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Glen A W
professor emeritus


Reged: 07/04/08

Loc: USA
Comet ISON - Cooked well done?
      #6215424 - 11/25/13 03:24 PM

It was looking so good the past couple of weeks, but now the news is sounding rather poor. They make it sound like the reduction in molecular emission lines is pretty telling about the comet having disintegrated.

Predictions, opinions, or prophecies, anyone?

http://www.skyandtelescope.com/news/home/Comet-ISON-Becomes-a-Nail-Biter-2333...

http://www.isoncampaign.org/Present


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dyslexic nam
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Reged: 01/28/08

Loc: PEI, Canada
Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Glen A W]
      #6215442 - 11/25/13 03:32 PM

Booooo!

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Unknownastron
professor emeritus
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Reged: 04/06/05

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: dyslexic nam]
      #6215548 - 11/25/13 04:13 PM

I have learned one fact over years of comet predictions of too many comets to mention: some of the predictions are dead on, some are partly right, some are wrong. Comets remain too unpredictable to know what will happen until it does. Not that predictions should not be made, just that scientific study of comets is at a similar level to weather predictions a century or more ago. Trying to predict anything more than a very short time in the future is not reliable.
Clear skies and clean glass,
Mike


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djeber2
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Reged: 07/02/04

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Unknownastron]
      #6216031 - 11/25/13 08:25 PM

Glen, thanks for the articles, does not sound promising at this time. I am glad I saw it when I did.

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BrooksObs
professor emeritus


Reged: 12/08/12

Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: djeber2]
      #6216287 - 11/25/13 10:55 PM

Watch the SOHO images November 27 to 29 , paying particular attention to the size of the camera's "bloom spikes" relative to the comet's head. Their dimensions are indicative of the comet's true brilliance at the time. The longer the bloom spikes, the brighter the comet is. When in the camera's field of view, brilliant objects like Venus (at superior conjunction) will have bloom spikes that span a large part camera's field. If ISON's spikes are very long on the 28th and remain fairly large throughout the 29th, then expect a show in the morning sky beginning toward the end of next week. If not...oh well.

If you are unsure what to be looking for on the SOHO images, take a look back at Comet Lovejoy's SOHO image loops. I'll try posting my interpretation of what I'm seeing (or not seeing!) at some point during the 28th, here on Cloudy Nights.

BrooksObs

Edited by BrooksObs (11/25/13 10:56 PM)


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StarWars
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Reged: 11/26/03

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BrooksObs]
      #6216322 - 11/25/13 11:27 PM



Most likely Cooked ....
730,000 miles from the Sun is Toasty close...


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Tonk
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Reged: 08/19/04

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: StarWars]
      #6216548 - 11/26/13 05:29 AM

Today on Comets-ML (yahoo group) the profesional astronomers are discussing the meaning of the rapid drop in production of various volatiles as measured using millimeter wavelength radio telescopes. Many are suggesting that the nucleus is now breaking up. This is backed up with some other experiments but yet others don't appear to be indicating this (possible lack of resolution and the effect of time dependency when looking at visual wavelenght data confuses things. Whereas millimeter wavelenth data is measuring events happening now)

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bartlebobton
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Reged: 11/26/13

Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6216694 - 11/26/13 09:07 AM

Hi ...

I tripped over this site through my excitement over Comet Ison... From my very very limited school boy physics... If you have an object moving through space at 60miles per/sec...that is anticipated to increase to a speed perhaps 200 miles p/sec ...why would anyone be surprised if Ison broke up... The friction at those speeds must be quite a force on an object composed of ice and rock, factor in the gravitational pull of the sun + temperature... why would it be a surprise to anyone if the comet does not pull through...and simply breaks up....
Reading some articles, not on these boards, makes me think astronomy is an art form and not a science...

Fingers and legs crossed though.... Hall (Hale) Bop was quite special...I was sad to see it go...there is something quite magical about it...


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MessiToM
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Reged: 12/21/09

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: bartlebobton]
      #6216762 - 11/26/13 09:41 AM

Umm.......no ^. It isn't like this is a 2 foot wide snowball ISON is several miles wide and may have enough material to burn off a lot and still be intact. Also. Where do you think FRICTION happens in space? There isn't any atmosphere.


Also. If this breaks up pre rather than post periphelon I will be SO bummed out!

Edited by MessiToM (11/26/13 09:45 AM)


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Octans
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Reged: 08/13/09

Loc: Santa Barbara, CA, USA
Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: bartlebobton]
      #6216776 - 11/26/13 09:46 AM

Quote:

Hi ...

I tripped over this site through my excitement over Comet Ison... From my very very limited school boy physics... If you have an object moving through space at 60miles per/sec...that is anticipated to increase to a speed perhaps 200 miles p/sec ...why would anyone be surprised if Ison broke up... The friction at those speeds must be quite a force on an object composed of ice and rock, factor in the gravitational pull of the sun + temperature... why would it be a surprise to anyone if the comet does not pull through...and simply breaks up....
Reading some articles, not on these boards, makes me think astronomy is an art form and not a science...

Fingers and legs crossed though.... Hall (Hale) Bop was quite special...I was sad to see it go...there is something quite magical about it...




Friction isn't really a factor since it's passing through a near vacuum -- the solar wind / corona of the Sun is very tenuous and is negligible when compared to other factors like the heat and tidal forces. I don't think it's so much that everyone would be surprised if it broke up as that everyone's still holding onto hope that it survives, given that we seen comets like C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy) in the past.


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dyslexic nam
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Reged: 01/28/08

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Octans]
      #6216799 - 11/26/13 09:57 AM

And for the record, I haven't yet read a post on ISON's possible/probable demise that expresses surprise. More like disappointment. People are simply hoping that ISON pulls through and puts on an amazing show.

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Tyranthrax
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Reged: 04/22/13

Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: dyslexic nam]
      #6216852 - 11/26/13 10:20 AM

when ever I root for a team or get my hopes up for a win I am like the kiss of death on that team. I've been chering for this thing for a few months now. . . I base my predition on no science wat so ever, just my record. I hear a fat lady warming up for ISON.

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bartlebobton
newbie


Reged: 11/26/13

Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tyranthrax]
      #6216875 - 11/26/13 10:35 AM

Hey... thanks for the friction/atmosphere lesson.... Am I right in saying there is resistance from the solar wind(s)...but it's not significant.... Perhaps that's a bit of generalisation ....BB

Edited by bartlebobton (11/26/13 10:38 AM)


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swalker
Imaging Editor - Sky & Telescope
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Reged: 01/22/07

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: bartlebobton]
      #6217009 - 11/26/13 11:32 AM

Don't write off the comet just yet. While those science observations are discouraging, we'll all know how it will shape up come Thursday. It does make for some late drama, that's for sure...

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MessiToM
scholastic sledgehammer
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Reged: 12/21/09

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: swalker]
      #6217030 - 11/26/13 11:49 AM

Thats for sure. A nail biter!

bartlebobton watch this .gif of solar wind affecting ISON and ENCKE
http://spaceweather.com/images2013/25nov13/ison_encke_nov19_23_crop_hi1a.gif?...


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boandpokey
sage
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Reged: 07/25/13

Loc: Auburndale, Fl
Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6217053 - 11/26/13 11:58 AM

all signs point to disintegration what a shame. I never got to see it. the weather here in the nonsunshine state the last 2 weeks has been terrible

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GlennLeDrew
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Reged: 06/18/08

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6217122 - 11/26/13 12:34 PM

The matter of 'friction' has been partly addressed, that being the the solar wind is a very very good vacuum. The solar wind, blowing at up to 400 km/s, will have a virtually instantaneous impact on the atoms and molecules driven off the nucleus, they being accelerated to the solar wind speed in very short order. For the dust particles, as we progress up in size from the really fine stuff to millimeter-size bits, the acceleration becomes progressively slower. For instance, the bits which result in meteor showers (when intersected by Earth) basically travel along the comet's orbit for years, gradually dispersing into an increasingly wide stream.

As to the gravitational force of the Sun, its only impact is the tidal stress resulting from the difference in attraction between the day and night sides on the comet. The day side is attracted more strongly than the opposite side, and this stress can pull the body apart. This is what happened to comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 when it passed very near to Jupiter not long before before its final plunge into Jove's atmosphere.

If you were to follow the comet's path--but with very good thermal protection--even at perihelion you would be in free fall and hence feel weightless. If your feet were pointing at the Sun, they would be attracted a tiny bit more strongly than would your head, but you would not feel this awfully slight stretching over a mere 6 feet. (Near the event horizon of a black hole, though, you would be ripped apart.) Over an object diameter of some kilometres, however, the gravitational gradient and hence tidal stress is sufficient to overcome the comet's weak self gravity and internal cohesion.


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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: GlennLeDrew]
      #6217264 - 11/26/13 01:46 PM

The news as of this afternoon is ISON's brightness has stopped declining and is showing a very slow rise. However one commentator states its only showing brightness curve of a slowly expanding dust cloud (Comets ML)

Its now entering the FOV of the STEREO-B COR2 camera (bottom left)

http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/behind/cor2/1024/20131126_15392...


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boandpokey
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Reged: 07/25/13

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6217308 - 11/26/13 02:15 PM

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/c3/1024/latest.html

is that ISON, the faint fuzzy dot in the lower left??

Edited by boandpokey (11/26/13 02:17 PM)


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boandpokey
sage
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Reged: 07/25/13

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6217319 - 11/26/13 02:21 PM

Tonk

thanks.. either way. very unimpressive compared to Lovejoy


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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6217342 - 11/26/13 02:34 PM

Quote:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/c3/1024/latest.html

is that ISON, the faint fuzzy dot in the lower left??






No you have wrong spacecraft and wrong camera - you have the SOHO LASCO C3 camera - see my link above - its the STEREO-B COR2 camera


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boandpokey
sage
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Reged: 07/25/13

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6217344 - 11/26/13 02:36 PM

well it should be visible in that one also???

