://phl.upr.edu/library/notes/statisticsofnearbyearth-likeplanetsaroundm-d...

So, hopefully, we will have a sample size of earth-like exoplanets of around a dozen be the end of this century, and perhaps a big mirror of 60 meters to study the most promising candidates.
I am not be fan of M-stars btw, but we can hope similar numbers for G stars.


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llanitedave
Humble Megalomaniac
*****

Reged: 09/26/05

Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: FirstSight]
      #6287827 - 01/02/14 03:04 PM

Quote:

Quote:

If I was the only one who had such evidence it would be hard to call it irrefutable.




You discover E.T. in your bedroom closet, and its behavior convinces you it's unlikely to simply be an autonomous smart or remote-controlled animatronic doll. Especially when you get it into the passenger seat of your car and your car takes off flying toward whatever destination you think about going toward. True, "unlikely" isn't the same thing as "irrefutably", but at that point don't you think you'd be well along the way to being "convinced"?




I would think it more likely that Steven Speilberg was being mischievous.

Now, if I were to find Elvis in my closet...


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GregLee1
professor emeritus


Reged: 07/21/13

Loc: Waimanalo, HI
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: dickbill]
      #6288113 - 01/02/14 05:12 PM

I have a hard time getting interested in these estimates of the likelihood of life-as-we-know-it on earth-like planets in our vicinity. The attraction of such estimates seems to lie solely in their feasibility -- people can find numbers to make the estimates. But that is like the old saying that if you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Why think the intelligences we meet in the universe will be life-as-we-know-it residing on earth-like planets? No reason. Is even life on earth life-as-we-know it? Think of the organisms living around the volcanic vents in the Atlantic.

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dickbill
scholastic sledgehammer


Reged: 09/30/08

Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: GregLee1]
      #6288164 - 01/02/14 05:45 PM

Quote:

Is even life on earth life-as-we-know it? Think of the organisms living around the volcanic vents in the Atlantic.



These are adaptations of more primitive life forms. When you consider the Thermophilic Archaebacteria, for example how can they have proteins and DNA that are functional and not denatured despite their 100degreC environment, it's because of secondary adaptations from non-extremophile forms.
The idea that life could start up in extreme environments is not very credible, but once Life is there, it can adapt to some extend to these conditions.


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maugi88
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 08/25/13

Loc: SE MN
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: llanitedave]
      #6288559 - 01/02/14 09:38 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Dave am I one of the microbes in which you speak?




Quote:


I know I shouldn't get small when I'm drivin', but, uh, I was drivin' around the other day, you know and a cop pulls me over. And he goes, 'Hey, are you small?' I said, 'No, I'm tall, I'm tall.' He said, 'Well, I'm gonna have to measure you.' They've got a little test they give you; it's a balloon, and if you can get inside of it, they know... you're small. And they can't put you in a regular cell either, because you walk right out.



/Steve Martin




I must be the microbe. I don't understand how your reply relates to my question.

Dave made a statement ending in irrefutable. I asked what he meant by that. Then Greg completely insulted me so I let him know it bothered me.

The next thing I know, a joke about intelligent microbes turns into an insult toward someone on this forum. I asked if it was me.

I guess I got my answer.

Thanks Dave.


Edited by maugi88 (01/02/14 10:01 PM)


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Muffin Research
Carpal Tunnel


Reged: 09/28/07

Loc: Belgium
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: GregLee1]
      #6288588 - 01/02/14 09:49 PM

Quote:

I have a hard time getting interested in these estimates of the likelihood of life-as-we-know-it on earth-like planets in our vicinity. The attraction of such estimates seems to lie solely in their feasibility -- people can find numbers to make the estimates. But that is like the old saying that if you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Why think the intelligences we meet in the universe will be life-as-we-know-it residing on earth-like planets? No reason. Is even life on earth life-as-we-know it? Think of the organisms living around the volcanic vents in the Atlantic.




I think it's not that weird to think that in similar circumstances that those circumstances would come up with rather similar constructions as here on earth.. I mean life is very varied on this planet.. maybe if you get down to the basics in energy consumption and transmission lots of properties are shared but that would happen on another planet as well.. Gravity and how to move through fluids and gasses would also have similar effects on evolution there.
So I wouldn't find it strange if similar solutions to the problem of life and environment evolved there as well.

Or maybe the pattern is already everywhere laid out in the morphogenetic fields


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llanitedave
Humble Megalomaniac
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Reged: 09/26/05

Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: maugi88]
      #6288680 - 01/02/14 10:39 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Dave am I one of the microbes in which you speak?




Quote:


I know I shouldn't get small when I'm drivin', but, uh, I was drivin' around the other day, you know and a cop pulls me over. And he goes, 'Hey, are you small?' I said, 'No, I'm tall, I'm tall.' He said, 'Well, I'm gonna have to measure you.' They've got a little test they give you; it's a balloon, and if you can get inside of it, they know... you're small. And they can't put you in a regular cell either, because you walk right out.



/Steve Martin




I must be the microbe. I don't understand how your reply relates to my question.

Dave made a statement ending in irrefutable. I asked what he meant by that. Then Greg completely insulted me so I let him know it bothered me.

The next thing I know, a joke about intelligent microbes turns into an insult toward someone on this forum. I asked if it was me.

