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Nationwide Weather Forecasts for Eclipse Day

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#1 BarrySimon615

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Posted 02 August 2017 - 04:43 PM

Drumroll please.......here are weather forecasts as of 8/2/17.  I will update every 2 or 3 days and I am sure there will be plenty of changes.  At this point the forecasts are about as accurate as election polls in early November.  I am sure the forecasts will change some for the better and some for the worse, some will remain good and some could remain bad.

 

As of 8/2, the forecast for 8/21 is:

 

Madras, OR - a high of 83 and a low of 49 with sunny skies

 

Idaho Falls, ID - a high of 89 and a low of 54 with sunny skies

 

Casper, WY - a high of 89 and a low of 56 with mostly cloudy skies

 

Alliance, NE - a high of 86 and a low of 59 with cloudy skies

 

Grand Island, NE - a high of 87 and a low of 64 with mostly sunny skies

 

Lincoln, NE - a high of 88 and a low of 65 with mostly sunny skies

 

St. Joseph, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 65 with sunny skies

 

Columbia/Jefferson City, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 65 with sunny skies

 

St. Louis, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 70 with mostly sunny skies

 

Carbondale, IL - a high of 85 and a low of 67 with pm thunderstorms

 

Hopkinsville, KY - a high of 87 and a low of 70 with pm thunderstorms

 

Nashville, TN - a high of 83 and a low of 68 with am showers

 

Columbia, SC - a high of 92 and a low of 76 with thunderstorms

 

Charleston, SC - a high of 88 and a low of 80 with thunderstorms

 

 

Don't fret or gloat just yet, we are just too far away to put much confidence in these forecasts.

 

Barry Simon

 

 


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#2 bunyon

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Posted 03 August 2017 - 05:53 AM

Where does this come from?

#3 AUricle

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Posted 03 August 2017 - 06:54 AM

Where does this come from?

Not sure of Barry's source, but I use Accuweather.com and it matches up with his data.



#4 BarrySimon615

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Posted 03 August 2017 - 08:19 AM

Yes, this comes directly from AccuWeather's monthly forecasts for these cities and I will update every few days for these cities. 

 

At this point (2.5 weeks out), the weather forecast really does not mean much at all.  At best it is a best guess based upon factoring in how many days a weather pattern typically lasts before it changes and then counting off the days. There may be a little more sophistication to it than that, but it is still too far off to give it much credibility.  It is little better that the forecasts that you see in the "Olde Farmer's Almanac".   I really wish it was real accurate, at least for me,  because I will be in or very close to Jefferson City, MO.  I am sure between now and when we leave on Saturday morning, August 19th, it will change and we will go thru periods of speculative disappointment and elation and maybe back to disappointment and elation again.

If by late on Friday, August 18th or early on Saturday, August 19th, we have a pretty good idea that the weather prospects are dismal at our destination, we will cancel those reservations and set off in another direction, most likely we will go further west.  We will have to stay south of the path of totality and then punch up into the path on the morning of the eclipse.

This little game is not unlike the planning and speculation I put into the Deep South Star Gaze.  It is held every year near the New Moon in anywhere from mid October to early November.  Typically with a start never any earlier than about October 10th or any later than November 10th.  We do this event at that time of year because it gives us our best weather prospects.  It is after "Hurricane Season" has died down, we have cooler weather, bugs (mosquitoes) are less of an issue, etc., etc.  In 35 years we have had at least one night where it was clear for a fair amount of the night and we have had a number of star gazes where it was very nice for most, if not all nights.  We have also had a few where we had as many poor nights as good nights, and we have had several where it was mostly bad.  We however spread our chances over 5 nights.  The eclipse is a different story, we have about a 3 hour window that we hope is clear and we have a 2.5 minute window that we absolutely want to be clear.  This gives us all nervous anticipation.