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6217348 - 11/26/13 02:38 PM

No the FOV and position (direction to the sun) are entirely different between the two craft and their cameras

It will appear in SOHO C3 but not just yet

Here are some nice graphics showing when, where in each available SOHO, STEREO-A, STEREO-B camera

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/comet_ison/


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Tom Laskowski
super member


Reged: 04/28/08

Loc: South Bend, Indiana, USA
Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6217361 - 11/26/13 02:45 PM

Quote:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/c3/1024/latest.html

is that ISON, the faint fuzzy dot in the lower left??




I could be wrong, but the fuzzy thing in the image is M4 and the bright star to the left is Antares.


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bartlebobton
newbie


Reged: 11/26/13

Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: GlennLeDrew]
      #6217418 - 11/26/13 03:19 PM

Hi Glenn... thanks for taking the time to explain to me a little bit more friction, that's really informative...much appreciated... BB

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Special Ed
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6217488 - 11/26/13 03:49 PM

Quote:

...Here are some nice graphics showing when, where in each available SOHO, STEREO-A, STEREO-B camera

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/comet_ison/




Tony, thanks for this link.

Whether ISON disintegrates or not we will have an amazing view thanks to all those spacecraft out there.


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Philipp
member


Reged: 08/13/06

Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Special Ed]
      #6217646 - 11/26/13 05:09 PM

Here is an animation made from SECCHI images from Nov. 22nd to 26th (right until now): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_g6QXObU9w

I am still hoping for a nice surprise in the morning sky after perihelion!

Philipp


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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Philipp]
      #6217861 - 11/26/13 06:55 PM

Quote:

It will appear in SOHO C3 but not just yet




Its now four minutes from 27th November (UK) which is the day ISON enters the SOHO LASCO C3 field of view


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Mirzam
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Philipp]
      #6217873 - 11/26/13 06:59 PM

What puzzles me is why a reduction in a particular molecular emission would necessarily signify a breakup? It seems more logical to surmise that a reduction would mean removal of an outer compositional layer of material, or if the comet is homogeneous, then everything is suddenly "poof" gone. If the latter was true, then would not the reduction in emissions be a linear function of the remaining volume of the comet? If so, one could model the volume and see if the observations match a reasonable set of model assumptions. A simple break up should increase the emissions of a homogeneous body (due to increased surface area). Depending on the size of the fragments the emissions increase should persist if the fragments are large and decrease to zero if the comet is truly cooked and evaporated. It still looks pretty solid in the images.

JimC


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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Mirzam]
      #6217900 - 11/26/13 07:13 PM

Quote:

It still looks pretty solid in the images.




Visual images do not enable you to see anything of the solid nucleus. You are actually looking at a vast shroud of reflecting dust expelled from the comet. This is why observing at microwave frequecies lets you observe material that has left the surface within the last hour. Its actually days before that material would emerge through the dust shroud, so microwaves are good to see deeper and closer to the necleus.


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Mirzam
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6217910 - 11/26/13 07:19 PM

True. But they are not observing the nucleus as a solid object (as might be done by using linked radar antennae). They are looking at an emission line.

JimC

Edited by Mirzam (11/26/13 07:21 PM)


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Glen A W
professor emeritus


Reged: 07/04/08

Loc: USA
Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Mirzam]
      #6217924 - 11/26/13 07:25 PM

It's a matter of scale. The coma might be tens of thousands of miles across, depending upon the comet... The nucleus is probably only a couple of miles diameter for this comet.

The reduction in molecular emission was not for certain to begin with, and there are other interpretations. The best bet is to stay tuned. There is still plenty of chance for a great comet. No one knows what is happening exactly or what will happen.


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brianb11213
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: dyslexic nam]
      #6217928 - 11/26/13 07:29 PM

Quote:

And for the record, I haven't yet read a post on ISON's possible/probable demise that expresses surprise. More like disappointment.



Maybe. Surprise simply isn't logical: the indications for the last few months have been that there was next to no chance that the thing would survive perihelion.

Quote:

People are simply hoping that ISON pulls through and puts on an amazing show.



That really would be a surprise.

It's not a question of whether you see the glass as being half empty or half full, it's a question of what's in the glass. A tenth full of water would be better than completely full of vaccuum.


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Mirzam
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Glen A W]
      #6217929 - 11/26/13 07:29 PM

Bruce Gary's site has a new photo indicating that the nucleus is still very compact--i.e., any fragments must be very close together.

Gary latest obs

JimC


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brianb11213
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Mirzam]
      #6217946 - 11/26/13 07:42 PM

Quote:

Depending on the size of the fragments the emissions increase should persist if the fragments are large and decrease to zero if the comet is truly cooked and evaporated. It still looks pretty solid in the images.



"Consistent, rapid fading of the molecular emission lines between Nov 21 & Nov 25 by a factor of at least 20"
Seems pretty clear that outgassing has declined to a relatively small fraction at a time when it should be increasing rapidly due to solar heating. It's the gas that drives off the dust that forms the visible tail & coma, one would expect these to persist for a few days even if the nucleus has completely gone.

There doesn't seem to be any reason why a "virgin" comet should suddenly develop a protective crust so exhaustion of the volatiles is pretty much the only explanation that makes sense.

If we go back a week or so, the sudden increase in dust generation that occurred can easily be explained by disintegration of the nucleus exposing more area to solar heating.

Looked at that way, it all makes sense.

Patience, my friends. Sooner or later a "great" comet will come along. Actually C/2006 P1 McNaught was pretty spectacular as viewed from the southern hemisphere in January 2007 ...


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aa6ww
scholastic sledgehammer
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Reged: 10/23/11

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: brianb11213]
      #6218052 - 11/26/13 08:34 PM

I'm sure ISON will be fine. These so called "Experts" are making their best guess now, and if they are right, they will get a pat on the back and if they are wrong, then its no big deal because no one has ever taken a core sample of what ISON is really made up of, so no one really knows.
Its probably has a much harder surface area then they "assume" it has, and I really don't see it as being a sun diving comet which will die during its path around the sun.
We just have more information now than we ever have, and think we have to always make predictions.
This is no different than every time there's a large solar flair up, its the end of the world. This is only because we have more data now and can see all of this as it happens, where as before we never could. Its the same thing.
No one really knows, but based on what Ive seen and know of all of this, ISON will be just fine. This is just media hype to gather attention, as is usually the case when things are unpredictable since there is no accountability in what we predict or assume.
As with most things related to astronomy, the more we know, the less we know.
All this "hype" is feeding the less informed, that's all.
I'm looking for a great exit away from the sun and a very nice end of the year show from ISON.
Everyone has to be Miley Cyrus and Kim Kardashian, Just let this play out and enjoy the ISON show at the end of the year.

...Ralph


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BrooksObs
professor emeritus


Reged: 12/08/12

Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: aa6ww]
      #6218156 - 11/26/13 09:27 PM

Well, ISON appears on the Nov. 27 01h 41m frame of the SOHO LASCO C3 camera image. I make it to be pretty close to magnitude +2.5 . Admittedly that's a bit disappointing at this heliocentric distance, but far from hopeless. In fact, it seems to perhaps have simply returned to its instrinsic brightness from the weeks prior to experiencing its recent outbursts. Stay tuned, folks!

UPDATE: LASCO image obtained at 02h 44m shows ISON quite similar in physical appearance and brightness to Comet Lovejoy (2011 W3) in LASCO image taken at around perihelion -1.0 day. ISON at this current time is -1.65 days from T. Interesting.

BrooksObs

Edited by BrooksObs (11/27/13 12:09 AM)


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MessiToM
scholastic sledgehammer
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Reged: 12/21/09

Loc: Huntingdon PA
Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BrooksObs]
      #6218343 - 11/26/13 11:04 PM

and a CME? ^
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/c3/512/


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Ptarmigan
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Glen A W]
      #6218365 - 11/26/13 11:22 PM

Too early to tell. Should know after Thanksgiving.

Edited by Ptarmigan (11/26/13 11:22 PM)


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mattyfatz
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Ptarmigan]
      #6218442 - 11/27/13 12:04 AM

http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/hotshots/2013_11_28/

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Tonk
Postmaster
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Reged: 08/19/04

Loc: Leeds, UK, 54N
Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: mattyfatz]
      #6218600 - 11/27/13 03:39 AM

Quote:

These so called "Experts" are making their best guess now,




Please treat our acamdemics with respect - they are doing the hard work measuring and trying to interpret the data. Sure we can all sneer at this because we apparently know better ....

What they are doing is called the Scientific Method ... observe, form an hypothesis, predict, check results ... and so on

I think Carl Battams says it best ...

Quote:

Astronomer Karl Battams of NASA's Comet ISON Observing Campaign urges readers to remember the following: "Comet ISON is a dynamically new sungrazing comet, fresh in from the Oort Cloud, and the last time we saw an object like this was never! Furthermore, a sungrazing comet just days from perihelion has never been studied in this kind of detail - we're breaking new ground! When we factor in your standard 'comets are unpredictable' disclaimer, what we have is a huge recipe for the unknown."




Nothing "so called" here ... thanks


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boandpokey
sage
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Reged: 07/25/13

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6218726 - 11/27/13 07:51 AM

looks oon the soho shot that there is no nucleus left...

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swalker
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6218740 - 11/27/13 08:05 AM

I highly doubt you can draw that conclusion from the current SOHO images boandpokey. It still looks like a comet, though its not as bright as lovejoy was in 2011...

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Rich (RLTYS)Moderator
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: swalker]
      #6218791 - 11/27/13 08:44 AM

Isn't that the comet on the right side of the SOHO image?????

Rich (RLTYS)


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boandpokey
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Rich (RLTYS)]
      #6218813 - 11/27/13 08:55 AM

yes

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Dave M
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6218889 - 11/27/13 09:40 AM

I`ll take my ISON medium rare, charred on the outside icy gaseous on the inside
Seriously though, i hope it survives and gives us something
great to remember.


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BrooksObs
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6218912 - 11/27/13 09:53 AM

Quote:

Astronomer Karl Battams of NASA's Comet ISON Observing Campaign urges readers to remember the following: "Comet ISON is a dynamically new sungrazing comet, fresh in from the Oort Cloud, and the last time we saw an object like this was never! Furthermore, a sungrazing comet just days from perihelion has never been studied in this kind of detail - we're breaking new ground! When we factor in your standard 'comets are unpredictable' disclaimer, what we have is a huge recipe for the unknown."




