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Nationwide Weather Forecasts for Eclipse Day

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#51 mogur

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 02:47 PM

I really can't believe how much of the eclipse path has somewhat cloudy to cloudy skies forecasted... I know the forecasts still can't be relied on being 10 days out, but what to do if it 'firms up' as such?

One exercise I just did was pretending the eclipse occurs this next Monday at 2pm and looking at the sky cover forecasts... The only clear skies in that simulation were way out west (Casper) with everything else from Nebraska to SC having 50% cloud cover or more (more for most sites). That would make the 4-5 reservations I have along that path all busts!

All of a sudden a 16 or 22 hour (round trip) road trip is not looking super appealing. The depressed mood on the long ride home from a cloud out is not something I'm looking forward to.

Which is one reason I chose to take the shortest path to totality. An 8 hour trip is pretty long for just a campout, but not a "total" (see what I did there) bummer. I'm sure I'll still enjoy the time even if the eclipse is a bust.



#52 Pheran

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 03:17 PM

Solar eclipse viewing conditions: Clouds could spoil views in Oregon, Southeast

 

This is making me very nervous as my South Carolina coastal vantage point is in the red band.  Still, have to wait a little longer for more accurate forecasts.



#53 Calypte

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 03:35 PM

The latest forecast for Idaho Falls is "partly cloudy."  A few days ago it was "sunny."



#54 bnickeson

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 03:35 PM

A week out is still too early to predict much in the way of cloud cover, however, with both the Euro and GFS in relatively agreement on a synoptic pattern it's safe to look at generalities.  Both are showing a weak upper level trough just beginning to come ashore on the west coast as well as the usual central US summer anticyclone centered over Texas.  Overall, this is a fairly typical summer pattern.  Given that the pacific northwest trough is fairly weak, it's still too early to determine if it will bring much in the way of cloud cover with it.  Many summer troughs in the northwest bring a day or two of low clouds with spectacularly clear skies above the cloud deck.  So a lot will depend on orographic effects and elevation.

 

For the central US, the anticyclone pattern generally means warm temps, high dewpoints, and skies usually sparse of low clouds east of the Rockies prior to noon at least until you get to the Mississippi River.  However, it can also bring high clouds in swaths and strips that will be largely parallel with the eclipse path as they round the top of the upper level high.

 

For the southeast, this will be your typical summer pattern.  I don't know as much about the weather in that area of the country, but I'm guessing that cumulus clouds will be fairly widespread as is usual down there.  There doesn't appear to be any tropical depressions or hurricanes in the models, though the GFS is showing a very weak midlevel anticyclone heading towards Florida in the area of early next week.  The Euro isn't showing anything, but if there is something like this it would tend to pull additional tropical moisture up from the gulf and would probably create more cloud cover in the far southeastern corner of the eclipse path.



#55 Calypte

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 03:39 PM

Solar eclipse viewing conditions: Clouds could spoil views in Oregon, Southeast

 

This is making me very nervous as my South Carolina coastal vantage point is in the red band.  Still, have to wait a little longer for more accurate forecasts.

The guy who wrote this doesn't know much about eclipses.  He says, "...the moon will completely cover the sun and the sun's atmosphere, known as the corona."  Then he says, "During an eclipse, a halo appears around the sun."  I hope he knows more about the weather.


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#56 SKYGZR

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 04:41 PM

 

Solar eclipse viewing conditions: Clouds could spoil views in Oregon, Southeast

 

This is making me very nervous as my South Carolina coastal vantage point is in the red band.  Still, have to wait a little longer for more accurate forecasts.

The guy who wrote this doesn't know much about eclipses.  He says, "...the moon will completely cover the sun and the sun's atmosphere, known as the corona."  Then he says, "During an eclipse, a halo appears around the sun."  I hope he knows more about the weather.

 

It's seems it was actually a "she", NOT a "he"...


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#57 ad701xx

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 05:43 PM

Accuweather isn't. When I was scouting the Madras area the app on my phone was showing Madras as cloudy. It was clear as a bell. I wouldn't trust them a day out, let alone a week out.



#58 mogur

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 07:14 PM

Accuweather isn't. When I was scouting the Madras area the app on my phone was showing Madras as cloudy. It was clear as a bell. I wouldn't trust them a day out, let alone a week out.

So you're saying the visible satellite view lied? Interesting. scratchhead2.gif



#59 1074j

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 08:43 PM

I forecast renewable energy for Idaho Power and run a high-resolution cloud resolving model over southern Idaho.  7 days is still way out there in regards to accuracy so saying that, it looks pretty good for Idaho with just some high clouds.  Don't bet the farm on this forecast!!!

