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wirenut
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 09/21/06

Loc: m'dale Pa
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: ColoHank]
      #6621018 - 07/07/14 08:42 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Examples? I would say the ultimate emergence of Homo sapiens is a good one, given that there were a dozen or more precursor species that dead-ended.




There's no doubt that some ancient species of hominid were dead ends. But were all of those species direct ancestors of Homo sapiens or did they occupy other closely related branches on the family tree? And, in either case, can anyone say with certainty that their extinctions were caused by competition with other hominids, or did any number of other factors contribute to their demises?



How many dead ends were really dead ends? European's Have Neadertal DNA, people of india and westward have Denisovan DNA. These aren't just idle gene sequences either, it's said to be the reason why Sherpa's can live/work at higher elevations then normal. they didn't just die out but bred into us too. if they gave us useful traits is that a dead end?


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Starlon
sage


Reged: 04/18/06

Loc: desert, USA
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: Qwickdraw]
      #6622691 - 07/08/14 02:16 AM

Quote:

Quote:

it seems to me that the criteria for all long lived civilizations that exist across the universe, is that they must be entirely science based.




Who is to say, we don't have a sample of this. We do have examples of primitive societies in Africa, Australia, etc. who may have lasted for millennia without scientific advancement. Unfortunately, they were influenced by Europeans and the west at some point.




Quote:

We do have examples of primitive societies in Africa, Australia, etc. who may have lasted for millennia without scientific advancement. Unfortunately, they were influenced by Europeans and the west at some point.





A primitive society is not a civilization. Most particularly a space faring civilization - one that lasted for millions of years. And certainly not one that Fermi and his colleagues were talking about. We can't even detect intelligent data emanating from interstellar sources. As I said "We cannot begin to understand how a truly civilized extraterrestrial society works. We are not even on the right trajectory to attain that level. Quite the opposite. Diametrically opposed, in fact." So, how do we know what to look for? We are using our logic and reasoning to find beings that we cannot imagine nor think like.


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GJJim
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 09/09/06

Loc: Western CO
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: Starlon]
      #6622916 - 07/08/14 08:27 AM

Quote:

We are using our logic and reasoning to find beings that we cannot imagine nor think like.




The Fermi Paradox is not about us understanding or communicating with them, it asks why Earth hasn't been visited and occupied hundreds of times by spacefaring beings. Stuart Smalley was a barely humorous TV character (gosh darn it - he made it to the Senate), but is "we're not worthy" a useful paradigm for explaining our pecking order in the cosmos?


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Pess
(Title)
*****

Reged: 09/12/07

Loc: Toledo, Ohio
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: GJJim]
      #6623040 - 07/08/14 09:41 AM

Quote:

..... but is "we're not worthy" a useful paradigm for explaining our pecking order in the cosmos?





I would point out that our present civilization has a 'no contact' law with several primitive tribes right here on Earth. It could just be that we are not advanced enough to bother with and advanced space-faring cultures find it too energy intensive to wander down local gravity holes just to talk with the primitives. In fact, just entering the 'Goldilocks Zone' of a star is a huge commitment in terms of energy expenditure especially when there is no need as all resources are available way out in the oort cloud. Despite the popularity of Warp Drive, we are likely to see Star ships that are the effective permanent homes of star-faring cultures who have forsaken the hardships of planetary dwelling. We may just find a ton of 'squatters' vacuuming up our oort cloud resources when we finally wander out for a look.

Quote:

A primitive society is not a civilization. Most particularly a space faring civilization - one that lasted for millions of years. And certainly not one that Fermi and his colleagues were talking about. We can't even detect intelligent data emanating from interstellar sources. As I said "We cannot begin to understand how a truly civilized extraterrestrial society works. We are not even on the right trajectory to attain that level. Quite the opposite. Diametrically opposed, in fact." So, how do we know what to look for? We are using our logic and reasoning to find beings that we cannot imagine nor think like.




Excellent point. I use these examples when I talk to kids about physics: Suppose we go back just a few hundred years. You stand on a Spanish shoreline and Stare out over a vast sea and wonder what's out there. You can't see anything and your loudest drums broadcast receive no reply. You send HUGE smoke signals into the bright sky but, strain as you might, you can't see a return signal. You sail your ships to the edge of their limits and still see nothing. Does that mean no one is out there?

Even today radio emanations from Earth are dying down and we are rapidly becoming radio quiet as broadcasts are replaced by underground cables.