I will continue to update my original post every two to three days, using the same source (AccuWeather) as before.  I am sure many do not give it any credibility now as it is too far out.  However by about 10 days out, maybe by about Friday of next week, it begins to become more meaningful.  By about Wednesday of the following week when we are 5 days out, it will get plenty of attention.  As I said, we (me and my 3 traveling companions) will mutually determine what we will do by late on Friday, the 18th, or early on the 19th.

 

May good fortune be with us all,

 

Barry Simon
 


Edited by BarrySimon615, 03 August 2017 - 10:45 AM.

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#5 AUricle

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Posted 03 August 2017 - 08:40 AM

Barry,

Your luck is my luck, as I'll be 10 miles west of Columbia, MO.

Today, I'm a happy camper....but a few days ago it called for overcast skies on the 21st.

This is going to be a roller-coaster ride for the next 2 weeks, until we're in the 3-5 day forecast range. We should have a degree of certainty, generally speaking, lol.gif  by then.

Local conditions still may vary though...for better or worse.

 

Think of the fortunes riding on a patch of clouds!!!

If Vegas has weather betting line, I'd love to see it, because it's probably the most accurate of any! 



#6 REC

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Posted 03 August 2017 - 02:06 PM

Drumroll please.......here are weather forecasts as of 8/2/17.  I will update every 2 or 3 days and I am sure there will be plenty of changes.  At this point the forecasts are about as accurate as election polls in early November.  I am sure the forecasts will change some for the better and some for the worse, some will remain good and some could remain bad.

 

As of 8/2, the forecast for 8/21 is:

 

Madras, OR - a high of 83 and a low of 49 with sunny skies

 

Idaho Falls, ID - a high of 89 and a low of 54 with sunny skies

 

Casper, WY - a high of 89 and a low of 56 with mostly cloudy skies

 

Alliance, NE - a high of 86 and a low of 59 with cloudy skies

 

Grand Island, NE - a high of 87 and a low of 64 with mostly sunny skies

 

Lincoln, NE - a high of 88 and a low of 65 with mostly sunny skies

 

St. Joseph, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 65 with sunny skies

 

Columbia/Jefferson City, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 65 with sunny skies

 

St. Louis, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 70 with mostly sunny skies

 

Carbondale, IL - a high of 85 and a low of 67 with pm thunderstorms

 

Hopkinsville, KY - a high of 87 and a low of 70 with pm thunderstorms

 

Nashville, TN - a high of 83 and a low of 68 with am showers

 

Columbia, SC - a high of 92 and a low of 76 with thunderstorms

 

Charleston, SC - a high of 88 and a low of 80 with thunderstorms

 

 

Don't fret or gloat just yet, we are just too far away to put much confidence in these forecasts.

 

Barry Simon

Oh, just wonderful for SC....not!



#7 trurl

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Posted 03 August 2017 - 03:13 PM

 

Drumroll please.......here are weather forecasts as of 8/2/17.  I will update every 2 or 3 days and I am sure there will be plenty of changes.  At this point the forecasts are about as accurate as election polls in early November.  I am sure the forecasts will change some for the better and some for the worse, some will remain good and some could remain bad.

 

As of 8/2, the forecast for 8/21 is:

 

Madras, OR - a high of 83 and a low of 49 with sunny skies

 

Idaho Falls, ID - a high of 89 and a low of 54 with sunny skies

 

Casper, WY - a high of 89 and a low of 56 with mostly cloudy skies

 

Alliance, NE - a high of 86 and a low of 59 with cloudy skies

 

Grand Island, NE - a high of 87 and a low of 64 with mostly sunny skies

 

Lincoln, NE - a high of 88 and a low of 65 with mostly sunny skies

 

St. Joseph, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 65 with sunny skies

 

Columbia/Jefferson City, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 65 with sunny skies

 

St. Louis, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 70 with mostly sunny skies

 

Carbondale, IL - a high of 85 and a low of 67 with pm thunderstorms

 

Hopkinsville, KY - a high of 87 and a low of 70 with pm thunderstorms

 

Nashville, TN - a high of 83 and a low of 68 with am showers

 

Columbia, SC - a high of 92 and a low of 76 with thunderstorms

 

Charleston, SC - a high of 88 and a low of 80 with thunderstorms

 

 

Don't fret or gloat just yet, we are just too far away to put much confidence in these forecasts.

