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mountain monk
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Reged: 11/06/09

Loc: Grand Teton National Park
Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: Rick Woods]
      #5655216 - 01/31/13 10:31 PM

Well, the NSA will always have it at their new storage site in Utah.

Dark skies.

Jack


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BobinKy
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: rockethead26]
      #5655515 - 02/01/13 02:53 AM

Quote:

Quote:

My dream is to have an old fashion library with dark wood paneling and bookshelfs from floor to ceiling full of books.

Rich (RLTYS)




Like this?

This is a picture of the main hall of the Trinity College Library in Dublin that I referenced in an earlier post. I did not take this image and it is in the public domain.






Thank you for posting this beautiful photo of a beautiful place.


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BobinKy
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: bicparker]
      #5655518 - 02/01/13 03:01 AM

Quote:


Paper lasts a long time.. a really long time. A really really really long time. And it can take quite a bit of abuse, extreme changes in temperature, and other environmental changes and still be readable.





But rock can last much longer.

Rock--Paper--Scissors: You vs. the Computer. I love to play this game.


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Rick Woods
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: BobinKy]
      #5656122 - 02/01/13 10:59 AM

Quote:

Quote:


Paper lasts a long time.. a really long time. A really really really long time. And it can take quite a bit of abuse, extreme changes in temperature, and other environmental changes and still be readable.





But rock can last much longer.





Harder to turn the pages, though.


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George N
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: Rick Woods]
      #5658402 - 02/02/13 03:53 PM

In the not-too-distant future paper and printing costs will be much higher as more and more producers drop out of the business, publishers will be moving to digital, and distribution channels will dry up. At that point, you’ll have the choice of paying $5 for an on-line copy of a new book, or $150 + delivery for a paper copy. Print your own? Printer sales are rapidly declining right now, as are the sales of ink and paper…. Meaning big price increases per/page for home printing. Meanwhile, tablets will be getting thinner, lighter, cheaper, and batteries will last 50+ hours…. not to mention that they’re fun to play with. As businesses go truly ‘paperless’ the corner ‘printing center’ will be history. The schools around the world will be pumping out graduates who have very little experience with paper and think of their iPad as something like a wristwatch. You put it on in the morning without thinking, and you use it for everything, including work and finding a mate.

I think that tablet and smart phone technology is as massively transforming as Guttenberg’s printing press was. And we’re not just talking books here….. my friends in academia tell me that soon most college students will rarely walk onto a campus. The ‘internet university’ is becoming a reality. All those paper pushers, printers, paper makers, lumberjacks, etc, will go the way of those who a hundred years ago made cheese boxes and milk bottles. In 1900 the railroads were the largest employer in America. Today they are experimenting with completely robotic trains….. no crew (and their health insurance) needed at all. Change is happening fast…..


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Rick Woods
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: George N]
      #5658496 - 02/02/13 04:53 PM

Every big change seems to end up in fewer people having jobs...

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GeneT
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Reged: 11/07/08

Loc: South Texas
Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: George N]
      #5659100 - 02/02/13 11:14 PM

Quote:

In the not-too-distant future paper and printing costs will be much higher as more and more producers drop out of the business, publishers will be moving to digital, and distribution channels will dry up. At that point, you’ll have the choice of paying $5 for an on-line copy of a new book, or $150 + delivery for a paper copy. Print your own? Printer sales are rapidly declining right now, as are the sales of ink and paper…. Meaning big price increases per/page for home printing. Meanwhile, tablets will be getting thinner, lighter, cheaper, and batteries will last 50+ hours…. not to mention that they’re fun to play with. As businesses go truly ‘paperless’ the corner ‘printing center’ will be history. The schools around the world will be pumping out graduates who have very little experience with paper and think of their iPad as something like a wristwatch. You put it on in the morning without thinking, and you use it for everything, including work and finding a mate.

I think that tablet and smart phone technology is as massively transforming as Guttenberg’s printing press was. And we’re not just talking books here….. my friends in academia tell me that soon most college students will rarely walk onto a campus. The ‘internet university’ is becoming a reality. All those paper pushers, printers, paper makers, lumberjacks, etc, will go the way of those who a hundred years ago made cheese boxes and milk bottles. In 1900 the railroads were the largest employer in America. Today they are experimenting with completely robotic trains….. no crew (and their health insurance) needed at all. Change is happening fast…..




Well said. I'll repeat my recommendation--if you are thinking of buying a print copy of a book, buy it soon. There are several William-Bell books I will be ordering soon.


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GeneT
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: BobinKy]
      #5659102 - 02/02/13 11:15 PM

I visited this library about 5 years ago.

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droid
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: GeneT]
      #5659154 - 02/02/13 11:58 PM

Lets assume for a minute that books do go electronically, and Im some what of a ludite, and some one who currently has 1000 real books wants them all in the electronic format, how exactly would one store 1000 digital books, or do you just download read and delete to make room on the tablet, lap top-what have you, ?????

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Rick Woods
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: droid]
      #5659252 - 02/03/13 01:34 AM

You can always write stuff to disc, and delete it from the computer if you need the room. I have lots of PDF-format books stored off like that. I've also printed several of the more useful ones.

But, I don't know how this would work with Kindle or tablet formats (since I don't have one - being more or less a luddite myself! )


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CounterWeight
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: Rick Woods]
      #5659565 - 02/03/13 09:19 AM

Often when researching I'll have several open at once... as they are often in a unique binding it's easy to go from on to another digging out what I'm after. Would be interesting to try same with little tablets that look the same...