So we were pretty loud in the radio spectrum for what? 80 or so years? That is a pretty short interval to catch a civilization within!

As our technology grows perhaps we will learn something 'better' than radio to talk over vast interstellar distances and will look back and equate radio contact of ET with our forefathers 'Smoke Signals'....the tech just wasn't up to the challenge and nobody a few years advanced from us technologically is broadcasting in radio for us to hear.

Pesse (I was abducted by a Frying Saucer once--their AC was broke) Mist


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GJJim
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 09/09/06

Loc: Western CO
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: Pess]
      #6623106 - 07/08/14 10:15 AM

Interesting rationalizations, but I'll point it out again, the Fermi Paradox isn't about us, our level of civilization, our technology, or our net worth as a species. Fermi's simple calculation suggested that given the age of the universe, our galaxy should be swarming with spacefaring beings, even without warp drives, subspace radios, and all the other sci-fi gizmos we create in the theater of the mind.

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Pess
(Title)
*****

Reged: 09/12/07

Loc: Toledo, Ohio
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: GJJim]
      #6623133 - 07/08/14 10:31 AM

Quote:

Interesting rationalizations, but I'll point it out again, the Fermi Paradox isn't about us, our level of civilization, our technology, or our net worth as a species. Fermi's simple calculation suggested that given the age of the universe, our galaxy should be swarming with spacefaring beings, even without warp drives, subspace radios, and all the other sci-fi gizmos we create in the theater of the mind.




I know that is the popular notion but it doesn't really say that. It gives a formula where you can insert our 'opinion' on what the value of the variables are.

Since these values are no more than a guess, we can't say the formula tells us anything.

Let me give you this thought experiment (just put it under the 'Math is Fun' heading):

Rabbits start giving birth about 6 months of age. Usually can produce one litter a month with an average 3 females per litter.

One momma & one pappa rabbit get together. Now consider the result after 7 years:

That's about 94.8 BILLION (with a 'B') Bunnies

Add back in all the male Bunnies born in those litters and the total comes to 184+ billion bunnies....

Obviously the world does not have 184 billion Bug's Bunny's running around, but the math is still impeccable. What is not taken into account are the 'unknowns' that limit population explosion.

Pesse (What's up Doc?) Mist


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GJJim
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 09/09/06

Loc: Western CO
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: Pess]
      #6623190 - 07/08/14 11:01 AM

Yes, math is fun, and your napkin calculation of the rabbit population, 184 billion, is not at all unreasonable (+/-) because that's only 1200 per square kilometer, one Bugs Bunny every 833 square meters - if they all survived to adulthood. I live in a desert area and see rabbits regularly, it would not surprise me if the population was over a hundred per square kilometer.

The math for ETs (even when its tortured) indicates a paradox;
After 60 years, SETI has turned up nothing, bupkis;

There is nothing wrong with continued research, scientists do have to eat (feed them rabbit?), but please don't use Bugs Bunny to lump Fermi's honest question in the category of crackpot blather.


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Qwickdraw
Carpal Tunnel
*****

Reged: 03/03/12

Loc: Ann Arbor, MI
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: Pess]
      #6623302 - 07/08/14 11:54 AM

Quote:


I know that is the popular notion but it doesn't really say that. It gives a formula where you can insert our 'opinion' on what the value of the variables are.


Pesse (What's up Doc?) Mist




I don't believe there is even a "formula" per se as in the "Drake equation". I think it is exactly what it is titled, a paradox, not precisely defined and you can add your own arguments into the fold.


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Pess
(Title)
*****

Reged: 09/12/07

Loc: Toledo, Ohio
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: Qwickdraw]
      #6623344 - 07/08/14 12:22 PM

Quote:





I don't believe there is even a "formula" per se as in the "Drake equation". I think it is exactly what it is titled, a paradox, not precisely defined and you can add your own arguments into the fold.




I stand corrected. There is the Fermi Paradox which is just a basic math attestation that even with 100 year star travel we should see visitors as opposed to the Drake equation that (when you plug in values for the variables) tells you how many intelligent civilizations should be out there.

These two concepts are separate but entwined.

And, of course, this leads into 'The Big Filter' theory: What is filtering out intelligent civilizations to the point they are not zipping around in our friendly skies?

I dunno. Maybe Wormholes exist that are associated with 'most' star systems compatible with life. Travel through these wormholes from one system to another is pretty standard. But since our system is an orphan without its own wormhole we are isolated and alone since it is impractical to make the interstellar journey by regular travel.