I guess I got my answer.

Thanks Dave.





Sorry maugi, I thought the question was a joke. The only way to know whether you're a microbe is to ask "Are you small?"


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llanitedave
Humble Megalomaniac
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Reged: 09/26/05

Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: GregLee1]
      #6288694 - 01/02/14 10:52 PM

Quote:

I have a hard time getting interested in these estimates of the likelihood of life-as-we-know-it on earth-like planets in our vicinity. The attraction of such estimates seems to lie solely in their feasibility -- people can find numbers to make the estimates. But that is like the old saying that if you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Why think the intelligences we meet in the universe will be life-as-we-know-it residing on earth-like planets? No reason. Is even life on earth life-as-we-know it? Think of the organisms living around the volcanic vents in the Atlantic.




Vent organisms are carbon-based, they have a DNA genetic system, they use the same amino acids and proteins and ribosomes that the rest of life on Earth uses.

When you study the chemical basis of all living things on Earth, the most striking thing is how similar they all are. Not only that, but where they differ, they differ in well-defined ways that map to specific lineages. The tree metaphor for life's relationships does get kind of convoluted there at the roots, but there still remain many traceable lineages in individual DNA sequences.

I don't think we would expect life that had evolved elsewhere to have the same specific similarities that life on Earth does, BUT, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect it to be constructed of the same mix of carbon-hydrogen-oxygen-phosphorus-sulfur compounds that familiar life does, simply because these elements are abundant throughout the universe, and they combine and behave in ways that allow life to proceed. I'd expect to see sugars, lipids, and proteins in various combinations, and I'd expect to see diverse ecosystems with numerous interacting species. I'd also expect the amino acids to display homochirality.

Everything else is pretty much up for grabs, depending on how you want to define "as we know it".


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GregLee1
professor emeritus


Reged: 07/21/13

Loc: Waimanalo, HI
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: llanitedave]
      #6288903 - 01/03/14 02:11 AM

Quote:


... BUT, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect it to be constructed of the same mix of carbon-hydrogen-oxygen-phosphorus-sulfur compounds that familiar life does, simply because these elements are abundant throughout the universe, and they combine and behave in ways that allow life to proceed.



But
Quote:

It is easy to conceive of chemical reactions that might support life involving noncarbon compounds, occurring in solvents other than water, or involving oxidation-reduction reactions without dioxygen.




according to The Limits of Organic Life in Planetary Systems, p. 18.


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GregLee1
professor emeritus


Reged: 07/21/13

Loc: Waimanalo, HI
Re: The silence is deafening.... new [Re: FirstSight]
      #6288954 - 01/03/14 03:19 AM

Quote:

All silence means is that any other intelligent life that exists out there is forbiddingly distant from us, not evidence against the probabilities for their existence.



Even if they're close by, we might not hear them if they're not beaming messages our way. Paul Davies argues:

Quote:

A fundamental flaw lies at the core of most existing SETI strategies. Carl Sagan popularized the appealing idea that an altruistic alien community might be obligingly beaming radio messages at us, perhaps carefully crafted to give mankind a welcome technological and sociological fillip. But that scenario will no longer wash. Even SETI optimists concede that a radio-savvy civilization within a few hundred light years is extremely unlikely (and systematic searches have spotted nothing). Suppose there is an alien community 1,000 light years away. That is still in our galactic neighborhood--the Milky Way is some 100,000 light years across. The aliens belonging to this putative community cannot know of our existence--they cannot know that Earth has radio technology and the means to detect their signals. The reason concerns the finite speed of light. At 1,000 light years away, the aliens see Earth today as it was 1,000 years ago. Because nothing can go faster than light (it is a basic law of physics), there is no way they can know about the industrial revolution and terrestrial radio telescopes. So why would they have started beaming messages to us 1,000 years ago, when their view of Earth at that time would have been the year A.D. 10? They might detect signs of agriculture and large scale building (such as the pyramids), and they may of course surmise that some millennium soon humans would develop radio technology. But it would make no sense for them to start transmitting powerful and expensive radio messages at us until they know we are on the air. When will that be? In about 900 years time, when our first feeble radio transmissions, leaking into space at the speed of light, finally reach them.

I do not oppose traditional SETI. The astronomers are doing a great job, and they have refined their techniques splendidly. The Allen Telescope Array currently under construction will help a lot. They have my full backing. But their methodology is well adapted to searching for narrow-band (sharp frequency) continuous signals. They stick to this because they have built up a lot of expertise in that area and that is what their financial backers are paying them to do. Their systems are less well adapted, however, to what I regard as the more promising approach to radio SETI, which is to look for beacons, for example, towards the center of the galaxy, where the oldest and wealthiest civilizations are likely to be located. The problem about detecting a beacon is that it would show up as just "something that went bleep in the night," and may not recur for months or even years. You'd have to stare at the same patch of sky for a very long time. SETI is not geared to that kind of observation and is not funded to do it. But the huge advantage of beacons as opposed to directed narrow-band signals is that the beacon-builders need have no knowledge of our existence. A beacon is made for general consumption, and serves only as a beckoning signal; it is not a message deliberately aimed at us. So the chances of finding a beacon are much higher.




from Amazon product page for Davies' book The Eerie Silence: Renewing Our Search for Alien Intelligence.


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