Attached File  mcin_185.gif   97.6KB   5 downloads

 

Attached Files


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#60 winterymix

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 09:49 PM

I forecast renewable energy for Idaho Power and run a high-resolution cloud resolving model over southern Idaho.  7 days is still way out there in regards to accuracy so saying that, it looks pretty good for Idaho with just some high clouds.  Don't bet the farm on this forecast!!!

 

Good to hear from someone with meteorological education.

If you don't mind a question, how does your model output verify

in comparison with EURO output?

 

Here is a free link to cloud cover derived productions   (Illinois in this case)

associated with the EURO.

 

https://weather.us/m...0821-1800z.html



#61 ad701xx

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 11:39 PM

 

Accuweather isn't. When I was scouting the Madras area the app on my phone was showing Madras as cloudy. It was clear as a bell. I wouldn't trust them a day out, let alone a week out.

So you're saying the visible satellite view lied? Interesting. scratchhead2.gif

 

When did I say anything about a visible satellite image??? I was referring to the graphic that their app shows as current conditions. If they can't sync that with what an actual satellite image would show, they are doing something wrong.



#62 1074j

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 10:43 AM

 

I forecast renewable energy for Idaho Power and run a high-resolution cloud resolving model over southern Idaho.  7 days is still way out there in regards to accuracy so saying that, it looks pretty good for Idaho with just some high clouds.  Don't bet the farm on this forecast!!!

 

Good to hear from someone with meteorological education.

If you don't mind a question, how does your model output verify

in comparison with EURO output?

 

Here is a free link to cloud cover derived productions   (Illinois in this case)

associated with the EURO.

 

https://weather.us/m...0821-1800z.html

 

I use the operational GFS to initialize the high-resolution WRF model so it's only as good as the GFS which is inferior to the ECMWF.  I looked at the outer domain of the WRFGFS and it was much clearer over OR/WA than the ECMWF you linked too.  This may be because I am not comparing apples to apples as the "total cloud coverage" includes all cloud types.  Thin cirrus may show up as a very high percentage but be very optically thin thus little or no impact.  That does indeed appear to be the case as when looking at low and middle cloud percentages, it looks much more like my forecast, at least for the NW US.  Thanks for the link to that site as it has some interesting ECMWF fields that aren't normally available.  IMO, we are getting close to where there is some confidence in the model forecasts which is around 5 days in advance.

Attached File  us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017081500_162_5_113.jpg   139.58KB   16 downloads

Attached File  us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017081500_162_5_150.jpg   126.67KB   15 downloads


Edited by 1074j, 15 August 2017 - 10:51 AM.

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#63 demare

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 04:29 PM

Thanks 1074j, I hope you'll keep us updated as the date approaches, please. :)



#64 groverro

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 04:29 PM

 

 

I forecast renewable energy for Idaho Power and run a high-resolution cloud resolving model over southern Idaho.  7 days is still way out there in regards to accuracy so saying that, it looks pretty good for Idaho with just some high clouds.  Don't bet the farm on this forecast!!!

 

Good to hear from someone with meteorological education.

If you don't mind a question, how does your model output verify

in comparison with EURO output?

 

Here is a free link to cloud cover derived productions   (Illinois in this case)

associated with the EURO.

 

https://weather.us/m...0821-1800z.html

 

I use the operational GFS to initialize the high-resolution WRF model so it's only as good as the GFS which is inferior to the ECMWF.  I looked at the outer domain of the WRFGFS and it was much clearer over OR/WA than the ECMWF you linked too.  This may be because I am not comparing apples to apples as the "total cloud coverage" includes all cloud types.  Thin cirrus may show up as a very high percentage but be very optically thin thus little or no impact.  That does indeed appear to be the case as when looking at low and middle cloud percentages, it looks much more like my forecast, at least for the NW US.  Thanks for the link to that site as it has some interesting ECMWF fields that aren't normally available.  IMO, we are getting close to where there is some confidence in the model forecasts which is around 5 days in advance.

attachicon.gifus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017081500_162_5_113.jpg

attachicon.gifus_model-en-0870_modez_2017081500_162_5_150.jpg

 

Oh, Looks like decent weather all across the path. Unless I am interpreting it wrong. My location is still St Joseph, Missouri. I have mapped out a contingency plan to head to Beatrice, NE. 2.5 hr drive which I will attempt on Sunday night if required.


Edited by groverro, 15 August 2017 - 04:30 PM.

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#65 Svenry

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 05:15 PM

 

 

 

I forecast renewable energy for Idaho Power and run a high-resolution cloud resolving model over southern Idaho.  7 days is still way out there in regards to accuracy so saying that, it looks pretty good for Idaho with just some high clouds.  Don't bet the farm on this forecast!!!

 

Good to hear from someone with meteorological education.