Pesse (Shrugs) Mist


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ColoHank
Carpal Tunnel
*****

Reged: 06/07/07

Loc: western Colorado
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: GJJim]
      #6623421 - 07/08/14 01:04 PM

Quote:


Interesting rationalizations, but I'll point it out again, the Fermi Paradox isn't about us, our level of civilization, our technology, or our net worth as a species. Fermi's simple calculation suggested that given the age of the universe, our galaxy should be swarming with spacefaring beings, even without warp drives, subspace radios, and all the other sci-fi gizmos we create in the theater of the mind.






The universe may be swarming with beings who are smart enough to mask their routines, when in our neighborhood, so we can't detect them, at least most of the time. Sometimes, though, they may goof up and give us a peek. If that's true, then there may be some substance to Bubbas's occasional claim that he saw a saucer fly by one night or was abducted or whatever.

I've never had such an experience, but I like a good story, and it's always fun to speculate whether there's a grain of truth in any of those tales.

What would really float my boat would be news that a thoroughly reputable and learned geologist was poking around an unnamed arroyo in some remote badlands and discovered the intact remains of a ship weathering out of an exposure of otherwise undisturbed Eocene mudstone. That would just about lock it up, wouldn't it?


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GJJim
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 09/09/06

Loc: Western CO
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: ColoHank]
      #6623624 - 07/08/14 02:56 PM

Quote:



What would really float my boat would be news that a thoroughly reputable and learned geologist was poking around an unnamed arroyo in some remote badlands and discovered the intact remains of a ship weathering out of an exposure of otherwise undisturbed Eocene mudstone. That would just about lock it up, wouldn't it?




That would be a news story! The Nazca geoglyphs of Peru (and similar in Chile) have always fascinated me. Their scale indicates a level of planning and layout accuracy that is hard to explain. One theory posits the use of tethered, hot air balloons (made from?) to supervise the construction.


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Pess
(Title)
*****

Reged: 09/12/07

Loc: Toledo, Ohio
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: GJJim]
      #6623693 - 07/08/14 03:49 PM

Quote:

Their scale indicates a level of planning and layout accuracy that is hard to explain. One theory posits the use of tethered, hot air balloons (made from?) to supervise the construction.




Keep in mind that the builders were every bit as smart as present day engineers.

Today we could even build the pyramids with tools available at the time they were built.

In fact, I would bet engineers at the time had a better understanding of how to use balance and leverage to accomplish stuff than are present day horsepower dependent engineers...after-all, that's all they had.

Still, it would be nice to find a little Martian runabout in some cave somewhere.

Pesse (Government would likely classify it, you know--for our own good) Mist


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Andy Taylor
Twisted, but in a Good Way
*****

Reged: 09/24/08

Loc: Epsom - UK
Re: The Fermi Paradox [Re: Pess]
      #6623879 - 07/08/14 05:44 PM

Quote:

Maybe Wormholes exist that are associated with 'most' star systems compatible with life. Travel through these wormholes from one system to another is pretty standard. But since our system is an orphan without its own wormhole we are isolated and alone since it is impractical to make the interstellar journey by regular travel.





Sounds very like Larry Niven's "The mote in God's eye" novel...

Are we doomed to cycles in the rise and fall of civilisations?

The "Moties" were trapped in their system too...


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shawnhar
Postmaster
*****

Reged: 06/25/10

Loc: Knoxville, TN
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: Andy Taylor]
      #6624252 - 07/08/14 09:46 PM

Well, we do live in the boonies! Maybe that's why we never see anyone. If you travel to another town do you drive around on the dinky one lane back roads or go downtown where the attractions are?
If we could travel would we hang around the Orion spur or head towards the center, maybe a globular or nebula, planetary or otherwise? I don't think a random yellow star makes a good target for a visit when the Orion Nebula is so close.


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llanitedave
Humble Megalomaniac
*****

Reged: 09/26/05

Loc: Amargosa Valley, NV, USA
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: shawnhar]
      #6624893 - 07/09/14 09:47 AM

Isolated, middle-aged, high-metallicity yellow and orange stars in the boonies would make the best places to look for other life forms. Places like the Orion nebula or the galactic core are great for studying star formation, but they would not be very stable environments for life.

