Return to the Cloudy Nights Telescope Reviews home pageAstronomics discounts for Cloudy Nights members
· Get a Cloudy Nights T-Shirt · Submit a Review / Article

Click here if you are having trouble logging into the forums

Privacy Policy | Please read our Terms of Service | Signup and Troubleshooting FAQ | Problems? PM a Red or a Green Gu… uh, User

Speciality Forums >> Science! Astronomy & Space Exploration, and Others

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | (show all)
Glassthrower
Vendor - Galactic Stone & Ironworks
*****

Reged: 04/07/05

Loc: Oort Cloud 9
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: Kaelin]
      #5682091 - 02/15/13 06:11 PM

I recently spoke to a friend of mine who works at the University of Hawaii's institute of astronomy. One of the highly-placed directors there (who is new) is hostile towards meteoritics and openly insults meteoritics as not being relevant to science of astronomy. This Russian event makes that director sound like a fool.

I can't wait to see what is recovered. An event like this must have dropped meteorites. Here in the USA, we have entities like Galactic Analytics that could have confirmed the drop and plotted the strewnfield.

Beware any meteorites offered for sale from this fall - especially this early in the recovery. They will be fakes. It will take some time for genuine specimens to hit the market, if they do at all.

Best regards,

MikeG

PS - we better keep funding our "eyes on the skies" programs!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jason H.
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 11/23/07

Loc: Central Florida
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: Qwickdraw]
      #5682420 - 02/15/13 09:48 PM

This video catches the cloud, then multiple sonic booms and echoes, smashing glass, car alarms going off, and gives a good sense of the scale and sense of urgency after the guys run down the block and image part of the other end of the trail and people coming out of buildings.

Here's the link.

Edit adding addtional short but wow sonic booms video link

I bet they fund asteroid searches now

Jason H.

Edited by Jason H. (02/15/13 11:13 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
shawnhar
Post Laureate
*****

Reged: 06/25/10

Loc: Knoxville, TN
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: Jason H.]
      #5682671 - 02/16/13 12:37 AM

Tunguska doesn't seem so mysterious anymore.
If this had happened over Moscow in the 70's we would have been nuked for sure.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
deSitter
Still in Old School


Reged: 12/09/04

Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: shawnhar]
      #5682782 - 02/16/13 03:11 AM

Good point, this sets to the books the active cause of that earlier event, and could possibly calibrate it - and in the very same part of the world, on the very day of a near miss - ... gives pause.

-drl


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Qwickdraw
Pooh-Bah
*****

Reged: 03/03/12

Loc: Ann Arbor, MI
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: Jarad]
      #5682924 - 02/16/13 08:05 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Ravenous may have gotten it right but for the wrong reasons.




No, he nailed it right on. He noted that DA14's orbit is south to north, and correctly pointed out that in order to hit so far north in the northern hemisphere this bolide couldn't have been travelling in that direction. He didn't have the additional info that the smoke trail indicated the bolide was actually travelling north to south, but he figured out from the geometry of the earth that it could not be south to north.

Good attention to detail on his part.

Jarad




Jarad,

Not to beat a dead horse but I respectfully disagree.
In his post Ravenous made no reference to Earth geometry references as a reason for them not being companions. His point was if it had been the same orbit as DA14 it would be very doubtful that it could have landed in the northern hemisphere. Key word here which I agree with is "doubtful ". I am not sure of all of the orbital elements nor do they matter for the purpose of this discussion as it was all speculation at the time but if the meteor would have been either leading or lagging DA14 by the correct amount to place it in a closer approach it could have been possible for Earth’s gravity to capture it and swing it around until it eventually made a northern hemisphere impact. Again and as Ravenous pointed out, this would be unlikely but IMO still possible.

Anyways, it seems enough data is now in to rule out this possiblity.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillFerris
Post Laureate
*****

Reged: 07/17/04

Loc: Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: Jarad]
      #5684036 - 02/16/13 06:36 PM

This is just too big a coincidence for astrometrists not to invest the time to explore in detail the possibility that this meteoroid and DA14 are linked. I don't care what NASA's--or anyone else's--instant analysis suggests, the odds of the two such events happening on the same day are astronomical. It's much more likely that the objects are linked or related in some way.

Bill in Flag

Quote:

Ravenous nailed it. NASA has an update here. It says:

"According to NASA scientists, the trajectory of the Russian meteorite was significantly different than the trajectory of the asteroid 2012 DA14, making it a completely unrelated object. Information is still being collected about the Russian meteorite and analysis is preliminary at this point. In videos of the meteor, it is seen to pass from left to right in front of the rising sun, which means it was traveling from north to south. Asteroid DA14's trajectory is in the opposite direction, from south to north."

Jarad




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ira
Carpal Tunnel
*****

Reged: 08/22/10

Loc: Mitzpe Ramon, Israel
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: BillFerris]
      #5684055 - 02/16/13 06:49 PM

I'm still waiting for the third shoe to drop.