 

Barry Simon

Oh, just wonderful for SC....not!

 

That's why I'm flying away from the east cost, to Caspershocked.gif  Too soon to worry though.

 

The Accuweather forecast for the day before is "Brilliant Sunshine" and for the day after is "Mostly Sunny". Pretty much every other day that month is better. I think there is a good chance they won't be exactly right.

 

I often say "The weatherman is mostly right within 24 hours and 200 miles".



#8 bunyon

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Posted 03 August 2017 - 03:39 PM

Yeah it's way too early to put any stock in this but I still had to look. One of many companions, a man who has six eclipses, has counciled zen and patience. Good advice I'll likely not heed. As Barry said, good fortune to all.
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#9 winterymix

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Posted 03 August 2017 - 06:43 PM

So, here is the 384 hour GFS depiction at the 700 mb level.

Caveats:

 

-at 384 hours this is little better than even chances

-the map ifs for Saturday afternoon.   The GFS runs out to 16 days.

-700 mb is indicative of relative humidity at the cloud forming levels.

-I'm planning to observe in Missouri, the forecast can change 4

times a day for another 18 days.

-apparently the climatologically favored region around E. Oregon looks OK with clouds to the north and Nebraska

looks fairly good on the depiction.

SC looks OK so far.

YMMV

 

gfs_namer_384_700_rh_ht.gif


Edited by winterymix, 03 August 2017 - 06:46 PM.


#10 JNDiller

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Posted 03 August 2017 - 10:39 PM

"... It's way to early for the congo.....so keep on rockin' that Pi-an-o..."! - Chuck Berry



#11 REC

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Posted 04 August 2017 - 09:26 AM

So, here is the 384 hour GFS depiction at the 700 mb level.

Caveats:

 

-at 384 hours this is little better than even chances

-the map ifs for Saturday afternoon.   The GFS runs out to 16 days.

-700 mb is indicative of relative humidity at the cloud forming levels.

-I'm planning to observe in Missouri, the forecast can change 4

times a day for another 18 days.

-apparently the climatologically favored region around E. Oregon looks OK with clouds to the north and Nebraska

looks fairly good on the depiction.

SC looks OK so far.

YMMV

 

gfs_namer_384_700_rh_ht.gif

This map shows SC better off than NC, hope so!



#12 REC

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Posted 04 August 2017 - 09:28 AM

Yeah it's way too early to put any stock in this but I still had to look. One of many companions, a man who has six eclipses, has counciled zen and patience. Good advice I'll likely not heed. As Barry said, good fortune to all.

I guy in our club traveled all the way to China for the 2008 eclipse and was out in the desert. T- 5 min. clouds covered the sun and just as totality hit, they moved! Keep the faith!



#13 bunyon

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Posted 04 August 2017 - 09:39 AM

 

Yeah it's way too early to put any stock in this but I still had to look. One of many companions, a man who has six eclipses, has counciled zen and patience. Good advice I'll likely not heed. As Barry said, good fortune to all.

I guy in our club traveled all the way to China for the 2008 eclipse and was out in the desert. T- 5 min. clouds covered the sun and just as totality hit, they moved! Keep the faith!

 

Sorry for the original garbled message. I wrote it on my phone. But I guess you understood.  Anyway, yes, I'm keeping the faith and we'll be very mobile.  Still hard not to fret. My wife tells the story of me sitting in our hotel in Moab waiting for the Venus transit in 2012.  I had driven out to Utah for the annular eclipse in May then hung around for the transit, assuming it would be cloudy at home (it was). The day of the transit in 2012 was over 100F and clear as a bell.  But I kept feverishly checking weather reports and going out and looking at the sky. Once I saw a tiny, tiny, tiny puffy cloud far on the northern horizon. I told her we needed to drive south. She talked me out of it. We had a great view and day.