Nothing "so called" here ... thanks




Well, pro or not, I'm afraid Dr. Battams doesn't quite know all his facts. ISON is not the very first well observed dynamically "new" sungrazing/sunskirting comet. In 1962 Comet Seki-Lines followed an orbit with only a slightly greater value of "q" than ISON's and was closely followed except perhaps during a very few days immediately surrounding its perihelion and at a number of wavelengths, as well.

BrooksObs


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BrooksObs]
      #6219033 - 11/27/13 10:58 AM

If SOHO showed the comet breaking up today, would the tail and debris still go around the sun and be visible from earth?

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The Mighty Mo
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BrooksObs]
      #6219055 - 11/27/13 11:05 AM

Thanks for clarifying. That statement, along with the "fresh in from the Oort Cloud, and the last time we saw an object like this was never" seemed not just odd but plain wrong. I was certain we'd seen and studied new comets before.

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Vronscki
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: The Mighty Mo]
      #6219092 - 11/27/13 11:28 AM

Have you guys seen in the C3 images when the sun burst hits Ison?
From 12:54 to now, it started to glow a lot more and now has that horizontal glare.
Is this observation correct?


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Larry F
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BrooksObs]
      #6219152 - 11/27/13 11:53 AM

You can't fault any of the astronomers, amateur or professional, who are observing ISON. It's rather amazing: mag 18.8 when discovered and immediately imaged by amateurs, an accurate ephemeris generated right away, tracked and photographed by many amateurs this season, and now observed by all manner of professional observatories and even sun-observing satellites. We will be treated to a live show over the Internet tomorrow at perihelion. That it is likely not to be a great naked-eye visual show is merely the odds playing out. Sic crustallum friat, as they say.

If there's any problem, it's a product of our own desire for something spectacular and the amplification of that desire by excitement-hungry media and the burghers of astronomy-land, who dubbed ISON the "Comet of the Century" and started marketing. Well, that's only natural, but it's hard to remain calm and skeptical in the face of all that hype. We're all too credulous. We all want it to be spectacular: a great comet ranks with a total solar eclipse and a meteor storm (think Leonids 2002) and maybe the Transit of Venus as the top astronomy experience you can have.

Predicting the brightness of an Oort Cloud comet a year in advance is like trying to predict the stock price of Facebook a year in advance. You know they're not going out of business, so the stock will be worth something (and the comet will be there), but you don't know whether they are going to score a major revenue coup and the price will skyrocket with a 10:1 split (Comet of the Century) or whether they are going to be put to shame by a new social media site and lose a lot of ad revenue (hello, ISON).

The only concern I have is that some people on the borderline of being astronomy enthusiasts will opt for some existential disappointment and will retreat from further interest, because their expectations for an orgastic* experience were not fulfilled. Our position has to be to defend the realities of astronomy (which are plenty wonderful on their own) and why it's worthwhile to wait for a great comet, and marvel at its beauty when it finally does come around.

Larry

*orgastic, as used by F. Scott Fitzgerald at the end of "The Great Gatsby":

"Gatsby believed in the green light, the orgastic future that year by year recedes before us. It eluded us then, but that's no matter-tomorrow we will run faster, stretch out our arms farther.... And one fine morning--
So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past."


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Octans
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Vronscki]
      #6219208 - 11/27/13 12:24 PM

Quote:

Have you guys seen in the C3 images when the sun burst hits Ison?
From 12:54 to now, it started to glow a lot more and now has that horizontal glare.
Is this observation correct?




That's what I'm seeing too -- looks like a short bloom spike: http://198.118.248.97/data/realtime/c3/512/ (bloom spikes in C3 are horizontal as you can see from the Lovejoy images)

The latest Beacon image from STEREO also shows some blooming which suggests it's getting brighter: http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/27/ahead/hi1/1024/20131127_1...


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Tom and Beth
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Octans]
      #6219245 - 11/27/13 12:40 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Have you guys seen in the C3 images when the sun burst hits Ison?
From 12:54 to now, it started to glow a lot more and now has that horizontal glare.
Is this observation correct?




That's what I'm seeing too -- looks like a short bloom spike: http://198.118.248.97/data/realtime/c3/512/ (bloom spikes in C3 are horizontal as you can see from the Lovejoy images)

The latest Beacon image from STEREO also shows some blooming which suggests it's getting brighter: http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/27/ahead/hi1/1024/20131127_1...




Space Weather's report indicates the CME shown in the second link likely will not strike ISON, and so the brightening is encouraging.


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BrooksObs
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tom and Beth]
      #6219257 - 11/27/13 12:46 PM

Ye Ha! The 15:07UT LASCO C3 image indicates that ISON is just beginning to show "bloom spikes" from the camera's detector starting to saturate. This would imply a brightness of perhaps +0.5 and that the comet was continuing to brighten up.

BrooksObs

Edited by BrooksObs (11/27/13 12:47 PM)


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Dave M
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BrooksObs]
      #6219294 - 11/27/13 01:01 PM

It does look good. C3 Image Link

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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Dave M]
      #6219308 - 11/27/13 01:04 PM

Anyone else noticing that the SOHO website keeps going down?

I am having issues on my end, especially on the 1024-resolution latest refresh!


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timtrice
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6219344 - 11/27/13 01:16 PM

Yes.

Edited to conform with the Cloudy Nights terms of service:

"No posts of a political nature."

Edited by star drop (11/28/13 06:54 AM)


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boandpokey
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6219347 - 11/27/13 01:17 PM

website will be overloaded soon

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Octans
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6219348 - 11/27/13 01:18 PM

Yeah, I'm guessing it's under heavy traffic. See if this mirror works:

http://198.118.248.97/data/realtime/c3/1024/latest.html

(the "normal" sohowww site is 198.118.248.108)


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Octans]
      #6219361 - 11/27/13 01:23 PM

Quote:

Yeah, I'm guessing it's under heavy traffic. See if this mirror works:

http://198.118.248.97/data/realtime/c3/1024/latest.html

(the "normal" sohowww site is 198.118.248.108)




Mirror works! Thank you!


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boandpokey
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6219400 - 11/27/13 01:45 PM

In other news, there's talk that the lack of a visible gas tail might mean the nucleus has disintegrated or otherwise gone dead

http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2011/12/16/lovejoy_c3_anim2.gif


looks very similar to Lovejoy

good news!?

Edited by boandpokey (11/27/13 01:46 PM)


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BrooksObs
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6219523 - 11/27/13 02:42 PM

Matthew Knight (Lowell Obs.) posts:

Comet ISON has brightened dramatically since it entered the SOHO C3 (note that C3 is the name of the telescope, it is not referring to the molecule) field of view yesterday. In the clear filter images it had an apparent V magnitude of 2.5 on Nov 27.05 when it entered the field of view and has increased steadily in brightness to mag 0.5 on Nov 27.54. Note that it began saturating the detector soon after entering the C3 field of view and I am employing a correction that I developed for C/2011 W3 Lovejoy. This brightening behavior is similar to typical brightening by Kreutz comets in the SOHO fields of view.

My old friend Karl Battams (NRL) now reports:

Based on the photometry, and the visual appearance of the comet in the SOHO LASCO data, we have updated the Current Status page to tell observers to plan for a negative magnitude object. A conservative estimate would be -1, but -3 or -4 is certainly reasonable at this point."


Personally, I'm sticking with my earlier (published in S&T) estimate of a brief peak at around -6 shortly after perihelion passage tomorrow. As of 16:18UT, I'm rating ISON's current magnitude at 0 , the comet having brightened by roughly 2.5 magnitudes since last evening. Keep your fingers crossed!

BrooksObs

Edited by BrooksObs (11/27/13 02:45 PM)


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Vronscki
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BrooksObs]
      #6219618 - 11/27/13 03:15 PM

Nov 27.54 ?
For me, it's stuck in 27.48 (16:18)


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godra
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Vronscki]
      #6219838 - 11/27/13 05:03 PM

Ison is now -1.5mag on LASCO C3 20:42 image!!!

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Glen A W
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: godra]
      #6219899 - 11/27/13 05:33 PM

This is very, very good news, but remember, the worst - for the comet - is yet to come.

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MessiToM
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Glen A W]
      #6219900 - 11/27/13 05:34 PM

Yes shes a blooming! Trying not to think about that ^

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Phillip Creed
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BrooksObs]
      #6219938 - 11/27/13 05:49 PM

Quote:

Personally, I'm sticking with my earlier (published in S&T) estimate of a brief peak at around -6 shortly after perihelion passage tomorrow. As of 16:18UT, I'm rating ISON's current magnitude at 0 , the comet having brightened by roughly 2.5 magnitudes since last evening. Keep your fingers crossed!

BrooksObs




John,

If it gets north of -3 or so, would it be visible simply by projecting the sun's (and comet's) image onto a piece of paper since the comet's angular separation from the sun will be *reeeeeeally* small tomorrow?

Clear Skies,
Phil


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BrooksObs
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Phillip Creed]
      #6220038 - 11/27/13 06:35 PM

Sadly, Phil, no. In fact, under no circumstances can a daytime sungrazing comet become sufficiently bright to be seen by projection. T.Seki tried this approach with his Great Comet back in '65, but probably failed...even though the comet was between magnitude -10 and -15 at the time! In the case of ISON, it is even unlikely that the average amateur will be able to detect it even if it does attain -6. Because of ISON's extreme proximity to the solar disk while sufficiently bright for daylight observation, glimpses might only be possible through the employing of very specialized narrow band-pass Sodium-line filters, or other unusual approaches.

BrooksObs


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Mirzam
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BrooksObs]
      #6220098 - 11/27/13 07:02 PM

Nearly 4,000x brightening (10 magnitudes) in the past 2 weeks. Not too shabby for a cooked comet!

JimC


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goodricke1
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Mirzam]
      #6220106 - 11/27/13 07:06 PM

Just imagine if it really had been 50km in diameter as they originally thought, would've been the Comet of the Millennium!