/Ira


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ebyl
super member


Reged: 07/04/12

Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: BillFerris]
      #5684187 - 02/16/13 08:27 PM

Quote:

This is just too big a coincidence for astrometrists not to invest the time to explore in detail the possibility that this meteoroid and DA14 are linked. I don't care what NASA's--or anyone else's--instant analysis suggests, the odds of the two such events happening on the same day are astronomical. It's much more likely that the objects are linked or related in some way.




The problem with that is someone needs to provide a theory for how this would happen before anyone, including myself, will take it seriously. Everything we know right now shows the meteor over Russia was not related in any way to 2012 DA14. If you, or anyone else, can provide some evidence besides timing (which is not evidence at all because it legitimately can be chalked up to coincidence), I'm sure people will be more than happy to take a gander.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Glassthrower
Vendor - Galactic Stone & Ironworks
*****

Reged: 04/07/05

Loc: Oort Cloud 9
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: Ebyl]
      #5684196 - 02/16/13 08:38 PM

This explanation was recently posted to the Meteorite mailing list by Dr. Marco Langbroek :

Quote:



"I still see suggestions popping up on this list about a possible link between 2012 DA14 and the Russian meteor.

I want to point out that even without an accurate trajectory for the Russian bolide, a link with 2012 DA14 can be 100% rejected. The orbital geometry of 2012 DA14 and the latitude of 55 N for the Russian bolide make this impossible.

2012 DA14 and any fragments in a swarm in similar orbit, would approach the earth from deep south. The geocentric radiant for the orbit of 2012 DA14 is at declination -81 degrees. This means 2012 DA14 fragments approach earth almost parallel to the earth polar axis, coming from the south. I.e. they approach towards the south pole and the southern hemisphere.

This means fragments can impact on the southern hemisphere, but not on the northern hemisphere (except very low latitudes north if we take earth gravitational curvature of the final trajectory in account). Because the northern hemisphere, and certainly a place as far north as 55 N, is at the "far side" of the earth globe as seen from the 2012 DA14 entry direction.

Compare it with a car. A bird coming in frontal will always hit the front of the car - it cannot hit the back of the car. Chelyabinsk at 55 North latitude is "the back of the car" in this comparison, given the approach direction of 2012 DA 14 and any fragments of it."






I think that explains it pretty well.

Another list member (Chris Peterson), explained it thusly :

Quote:


It takes a large amount of energy to split a massive body into components with radically different orbits (and that these bodies have radically different orbits is known beyond reasonable doubt). That energy could be supplied explosively, as when a pair of bodies collide. But that amount of energy would create a lot of debris, which has not been observed. It is also statistically unlikely for it to occur very close to the Earth (as it would have to). Indeed, that is statistically much less likely than the simple passage of two bodies close to the Earth within a few hours of each other.

The other mechanism for creating different orbits is the actual one that describes much of what we see in terms of minor bodies in the Solar System, which is gravitational perturbation. What frequently goes unappreciated, however, is that three bodies are required. These are most often the asteroid/comet, Jupiter, and the Sun, but certainly other bodies are occasionally involved. The only potential body that could set up these different orbits so shortly before impact would be the Moon. But I don't believe that DA14 passed closely enough to the Moon to allow a tidal separation of asteroid components followed by the complex sort of "slingshot" effect that would be required to so dramatically change the inclination and velocity of the smaller component. Remember, DA14 has been under observation for a year.

So that's what I mean when I say that there seems to be no reasonable or likely scenario that could explain these bodies being related. But the odds of two such bodies being where they were at that time are not particularly long at all.





Both of those persons are very knowledgeable and my math stinks - so without checking the math, I trust their explanations.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ebyl
super member


Reged: 07/04/12

Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: Glassthrower]
      #5684220 - 02/16/13 08:52 PM

Yep, that's exactly what I'm saying. A lot of people who know what they're doing have looked at this and determined it wasn't related. Until evidence or a theory emerges to challenge that, the default assumption has to be the timing was just a coincidence.

Edited by Ebyl (02/16/13 08:53 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Qwickdraw
Pooh-Bah
*****

Reged: 03/03/12

Loc: Ann Arbor, MI
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: Glassthrower]
      #5684719 - 02/17/13 07:25 AM

Quote:


Both of those persons are very knowledgeable and my math stinks - so without checking the math, I trust their explanations.






I may not understand the whole concept but do know that given the correct mass, speed and altitude of an object you can have it swing all the way around a planet and leave orbit again, ala Apollo 13 or any number of other examples. That said, it is not hard to imagine that you can also have it approach from one hemisphere and fail to have enough escape velocity or mass and impact on the opposite hemisphere from its origin. So my point is what hemisphere it landed in should not entirely rule out that it originated from the opposite. At least this is my understanding of orbital physics.
I am not saying this is likely but only possible.

