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Have you checked the weather yet?

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#1 Lord Beowulf

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Posted 08 August 2017 - 07:34 AM

So, have you checked the weather forecast for your destination yet?  Weather.com has started a 15 day forecast, so yesterday was the first day that the 21st came up.  Of course in every location I have a hotel reserved from Nebraska to Tennessee it was predicted to rain!  Yesterday the prediction for Grand Island, NE was cloudy with a 40% chance of rain, and typical of weather.com's long range forecasts, today it's predicting mostly sunny with still a 20% chance of rain.  As usual, the forecasters really have no idea, but they have to come up with something...  It's enough to drive you crazy though!  tongue2.gif 

 

Beo 



#2 winterymix

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Posted 08 August 2017 - 07:37 AM

Plenty of time for changes but so far, climatology seems favored.

 

https://www.cloudyni...-2#entry8037735



#3 jforkner

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Posted 08 August 2017 - 07:49 AM

And we all know how accurate 2-week forecasts are...



#4 REC

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Posted 08 August 2017 - 09:53 AM

I checked my Weather Chanel App yesterday and the 15 day forecast called for partly sunny for Sunday and clear and sunny on Monday. Checked it again today and it now shows possible thunderstorms in the PM?????? So go figure.

 

My 7 day forecast for CLT here is 50% rain all week. Typical August here.



#5 Crow Haven

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Posted 08 August 2017 - 12:01 PM

Here it's cloudy in the morning and partly cloudy in the afternoon with some haze from NE fires daily.



#6 mogur

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Posted 08 August 2017 - 08:09 PM

No. It's ridiculously early.



#7 winterymix

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Posted 08 August 2017 - 08:23 PM

No. It's ridiculously early.

Respectfully disagree.

The GFS runs four times a day and will soon be within ten days.

 

At ten days, the EURO is within range (www.ecmwf.int)



#8 bunyon

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Posted 08 August 2017 - 09:27 PM

They can run all the forecasts they want. They're not worth seriously considering for at least another week.
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#9 Don W

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Posted 08 August 2017 - 10:12 PM

I have reservations in York, NE. Going to take whatever weather we get.


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#10 Unknownastron

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Posted 08 August 2017 - 10:28 PM

I am beginning to worry about my selection for Nebraska.  Weather patterns for the whole plains area are not what climate usually predicts.  For example, here in Oklahoma we are a little cooler and lots, lots wetter.  

With all that I agree it is too early to predict.  It will be more difficult this year as summer weather patterns in the plains and usually much less chaotic than this.  It will really be another week before we can make even an educated guess.  One rule I will follow is to look at large weather systems and not local events.  Good luck to all, we need it.

Clear skies and clean glass,

Mike



#11 Lord Beowulf

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Posted 09 August 2017 - 05:54 AM

Just realized we're on the wrong website.  No one ever gave a thought to Cloudy Days!  lol.gif

 

Beo


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#12 Lord Beowulf

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Posted 09 August 2017 - 07:01 AM

So today we're back up to partly cloudy in Nebraska on the 21st and up to 40% chance of thunderstorms on the evening of the Friday before when I'm supposed to host a star party!  Looks like everything's shifting up.  Just need it to shift two more days to have the "mostly Sunny" currently on Sunday and Wednesday hit Friday and Monday!  grin.gif

 

Elsewhere across the Central Plains it's looking similar with higher rain chances in the middle (Kansas/Missouri) and tapering off to clouds on either side.  Let's see what the predictions are tomorrow!  

 

Beo


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#13 bunyon

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Posted 09 August 2017 - 08:42 AM

I am beginning to worry about my selection for Nebraska.  Weather patterns for the whole plains area are not what climate usually predicts.  For example, here in Oklahoma we are a little cooler and lots, lots wetter.  

With all that I agree it is too early to predict.  It will be more difficult this year as summer weather patterns in the plains and usually much less chaotic than this.  It will really be another week before we can make even an educated guess.  One rule I will follow is to look at large weather systems and not local events.  Good luck to all, we need it.

Clear skies and clean glass,

Mike

 

I've been worried about this everywhere for awhile.  The high here yesterday was 73.  That isn't normal. I've heard from friends all over that weather patterns are unusual this year.  Some of that is anecdotal BS based on faulty human sensory perception (that I'm guilty of as well).  But using historical data to plan a location only works if the season is going according to the model.  If it isn't, all bets are off.  


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#14 REC

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Posted 09 August 2017 - 09:25 AM

 

I am beginning to worry about my selection for Nebraska.  Weather patterns for the whole plains area are not what climate usually predicts.  For example, here in Oklahoma we are a little cooler and lots, lots wetter.  

With all that I agree it is too early to predict.  It will be more difficult this year as summer weather patterns in the plains and usually much less chaotic than this.  It will really be another week before we can make even an educated guess.  One rule I will follow is to look at large weather systems and not local events.  Good luck to all, we need it.

Clear skies and clean glass,

Mike

 

I've been worried about this everywhere for awhile.  The high here yesterday was 73.  That isn't normal. I've heard from friends all over that weather patterns are unusual this year.  Some of that is anecdotal BS based on faulty human sensory perception (that I'm guilty of as well).  But using historical data to plan a location only works if the season is going according to the model.  If it isn't, all bets are off.  

