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WillCarney
Pooh-Bah
*****

Reged: 10/08/09

Loc: Bloomington, ILL
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Mark9473]
      #5679826 - 02/14/13 04:21 PM

No idea how it's calculated. I don't have access to the source code. The FAQ and such does not mention it. It uses data elements from MPC for it's calculations. So I am hoping if CDC does not take in account the change MPC will update the data after close approach. Then I can download an updated file. Either way I use CDC to control the mount to find the asteroid. There was a bug reported specifically due to 2012DA14 and fixed but I can't read French to find out what the problem was. William

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Mark9473
Postmaster
*****

Reged: 07/21/05

Loc: 51°N 4°E
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: WillCarney]
      #5679909 - 02/14/13 05:15 PM

Well I ran CdC just now and the results are not even close to what the JPL site told me last week. Went and checked the bug report you mentioned and it's not all clear to me, but either way I'm not going to install beta version 3.7 now just for this one thing; I can manage with the JPL output.

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Ruimteman
member


Reged: 04/03/12

Loc: Tokyo
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Mark9473]
      #5680220 - 02/14/13 09:13 PM

The asteroid is just about lunar distance now over Antarctica. Coming in at 6.3km/second. Should start snowing here soon, but might just clear enough by tonight.

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Darren Drake
Carpal Tunnel
*****

Reged: 10/09/02

Loc: Chicagoland
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Ruimteman]
      #5680339 - 02/14/13 10:33 PM

I ran the motion using skysafari pro. It spends the longest time near the Small Magellanic Cloud until about 6AM CST 2/15 and then really takes off. By noon its really moving like nothing else I've seen. By around 5 PM it pops up in the north and flies up to around the little dipper. To bad its gonna be cloudy here in Chicagoland.

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Nick Rose
super member


Reged: 11/01/10

Loc: San Mateo, CA
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Darren Drake]
      #5680516 - 02/15/13 01:00 AM

It will be clear hear in the Bay Area so I will try and get a picture of it.

Whats the best way to capture it? Just park the scope in a area where DA14 will pass and just continue to take pictures until you see movement? I'll be able to do 200sec. unguided.


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leviathan
sage


Reged: 11/29/11

Loc: Azerbaijan
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Nick Rose]
      #5680571 - 02/15/13 02:02 AM

Today very bright bolid flew over Chelyabinsk in Russia:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7c-0iwBEswE

You can find a lot of videos on Youtube. Maybe that was some small part of 2012 DA14.


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core
Pooh-Bah
*****

Reged: 02/23/08

Loc: Mostly in Norman, OK
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: leviathan]
      #5680585 - 02/15/13 02:26 AM

wow, even as coincidences go (2012 DA14 'herding' smaller bodies?), watching the various dash cam videos coming out now is a little disquieting.

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Ruimteman
member


Reged: 04/03/12

Loc: Tokyo
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: core]
      #5680654 - 02/15/13 03:46 AM

http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/02/15/breaking_huge_meteor_expl...
This is by Phil Plait with lots of videos.


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WillCarney
Pooh-Bah
*****

Reged: 10/08/09

Loc: Bloomington, ILL
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Ruimteman]
      #5680895 - 02/15/13 09:00 AM

The plots are all over the place. The Arlington position for 21:00 is 14 45 39, 82 37 17. NASA put's my Bloomington at 12 03 51, +42 32 and CDC puts it as 15 37 31, 84 11 51.

It's going to be cloudy at my location so it does not matter that much. But for future events it does. William


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Centaur
Vendor
*****

Reged: 07/12/04

Loc: Chicago
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Mark9473]
      #5682137 - 02/15/13 06:41 PM

Quote:


If it's just a Keplerian calculation based on the current orbital parameters, it can't possibly be correct.




Indeed, Mark, you are correct. Normally osculating orbital elements are just fine as long as the epoch is fairly nearby. In the case of Asteroid 2012 DA14 these fail miserably today. They assume Kepler’s two-body orbits: Sun and asteroid. In this case, elements for the epoch at a certain hour are not good for the next hour. However, it is this method that most sources are using. It results in great inaccuracies today.

For the positions I gave as viewed from Arlington Heights, Illinois, I relied on the Solex astronomical numerical integration program. That program does give osculating elements for any chosen epoch, but the positions I posted did not invoke those elements. Instead I took the hourly positions directly from numerical integration which ignores the method of Kepler. It continuously takes perturbations into account by relying on Newton’s two more basic force equations of motion and gravitation.


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Ebyl
super member


Reged: 07/04/12

Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Centaur]
      #5682214 - 02/15/13 07:32 PM

I have no idea if this has been suggested elsewhere, but if you haven't already, check out NASA's Eyes on the Solar System. It's a real time interactive simulation of the solar system and a good number of the objects (man made and natural) in it.

http://eyes.nasa.gov/

2012 DA14 is one of the asteroids.


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Centaur
Vendor
*****

Reged: 07/12/04

Loc: Chicago
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: WillCarney]
      #5682456 - 02/15/13 10:08 PM

Quote:

The plots are all over the place. The Arlington position for 21:00 is 14 45 39, 82 37 17. NASA put's my Bloomington at 12 03 51, +42 32 and CDC puts it as 15 37 31, 84 11 51.





I only use JPL and MPC for the magnitude parameters of a minor body, unless Solex does not have the body in its data base. I just now checked and both JPL and MPC are using 2013 APR 18 as the epoch for Asteroid 2012 DA14. The updated solution date (this afternoon for JPL) only indicates when the accuracy of the elements was improved; it is not the epoch date. The epoch date is the moment for which it is assumed that everything disappears from the universe except the Sun and the particular minor body. Past and future perturbations are ignored. In the case of Asteroid 2012 DA14, that would result in substantial inaccuracies today, even if its coordinates are converted to topocentric (location on Earth’s surface).

Edited by Centaur (02/15/13 10:29 PM)


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Dave O
sage
*****

Reged: 12/21/11

Loc: Sri Lanka
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Centaur]
      #5684649 - 02/17/13 05:31 AM

From Nick Rose in the other (now locked) thread ...

Quote:

Here is the animation I made from 100 images each are 10sec binned 1x1.

http://youtu.be/_kQivMIggwg





Awesome! Thanks so much for sharing!


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leviathan
sage


Reged: 11/29/11

Loc: Azerbaijan
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Dave O]
      #5684672 - 02/17/13 06:04 AM

I was lucky to observe it from Azerbaijan. I also made some animation from 30 sec photos:

http://astronomy.az/wp-content/gallery/solar/2012%20DA14.gif


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Nick Rose
super member


Reged: 11/01/10

Loc: San Mateo, CA
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined new [Re: Dave O]
      #5685302 - 02/17/13 02:07 PM

Thank you Dave O for sharing my post from the other thread.

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PhilCo126
Post Laureate


Reged: 01/14/05

Loc: coastline of Belgium
Re: NEO Asteroid Recovered - New Parameters Determined [Re: Nick Rose]
      #5927638 - 06/18/13 02:17 PM

It looks like 2014 DA14 was moving 48 Arc minutes/ minute against the background stars... that's a full Moon every 45 seconds.

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