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BrooksObs
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BrooksObs]
      #6220107 - 11/27/13 07:08 PM

In my opinion, the Lasco image of 23:06UT indicates a full-blown sungrazer/sunskirter rapidly approaching perihelion. Nothing about it is indicative of any break-up to my eye in spite of what is being claimed, or even that this comet could be only a minor cometary body, as also has been proposed. The coma is surely at least of magnitude -1.5 at present and brightening very rapidly. It has made up all its lost ground from yesterday when it first entered the Lasco C3 field as compared with my magnitude predictions and may now even exceed my expectations.

The dust tail is very strong, broad and thick, not at all like the spindley tails shown by the majority of smaller sungrazers. It is even much better than that of Lovejoy 2011 W3 pre-T! And look at that odd, spike-like tail coming out of the northern edge of the dust tail!

If all these features and signs continue to develop through until tomorrow morning at the current pace then a truly grand show could await us in the morning sky of late next week. Be prepared!.

BrooksObs

Edited by BrooksObs (11/27/13 10:40 PM)


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Unknownastron
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BrooksObs]
      #6220133 - 11/27/13 07:28 PM

In 2012 I observed an annular solar eclipse and a solar transit of the planet Venus. Both were predicted with an accuracy in both time and space within a range far smaller that I can measure. We come to expect all astronomical events to be predictable to that degree. Professionals can measure and predict the orbit within a shade of that accuracy but even the celestial mechanics of comets is less perfect than most bodies in space due to jet effects and such. Predictions of magnitude, size and appearance of the coma and tail/tails do not have sufficient scientific data to be accurate. David Levy's adage must be repeated again and again, "Comets are like cats, they have tails and do precisely what they want".
We will have to wait day by day to see what happens. But that sure is fun!
Clear skies and clean glass,
Mike


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BrooksObs
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Unknownastron]
      #6220217 - 11/27/13 08:07 PM

Quote:

David Levy's adage must be repeated again and again, "Comets are like cats, they have tails and do precisely what they want".

Mike




A true statement usually applicable only to those lacking a broad and intimate familiarity with simlar past examples. Honestly, much of the most recent highly specialized data has no earlier observations of a like nature for comparison with to allow them to be meaningful interperted. Too much about ISON has just been no more than pure speculation based on the beliefs of the particular author, or in hast to be heard/published should something they say actually happen to come to pass.

BrooksObs

Edited by BrooksObs (11/27/13 08:33 PM)


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David Knisely
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Octans]
      #6220659 - 11/28/13 01:52 AM

Yup, I am looking at the 06:18 UT image and the comet appears to have a tail length of at least around five degrees (the width of the C3 coronagraph image is about 16 degrees). The CCD blooming spikes are really getting prominent now, so the comet is definitely a bright object, although exactly how bright remains to be seen. I just hope that narrow wimpy dust tail component really starts to get going, or this comet (if it survives) might not be putting on too much of a show. Clear skies to you.

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BJS
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: David Knisely]
      #6220919 - 11/28/13 08:59 AM

Well the latest c3 update (12:54UT) shows the blooming spikes greatly decreased. I did hear somewhere that the imaging team was going to decrease exposure time so maybe that is the reason? Dust tail does not seem any more prominent either....
Fingers crossed!
Brian


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qianniu
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BJS]
      #6220928 - 11/28/13 09:05 AM

The LASCO C2 image at 12:48 is not looking good. I did not see a coma.

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Nick Anderson
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: qianniu]
      #6220949 - 11/28/13 09:15 AM

Quote:

The LASCO C2 image at 12:48 is not looking good. I did not see a coma.




Indeed, I was thinking the same thing. The horizontal spike is almost gone...

-Nick Anderson


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BrooksObs
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Nick Anderson]
      #6220977 - 11/28/13 09:34 AM

To my understanding and correct me if I am wrong as I am not normally as solar observer, the Lasco SOHO coronographs are equipped with radial density gradinent filters so as to not overwhelm the cameras from the brightness of coronal features progressively closer to the solar disk. This may account for the seeming decline in the "bloom spikes", although to just what degree I don't know. Certainly, if one stands aways from the computer monitor and views the entire SOHO field, it is obvious that fainter stars progressives fade with their approach to the occulting disk. Most unfortunately, the LASCO site is so overloaded by folks trying to get on currently that old image sequences showing things like the brighter planets passing behind the Sun at superior conjunction cannot be accessed for directly viewing the degree to which they fade. It is also possible that the exposure time for each frame is being shortened to reduce overexposure of the comet's image.

Right now (14:23UT), judging by the main tail's brightness development and continued lengthening - apparently the ion tail, not the slightly curving adjacent one which then would be dust, but oddly short - implies continuing healthy outgassing by the nucleus.

Stay tuned!

BrooksObs

Edited by BrooksObs (11/28/13 09:36 AM)


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Nick Anderson
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BrooksObs]
      #6220995 - 11/28/13 09:46 AM

Quote:

To my understanding and correct me if I am wrong as I am not normally as solar observer, the Lasco SOHO coronographs are equipped with radial density gradinent filters so as to not overwhelm the cameras from the brightness of coronal features progressively closer to the solar disk. This may account for the seeming decline in the "bloom spikes", although to just what degree I don't know. Certainly, if one stands aways from the computer monitor and views the entire SOHO field, it is obvious that fainter stars progressives fade with their approach to the occulting disk. Most unfortunately, the LASCO site is so overloaded by folks trying to get on currently that old image sequences showing things like the brighter planets passing behind the Sun at superior conjunction cannot be accessed for directly viewing the degree to which they fade. It is also possible that the exposure time for each frame is being shortened to reduce overexposure of the comet's image.

Right now (14:23UT), judging by the main tail's brightness development and continued lengthening - apparently the ion tail, not the slightly curving adjacent one which then would be dust, but oddly short - implies continuing healthy outgassing by the nucleus.

Stay tuned!

BrooksObs




Looking at this animation of the passage of C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy) as seen by SOHO, it does seem that the spike diminishes shortly before being occulted by the disk...
http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2011/12/16/lovejoy_c3_anim2.gif

-Nick Anderson


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Nick Anderson
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Nick Anderson]
      #6221011 - 11/28/13 09:55 AM

Can anyone explain the great time leap I'm seeing from 09:18 and 12:54?

-Nick Anderson


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timtrice
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Nick Anderson]
      #6221019 - 11/28/13 10:03 AM

satellite was out of contact: https://twitter.com/SungrazerComets/status/406042085859414017

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Nick Anderson
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: timtrice]
      #6221031 - 11/28/13 10:09 AM

Ok, thanks for the info.

-Nick Anderson


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boandpokey
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: qianniu]
      #6221053 - 11/28/13 10:18 AM

Quote:

The LASCO C2 image at 12:48 is not looking good. I did not see a coma.




indeed, looks bad


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BJS
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6221076 - 11/28/13 10:30 AM

The 14:36 c2 image shows the coma. I do not see any ccd spike but i am unsure if that is normal for this camera or not? EIther way, it does not look as bright as Lovejoy was just before passage. Fun to watch and see what happens today!

Brian


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Dave M
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BJS]
      #6221084 - 11/28/13 10:32 AM

Looking at the Lasco C2 Loop it appears ok ?

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BrooksObs
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Nick Anderson]
      #6221116 - 11/28/13 10:46 AM

Quote:


Looking at this animation of the passage of C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy) as seen by SOHO, it does seem that the spike diminishes shortly before being occulted by the disk...
http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2011/12/16/lovejoy_c3_anim2.gif

-Nick Anderson




Also note the rapid fading out of the star background approaching the Sun. Further, watch Lovejoy's bloom spikes get much larger as the comet retreats from the Sun post-T, right at the time that there is a frame jump to a slightly later time.

BrooksObs


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Special Ed
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BrooksObs]
      #6221150 - 11/28/13 11:03 AM

They are going to re-point the SDO spacecraft to take pics and video of ISON at perihelion with images posted by 1300 UT.
http://cometison.gsfc.nasa.gov/


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timtrice
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6221173 - 11/28/13 11:15 AM

Someone just posted this on reddit

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BaK2uJXCUAApwDP.jpg:large

EDIT: According to the individual who tweeted the pic it was from LASCO C2.

Edited by timtrice (11/28/13 11:30 AM)


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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: timtrice]
      #6221194 - 11/28/13 11:24 AM

Nice SOHO image here

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herrointment
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221251 - 11/28/13 11:47 AM

Wow!

Thanks for all the links and info, everyone....very interesting!


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arellanon
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: herrointment]
      #6221296 - 11/28/13 12:05 PM

Quote:

Wow!

Thanks for all the links and info, everyone....very interesting!




Yeah, what a cool Thanksgiving! Turkey, football, and ISON!



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Relativist
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: herrointment]
      #6221302 - 11/28/13 12:07 PM

My opinion, this is like a fly passing the back of an elephant, there is a chance the tail will reach out and swat it. If there is a CME in the comets path then it will probably be gone. A CME in effect puts up a fountain of material, and at the speeds the comment is going that's a lot of force. ( friction here will be proportional to the density and also some power of the velocity - it goes up as velocity goes up)

In addition to the various factors Glenn correctly pointed out the spin, and orientation of the spin, of the comet combined with tidal forces will have a say on what happens.

Combine the irregular surface with the spin, any friction force will also have the effect of unevenly putting pressure on the comet.

I guess the main point I'm trying to make is, this close to the Sun, without knowing way more about the comet, we cannot dismiss the possibility of the Sun joining us for a thanksgiving meal.

I for one hope she enjoys the tasty treat.


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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Relativist]
      #6221336 - 11/28/13 12:29 PM

Quote:

A CME in effect puts up a fountain of material, and at the speeds the comment is going that's a lot of force. ( friction here will be proportional to the density and also some power of the velocity - it goes up as velocity goes up)




However most of the forces on a comet ion tail from a CME are not from particles but from the magnetic and electric fields sweeping past. These interact directly with the ionised atoms/molecules in the ion tail. The particle density even in a CME is supprisingly low - a good vacuum in fact!

The reference event was 3 years ago when images showed the ion tail of Comet Enke being ripped off by the magnetic/electric fields of a passing CME


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221350 - 11/28/13 12:36 PM

The SODO/AIA cameras are starting to come online now.

http://cometison.gsfc.nasa.gov/


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Special Ed
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221355 - 11/28/13 12:38 PM

More info and pics at the S&T ISON blog. They are reporting a big drop in brightness and not attributing it to the camera techs decreasing the exposure.

