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Nick Rose
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Reged: 11/01/10

Loc: San Mateo, CA
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Ruimteman]
      #5673175 - 02/10/13 10:12 PM

I know North America wont see it during closet approach but how can I figure out where and when I can see 2012 DA14 in North America.

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Centaur
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Reged: 07/12/04

Loc: Chicago
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Nick Rose]
      #5673198 - 02/10/13 10:23 PM

Quote:

I know North America wont see it during closet approach but how can I figure out where and when I can see 2012 DA14 in North America.




Nick, for us it will appear north of the Big Dipper during the early evening, but will have dimmed to about the eleventh or twelfth magnitude.


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Darren Drake
Carpal Tunnel
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Reged: 10/09/02

Loc: Chicagoland
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Centaur]
      #5674140 - 02/11/13 02:14 PM

Curt as a fellow Chicagolander do you have any way no acquire an ephemeris for us for this thing?? What evening is it visible near the big dipper???

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Centaur
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Reged: 07/12/04

Loc: Chicago
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Darren Drake]
      #5674176 - 02/11/13 02:41 PM

Quote:

Curt as a fellow Chicagolander do you have any way no acquire an ephemeris for us for this thing?? What evening is it visible near the big dipper???




In the case of such a nearby object, Darren, as you seem to understand, a geocentric ephemeris or star chart is of little use on the day of closest approach. That's why you do not see them displayed on my website for this particular asteroid.

My general advice is to download my friend Aldo Vitagliano's free Solex astronomical numerical integration program: http://main.chemistry.unina.it/~alvitagl/solex . Aldo is an Italian professor and a member of this message board. Choose option "G" to enter your Geographic Coordinates, and then option "V" for Adaptive Stepsize which is necessary for such a close approach. Finally, choose option "T" for Topocentric (your location's) celestial coordinates.

For North Americans the asteroid will be dimly visible only by telescope north of the Big Dipper during the evening of 2013 FEB 15.

EDIT: See amended information two posts below.

Edited by Centaur (02/11/13 04:05 PM)


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cadfour
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Reged: 07/26/12

Loc: Melbourne, Florida
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Darren Drake]
      #5674191 - 02/11/13 02:58 PM

I have a few questions regarding this near "hit" asteroid.

1. Is it just a matter of time that this asteroid missed us? In other words, does the path of this asteroid actually cross the path of where "we were" or where "we are heading" by about 15 minutes? Does Earth actually cross it's path?

2. Which side is the asteroid on..the side we are heading or the side we are leaving?

3. If this asteroid actually does cross Earth's path, has anyone plotted where that path crosses on the face of the planet? For example, if the path of the asteroid were a laser, where would that laser hit the surface as we passed by?


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Centaur
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Reged: 07/12/04

Loc: Chicago
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Darren Drake]
      #5674216 - 02/11/13 03:17 PM

Whoops, Darren, I just realized you will not have the data in Solex for asteroid 2012 DA14. Aldo had e-mailed that to me.

For my location in Arlington Heights, Illinois on 2012 FEB 15, below are the asteroid's coordinates.

18:00 CST RA 13:10:35.2 Dec N 74° 13' 52"
19:00 CST RA 13:38:25.2 Dec N 78° 04' 24"
20:00 CST RA 14:10:01.9 Dec N 80° 44' 11"
21:00 CST RA 14:45:39.9 Dec N 82° 37' 17"
22:00 CST RA 15:25:02.5 Dec N 83° 57' 20"
23:00 CST RA 16:07:02.5 Dec N 84° 52' 58"


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Centaur
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Reged: 07/12/04

Loc: Chicago
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: cadfour]
      #5674264 - 02/11/13 03:35 PM

Quote:

I have a few questions regarding this near "hit" asteroid.

1. Is it just a matter of time that this asteroid missed us? In other words, does the path of this asteroid actually cross the path of where "we were" or where "we are heading" by about 15 minutes? Does Earth actually cross it's path?

2. Which side is the asteroid on..the side we are heading or the side we are leaving?

3. If this asteroid actually does cross Earth's path, has anyone plotted where that path crosses on the face of the planet? For example, if the path of the asteroid were a laser, where would that laser hit the surface as we passed by?




The overriding point is that the asteroid's orbit will be dramatically changed during its close passage of Earth as demonstrated in my overhead diagram: www.CurtRenz.com/asteroids . So its orbit cannot be permanently fixed in space, which renders it impossible to properly answer your question #1.

The asteroid will be passing from the south toward the north as it moves through its ascending node while slightly further from the Sun than the Earth. In other words, it will be passing the Earth on our night side while drifting from south to north as both objects maintain a similar pace as they orbit the Sun. The orbital change during passage will dramatically alter the asteroid's perihelion point as seen in my graphic. During this week the asteroid's heliocentric speed relative to the Earth will alternate among slightly faster, slower and faster as demonstrated by my same graphic. So any answer to your question #2 would involve ambiguities.

Your question #3 is addressed in my answer for #1.


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Darren Drake
Carpal Tunnel
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Reged: 10/09/02

Loc: Chicagoland
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Centaur]
      #5674325 - 02/11/13 04:11 PM

Quote:

Whoops, Darren, I just realized you will not have the data in Solex for asteroid 2012 DA14. Aldo had e-mailed that to me.

For my location in Arlington Heights, Illinois on 2012 FEB 15, below are the asteroid's coordinates.