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Pess
(Title)
*****

Reged: 09/12/07

Loc: Toledo, Ohio
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: shawnhar]
      #6624900 - 07/09/14 09:52 AM

Quote:

Well, we do live in the boonies! Maybe that's why we never see anyone. If you travel to another town do you drive around on the dinky one lane back roads or go downtown where the attractions are?
If we could travel would we hang around the Orion spur or head towards the center, maybe a globular or nebula, planetary or otherwise? I don't think a random yellow star makes a good target for a visit when the Orion Nebula is so close.





We tend to anthropomorphize aliens. We depict them as individual units more or less like us.

My personal opinion as to the Fermi paradox is that as we approach a certain technological level we will first become cyborgs (we are already there with artificial hips, hearts etc) and then eventually achieve the Total Prosthesis level (TP).

At this point there is extensive inter-connectivity of all the individual units to the point where individuality is lost. In other words we achieve 'Singularity'. Where, for all practical purposes, our civilization becomes a single mammoth AI.

I really don't think mankind is all that far away from achieving its own Singularity. Maybe a hundred years? Maybe two?

The question thus becomes: What does this singularity, once achieved, do with itself? Perhaps it is a Borg like entity that seeks out other singularities and merges with them -- hopefully in a benign way.

In any event, we may find that we are being left alone until such time as we can join our own Singularity with the Cosmic 'One'.

I actually don't see how other civilizations could possibly maintain the uniqueness of individuals with the level of interfacing that is rapidly becoming the norm.

How many of you can go without your cell phones for any length of time?

Pesse (Think outside the box) Mist


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ColoHank
Carpal Tunnel
*****

Reged: 06/07/07

Loc: western Colorado
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: Pess]
      #6625166 - 07/09/14 12:47 PM

Well, if I'm around one or two hundred years from now, I think I'll opt out of that cyborg scenario. And I never even turn my cellphone on unless I'm out hiking by myself in the backcountry. Not that there's any reception there, but it makes my wife happy.

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Qwickdraw
Carpal Tunnel
*****

Reged: 03/03/12

Loc: Ann Arbor, MI
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: ColoHank]
      #6625516 - 07/09/14 04:38 PM

Quote:

Well, if I'm around one or two hundred years from now, I think I'll opt out of that cyborg scenario.




If you are around one or two hundered years from now it may be only because you didn't opt out of the cyborg scenario.

BTW, has anybody watched the new Robocop movie? There is a very disturbing scene it where he removes most of his prosthetics which is basically 90% of him. What is left is his face/brain in a clear vessel, his lungs and his spine or part of it and for some reason, they left one hand attached to a robot arm.

Here is a link to a picture of it, very creepy

web page


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maugi88
Carpal Tunnel


Reged: 08/25/13

Loc: SE MN
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: Pess]
      #6625534 - 07/09/14 04:55 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Well, we do live in the boonies! Maybe that's why we never see anyone. If you travel to another town do you drive around on the dinky one lane back roads or go downtown where the attractions are?
If we could travel would we hang around the Orion spur or head towards the center, maybe a globular or nebula, planetary or otherwise? I don't think a random yellow star makes a good target for a visit when the Orion Nebula is so close.





We tend to anthropomorphize aliens. We depict them as individual units more or less like us.

My personal opinion as to the Fermi paradox is that as we approach a certain technological level we will first become cyborgs (we are already there with artificial hips, hearts etc) and then eventually achieve the Total Prosthesis level (TP).

At this point there is extensive inter-connectivity of all the individual units to the point where individuality is lost. In other words we achieve 'Singularity'. Where, for all practical purposes, our civilization becomes a single mammoth AI.

I really don't think mankind is all that far away from achieving its own Singularity. Maybe a hundred years? Maybe two?

The question thus becomes: What does this singularity, once achieved, do with itself? Perhaps it is a Borg like entity that seeks out other singularities and merges with them -- hopefully in a benign way.

In any event, we may find that we are being left alone until such time as we can join our own Singularity with the Cosmic 'One'.

I actually don't see how other civilizations could possibly maintain the uniqueness of individuals with the level of interfacing that is rapidly becoming the norm.

How many of you can go without your cell phones for any length of time?

Pesse (Think outside the box) Mist




What a depressing future that would be. No individuals? No thanks.


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Qwickdraw
Carpal Tunnel
*****

Reged: 03/03/12

Loc: Ann Arbor, MI
Re: The Fermi Paradox new [Re: maugi88]
      #6625539 - 07/09/14 05:00 PM

Quote:



What a depressing future that would be. No individuals? No thanks.




Thanks for sharing your opinion with the "collective"


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