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Jure Atanackov
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Special Ed]
      #6221372 - 11/28/13 12:44 PM

Negative daytime observations Nov 28.48-28.56 UT

I report negative daytime observation of comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) in the interval Nov 27.48-28.56UT from Krvavec mountain, Slovenia (4617'N, 1432'E). 11x70B, 20x110B and 20-cm f/6 Newtonian (at 48x) were used. The location is at 1450 m elevation, observing conditions were perfect - cold, dry airmass with virtually no aerosols; hiding the Sun behind a distant roof the sky transitioned to deep blue immediately.

2013 Nov 28.48UT: m1=[-3.0: ...11x70B, Jure Atanackov (Krvavec, Slovenia)
2013 Nov 28.56UT: m1=[-2.0: ...20-cm L (48x), Jure Atanackov (Krvavec, Slovenia)

Observations started with (mounted) 11x70B at Nov 28.48UT. The Sun was placed behind a distant (20-30 m) roof edge. The position of the comet was scanned by three observers (also Janez Kos, Klemen &#268;otar) for the next hour with negative results. 20x110B were then used at Nov 28.52UT with the same technique, but also failed to show the comet. At Nov 28.53UT we switched to the 20-cm f/6 Newtonian at 48x. A Wratten #21 filter and an Astrodon I-series luminance filter were also occasionally used to enhance contrast, but to no effect. At Nov 28.54UT, using no filter, I could easily see Antares at 5.5 SE of the Sun, but could not detect the comet. A very thin layer of high cloud then began intermittently interfering with observations until Nov 28.56UT when the Sun&comet had sunk low in the southwest and sky background brightness had increased significantly. The limiting magnitude for the comet was estimated based on the visibility of Antares and previous experience in observing planets close to the Sun.


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kevin M13
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Jure Atanackov]
      #6221410 - 11/28/13 12:58 PM

Seems as thought the SOHO site has crashed.

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BJS
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: kevin M13]
      #6221418 - 11/28/13 01:01 PM

Try this link for SOHO site.

http://198.118.248.97/data/realtime/c3/512/

Brian


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MessiToM
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BJS]
      #6221423 - 11/28/13 01:04 PM

live coverage
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q03I1B_yrPg&feature=youtu.be


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Special Ed
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Jure Atanackov]
      #6221436 - 11/28/13 01:08 PM

Jure,

Thanks for the report. If you guys couldn't see it through all that hardware, then I never had a chance with the unaided eye.


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BJS]
      #6221437 - 11/28/13 01:08 PM

SDO AIA171



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BJS
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221458 - 11/28/13 01:17 PM

Do you see ISON? I don't? Last c2 image did not look good. Maybe the head had moved behind the occulting disk?

Brian


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BJS]
      #6221474 - 11/28/13 01:22 PM

Quote:

Do you see ISON? I don't? Last c2 image did not look good. Maybe the head had moved behind the occulting disk?

Brian




The head has gone completely behind the occulting disc.

According to Spaceweather.com, the SDO AIA cameras would be pointed towards the forecasted orbit path of ISON and would be transmitting near-realtime images.



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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221480 - 11/28/13 01:25 PM

Th SDO movie I'm currently looking at is a dismal flop - it flickers - its mostly black frames with some active frames and no sign of a comet!

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BJS
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221482 - 11/28/13 01:25 PM

I do not see anything in the SDO images.

Brian


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BJS]
      #6221489 - 11/28/13 01:29 PM

I watched a PBS special last night on ISON and they showed some of the AIA clips from Lovejoy.

I think at times Lovejoy was almost invisble.

I am cautiously optimistic.


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BJS
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: BJS]
      #6221491 - 11/28/13 01:30 PM

From the NASA feed: SDO cant see the comet itself; too small but they are hoping to see a trail left behind by it. This is due to chemical reaction from O2 atoms interacting with the suns magnetic field.

Brian


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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Special Ed]
      #6221496 - 11/28/13 01:33 PM

Quote:

live coverage




Thats a dud too - its just talking heads - no images


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Glen A W
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221500 - 11/28/13 01:34 PM

This live thing is soooo bad.

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Glen A W]
      #6221507 - 11/28/13 01:38 PM

The operators are away eating turkey ?

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Philipp
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221518 - 11/28/13 01:44 PM

looks like it's gone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKY4L74rXWs

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MessiToM
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221521 - 11/28/13 01:44 PM

I agree. I wanted to see some sdo coverage ^

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David Knisely
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Special Ed]
      #6221522 - 11/28/13 01:46 PM

Quote:

More info and pics at the S&T ISON blog. They are reporting a big drop in brightness and not attributing it to the camera techs decreasing the exposure.




They are not mentioning the radial filtering at all, so it is possible that even Sky and Tel has missed that. We should know if the comet reappears in the C2 coronagraph, but the last C2 image does show a somewhat pointed tail and a considerable dimming of its sunward portion as it crosses the occulting disk. Clear skies to you.


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MessiToM
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: David Knisely]
      #6221523 - 11/28/13 01:46 PM

The one guy talking said he thought it has broke up.... : (

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Glen A W
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6221526 - 11/28/13 01:47 PM

These NASA people are always so glad handed. I want to puke every time I watch their stuff.

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Dave M
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221527 - 11/28/13 01:49 PM

Nasa Hangout Comet ISON Live Doesnt sound good!

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brentwood
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Dave M]
      #6221538 - 11/28/13 01:54 PM

They just said it was an Ex-Comet!

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MessiToM
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Dave M]
      #6221540 - 11/28/13 01:55 PM

I guess it won't be putting on a show.......

Edited by MessiToM (11/28/13 01:56 PM)


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MawkHawk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: brentwood]
      #6221542 - 11/28/13 01:55 PM

theskylive is still tracking and has it at mag -3.33...

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Glen A W
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6221543 - 11/28/13 01:56 PM

Don't believe a word they say. They are basing that negativity on very little data.

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Glen A W
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Glen A W]
      #6221554 - 11/28/13 02:01 PM

They are trying to hard to say something, when there is nothing to be said. I still expect the comet to make it. I'm a romantic.

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Larry Geary
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Glen A W]
      #6221558 - 11/28/13 02:02 PM

How often does SOHO take images? The last C2 image was at 17:48, 1:15 ago.

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boandpokey
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Glen A W]
      #6221561 - 11/28/13 02:05 PM

unlikely anything emerges .... its too bad we are due for a great comet show

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David Knisely
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: David Knisely]
      #6221572 - 11/28/13 02:11 PM

I just saw the 18:24 UT C2 image, and it doesn't look all that great. The tail nearest the sun has faded notably from the previous image.

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6221575 - 11/28/13 02:12 PM

At the point I'm posting this its 18:24 on LASCO C2 - just the long tail on show

http://198.118.248.97/data/realtime/c2/512/


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Crusader
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221580 - 11/28/13 02:15 PM

According to the live stream and latest SOHO image it seems that ISON has broken up. Or at the very least very probable that it has.

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221581 - 11/28/13 02:15 PM Attachment (20 downloads)

See if I can get a capture

Edited by Tonk (11/28/13 02:16 PM)


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Glen A W
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Crusader]
      #6221582 - 11/28/13 02:15 PM

Quote:

According to the live stream and latest SOHO image it seems that ISON has broken up. Or at the very least very probable that it has.




I personally don't believe it.


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Glen A W]
      #6221584 - 11/28/13 02:16 PM

Something looks faint on this frame of the AIA 211



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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221588 - 11/28/13 02:18 PM

Where??

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221593 - 11/28/13 02:21 PM Attachment (27 downloads)

C3 image 18:18

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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221602 - 11/28/13 02:29 PM

Quote:

Where??




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rosenow_photography/11105618793/

Also, let's not be so dependent on the coronagraphs.


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221604 - 11/28/13 02:30 PM



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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221613 - 11/28/13 02:33 PM Attachment (19 downloads)

LASCO C3 18:36



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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221619 - 11/28/13 02:37 PM

Quote:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rosenow_photography/11105618793/

Also, let's not be so dependent on the coronagraphs.






Humm - even with averted imagination I still can't see it


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Glen A W
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221622 - 11/28/13 02:37 PM

I can - or is that a couple bad pixels?

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Mike B.
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221623 - 11/28/13 02:37 PM

Stereo A Cor2 still has something at 18:54:

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/28/ahead/cor2/1024/20131128_...


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Crusader
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221624 - 11/28/13 02:38 PM

If you view the LASCO C3 images in movie mode (last 5 images) it definitely looks like the tail is dissipating.

Don't know if it's due to the solar wind or some other process.

Edited by Crusader (11/28/13 02:41 PM)


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Crusader]
      #6221626 - 11/28/13 02:38 PM



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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Mike B.]
      #6221629 - 11/28/13 02:41 PM

Gads why do the Stereo coronagraphs look so poor compared to teh much much older SOHO ones - that image is really poor - like looking through frosted glass!

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Acheron
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221633 - 11/28/13 02:42 PM

They are further from Earth so bandwith is lower and they can get only low res images in real time.

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221635 - 11/28/13 02:45 PM Attachment (22 downloads)

C2 19:12

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221638 - 11/28/13 02:48 PM Attachment (22 downloads)

C3 18:30

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brentwood
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221642 - 11/28/13 02:48 PM

That picture from Steve looks like it survived! But that is over an hour ago?

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Glen A W
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221644 - 11/28/13 02:49 PM

Well, if it's gone, those of us who watched it this past month really saw something.

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Crusader
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221646 - 11/28/13 02:49 PM

That looks like an artifact or particle strike. Can't seem to find it in any later images.

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Relativist
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221653 - 11/28/13 02:54 PM Attachment (15 downloads)

http://cometison.gsfc.nasa.gov/index/kiosk/dataset/two_0171

at 19:12:24


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Special Ed
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Crusader]
      #6221660 - 11/28/13 02:58 PM

That 1823 UT SDO image looks like the comet to me. You can even trace the long tail.

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Special Ed]
      #6221663 - 11/28/13 03:01 PM

Quote:

You can even trace the long tail.




Which just happens to lie along the CCD pixel column and be exactly one pixel wide!


