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Lunar X predictions 2017?

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21 replies to this topic

#1 altair1956

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Posted 15 December 2016 - 02:55 PM

Can anyone point me in the right direction to find predicted times for the upcoming year?

thanks 



#2 beggarly

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Posted 16 December 2016 - 02:01 AM

Let's see.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_X

http://www.universet...ng-the-lunar-x/

 

So, a few hours before First Quarter,


http://aa.usno.navy....ump=50&format=p

 

https://the-moon.wik...ces.com/Lunar X

 

http://www.rasc.ca/s...c2007-04-hr.pdf page 51. Keith Burnett’s Excel spreadsheet mentioned in this PDF runs in LibreOffice: http://www.sohcahtoa...er/mooneph.html section 'Altitude of Sun over a given feature';

 

Rik


Edited by beggarly, 16 December 2016 - 07:17 AM.


#3 67champ

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Posted 23 December 2016 - 02:55 PM

Lunar X approx. "Start times"... 2017:

 

01/05/2017                0654UT         

02/03/2017                2046UT       

03/05/2017                0956UT        

04/03/2017                2221UT         

05/03/2017                1010UT         

06/01/2017                2136UT         

07/01/2017                0857UT         

07/30/2017                2033UT         

08/29/2017                0839UT        

09/27/2017                2125UT         

10/27/2017                1051UT       

11/26/2017                0046UT         

12/25/2017                1450UT        

 

Dana Thompson


Edited by 67champ, 23 December 2016 - 06:50 PM.

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#4 Dave Mitsky

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Posted 23 December 2016 - 04:21 PM

Thanks as always, Dana!

 

Dave Mitsky


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#5 gmartin2000

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Posted 03 January 2017 - 03:49 AM

Lunar X approx. "Start times"... 2017:

 

01/05/2017                0654UT         

02/03/2017                2046UT       

03/05/2017                0956UT        

04/03/2017                2221UT         

05/03/2017                1010UT         

06/01/2017                2136UT         

07/01/2017                0857UT         

07/30/2017                2033UT         

08/29/2017                0839UT        

09/27/2017                2125UT         

10/27/2017                1051UT       

11/26/2017                0046UT         

12/25/2017                1450UT        

 

Dana Thompson

Hi Dana:

 

What tool did you use to generate your times? I'm using LTVT with a Colongitude of 359.019 degrees. The data is calculated for St. Louis Missouri. The colongitude is *supposed* to be for maximum event while your predictions are for the start of the event.

 

While LTVT shows times later than yours by no more than 3 hours (expected), I'm seeing some odd differences in predictions for the year. What I didn't expect was the change in month to month difference. LTVT deltas start out at 41 minutes then increase till the max difference is 3 hours and 30 minutes on 6/1. After that, they begin decreasing to a minimum difference of 25 minutes on 11/26. Then it starts to increase again.  

 

Do you (or any one reading this) have an idea why this is happening? The difference, in minutes, when plotted sure make a nice little 1/2 cycle Sine wave   ;)

 

Thanks much in advance!

 

ltvt delta.jpg

   Date         Dana   LTVT   diff(h:mm)
01/05/2017  0654  0735    0:41   x = Moon below horizon in St louis Mo so the event is not visible this month
02/03/2017  2046  2209    1:23
03/05/2017  0956  1210    2:14   x
04/03/2017  2221  0121    3:01 (4/4 LTVT date)
05/03/2017  1010  1337    3:27   x
06/01/2017  2136  0106    3:30 (6/2 LTVT date)
07/01/2017  0857  1205    3:08   x
07/30/2017  2033  2301    2:28

08/29/2017  0839  1018    1:39   x
09/27/2017  2125  2220    0:55
10/27/2017  1051  1118    0:27   x
11/26/2017  0046  0111    0:25
12/25/2017  1450  1540    0:50   x



#6 SaberScorpX

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Posted 03 January 2017 - 03:57 AM

thanks dana.

the blue x in july is cool. otherwise no blue or black moons this year. i guess i'll let it slide since there's that eclipse thing in august : )

peace, stephen

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http://www.saberdoes...s.wordpress.com

Edited by SaberScorpX, 03 January 2017 - 04:09 AM.

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#7 altair1956

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Posted 03 January 2017 - 02:01 PM

Wasn't able to get on for a while. THANKS Dana, just what I was looking for! 

Steve


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#8 beggarly

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Posted 04 January 2017 - 05:39 AM

Here's a nice picture of Lunar X: https://lpod.wikispa...cember 12, 2013

 

The output from LTVT and Keith Burnett’s Excel spreadsheet:

 

 

Attached Thumbnails

  • Lunar X December 12,2013.jpg
  • Circumstances.jpg

Edited by beggarly, 04 January 2017 - 06:34 AM.


#9 edosaurusrex

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Posted 04 January 2017 - 11:58 PM

The Sun's colongitude is where the terminator crosses the lunar equator. The Sun's latitude can go 1.5 degrees above and below the lunar equator. The Lunar (Werner, etc) X is 25 or so degrees below the lunar equator. This means there can be about 1.5 degrees (or 3 hours at 0.5 degrees of terminator movement per hour) of difference between the Sun altitude at the X versus the colongitude at 359 degrees. I ran some numbers and the Sun is 1.2 degrees above the equator in January and 1.5 degrees below it in June.