If I am wrong, please feel free to correct me.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mister T
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 02/01/08

Loc: Upstate NY
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: Qwickdraw]
      #5684838 - 02/17/13 09:33 AM

the odds of it happening are 100% because IT HAPPENED!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
shawnhar
Post Laureate
*****

Reged: 06/25/10

Loc: Knoxville, TN
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: BillFerris]
      #5684916 - 02/17/13 10:37 AM

Quote:

This is just too big a coincidence for astrometrists not to invest the time to explore in detail the possibility that this meteoroid and DA14 are linked. I don't care what NASA's--or anyone else's--instant analysis suggests, the odds of the two such events happening on the same day are astronomical. It's much more likely that the objects are linked or related in some way.

Bill in Flag




Consider this...There were 2 babies born yesterday, each with 6 fingers on the right hand, within hours of each other. One in China and one in Argentina. This defect is exceedingly rare, les than one in 10 million births.
Are they related?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mister T
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 02/01/08

Loc: Upstate NY
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: shawnhar]
      #5684952 - 02/17/13 10:56 AM

Not if they are aliens babies from the ship that landed in Russia!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Qwickdraw
Pooh-Bah
*****

Reged: 03/03/12

Loc: Ann Arbor, MI
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: shawnhar]
      #5685150 - 02/17/13 12:45 PM

Quote:

Quote:

This is just too big a coincidence for astrometrists not to invest the time to explore in detail the possibility that this meteoroid and DA14 are linked. I don't care what NASA's--or anyone else's--instant analysis suggests, the odds of the two such events happening on the same day are astronomical. It's much more likely that the objects are linked or related in some way.

Bill in Flag




Consider this...There were 2 babies born yesterday, each with 6 fingers on the right hand, within hours of each other. One in China and one in Argentina. This defect is exceedingly rare, les than one in 10 million births.
Are they related?




I dont know if they are related, you failed to point out who the parents are and we would have to trace the family tree.

Edited by Qwickdraw (02/17/13 05:37 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillFerris
Post Laureate
*****

Reged: 07/17/04

Loc: Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: shawnhar]
      #5685168 - 02/17/13 12:55 PM

Polydactyly (many fingers or toes) is considered a common congenital defect and occurs in 1 out of 500 to 1,000 births in the United States. Given that 450,000 and 500,000 newborns enter the world population each day, odds are 500 to 1,000 babies are born each day with polydactyly. Check out the Boston Children's Hospital website for more information on available treatments of this common defect.

How is a human congenital birth defect analagous to the incidence of large meteoroidal or small asteroidal bodies hitting or passing near Earth?

Bill in Flag

Quote:

Quote:

This is just too big a coincidence for astrometrists not to invest the time to explore in detail the possibility that this meteoroid and DA14 are linked. I don't care what NASA's--or anyone else's--instant analysis suggests, the odds of the two such events happening on the same day are astronomical. It's much more likely that the objects are linked or related in some way.

Bill in Flag




Consider this...There were 2 babies born yesterday, each with 6 fingers on the right hand, within hours of each other. One in China and one in Argentina. This defect is exceedingly rare, les than one in 10 million births.
Are they related?




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
llanitedave
Humble Megalomaniac
*****

Reged: 09/26/05

Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: BillFerris]
      #5686046 - 02/17/13 09:50 PM

I don't know if polydactyly is a good example or not, but it's worth mentioning that our ability to detect close encounters with small objects is very new. Because most of these, like the Russian object, explode in Earth's atmosphere and/or end up in the oceans rather than causing craters, we really have no good estimates of their impact frequency. There will obviously be far more near misses than there are impacts.

The lesson to take away isn't so much that this is an almost inconceivably unlikely coincidence, but that close approaches and physical impacts with small bodies are a lot more common than we used to think.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Scott Horstman
Vendor - Backyard Observatories
*****

Reged: 03/11/04

Loc: Here, There and Everywhere
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: llanitedave]
      #5686064 - 02/17/13 10:02 PM

There was a smaller one on the west coast that evening as well.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/on-heels-of-russia-mete...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Glassthrower
Vendor - Galactic Stone & Ironworks
*****

Reged: 04/07/05

Loc: Oort Cloud 9
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? new [Re: Scott Horstman]
      #5686123 - 02/17/13 10:45 PM

What I find a little disconcerting is that the Russian object slipped through undetected, despite hundreds of telescopes being pointed skyward for a month prior while tracking DA14. The Russian object, despite having the power to destroy a city the size of Chicago (had the airburst happened much closer to ground level), falls below the size-threshold for detection using our current observing networks. This needs to be remedied.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Scott Horstman
Vendor - Backyard Observatories
*****

Reged: 03/11/04

Loc: Here, There and Everywhere
Re: Meet DA14's little brother? [Re: Glassthrower]
      #5686169 - 02/17/13 11:16 PM

It's estimated that there are probably 500,000 NEOs the size of DA14 or larger and about 1% of that have been discovered. How many of the smaller ones that can do damage are there?
If it's any consolation, at least we're finding a lot of the bigger ones.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skWA0wg3vZk


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | (show all)


Extra information
3 registered and 4 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  LivingNDixie, FirstSight, JayinUT 

Print Thread

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled


Thread views: 3496

Jump to

CN Forums Home


Cloudy Nights LLC
Cloudy Nights Sponsor: Astronomics