 

My point is: I should probably get some BP meds. Zen I am not.



#14 carolinaskies

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Posted 04 August 2017 - 01:44 PM

 

Drumroll please.......here are weather forecasts as of 8/2/17.  I will update every 2 or 3 days and I am sure there will be plenty of changes.  At this point the forecasts are about as accurate as election polls in early November.  I am sure the forecasts will change some for the better and some for the worse, some will remain good and some could remain bad.

 

As of 8/2, the forecast for 8/21 is:

 

Madras, OR - a high of 83 and a low of 49 with sunny skies

 

Idaho Falls, ID - a high of 89 and a low of 54 with sunny skies

 

Casper, WY - a high of 89 and a low of 56 with mostly cloudy skies

 

Alliance, NE - a high of 86 and a low of 59 with cloudy skies

 

Grand Island, NE - a high of 87 and a low of 64 with mostly sunny skies

 

Lincoln, NE - a high of 88 and a low of 65 with mostly sunny skies

 

St. Joseph, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 65 with sunny skies

 

Columbia/Jefferson City, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 65 with sunny skies

 

St. Louis, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 70 with mostly sunny skies

 

Carbondale, IL - a high of 85 and a low of 67 with pm thunderstorms

 

Hopkinsville, KY - a high of 87 and a low of 70 with pm thunderstorms

 

Nashville, TN - a high of 83 and a low of 68 with am showers

 

Columbia, SC - a high of 92 and a low of 76 with thunderstorms

 

Charleston, SC - a high of 88 and a low of 80 with thunderstorms

 

 

Don't fret or gloat just yet, we are just too far away to put much confidence in these forecasts.

 

Barry Simon

Oh, just wonderful for SC....not!

 

August for SC is typically afternoon thundershowers, that's where the long range forecast comes from.  However they usually don't develop until after 3pm unless there is a weather front directly in the area. 


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#15 BarrySimon615

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Posted 05 August 2017 - 09:34 AM

Ok, here is a revised weather long range forecast.  First one (from AccuWeather) was on 8/2, and this one dates from now - 8/5 for 8/21, which is 16 days out from the eclipse.  Most data is the same with the exceptions being both Madras, OR  Casper, WY, Carbondale, IL, Hopkinsville, KY, Nashville, TN and Columbia, SC with Madras having a worse forecast now and with the other 5 having improved forecasts.

 

As of 8/2, the forecast for 8/21 is, followed by the 8/5 forecast for 8/21:                      

Madras, OR - a high of 83 and a low of 49 with sunny skies, and now, on 8/5 we have: a high of 86 and a low of 54, partly clouds skies with a shower

Idaho Falls, ID - a high of 89 and a low of 54 with sunny skies, and now on 8/5 we have: a high of 88 and a low of 53 with mostly sunny skies 

Casper, WY - a high of 89 and a low of 56 with mostly cloudy skies, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 86, low of 54 with sunny skies

Alliance, NE - a high of 86 and a low of 59 with cloudy skies, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 88 and a low of 59 with a shower in the pm

Grand Island, NE - a high of 87 and a low of 64 with mostly sunny skies, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 88, low of 66 with sunny skies

Lincoln, NE - a high of 88 and a low of 65 with mostly sunny skies, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 90, low of 68 with sunny skies

St. Joseph, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 65 with sunny skies, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 89, low of 68 with sunny skies

Columbia/Jefferson City, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 65 with sunny skies, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 90, low of 69 with sunny skies

St. Louis, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 70 with mostly sunny skies, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 91, low of 73 with mostly sunny skies

Carbondale, IL - a high of 85 and a low of 67 with pm thunderstorms, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 90, low of 69 with mostly sunny skies

Hopkinsville, KY - a high of 87 and a low of 70 with pm thunderstorms, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 90, low of 69 with mostly sunny skies

Nashville, TN - a high of 83 and a low of 68 with am showers, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 87, low of 65 with sunny skies

Columbia, SC - a high of 92 and a low of 76 with thunderstorms, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 90, low of 74 with partly sunny skies

Charleston, SC - a high of 88 and a low of 80 with thunderstorms, now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 85, low of 78 with mostly cloudy skies and a shower
 

 

Still too far out to etch anything in granite.
 