 

So, in June,  by the time the colongitude is at 359 degrees the terminator is running East of North to West of South and the X is well illuminated compared to the time when the Sun's altitude is at the desired value for the "classic" looking X.

 

Dana uses position and Sun altitude and it is a more accurate predictor of the event versus just the colongitude. I use a slightly different position and Sun altitude than Dana so my calculated times vary by a few minutes from his.

 

A picture is truly worth a thousand words.

 

Ed


Edited by edosaurusrex, 04 January 2017 - 11:59 PM.

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#10 67champ

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Posted 05 January 2017 - 10:39 PM

Thanks Ed!  I use the same spreadsheet that Beggarly posted.  For years I have used 1.2 Sun Altitude over crater Werner as a good indication of the "start time" for the event.  It seemed to work pretty well.  Colongitude is typically anywhere from 357.xx to 358.xx at that "start time"...  359.xx is too late into the illumination to see it for long in it's "classic" sense.  I would be calling that a "late X" at around 359.xx!  You would be a lot better off just using 358.00.

 

Anyways, I think in my future predictions I will be posting the "start time" corresponding to -1.000 sun altitude of the actual approx. location of the "X" feature; not 1.2 sun altitude over crater Werner...

 

Dana T


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#11 67champ

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Posted 06 January 2017 - 06:40 AM

Using Werner (1.2 Sun Alt) with coordinates of:

LAT      -28.0

LON     3.3

 

and Using X Coordinates of:

LAT      -24.9

LON     .9

 

01/05/2017                0654UT          -.916 @ X

02/03/2017                2046UT          -. 958@ X

03/05/2017                0956UT          -1.011 @ X

04/03/2017                2221UT          -1.058 @ X

05/03/2017                1010UT          -1.078 @ X

06/01/2017                2136UT          -1.079 @ X

07/01/2017                0857UT          -1.061 @ X

07/30/2017                2033UT          -1.019 @ X

08/29/2017                0839UT          -. 969 @ X

09/27/2017                2125UT          -.924 @ X

10/27/2017                1051UT          -. 897 @ X

11/26/2017                0046UT          -. 896 @ X

12/25/2017                1450UT          -. 925 @ X

                                                   -. Average – 1.066 @ X


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#12 beggarly

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Posted 07 January 2017 - 05:55 AM

LTVT is a great tool for predicting the appearance of Lunar X. https://ltvt.wikispaces.com/LTVT

I finally figured out how to use the basic functions. I haven't installed the high resolution maps yet, but the results from the minimal installation are sufficient.

This is for 05 March 2017.

Attached Thumbnails

  • LTVT05032017.jpg

Attached Files


Edited by beggarly, 07 January 2017 - 06:34 AM.

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#13 beggarly

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Posted 10 January 2017 - 05:19 PM

It's cloudy.

Thank you LTVT.

Attached Thumbnails

  • LunaXanimation.gif

Edited by beggarly, 10 January 2017 - 05:20 PM.

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#14 gmartin2000

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Posted 17 January 2017 - 12:43 AM

Thanks for all the help folks. This is making a lot more sense. G



#15 desertstars

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Posted 17 January 2017 - 12:01 PM

Already missed the first one, but if I recall correctly, the weather wasn't conducive to observing that night. (Yes, even in Tucson this happens!)

 

Better luck in February!



#16 REC

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Posted 28 January 2017 - 10:27 AM

So what time is that EST?

 

Also, don't forget to check out the Lunar "V" as well. It's just below the X on the terminator.

 

Luner X - Copy.jpg

Attached Thumbnails

  • Luner X - Copy.jpg

Edited by REC, 28 January 2017 - 10:29 AM.

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#17 JimFR

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Posted 03 February 2017 - 09:36 PM

'Twas tonight

IMG_0390_zpswlbmuwwr.png


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#18 REC

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Posted 04 February 2017 - 10:00 AM

Good for you, we got clouds! Next Op is in April for us.


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#19 Abhat

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 06:38 PM

Posting the image taken on 09/27/2017 via Nikon D3300 attached to Orion 90mm F/10. Moon was at a perfect phase to display Lunar X.

Attached Thumbnails

  • DSC_0220 copy.jpg

Edited by Abhat, 27 September 2017 - 06:39 PM.

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#20 nicknacknock

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Posted 28 September 2017 - 12:16 AM

Abhat,

 

You also got the Lunar V as well ;)



#21 desertstars

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Posted 25 November 2017 - 12:37 PM

X should mark the spot again tonight. As luck would have it, I have both clear skies and time. I was going to be out there moonwatching anyway, so why not?



#22 tacun

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Posted 16 December 2017 - 07:57 PM

Hi guys, I photographed it but by pure chance when I take out my telescope the first time !

 

 

The forist Greyhaven told me (thanks ...)

 

I still can not believe it. You can see the story in the post.

 

https://www.cloudyni...ew-first-light/

 

You see?

 

 

 

 

Attached Thumbnails

  • WP_20171125_21_54_44_Pro.jpg

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