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Asteroid 2018 GE3 - near miss 4/15/18

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#1 George N

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Posted 15 April 2018 - 11:00 PM

Close call - near miss by this 130+ meter asteroid - 0.5 lunar distance - 4/15/18.

 

"It is the largest known asteroid to ever pass that close to Earth in observational history"

 

Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_GE3

 

If you are reading this - you are safe..... for now......  cool.gif


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#2 petert913

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Posted 15 April 2018 - 11:59 PM

Wow. Not a word in the news about it. Glad they are so concerned confused1.gif  



#3 B l a k S t a r

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 10:11 AM

A Few articles showing up now ~11.00 EST 

 

close!



#4 RussL

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 10:46 AM

Didn't hear about it. So, then what if it had hit us?

#5 starcanoe

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 11:19 AM

Something that big might start WW3 if hitting in the wrong place at the wrong time with the wrong people worried about pressing a button fast in response.

 

IIRC...to a first order of magnitude....a ton of fast traveling space stuff hitting earth has about the kinetic energy of its equivalent weight in explosives.

 

The small atomic bombs dropped on Japan were in the 10's of kilotons range (or in other words 10 of thousands of tons). The nukes to be used today are typically in the 100's of kiloton range. You can make the "hydrogen" bombs in the thousands to tens of thousands of thousands of tons range (megatons)...but those are considered overkill (heh) for the most part (in other words hydrogen bombs are about 1000 times more powerful than more "pure" atomic bombs).

 

So, what does a rock 130 meters in diameter weigh?

 

Probably a heck of a lot.

 

PS. Even if it did not start WW3...if that thing "airburst" up high over a populated area it could be bad...that one that did that over Russia a few year back was a tiny fraction of the size of this one. And the problem with the bigger ones is not only are they a bigger blast....but they can get lower in the atmosphere before they blast.....which is very bad news if you happen to sorta be under them when this happens.

 

PPS. IIRC even the famous Tunguska (sp?) which flatten/set on fire trees for many dozens (in not more like a hundred) of square miles was estimated at a fraction of this size.


Edited by starcanoe, 16 April 2018 - 11:36 AM.


#6 Tapio

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 11:51 AM

I have read that Tunguska meteor could have been asteroid 50-100m size, or comet 500m size.

#7 starcanoe

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 11:55 AM

Assuming more like rock/metal for Tunguska...if the Tunguska was 50 meters and this thing was more like 130....that is 130/50 cubed worse...so about 12 times worse...if Tunguska was 100 meters...thats still 1.3 cubed....so about twice as bad.


Edited by starcanoe, 16 April 2018 - 11:56 AM.

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#8 RussL

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 12:36 PM

I might start celebrating Passover from now on.
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#9 Special Ed

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 12:49 PM

Spaceweather has info.  They say the Tungkuska event object was 60 meters.  We had one days warning.  We're going to have to tighten up.


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#10 BrooksObs

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 12:49 PM

Way too much concern over these encounters today in my opinion. We've only been monitoring for such small objects in any careful manner for a decade, or two at most. There must have been unknown thousands of occasions in the course of the past couple of centuries when such bodies similarly whizzed past us without our knowledge and left us unmolested. On one occasion while reading old astronomical journals up at the Harvard Library I learned that E.E.Barnard once tracked an object, faintly visible to the unaided eye, across fully one-half of the heavens in a single night! That would surely put it even closer than yesterday's object to us and far larger too. However, the astronomical community never gave it more than a yawn back then.

 

The really critical judgement point concerning these bodies is that there hasn't been anything known to impact Earth of truly substantial dimensions in many centuries, and likely won't be for millennia yet to come. We've known such objects have been out there passing by us for generations as a fact, but there was never the hype and excessive concern as they garner these days. We are an unbelievably small target in space and the chances for an actual hit are more then just exceedingly remote. Sorry, but these situations don't even raise an eyebrow for me.