If you don't mind a question, how does your model output verify

in comparison with EURO output?

 

Here is a free link to cloud cover derived productions   (Illinois in this case)

associated with the EURO.

 

https://weather.us/m...0821-1800z.html

 

I use the operational GFS to initialize the high-resolution WRF model so it's only as good as the GFS which is inferior to the ECMWF.  I looked at the outer domain of the WRFGFS and it was much clearer over OR/WA than the ECMWF you linked too.  This may be because I am not comparing apples to apples as the "total cloud coverage" includes all cloud types.  Thin cirrus may show up as a very high percentage but be very optically thin thus little or no impact.  That does indeed appear to be the case as when looking at low and middle cloud percentages, it looks much more like my forecast, at least for the NW US.  Thanks for the link to that site as it has some interesting ECMWF fields that aren't normally available.  IMO, we are getting close to where there is some confidence in the model forecasts which is around 5 days in advance.

attachicon.gifus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017081500_162_5_113.jpg

attachicon.gifus_model-en-0870_modez_2017081500_162_5_150.jpg

 

Oh, Looks like decent weather all across the path. Unless I am interpreting it wrong. My location is still St Joseph, Missouri. I have mapped out a contingency plan to head to Beatrice, NE. 2.5 hr drive which I will attempt on Sunday night if required.

 

And, conversely, I'm planning to be in SE Nebraska and have a contingency plan to head to Missouri if required... or head further west if need be.


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#66 comprapescado

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 05:43 PM

 

 

 

 

I forecast renewable energy for Idaho Power and run a high-resolution cloud resolving model over southern Idaho.  7 days is still way out there in regards to accuracy so saying that, it looks pretty good for Idaho with just some high clouds.  Don't bet the farm on this forecast!!!

 

Good to hear from someone with meteorological education.

If you don't mind a question, how does your model output verify

in comparison with EURO output?

 

Here is a free link to cloud cover derived productions   (Illinois in this case)

associated with the EURO.

 

https://weather.us/m...0821-1800z.html

 

I use the operational GFS to initialize the high-resolution WRF model so it's only as good as the GFS which is inferior to the ECMWF.  I looked at the outer domain of the WRFGFS and it was much clearer over OR/WA than the ECMWF you linked too.  This may be because I am not comparing apples to apples as the "total cloud coverage" includes all cloud types.  Thin cirrus may show up as a very high percentage but be very optically thin thus little or no impact.  That does indeed appear to be the case as when looking at low and middle cloud percentages, it looks much more like my forecast, at least for the NW US.  Thanks for the link to that site as it has some interesting ECMWF fields that aren't normally available.  IMO, we are getting close to where there is some confidence in the model forecasts which is around 5 days in advance.

attachicon.gifus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017081500_162_5_113.jpg

attachicon.gifus_model-en-0870_modez_2017081500_162_5_150.jpg

 

Oh, Looks like decent weather all across the path. Unless I am interpreting it wrong. My location is still St Joseph, Missouri. I have mapped out a contingency plan to head to Beatrice, NE. 2.5 hr drive which I will attempt on Sunday night if required.

 

And, conversely, I'm planning to be in SE Nebraska and have a contingency plan to head to Missouri if required... or head further west if need be.

 

Same here. Considered St Joseph, but figured Rosecrans would be extremely crowded. They do apparently have a capacity of 200,000 though. Either way, no where to sleep Sunday except the car.



#67 groverro

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 06:39 PM

 

 

 

 

 

I forecast renewable energy for Idaho Power and run a high-resolution cloud resolving model over southern Idaho.  7 days is still way out there in regards to accuracy so saying that, it looks pretty good for Idaho with just some high clouds.  Don't bet the farm on this forecast!!!

 

Good to hear from someone with meteorological education.

If you don't mind a question, how does your model output verify

in comparison with EURO output?

 

Here is a free link to cloud cover derived productions   (Illinois in this case)

associated with the EURO.

 

https://weather.us/m...0821-1800z.html

 

I use the operational GFS to initialize the high-resolution WRF model so it's only as good as the GFS which is inferior to the ECMWF.  I looked at the outer domain of the WRFGFS and it was much clearer over OR/WA than the ECMWF you linked too.  This may be because I am not comparing apples to apples as the "total cloud coverage" includes all cloud types.  Thin cirrus may show up as a very high percentage but be very optically thin thus little or no impact.  That does indeed appear to be the case as when looking at low and middle cloud percentages, it looks much more like my forecast, at least for the NW US.  Thanks for the link to that site as it has some interesting ECMWF fields that aren't normally available.  IMO, we are getting close to where there is some confidence in the model forecasts which is around 5 days in advance.

attachicon.gifus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017081500_162_5_113.jpg

attachicon.gifus_model-en-0870_modez_2017081500_162_5_150.jpg

 

Oh, Looks like decent weather all across the path. Unless I am interpreting it wrong. My location is still St Joseph, Missouri. I have mapped out a contingency plan to head to Beatrice, NE. 2.5 hr drive which I will attempt on Sunday night if required.