 

Barry Simon

 


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#16 DLuders

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Posted 05 August 2017 - 10:47 AM

That forecast for Madras, OR may not be able to anticipate the widespread HAZE and patchy smoke that's all over the Northwest for the next week at least....



#17 winterymix

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Posted 05 August 2017 - 12:42 PM

The usual apologies/disclosures;

 

-this is for sunrise the day of

-hardly better than 50:50 accuracy at forecast hour 384

-there is a faint diagonal line depicting the centerline

-I will try to keep posting these roughly daily mostly for fun and also OCD neurotic worries about the weather

-as others have said, the forecast becomes dependable about 5 to 7 days out

 

One quick conclusion:  No one area seems to have a large low pressure system and no one area seems to be dealing a tropical system.  The patchy showers appear very typical of an August day in the US.

 

 

Attached File  08.21.12Z.jpg   375.27KB   4 downloads


Edited by winterymix, 05 August 2017 - 12:45 PM.


#18 SteveRosenow

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Posted 06 August 2017 - 03:23 AM

Ok, here is a revised weather long range forecast.  First one (from AccuWeather) was on 8/2, and this one dates from now - 8/5 for 8/21, which is 16 days out from the eclipse.  Most data is the same with the exceptions being both Madras, OR  Casper, WY, Carbondale, IL, Hopkinsville, KY, Nashville, TN and Columbia, SC with Madras having a worse forecast now and with the other 5 having improved forecasts.

 

As of 8/2, the forecast for 8/21 is, followed by the 8/5 forecast for 8/21:                      

Madras, OR - a high of 83 and a low of 49 with sunny skies, and now, on 8/5 we have: a high of 86 and a low of 54, partly clouds skies with a shower

Idaho Falls, ID - a high of 89 and a low of 54 with sunny skies, and now on 8/5 we have: a high of 88 and a low of 53 with mostly sunny skies 

Casper, WY - a high of 89 and a low of 56 with mostly cloudy skies, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 86, low of 54 with sunny skies

Alliance, NE - a high of 86 and a low of 59 with cloudy skies, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 88 and a low of 59 with a shower in the pm

Grand Island, NE - a high of 87 and a low of 64 with mostly sunny skies, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 88, low of 66 with sunny skies

Lincoln, NE - a high of 88 and a low of 65 with mostly sunny skies, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 90, low of 68 with sunny skies

St. Joseph, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 65 with sunny skies, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 89, low of 68 with sunny skies

Columbia/Jefferson City, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 65 with sunny skies, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 90, low of 69 with sunny skies

St. Louis, MO - a high of 87 and a low of 70 with mostly sunny skies, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 91, low of 73 with mostly sunny skies

Carbondale, IL - a high of 85 and a low of 67 with pm thunderstorms, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 90, low of 69 with mostly sunny skies

Hopkinsville, KY - a high of 87 and a low of 70 with pm thunderstorms, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 90, low of 69 with mostly sunny skies

Nashville, TN - a high of 83 and a low of 68 with am showers, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 87, low of 65 with sunny skies

Columbia, SC - a high of 92 and a low of 76 with thunderstorms, and now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 90, low of 74 with partly sunny skies

Charleston, SC - a high of 88 and a low of 80 with thunderstorms, now on 8/5 the forecast for 8/21 is a high of 85, low of 78 with mostly cloudy skies and a shower
 

 

Still too far out to etch anything in granite.
 