 

Clouds and Sun is predicted with a 50% chance of thunderstorms. It's mainly this for the whole month, here in the SE. Just hope it's clear at 2-3pm. Clouds and storms usually start in the late afternoon, so hope it holds off that day. What are you gonna do if you all ready have plans and money spent?


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#15 bunyon

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Posted 09 August 2017 - 10:15 AM

Do not go quiet into that good night.


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#16 mogur

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Posted 09 August 2017 - 02:05 PM

Where I'm going highs are predicted around 90ish for the whole weekend. Gotta remember the shorts and the sun screen. And the fan! sweaty.gif



#17 Augustus

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Posted 09 August 2017 - 02:07 PM

Thunderstorms the whole week in South Carolina. I'm really worried we won't get to see it.



#18 Unknownastron

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Posted 09 August 2017 - 05:33 PM

I am so discouraged by the patterns of weather I may not take equipment I was planning to take.  Unless the entire path I can get to is totally weathered out my wife and I will still get in the pickup and drive to where it looks like the best chance.  But I may not take the tripod and mount and C-90 I have planned.  I was going to do a full run through today of set up, alignment by compass photo the sun, pretend to take the solar filters off and follow my checklist.  I should do this at least twice before the event, but weather is so discouraging I did not do it.  

What worries me most is this fact:  climate predictions have had Idaho, Wyoming and western Nebraska as best bets.  This is because the mountains usually cause most of the moisture from the pacific to dump out of the atmosphere on the western slopes before it can get to the high plains and great plains.  Here is a link to the water vapor image: http://www.weather.gov/satellite#wv

Look at all the moisture in a long east_west band coming right over the mountains and into the normally dry area.  This is not the weather pattern typical for this area in August.  I know the pattern may be very different in 12 days, but the worry is the pattern should not be there at all this time of year.

Clear skies and clean glass,

Mike



#19 Starman81

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Posted 09 August 2017 - 09:58 PM

I am so discouraged by the patterns of weather I may not take equipment I was planning to take.  Unless the entire path I can get to is totally weathered out my wife and I will still get in the pickup and drive to where it looks like the best chance.  But I may not take the tripod and mount and C-90 I have planned.  I was going to do a full run through today of set up, alignment by compass photo the sun, pretend to take the solar filters off and follow my checklist.  I should do this at least twice before the event, but weather is so discouraging I did not do it.  

What worries me most is this fact:  climate predictions have had Idaho, Wyoming and western Nebraska as best bets.  This is because the mountains usually cause most of the moisture from the pacific to dump out of the atmosphere on the western slopes before it can get to the high plains and great plains.  Here is a link to the water vapor image: http://www.weather.gov/satellite#wv

Look at all the moisture in a long east_west band coming right over the mountains and into the normally dry area.  This is not the weather pattern typical for this area in August.  I know the pattern may be very different in 12 days, but the worry is the pattern should not be there at all this time of year.

Clear skies and clean glass,

Mike

 

The 'Sky Cover' maps on weather.gov seem very useful. 



#20 Lord Beowulf

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Posted 10 August 2017 - 02:48 PM

So keeping up the running daily commentary which just illustrates the absurdity of weather.com/The Weather Channel's long term forecast, today Nebraska is sunny with 0% chance of rain from Sunday through Wednesday, while Friday has become 50% chance of evening thunderstorms (thereby making the star party that night somewhat moot).  The interesting thing is the way the proposed storm pattern has apparently broken up, with Columbia, MO being clear, but both Kansas City and mid Tennessee being rainy.  So who's taking bets on what's predicted tomorrow?!!  lol.gif

 

Beo



#21 kdenny2

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Posted 10 August 2017 - 04:10 PM

FYI, tropicaltidbits has access to most of the major models and has cloud cover maps for each model run:

 

https://www.tropical...nalysis/models/

 

Click "Region (select your region) > Upper Dynamics > Total Cloud Fraction > Forecast Hour of August 21"

 

GFS updates around 5:30 AM, 11:30 AM, 5:30 PM, and 11:30 PM each day.

 

When we get closer to the eclipse, I recommend using the NAM, which can be found under the "mesoscale" section.


Edited by kdenny2, 10 August 2017 - 04:12 PM.


#22 joaoba

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Posted 10 August 2017 - 04:41 PM

They're calling for 84F and not a cloud in the sky. I'll take it!


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#23 RussL

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Posted 10 August 2017 - 05:35 PM

Columbia, SC says cloudy with thunderstorms right now. Very disappointing. According to Accuweather.

Weather.com just says AM thunderstorms. So who knows.

Edited by RussL, 10 August 2017 - 05:49 PM.


#24 Charlie B

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Posted 10 August 2017 - 07:32 PM

Columbia, SC says cloudy with thunderstorms right now. Very disappointing. According to Accuweather.

Weather.com just says AM thunderstorms. So who knows.

This far out, flip a coin.  Within 3 days, you get a reasonable accuracy.

 

Regards,

 

Charlie B



#25 bumm

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Posted 10 August 2017 - 07:56 PM

I live in Iowa, and my 1st choice is to drive southwest into rural Nebraska.  It can be VERY hard to predict weather here in the midwest, with no mountain ranges or large bodies of water to give any kind of consistency.  About all forecasters can do is watch fronts blow around and try to guess which one will win.  Any forecast two weeks off is nothing but a wild guess.

                                           Marty


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