18:00 CST RA 13:10:35.2 Dec N 74° 13' 52"
19:00 CST RA 13:38:25.2 Dec N 78° 04' 24"
20:00 CST RA 14:10:01.9 Dec N 80° 44' 11"
21:00 CST RA 14:45:39.9 Dec N 82° 37' 17"
22:00 CST RA 15:25:02.5 Dec N 83° 57' 20"
23:00 CST RA 16:07:02.5 Dec N 84° 52' 58"




Since I am scheduled to work that night at the space center do you have the coordinates for later that night? 11:30 is about the soonest I can go for it...Thanks


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Centaur
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Reged: 07/12/04

Loc: Chicago
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Darren Drake]
      #5674348 - 02/11/13 04:22 PM

Quote:

Since I am scheduled to work that night at the space center do you have the coordinates for later that night? 11:30 is about the soonest I can go for it...Thanks




After midnight the fast moving object will be dimmer than 13th magnitude. The forecast is for snow showers. Do you really want me to go through the rather involved effort again?


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cadfour
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Reged: 07/26/12

Loc: Melbourne, Florida
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Darren Drake]
      #5674407 - 02/11/13 04:41 PM

Thanks Curt. Your diagram and explanation helped me visualize the path of the asteroid. I understand now, it's not as easy as saying...."where would it have hit?"

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Darren Drake
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Reged: 10/09/02

Loc: Chicagoland
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: cadfour]
      #5674448 - 02/11/13 04:57 PM

No need if it's that involved. Thanks

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Centaur
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Reged: 07/12/04

Loc: Chicago
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Darren Drake]
      #5674457 - 02/11/13 05:04 PM

Quote:

No need if it's that involved. Thanks




"Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime."
Chinese Proverb

If you'd really like to know, Darren, then follow the directions I gave for downloading and using Solex. Aldo's e-mail address is on the Solex website. Ask him to e-mail you the file for Asteroid 2012 DA14.


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Centaur
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Reged: 07/12/04

Loc: Chicago
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined [Re: cadfour]
      #5674514 - 02/11/13 05:37 PM

Quote:

Thanks Curt. Your diagram and explanation helped me visualize the path of the asteroid. I understand now, it's not as easy as saying...."where would it have hit?"




You’re welcome, Mike. Thanks for understanding. For Kepler, two-body calculations of celestial mechanics were easy. Add a third body, and it can become incredibly complex, almost chaotic. It gave Newton headaches.

For the major planets we have theoretical orbits for which we have formulae for making minor adjustments over time. For minor bodies, including Pluto, no long term theories have been devised for their orbits. We must rely on osculating orbital elements. Those are given for a particular epoch. The body’s position and velocity are then extrapolated relative to the Sun and nothing else. Those elements indicate how the body would move if the only two bodies in the universe were it and the Sun. In reality, the body quickly begins to deviate from the osculating orbit mainly due to the presence of planets. When a minor body gets really close to a major planet (such as asteroid 2012 DA14 this week) its osculating orbit and elements change quite dramatically. Of course those are always changing to some degree even when far from major planets. So this amplifies my mention of an asteroid’s orbit not being fixed in space.


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Unknownastron
professor emeritus
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Reged: 04/06/05

Loc: CatsEye Observatory,Rural Sout...
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Centaur]
      #5675055 - 02/12/13 12:22 AM

Here is a link to the article on the asteriod pass from Sky and Telescope website:

http://www.skyandtelescope.com/observing/highlights/Asteroid-DA14-to-Zip-Past...

The article has a very rough chart showing the general direction, but it also has a link to JPL and gives the instructions how to create an ephemeris for your specific latitude and longitude. I hand plotted it on a chart. Old school, but it works.
Clear skies and clean glass,
Mike


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Ruimteman
super member


Reged: 04/03/12

Loc: Tokyo
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Unknownastron]
      #5675225 - 02/12/13 03:49 AM

How about trying the website I suggested earlier in this tread? All you have to do is input your location. It generates nice maps for you.

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*skyguy*
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Reged: 12/31/08

Loc: Western New York
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Ruimteman]
      #5675951 - 02/12/13 02:20 PM

Quote:

How about trying the website I suggested earlier in this tread? All you have to do is input your location. It generates nice maps for you.




The "Visual SAT-Flare Tracker 3D" website is great! Thanks for the suggestion.

http://www.satflare.com/


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WillCarney
Pooh-Bah
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Reged: 10/08/09

Loc: Bloomington, ILL
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: *skyguy*]
      #5677893 - 02/13/13 03:43 PM

I use Cartes du Ciel with current updates. It predicts the asteroid position rather well. Key is putting in your location and altitude. Even being 50 miles apart will change your sky position since this one's so close.

They are predicting partly cloudy which probably means total cloud cover for me. Just like today. Partly cloudy predicted but total cloud cover due to jets. William


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Tom Laskowski
super member


Reged: 04/28/08

Loc: South Bend, Indiana, USA
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: WillCarney]
      #5678935 - 02/14/13 08:15 AM

100% chance of snow here Friday night but it will be lake-effect snow and we might have some breaks in the clouds.

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drbyyz
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Reged: 11/04/12

Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Tom Laskowski]
      #5679137 - 02/14/13 10:37 AM

For those still looking for info on how to see this. Sky Safari pro/plus recently updated their predictions for it, so it should be pretty accurate to use. I may sit down later today and compare theirs with some other sites and see how they compare.

Other than that I'm looking forward to tracking this guy down tomorrow night. Will be mag 11+ and not moving terribly fast, but I'm sure I can wrangle it. I'd like to see motion through the eyepiece but it might be just on the verge of that, so a few field sketches should do it.


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Mark9473
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Reged: 07/21/05

Loc: 51°N 4°E
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined [Re: WillCarney]
      #5679710 - 02/14/13 03:10 PM

Quote:

I use Cartes du Ciel with current updates. It predicts the asteroid position rather well.



Can you confirm that CdC takes into account the perturbations to the object's orbit by the Earth's gravity field at the moment of the fly-by?

If it's just a Keplerian calculation based on the current orbital parameters, it can't possibly be correct.


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