 

BrooksObs 



#11 bunyon

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 12:57 PM

I think the "craze" comes from being, or thinking we are, just on the cusp of being able to do something about them. Back in Barnard's day, even if he knew for 100% certainty that an extinction level impact was coming, what could he do? So why worry? 

 

Most of us get through our days without over-worrying about death because there is no way out. But put us in a position where we are in mortal danger and may be able to save ourselves and the pulse goes up. It goes up more if saving ourselves is a long shot. That's where we are now. We've advanced from being ignorant and powerless to knowledgeable and powerless. That is stress inducing. If/when we develop the technology to fend off rocks from space we'll lose the worry again, as we will be able to deflect the threat.  

 

I do agree worry about space rocks is overdone most of the time. It's a threat, sure, but there are far greater - both in magnitude and likelihood - that don't get nearly as much press.



#12 RussL

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 12:57 PM

True, but the Big One could be on its way nonetheless. We should be studying what to do about such an event.

#13 bunyon

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 01:06 PM

Sure. We should be studying it. Working on better access to space and knowledge of how to work in space, for a lot of reasons.

 

But worrying here (or just in our minds) won't accomplish anything. Worry never does.



#14 Classic8

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 01:22 PM

Although I don't worry about it, there seem to be a decent number of rocks that pass by closer than the moon. After a while, I get the impression of the Earth being in a shooting gallery.



#15 ilovecomets

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 01:29 PM

Nice close call.  It's unfortunate, but we probably need a big hit before the general public takes this stuff seriously.



#16 BrooksObs

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 01:39 PM

The real laugh here is that, just as in Barnard's day, if we were to find a body like the one under discussion here on a collision course, or even one several times larger, there is simply nothing we could do but watch it coming in and at the last minute accurately predict the impact zone! lol.gif  There is no existing, or even viable under development program, that will save us. The complexities involved and time available for an intercept simply isn't there. Nor could a systems of anti-missiles be maintained on the ready 24-7 without hobbling any government financially. For bigger "rocks", lacking actual knowledge of their physical make-up we could easily do far more harm than good attempting to blow them up anyway. For the truly big "rocks" it is increasingly unlikely that any such we've discovered so far honestly pose no threat to us in the foreseeable future. So why the concern?

 

BrooksObs


Edited by BrooksObs, 16 April 2018 - 01:42 PM.


#17 starcanoe

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 01:49 PM

 

 

The really critical judgement point concerning these bodies is that there hasn't been anything known to impact Earth of truly substantial dimensions in many centuries, and likely won't be for millennia yet to come. We've known such objects have been out there passing by us for generations as a fact, but there was never the hype and excessive concern as they garner these days. We are an unbelievably small target in space and the chances for an actual hit are more then just exceedingly remote. Sorry, but these situations don't even raise an eyebrow for me.

 

BrooksObs 

 

You don't think Tugunska....or something a bit bigger...hit something like LA...and it would be something to yawn at? And for that matter I seem to recall that Meteor Crater in AZ happened only 10 or 20 K ago. And again, something like that hitting a populated area would be bad news.

 

Yeah....we don't need to freak out...but on the other hand...one of these little bad boys could be bad news...and the chances are low...but they are not lottery level low.


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#18 Classic8

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 01:49 PM

The real laugh here is that, just as in Barnard's day, if we were to find a body like the one under discussion here on a collision course, or even one several times larger, there is simply nothing we could do but watch it coming in and at the last minute accurately predict the impact zone! lol.gif  There is no existing, or even viable under development program, that will save us. The complexities involved and time available for an intercept simply isn't there. Nor could a systems of anti-missiles be maintained on the ready 24-7 without hobbling any government financially. For bigger "rocks", lacking actual knowledge of their physical make-up we could easily do far more harm than good attempting to blow them up anyway. For the truly big "rocks" it is increasingly unlikely that any such we've discovered so far honestly pose no threat to us in the foreseeable future. So why the concern?