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Alvan Clark
sage


Reged: 03/13/10

Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Special Ed]
      #6221665 - 11/28/13 03:02 PM

I have to go eat, let me know when it's as bright as the full moon.

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Crusader
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221667 - 11/28/13 03:03 PM Attachment (15 downloads)

It's definitely an artifact. Not visible in the very next image.

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Special Ed
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Crusader]
      #6221674 - 11/28/13 03:09 PM

Ouch!

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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Special Ed]
      #6221685 - 11/28/13 03:17 PM

I still think it's much too damned early to tell if this thing is a dud.

For one, it has yet to emerge out of the occulting discs in both the C2 and C3 coronagraphs.

Secondly, there was somewhat the same behavior out of Lovejoy.


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221690 - 11/28/13 03:21 PM



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MessiToM
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221691 - 11/28/13 03:22 PM

Iam so bummed rite now.
this .gif is sadening
http://spaceweather.com/images2013/28nov13/rip_anim.gif?PHPSESSID=2nue930f7gi...


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Mike B.
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Special Ed]
      #6221706 - 11/28/13 03:27 PM

Stereo A COR2 animation 18:24 to 19:39 UT:



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Relativist
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Special Ed]
      #6221711 - 11/28/13 03:30 PM Attachment (14 downloads)

Ok, look at the same area in this image, not exactly the same time, but it looks like it's right at the center of the full field (cropped here) and in this wavelength you can see a line down the center of the image. So the previous image I posted is probably an artifact.

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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6221717 - 11/28/13 03:31 PM

http://198.118.248.97/data/realtime/c2/1024/latest.html

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krp
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Relativist]
      #6221720 - 11/28/13 03:33 PM

So many ups and downs with this comet. 2 days ago it was said to be breaking up. Yesterday it was looking much better than expected. And now it is gone.

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MessiToM
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221722 - 11/28/13 03:34 PM

So something may be emerging?

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Wes Stone
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221723 - 11/28/13 03:34 PM

Something has survived ... ?

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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6221729 - 11/28/13 03:36 PM

That would seem to be the case!



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Relativist
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221731 - 11/28/13 03:36 PM

So... something made it? interesting that it didn't show up on SDO, probably ran out of free electrons lol.

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Mike B.
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221738 - 11/28/13 03:39 PM

Stereo A COR2 18:24 to 19:54:



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krp
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6221739 - 11/28/13 03:40 PM

Wouldn't this be amazing if it was still alive?
ftp://lasco6.nascom.nasa.gov/pub/lasco/lastimage/lastimg_C2.gif

But wasn't it supposed to loop around the sun and come back out the same way it came in?

Edited by krp (11/28/13 03:41 PM)


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: krp]
      #6221742 - 11/28/13 03:42 PM

Quote:

Wouldn't this be amazing if it was still alive?
ftp://lasco6.nascom.nasa.gov/pub/lasco/lastimage/lastimg_C2.gif

But wasn't it supposed to loop around the sun and come back out the same way it came in?




That link prompted me for a password


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MessiToM
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221749 - 11/28/13 03:43 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Wouldn't this be amazing if it was still alive?
ftp://lasco6.nascom.nasa.gov/pub/lasco/lastimage/lastimg_C2.gif

But wasn't it supposed to loop around the sun and come back out the same way it came in?




That link promoted me for a password





same here


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6221755 - 11/28/13 03:45 PM

...and I just realized I spelled that originally as 'promoted' instead of 'prompted'..

Edited now! >_<


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krp
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Reged: 11/10/10

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221756 - 11/28/13 03:46 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Wouldn't this be amazing if it was still alive?
ftp://lasco6.nascom.nasa.gov/pub/lasco/lastimage/lastimg_C2.gif

But wasn't it supposed to loop around the sun and come back out the same way it came in?




That link prompted me for a password



That is odd. It wouldn't let me save it without a password either. But here is a screenshot:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/19114696/ison.jpg


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MessiToM
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Reged: 12/21/09

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: krp]
      #6221758 - 11/28/13 03:48 PM

DUDE ^ that is uplifting!

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Otto Piechowski
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: krp]
      #6221760 - 11/28/13 03:48 PM

From KRP shot, not only do I see it, but it appears to be brightening as compared to the last image before nearest approach. Can someone here explain the physics or that brighteningor explain why I am not seeing the image correctly, which is quite possible as well.

Otto


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Mirzam
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: krp]
      #6221765 - 11/28/13 03:50 PM

Go baby go!

JimC


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krp
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6221769 - 11/28/13 03:50 PM

Everyone else seems to have given up on ISON.
Here is where I found that image:
http://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/comets-ml/conversations/topics/22635


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Otto Piechowski
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Reged: 09/20/05

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Otto Piechowski]
      #6221770 - 11/28/13 03:52 PM

There is something odd here; in the shot, the position of the comet and the angular direction of the table seem consistent with the comet as it approached the sunbut shouldn't that brightening tale-like feature be pointing away from the sun (more than a 90 degree difference of position from what is now seen in the picture)?

Otto


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boandpokey
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: krp]
      #6221771 - 11/28/13 03:52 PM

just a plume of fading dust. its over

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brianb11213
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6221777 - 11/28/13 03:53 PM

Quote:

just a plume of fading dust. its over



Pining for the fjords?


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krp
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Reged: 11/10/10

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: brianb11213]
      #6221783 - 11/28/13 03:55 PM

Here's more evidence it survived:


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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: krp]
      #6221786 - 11/28/13 03:55 PM

Cool - best way to deal with it - have dinner come back - and somethings come through!

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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6221787 - 11/28/13 03:56 PM

Quote:

just a plume of fading dust. its over




It ain't over 'til the fat comet bellows.

And I don't think it ain't over yet!


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cnargie
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: brianb11213]
      #6221789 - 11/28/13 03:56 PM

Saw this mentioned on reddit.

https://twitter.com/cosmos4u/status/406162303931793408/photo/1/large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BaL6dqeCQAAgQYk.png:large


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Relativist
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: brianb11213]
      #6221791 - 11/28/13 03:56 PM

Yes Otto, hence the opinions that it's not going to survive the trip.

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Ptarmigan
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: krp]
      #6221795 - 11/28/13 03:57 PM

Quote:

Everyone else seems to have given up on ISON.
Here is where I found that image:
http://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/comets-ml/conversations/topics/22635




Still waiting.


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: cnargie]
      #6221798 - 11/28/13 03:58 PM

*BLEEP* I was just about to post that same thing!

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Otto Piechowski
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Reged: 09/20/05

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: cnargie]
      #6221800 - 11/28/13 03:58 PM

Same question again please. Why is the tail trailing what may be the head of the comet and not pointing directly away from the sun?

Otto


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boandpokey
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: brianb11213]
      #6221801 - 11/28/13 03:58 PM

Quote:

Quote:

just a plume of fading dust. its over



Pining for the fjords?




sir Robert!

if there was any nucleus the tail would begin forming, pointing away from the Sun, yes...


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Otto Piechowski]
      #6221804 - 11/28/13 04:00 PM

Quote:

Same question again please. Why is the tail trailing what may be the head of the comet and not pointing directly away from the sun?

Otto




The speed in which it was traveling may not have allowed the tail to point away.

It was traveling quite fast as I recall.


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krp
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Reged: 11/10/10

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6221807 - 11/28/13 04:00 PM

I wish an expert could tell us what we're seeing. Everybody must be eating turkey.

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Relativist
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Otto Piechowski]
      #6221809 - 11/28/13 04:00 PM

Quote:

Same question again please. Why is the tail trailing what may be the head of the comet and not pointing directly away from the sun?

Otto




Close to the sun the comet is going faster, so leaving a tail behind it as it passes the outer part of the solar atmosphere. unlike when it's further away, the solar winds are pushing out a tail.


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6221810 - 11/28/13 04:01 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

just a plume of fading dust. its over



Pining for the fjords?




sir Robert!

if there was any nucleus the tail would begin forming, pointing away from the Sun, yes...




It took C/2011 W3 Lovejoy a little while to begin forming a tail again.

Let's all not call this thing early.

Let's be patient, wait it out, and then see where things take us!


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Ptarmigan
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221815 - 11/28/13 04:03 PM

Quote:



It took C/2011 W3 Lovejoy a little while to begin forming a tail again.

Let's all not call this thing early.

Let's be patient, wait it out, and then see where things take us!




I do not see why many news outlets are saying it is over. Comets are like cats.


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margin_walker
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221816 - 11/28/13 04:03 PM

I'm on the edge of my toadstool here. NASA tweet says "we do not see comet ISON" and news channels are calling it cooked but some of the images coming through are not as conclusive . . . cheer for the underdog!

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dyslexic nam
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221818 - 11/28/13 04:04 PM

Well, I was busy watching Europa League footy, and I gotta say it is pretty depressing checking in on this thread. Finger crossed that somehow the indications are wrong, but man this is worse than most projected. We went from comet of the century, to cool comet but not comet of the century, to no comet. Bummer.

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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: dyslexic nam]
      #6221824 - 11/28/13 04:06 PM

Latest C2



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cnargie
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221825 - 11/28/13 04:07 PM

Check this timelapse of possible survival!

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5480/11106507235_ec20b425d7_o.gif


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221828 - 11/28/13 04:08 PM

Also, animation.

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5480/11106507235_ec20b425d7_o.gif


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Crusader
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 08/14/05

Loc: Prince Albert, South Africa
Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: cnargie]
      #6221835 - 11/28/13 04:10 PM

I'll be damned! Strange that they didn't pick up anything on SDO.

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dyslexic nam
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: cnargie]
      #6221837 - 11/28/13 04:10 PM

Quote:

Check this timelapse of possible survival!

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5480/11106507235_ec20b425d7_o.gif




Is it just me, or does it look like an expanding trail of something following behind the comet? That would seem to be consistent with the development of a tail on an object moving extremely fast.

Plus it seems to be brightening in that gif.


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Michael Rapp
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221838 - 11/28/13 04:10 PM

Whether ISON survives or not, I just can't get over the notion that a bunch of amateur astronomers from all over the world are watching a comet survive/not-survive a close encounter with a star in real time!