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BillFerris
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: droid]
      #5659664 - 02/03/13 10:19 AM

Quote:

Lets assume for a minute that books do go electronically, and Im some what of a ludite, and some one who currently has 1000 real books wants them all in the electronic format, how exactly would one store 1000 digital books, or do you just download read and delete to make room on the tablet, lap top-what have you, ?????




As wireless continues to improve, the need to download externally produced media to a local storage device will eventually decline to zero. Master files will live in the cloud and consumers will enjoy an ever expanding menu of digital content via the Web...think Netflix, Hulu, etc. I suspect we'll see a continuation of the breakdown of brick & mortar barriers which resulted in the niche retail sales model. Businesses won't be limited to offering a relatively narrow selection of media. You'll be able to go to one site to gain access to films, series, books, magazines, music, etc. At first, you'll pay a monthly subscription fee for access to a broad selection of digital content licensed to a virtual storefront. For a small premium, you'll have the option to customize your subscription to allow first-in-line access to certain types of content. Eventually, someone will master the art of incorporating advertising into the consumption of online media in a way people actually enjoy...or, at least, don't find annoying. When that day comes, the model will most likely shift in the direction of classical broadcasting. Content will be free. We, the consumers, will be the product sold.

Bill in Flag


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GeneT
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: BillFerris]
      #5660388 - 02/03/13 05:18 PM

Quote:

As wireless continues to improve




When I travel, I do most of my reading on a 10 inch Android Tablet. I found that newspaper-like type of content loads and reads quite well. Books similarly. However, magazines such as Astronomy and Sky and Telescope have a lot more graphic content. I find them not quite as handy. Pages load more slowly and it takes time to go back and forth.

However, wireless and mobile platforms are only a few years old. I believe that technological advances in hardware and software will continue to improve the reading experience. Having said all that, I still will use much more often my printed books for astronomy, vs. my mobile apps, as long as I live.


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Rick Woods
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: GeneT]
      #5660564 - 02/03/13 06:50 PM

Am I mistaken, or is much of the bandwidth for this wireless downloading coming at the expense of frequencies used by radio astronomy?

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helpwanted
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: Rick Woods]
      #5660727 - 02/03/13 08:57 PM

"wireless and mobile platforms are only a few years old"

Pagers date back to 1959, both wireless and mobile


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GeneT
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: helpwanted]
      #5660866 - 02/03/13 10:56 PM

Quote:

"wireless and mobile platforms are only a few years old" Pagers date back to 1959, both wireless and mobile




Technically true. My point is the development of smart phones and Tablets and apps. These developments are shifting reading content to these applications, and away from printed materials.


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GeneT
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: Rick Woods]
      #5660870 - 02/03/13 10:58 PM

Quote:

Am I mistaken, or is much of the bandwidth for this wireless downloading coming at the expense of frequencies used by radio astronomy?




Good question! It is becoming difficult to keep up with bandwidth requirements among all the users.


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faackanders2
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: GeneT]
      #5660973 - 02/04/13 12:15 AM

Read Barnes and Nobles may be next book store to go.

Would there be any other bookstore left?


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bicparker
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: Tony Flanders]
      #5661048 - 02/04/13 01:29 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:


.....Electronic media in both current and past popular forms has shown comparatively short longevity.




I'm not sure any of that is true now, or in the near future anyway.




I agree. That particular problem crept up on us unaware early in the computer age, but it became widely recognized a couple of decades ago. Since then, major strides have been made in reproducing and distributing information to make sure that it lasts a very long time.




What do you mean by "very long time"? I'm talking in terms of hundreds of years.

Do you have in mind some specific solution that is actually in existence and being implemented or actually in wide use? I don't know of one to the scales to which I am referring. You are right in saying that this is a recognized problem. There is a lot of talk going on amongst various US and European groups and task forces, but they are, at best trying to figure out a 50 year strategy. The actual storage solutions are about as elusive as new battery technologies. There are several ideas, but nothing in widespread use. The actual strides you are talking about are simply not there, yet.

The most common strategy used by many governmental units is to "refresh" data onto new media every now and then, but that is only a temporary patch. And it does not address format incompatibilities.

Unfortunately, especially when talking about government records regarding things like real property transactions (which require the ability to be stored for hundreds of years), there aren't any solutions that are verified to have lifetimes that can be measured beyond 50 years. And even if there were such a solution, the readable/retrievable formats of storage (i.e., physical block and track layouts on media, logical file layouts, formats, character sets used, et al) used are too variable and include several proprietary formats, some of which are becoming indecipherable due to the documentation of their formats being lost (ironically because they are being stored electronic media, as well). It is not just about the media, but also about the formats.

I think we are going to see this situation get a bit worse before it gets better. It seems that humanity generally needs a crucible to go through before it takes steps it needs to rectify the problems that created the crucible in the first place. Perhaps in 50 years when some company wants to recover shale oil or some other desperately needed resource and it finds out that all of the mineral rights records were recorded in Quattro Pro files that are on degraded 3.5" magnetic disks, then possibly something will be done about it.


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Rick Woods
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Re: How Long Will Printed Books Be Available? new [Re: bicparker]
      #5661068 - 02/04/13 02:07 AM

Quote:

The most common strategy used by many governmental units is to "refresh" data onto new media every now and then, but that is only a temporary patch. And it does not address format incompatibilities.




Yes. And in an extreme situation - say, a global war or asteroid impact, something that would mean the end of civilization as we know it - there may be no retrieval technology available at all. These mass storage devices would be completely useless. Only analog media - books - would have a chance of still being available when they were needed.

I don't understand why we leap so gleefully into new technology to the exclusion of the old, which has served so faithfully and effectively for centuries. Digital media seems like a wonderful and useful supplement; but certainly not a replacement.

A little circumspection is definitely in order!


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