 

And, conversely, I'm planning to be in SE Nebraska and have a contingency plan to head to Missouri if required... or head further west if need be.

 

Same here. Considered St Joseph, but figured Rosecrans would be extremely crowded. They do apparently have a capacity of 200,000 though. Either way, no where to sleep Sunday except the car.

 

Yes, I talked to their staff and they mentioned since parking passes are paid not many will show there. Bear in mind that parking passes are $40 now. There are other locations in the St Joseph area where you can watch as well! Good luck to us all :)



#68 groverro

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 06:39 PM

 

 

 

 

I forecast renewable energy for Idaho Power and run a high-resolution cloud resolving model over southern Idaho.  7 days is still way out there in regards to accuracy so saying that, it looks pretty good for Idaho with just some high clouds.  Don't bet the farm on this forecast!!!

 

Good to hear from someone with meteorological education.

If you don't mind a question, how does your model output verify

in comparison with EURO output?

 

Here is a free link to cloud cover derived productions   (Illinois in this case)

associated with the EURO.

 

https://weather.us/m...0821-1800z.html

 

I use the operational GFS to initialize the high-resolution WRF model so it's only as good as the GFS which is inferior to the ECMWF.  I looked at the outer domain of the WRFGFS and it was much clearer over OR/WA than the ECMWF you linked too.  This may be because I am not comparing apples to apples as the "total cloud coverage" includes all cloud types.  Thin cirrus may show up as a very high percentage but be very optically thin thus little or no impact.  That does indeed appear to be the case as when looking at low and middle cloud percentages, it looks much more like my forecast, at least for the NW US.  Thanks for the link to that site as it has some interesting ECMWF fields that aren't normally available.  IMO, we are getting close to where there is some confidence in the model forecasts which is around 5 days in advance.

attachicon.gifus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017081500_162_5_113.jpg

attachicon.gifus_model-en-0870_modez_2017081500_162_5_150.jpg

 

Oh, Looks like decent weather all across the path. Unless I am interpreting it wrong. My location is still St Joseph, Missouri. I have mapped out a contingency plan to head to Beatrice, NE. 2.5 hr drive which I will attempt on Sunday night if required.

 

And, conversely, I'm planning to be in SE Nebraska and have a contingency plan to head to Missouri if required... or head further west if need be.

 

Haha, Hopefully you don't have too :) !



#69 Svenry

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Posted 17 August 2017 - 11:25 AM

Still fairly unsure about SE Nebraska. These forecasts are driving me crazy! I'll be in Indianapolis Saturday morning and deciding where to go from there. It will be interesting to hear if people's initial plans start changing.



#70 hboswell

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Posted 17 August 2017 - 11:40 AM

I've still got reservations at a campground northeast of Nashville and a hotel south of Columbia, MO.  At this point the campground is pulling ahead.

 

Harry



#71 CCDMan

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Posted 17 August 2017 - 11:46 AM

This is by FAR the best and most accurate for cloud cover, it is hourly and gives percent of low, medium, and high clouds. I use it all the time for regular imaging.

 

http://clearoutside....cast/50.7/-3.52


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#72 bunyon

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Posted 17 August 2017 - 11:57 AM

Is "high cloud" specifically the sort of thin stuff way up?  That seems to me the least bad type.  But it could also mean storm clouds that reach high altitude.  Which would be not good.



#73 kdenny2

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Posted 17 August 2017 - 12:09 PM

High clouds are usually the most transparent, in my experience.


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#74 Jgoldader

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Posted 17 August 2017 - 02:16 PM

I viewed and photographed the 1991 eclipse through thin high clouds in Hawaii, it was just fine.  The key is how transparent they are.  I see for my main and bailout sites in SC, clearoutside.com says high clouds are likely to be the biggest issue.  

 

Of course, there's still a long time between now and Monday afternoon.  I should stop looking until about 8pm Sunday...but I won't.



#75 APshooter

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Posted 17 August 2017 - 07:14 PM

 

This is by FAR the best and most accurate for cloud cover, it is hourly and gives percent of low, medium, and high clouds. I use it all the time for regular imaging.

 

http://clearoutside....cast/50.7/-3.52

Thanks for that, downloaded the app to my phone.  Conditions look better than the other sites: 29% and 45% cloud cover respectively for St Louis for eclipse time.  Other sites were calling for 66% cloud




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