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krp
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: cnargie]
      #6221840 - 11/28/13 04:11 PM

I thought it was predicted to make a tighter loop around the sun. I guess I was wrong.

ISON Predicted Orbit

Whatever we are seeing in the latest images seems to be following the predicted orbit.


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Relativist
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221842 - 11/28/13 04:12 PM

Quote:



It took C/2011 W3 Lovejoy a little while to begin forming a tail again.

Let's all not call this thing early.

Let's be patient, wait it out, and then see where things take us!




Lovejoy was different because it was visible via the SDO observations. That said, just because there were no uv/X-ray emissions visible doesnt mean it is toasted, it could just be composed differently so it's off has is less prone to interaction with the suns magnetic fields.

So far latest SOHO looks like something made it. We will see later what that something is.


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Relativist
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Crusader]
      #6221848 - 11/28/13 04:14 PM

Quote:

I'll be damned! Strange that they didn't pick up anything on SDO.




Wouldn't it be awesome of it were a pointing error...


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cnargie
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Relativist]
      #6221854 - 11/28/13 04:15 PM

From what I have been reading the newest theory is that part of the tail has survived but without a nucleus.

https://twitter.com/esascience/status/406167822130094081/photo/1


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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: krp]
      #6221856 - 11/28/13 04:16 PM

Quote:

I thought it was predicted to make a tighter loop around the sun. I guess I was wrong.




Given that the graphics matches what we are seeing ... whats wrong?


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SteveRosenow
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: cnargie]
      #6221859 - 11/28/13 04:16 PM

Quote:

From what I have been reading the newest theory is that part of the tail has survived but without a nucleus.

https://twitter.com/esascience/status/406167822130094081/photo/1




I don't think you can have a tail without a nucleus.


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Starhunter249
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Reged: 06/07/10

Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Relativist]
      #6221861 - 11/28/13 04:17 PM

According an image and a NASA scientist's comment that I had viewed, it appears comet ISON survived or a smaller remnant of it did.

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Ptarmigan
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6221862 - 11/28/13 04:19 PM

Quote:

According an image and a NASA scientist's comment that I had viewed, it appears comet ISON survived or a smaller remnant of it did.




If a smaller part survived, I wonder how bright would it be.


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221863 - 11/28/13 04:20 PM

Quote:

don't think you can have a tail without a nucleus.




Yes you can!!! - numerous historical comets went headless. Last one was 2 years ago - Comet Lovejoy. The tail lasted 3 weeks without a nucleus - just faded away. Remember the dust tail is a mixture of rubble down to talcum power sized stuff. The larger bits just follow the predicted orbit, while the lighter stuff gets deflected by solar wind and photon pressure


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221870 - 11/28/13 04:21 PM

Latest NASA tweet: "It appears that #ISON is more than mostly dead, but we are still looking in the @NASA_SDO images"

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6221871 - 11/28/13 04:22 PM

I agree that this is very enjoyable to look at the data as it comes in and draw our own conclusions independently from the talking heads. Even if the comet only survives in a weakened state it is great fun to observe it in realtime.

JimC


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221874 - 11/28/13 04:22 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I thought it was predicted to make a tighter loop around the sun. I guess I was wrong.




Given that the graphics matches what we are seeing ... whats wrong?



The orbit's just different than what I had pictured in my head

I can't believe so many people called it before it was over.


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Michael Rapp]
      #6221875 - 11/28/13 04:22 PM

Quote:

Whether ISON survives or not, I just can't get over the notion that a bunch of amateur astronomers from all over the world are watching a comet survive/not-survive a close encounter with a star in real time!




aint it cool!


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Ptarmigan]
      #6221876 - 11/28/13 04:23 PM

The tail is what the nucleus leaves behind. With no nucleus there is no tail.

Well at least something unexpected occurred. The fact that SDO couldn't see it will need to be explained. I for one hope that it survived mostly intact now, since a smaller fragment wouldn't put as good of a show potentially.


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Relativist]
      #6221884 - 11/28/13 04:27 PM

Slightly off topic, just noticed that 183 people are currently viewing the Planetary and Solar System Observing forum - is that a CN record for single forum activity?

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: djeber2]
      #6221885 - 11/28/13 04:28 PM

http://twitpic.com/dmxc0i

It ain't dead yet!!


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Relativist]
      #6221886 - 11/28/13 04:28 PM

Here is the next frame from that previous animation I have found 21:13UT

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BaMDekqCMAAEaBy.png:large


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Relativist]
      #6221887 - 11/28/13 04:28 PM

Quote:

The tail is what the nucleus leaves behind. With no nucleus there is no tail.




Sorry this is wrong - Tails dont just evaporate! they persist for some time. As I said C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy) tails presisted 3 weeks after the nucleus totally disrupted at T + 1.6 days. The tail dust still follows the orbit but slowly spreads out and disperses due to non gravitational forces


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Relativist]
      #6221890 - 11/28/13 04:29 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tk6sSAqoLqM

if anything worth a dang had survived it would look like this


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: djeber2]
      #6221891 - 11/28/13 04:30 PM

Quote:

Slightly off topic, just noticed that 183 people are currently viewing the Planetary and Solar System Observing forum - is that a CN record for single forum activity?



My first time. I looked for info online before coming here. Fantastic discussion. Thanks to all of you. Fingers crossed.


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6221901 - 11/28/13 04:34 PM

Quote:

According an image and a NASA scientist's comment that I had viewed, it appears comet ISON survived or a smaller remnant of it did.




The image I am referring to is LASCO-C2 13NOV28 20:03 UT


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6221906 - 11/28/13 04:35 PM Attachment (18 downloads)

and ... this is a headless comet - SOHO (ESA & NASA)

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6221907 - 11/28/13 04:36 PM

Quote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tk6sSAqoLqM

if anything worth a dang had survived it would look like this




It has yet to emerge out of the C3 occulting disc, so it's too early to tell.


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: SteveRosenow]
      #6221911 - 11/28/13 04:38 PM

Quote:

so it's too early to tell.




So what can't we see in the C2 images ?? I see a headless comet - just the faithfull tail following a vanished dog ... so to speak


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6221917 - 11/28/13 04:40 PM

Newest frame I have seen 21:24UT

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BaMGWJ5CcAAttkR.png:large


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: cnargie]
      #6221925 - 11/28/13 04:43 PM

Quote:

Newest frame I have seen 21:24UT

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BaMGWJ5CcAAttkR.png:large




Thats the one I been viewing too. Very promising. Its so cool to see this all unfolding in real time.


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: cnargie]
      #6221927 - 11/28/13 04:44 PM

"Today, I am thankful that Im not a comet the whole Northern Hemisphere was hoping to see in our telescopes before the Sun MURDERED IT. -- Wil Wheaton (@wilw)" lol

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6221953 - 11/28/13 04:54 PM

Since it looks like it's brightening, lets see if it continues to do so.

What happens if a nucleus were to disintegrate near the sun? well I think that's been observed quite a bit, for those that are interested, check out NRL site

http://sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6221959 - 11/28/13 04:59 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Newest frame I have seen 21:24UT

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BaMGWJ5CcAAttkR.png:large





im not sure whats promising about that

Thats the one I been viewing too. Very promising. Its so cool to see this all unfolding in real time.




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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221969 - 11/28/13 05:05 PM

Quote:


Sorry this is wrong - Tails dont just evaporate! they persist for some time. As I said C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy) tails presisted 3 weeks after the nucleus totally disrupted at T + 1.6 days. The tail dust still follows the orbit but slowly spreads out and disperses due to non gravitational forces




To be clear, there could be a debris field that continues due to it's momentum, as you correctly pointed out previously, but such a field is distinctly different from a comet tail. (see #7)

http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/11/21/comet_ison_12_cool_facts....


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6221970 - 11/28/13 05:06 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Newest frame I have seen 21:24UT

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BaMGWJ5CcAAttkR.png:large





im not sure whats promising about that

Thats the one I been viewing too. Very promising. Its so cool to see this all unfolding in real time.







Your thoughts on that image? That image plus a few others suggest something left from ison is moving away from the sun if not an intact nucleus.


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6221977 - 11/28/13 05:11 PM Attachment (27 downloads)

SOHO (ESA & NASA) C2 21:24 - orbiting dust!

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6221985 - 11/28/13 05:17 PM

So, is that it? 100% certain? Stick a fork in it...?

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: dyslexic nam]
      #6221988 - 11/28/13 05:20 PM

100 pct dead ill bet the farm.. someone elses farm

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: dyslexic nam]
      #6221990 - 11/28/13 05:20 PM

I been reading conflicting information. Scientists say its completely gone and some have said wait, then i read from other nasa scientist that there might be something left.

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6221993 - 11/28/13 05:21 PM

Quote:

I been reading conflicting information. Scientists say its completely gone and some have said wait, then i read from other nasa scientist that there might be something left.



I'm guessing they're correct.



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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6221994 - 11/28/13 05:22 PM

http://198.118.248.97/data/realtime/c3/1024/latest.html


nothing gone kaput


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6221999 - 11/28/13 05:24 PM

There was a great comet in the early 1800s that was headless and followed a path similar to ISON's. I can't remember the year...

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6222002 - 11/28/13 05:25 PM

Its not due out on C3 yet - but C2 shows its a rubble pile (its brightness is far far to low)

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6222003 - 11/28/13 05:26 PM

22:02UT lasco c2 update... starting to disperse a bit

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BaMQb1YCUAAXQ_h.png:large


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222014 - 11/28/13 05:31 PM

Tonk, this " - just the faithfull tail following a vanished dog ... " is brilliant!

I agree with the disrupted, flying gravel pile idea. There does not appear to be a nucleus or coma visible, just a diffuse streak of matter. The volatiles are quickly boiling away, being blown outward by the solar wind. You can see it in the image above. Or, I'm completely wrong.

Steve


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6222016 - 11/28/13 05:32 PM

I'm trying to watch the high resolution movie, last 25 frames of C2. There is a distinct difference this close in to the sun from when the comet was approaching on both the approach and the exit. It is clear the approach was brighter nonetheless. coming in it is going against the solar wind a bit more than on the way out, in addition getting so close if it were to have survived most of the volatiles near the surface would be released.