 

Barry Simon

 

I certainly hope that forecast for Madras, Oregon changes to a better one. :/



#19 BarrySimon615

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Posted 06 August 2017 - 09:59 AM

For those growing anxious and concerned about the weather, I have carefully put together the following tool which should help improve your chances of successfully enjoying the eclipse.  This tool has been put together in consultation with weather experts, wizards, tarot card readers, mediums, soothsayers and the clientele down at Kelly's Bar.

 

I would suggest that you print a copy (or two).  Maybe you can keep one folded and have it in your wallet and you can tape another copy to the dashboard of your "Solar Rover" vehicle.  Should your results not be exactly up to the high standards you have set for yourself.......you obviously did something wrong! shocked.gif

 

Barry Simon

Attached Files


Edited by BarrySimon615, 06 August 2017 - 10:06 AM.

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#20 DLuders

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Posted 06 August 2017 - 10:11 AM

Hey, if you're desperate to get above the weather, you could be a "Balloon Man":  https://www.youtube....h?v=s5jMwYr8zx8  smile.gif



#21 charotarguy

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Posted 06 August 2017 - 10:36 AM

Stop it, please. Everyone is getting clear weather throughout the line of totality. Getting shivers just thinking about moving somewhere else due to clouds, ain't happening, I'm staying put.fingerscrossed.gif fingerscrossed.gif.


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#22 demare

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Posted 06 August 2017 - 06:48 PM

Thanks to those who are posting the updates. My biggest concern is cloudy weather. Fortunately I'm able to drive a few hours in either direction and it **HAS** to be clear somewhere in that path! :)



#23 Rickycardo

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Posted 07 August 2017 - 06:17 AM

You Get clear skies

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#24 Starman81

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Posted 07 August 2017 - 12:46 PM

2 weeks out now and weather forecasts for 8/21 are not looking great for many locations from Nebraska all the way to South Carolina :(



#25 BarrySimon615

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Posted 07 August 2017 - 01:17 PM

2 weeks out now and weather forecasts for 8/21 are not looking great for many locations from Nebraska all the way to South Carolina frown.gif

In spite of the fact that I posted the first post to this thread on 8/2/17 with forecasts for 14 locations along the path, I realized that forecasts that far out are virtually worthless (as a predictor).  Even now, 2 weeks out, I would not put too much faith in any forecast for any of the 14 locations that I am using, 2 week forecasts are just not that reliable.  Certainly the law of averages will tell us that at least some of the forecasts made today, or yesterday, or tomorrow will be pretty much what we get on eclipse day.....but was that due to luck or some pretty accurate predicting based upon what is happening now and what is forecast to happen tomorrow?  

 

Now would not be the time to cancel reservations and attempt to make new ones.  Personally I will really start to pay attention to the forecasts by about Tuesday or Wednesday of next week  (the 15th and 16th).  By Friday the 18th my hand will be poised above the telephone for a pow-wow with my eclipse minions.  We will decide what we need to do.  Do we cancel our existing reservations and map out a new route with the realization that we will be traveling further and likely have to stay south of the path of totality on the evening before the eclipse?  How far south and at what price?  If our Plan A destination is still viable (but less so) how does that affect what we want to do when we get there?  If the weather craps out in the 12 hours prior to the beginning of the eclipse, what do we do then?  How far can we travel in 8 or 9 hours and how will the traffic be?  Lot's of stuff to think about.

 

In truth we have opportunities.  Many people that go to see eclipses are trapped in one place - a remote location in a foreign land with no opportunity to relocate.  Maybe on an island somewhere or anywhere else with little flexibility in changing travel plans at the last minute.  We don't have those restrictions (at least to a degree) so we think about the weather and multiple alternate plans.  We have options.

 

Barry Simon 


Edited by BarrySimon615, 07 August 2017 - 01:20 PM.

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