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Glen A W]
      #6222017 - 11/28/13 05:32 PM

If there were any meaningful nucleus remaining, it would have a surface brightness certainly far brighter than the tail (as it was on approach.)

As to the survivabilty of the tail.. An extreme example is a meteor stream, which is comprised of the bigger bits which do not get blown out so quickly by the solar wind from the original comet's orbit. Here we see a very compact version of such a stream, which still contains the less massive dust particles.

This stream will continue along on the orbit, becoming dispersed as the solar wind separates the particles by mass. The less massive ones will spread out into a sheet in the plane of the orbit.


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Steve OK]
      #6222020 - 11/28/13 05:33 PM

The brighter streak going all the way around from this morning to now is made of large grains in the parabolic orbit of the comet. There is also a fan shape which is low mass material blowing out from the orbit. I think it is too early to say there is no comet there at the end of the streak!

It is truly remarkable to see the dynamics of the orbit itself plotted out this way. I have never, ever seen anything like it. Even if the comet does not show up in the morning sky, this is still totally awesome.

Edited by Glen A W (11/28/13 05:35 PM)


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: cnargie]
      #6222024 - 11/28/13 05:36 PM Attachment (30 downloads)

SOHO (ESA & NASA) C2 21:48

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Glen A W]
      #6222033 - 11/28/13 05:39 PM

what, if any, are the chances we will see visually a headless comet in the dawn similar to lovejoy?

Edited by MessiToM (11/28/13 05:40 PM)


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6222036 - 11/28/13 05:41 PM

No one should hand out chances. One of the scientists in the NASA coverage stated that ISON was an unusual comet because... and then listed all the typical reasons why every comet is unpredictable. There is no way to tell.

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6222037 - 11/28/13 05:41 PM

Quote:

what, if any, are the chances we will see visually a headless comet in the dawn similar to lovejoy?




That would be quite a laser show!


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6222043 - 11/28/13 05:44 PM

Quote:

what, if any, are the chances we will see visually a headless comet in the dawn similar to lovejoy?




That would be nice to see.


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Ptarmigan]
      #6222055 - 11/28/13 05:48 PM Attachment (19 downloads)

In contrast to the outbound image. Please note the relative velocities with respect to the solar wind. With the decrease in such relative velocities I would think that the friction would likewise be reduced, hence the brightness. To what extent this fact precludes destruction or survival of a nucleus I do not know.

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Relativist]
      #6222066 - 11/28/13 05:58 PM

Here is a comet swinging past the sun. notice the reformation of the tail once it leaves the vicinity of the sun.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/bestofsoho/Movies/cometM/cometM.mov


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Relativist]
      #6222068 - 11/28/13 05:59 PM

Curtis note how early that pic is compared to Tonks....

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: OldDeadOne]
      #6222080 - 11/28/13 06:01 PM

Quote:

Curtis note how early that pic is compared to Tonks....




Yes, that is an inbound image, and it's much brighter!


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Relativist]
      #6222097 - 11/28/13 06:12 PM

Looks like its emerged in the C3 view:

http://198.118.248.97/data/realtime/c3/1024/latest.html


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MessiToM
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Relativist]
      #6222100 - 11/28/13 06:14 PM

there "it" is sorry ^ didnt see your post
http://198.118.248.97/data/realtime/c3/1024/latest.html

Edited by MessiToM (11/28/13 06:15 PM)


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6222102 - 11/28/13 06:17 PM

While we wait, you can watch similar movies.

http://198.118.248.97/bestofsoho/Movies/comets.html


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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Relativist]
      #6222103 - 11/28/13 06:18 PM

Quote:

I would think that the friction would likewise be reduced, hence the brightness. To what extent this fact precludes destruction or survival of a nucleus I do not know.




"Friction" is not a factor! Its radiation that heats up the comet, and drives of the volatilised material. Its differential tidal forces that pulls the remains apart.

The atomsphere of the sun is a better vacuum than the best created on earth.

The best the solar wind can do is knock about particles at the micrometer size range


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222111 - 11/28/13 06:23 PM

Global news - Ison lives, sort of.

http://globalnews.ca/news/997084/the-end-of-ison-not-quite/


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6222112 - 11/28/13 06:24 PM Attachment (16 downloads)

and whats this poking out ... the zombie comet! Spooooky - SOHO (ESA & NASA)

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: boandpokey]
      #6222115 - 11/28/13 06:25 PM

Quote:

http://198.118.248.97/data/realtime/c3/1024/latest.html


nothing gone kaput




What is that very bright object at 11o'clock?


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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222116 - 11/28/13 06:26 PM Attachment (26 downloads)

meanwhile back on C2 ... SOHO (ESA & NASA)

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Starhunter249
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222121 - 11/28/13 06:31 PM

Wow at 2013/11/28 22:24 LASCO C2

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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6222136 - 11/28/13 06:38 PM

Remnant of ison looking brighting on C3. Latest at:

http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/data_query_search_url?Session=web&...

Check out 22:30


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MessiToM
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6222139 - 11/28/13 06:39 PM

you know I even made a barn-door-tracker for my DSLR just to image this comet....

figures


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Glen A W
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6222143 - 11/28/13 06:41 PM

Quote:

you know I even made a barn-door-tracker for my DSLR just to image this comet....

figures




Don't throw it out just yet. Have faith.


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Relativist
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6222146 - 11/28/13 06:44 PM

Please recall that C2 had different contrast than C3. What is fainter in the C2 image will look brighter in the C3.

Take a look at the move titled "Exclusive views of Comet 96P/Machholz swinging past the Sun" in the following link.

http://198.118.248.97/bestofsoho/Movies/comets.html

notice how the tail reforms after the comet has passed the sun.

We cannot ignore the decreasing velocity of the comet as it leaves the vicinity of the sun, and how later on the solar wind takes over to determine the direction and formation of a tail.


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Starhunter249
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Relativist]
      #6222158 - 11/28/13 06:51 PM

C3 22:30 UT :

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov//data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2013/c3/20131128/...

Appears to be a bright head of comet ison emerging.


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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6222159 - 11/28/13 06:54 PM Attachment (25 downloads)

SOHO (ESA & NASA) C2 22:54

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Mike B.
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: MessiToM]
      #6222168 - 11/28/13 07:03 PM

Whatever is left of ISON is forming a new tail and its started it swing around to point back away from the Sun:

ISON Stereo A COR2 18:39 to 23:09 UT.


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Starhunter249
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Mike B.]
      #6222176 - 11/28/13 07:07 PM

Amazing Mike B. I hope NASA is wrong about ISON. Of course, it wouldn't be the first time they had egg in their face.

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6222184 - 11/28/13 07:13 PM Attachment (31 downloads)

SOHO (ESA & NASA) C2 23:24

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222185 - 11/28/13 07:14 PM Attachment (45 downloads)

SOHO (ESA & NASA) C3 23:18

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Dave M
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222187 - 11/28/13 07:17 PM

Does look like whatever is left of ISON is brightening,

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Starhunter249
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Dave M]
      #6222194 - 11/28/13 07:21 PM

Awesome C3 23:18, now we wait to see if the tail changes directions. If it does, then there may still be a little nucleus left after all.

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Dave M]
      #6222197 - 11/28/13 07:26 PM Attachment (41 downloads)

SOHO (ESA & NASA) C2 23:48

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222199 - 11/28/13 07:29 PM

Note that in the C3 image above the comet is dimmer than Antares (measured via the blooming spikes)

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Starhunter249
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222217 - 11/28/13 07:41 PM

Most of the main stream media new organizations are reporting its demise based on what NASA has told them. I wonder if tomorrow there will be a retraction from nasa. We can only hope.

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Starhunter249]
      #6222235 - 11/28/13 07:47 PM

I think if you watch this you can seen how destroyed the comet really is

C3 movie

The final disruption occurs at approx 17:40 UT


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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222239 - 11/28/13 07:52 PM

Quote:

are reporting its demise based on what NASA has told them.




I suspect the NASA boys wanted to get off for turkey and at the first hint of "pooof" shut up shop yelling "look its gone"

... which in terms of a specticle is roughly right .. its now for comet nerds ... say no more


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steveward53
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222254 - 11/28/13 08:04 PM

Definitely brightening

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/c3/1024/latest.html


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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: steveward53]
      #6222259 - 11/28/13 08:07 PM Attachment (23 downloads)

SOHO (ESA & NASA) C2 00:13 - last C2 image

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222262 - 11/28/13 08:08 PM Attachment (35 downloads)

SOHO (ESA & NASA) C3 00:07

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AXAF
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222271 - 11/28/13 08:18 PM

What I find interesting about this most recent C3 image at 00:07 is the tail remnant still hanging out in space prior to perihelion.

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steveward53
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222279 - 11/28/13 08:23 PM

How come it's just the Brits about at silly 'o' clock , guess everyone over the pond has overdone the turkey and retired for a snooze ...

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steveward53
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: AXAF]
      #6222284 - 11/28/13 08:26 PM

Quote:

What I find interesting about this most recent C3 image at 00:07 is the tail remnant still hanging out in space prior to perihelion.




Would be interesting to see a half decent CME now to see it disrupt that bit.


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Dave M
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222291 - 11/28/13 08:28 PM

It looks fan shaped in the C3 00:07 image..

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Tonk
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: steveward53]
      #6222295 - 11/28/13 08:31 PM

Quote:

How come it's just the Brits about at silly 'o' clock




Well this ones off to bed .. and I don't have to get up early to photograph it - this one needs dark skies for whats left


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steveward53
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: Tonk]
      #6222297 - 11/28/13 08:34 PM

Wouldn't be far enough out to photograph til about the 3/4th.

Sleep well ...


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Joe F Gafford
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: steveward53]
      #6222328 - 11/28/13 08:51 PM

I seen Venus brighter on that same C3 camera than the comet going in. It doesn't look good coming out of the occulting disk on the 00:07 UT image. A little further out will decide if it will brighten more than Antares in the lower left, scooting to the right. Both coronagraphs are less sensitive towards the occulting disc.

Joe


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Starhunter249
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Re: Comet ISON - Cooked well done? new [Re: steveward53]
      #6222349 - 11/28/13 09:06 PM