 

BrooksObs

The hope is that we could get to the point where we COULD do something about it (if we have a few years before impact), or at a minimum, be able to calculate the strike zone earlier so at least some people could get out of the way. At least for the bigger ones.



#19 starcanoe

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 01:51 PM

I That's where we are now. We've advanced from being ignorant and powerless to knowledgeable and powerless.

I like that one.

 

Kinda describes my career path too.


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#20 bunyon

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 02:05 PM

I mostly agree, BrooksObs but if, say, we had a week's foreknowledge that LA was going to be hit by a city-killer, it might be possible to evacuate. 

 

But, yeah, we're a long, long, looooooong way from being able to prevent such a catastrophe. 



#21 BrooksObs

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 02:21 PM

You don't think Tugunska....or something a bit bigger...hit something like LA...and it would be something to yawn at? And for that matter I seem to recall that Meteor Crater in AZ happened only 10 or 20 K ago. And again, something like that hitting a populated area would be bad news.

 

Yeah....we don't need to freak out...but on the other hand...one of these little bad boys could be bad news...and the chances are low...but they are not lottery level low.

 

Starcanoe, try calculating the odds of say a Tunguska-magnitude object impacting a major city relative to the surface area of the Earth. You'll find that such might occur perhaps once or twice in X number of millions of years. Incidentally, the Barringer Crater's dating varies widely, but I believe the figure centers more toward about 50k years than 10k or 20k. Super Volcanoes pose a distinctly greater threat in terms of their frequency of outburst and they impact the entire globe, not just specific localities...and we can't do anything about them either!  lol.gif

 

If one steps back an looks at things objectively, the odds decidedly favor a water impact, not that on a land mass. Even if such did take place, if outside the U.S., Europe, Russian, or the few other remaining first world countries, it wouldn't take long for the topic to return to the back burner in our age of the 24 hour news cycle. Believe me, the public's view of such a situation/threat is vastly different from that of folks on CN. The interest is high for a brief interval and the incident is quickly forgotten... unless it occurs right in their own backyard.

 

BrooksObs



#22 BrooksObs

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 02:26 PM

I mostly agree, BrooksObs but if, say, we had a week's foreknowledge that LA was going to be hit by a city-killer, it might be possible to evacuate. 

 

But, yeah, we're a long, long, looooooong way from being able to prevent such a catastrophe. 

 

Sorry, Bunyon, but the calculation would never be accurate enough for that. At best until the final day, or even the last few hours until impact, the strike zone would be unlikely to be determined more accurately than say maybe the State of California. Ordering an evacuation days ahead would likely put the public in far more danger than either saying nothing, or advise sheltering in place!

 

BrooksObs


Edited by BrooksObs, 16 April 2018 - 02:27 PM.


#23 starcanoe

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 02:29 PM

Starcanoe, try calculating the odds of say a Tunguska-magnitude object impacting a major city relative to the surface area of the Earth. You'll find that such might occur perhaps once or twice in X number of millions of years. Incidentally, the Barringer Crater's dating varies widely, but I believe the figure centers more toward about 50k years than 10k or 20k. Super Volcanoes pose a distinctly greater threat in terms of their frequency of outburst and they impact the entire globe, not just specific localities...and we can't do anything about them either!  lol.gif

 

If one steps back an looks at things objectively, the odds decidedly favor a water impact, not that on a land mass. Even if such did take place, if outside the U.S., Europe, Russian, or the few other remaining first world countries, it wouldn't take long for the topic to return to the back burner in our age of the 24 hour news cycle. Believe me, the public's view of such a situation/threat is vastly different from that of folks on CN. The interest is high for a brief interval and the incident is quickly forgotten... unless it occurs right in their own backyard.

 

BrooksObs

 

Glad you are able to not worry about anything you can't control or fix.

 

Yes, you can obsess overly about that which you cannot control...or something that has fairly low odds of happening....but IMO on the other hand you can go "aww frack it....what happens is what happens...no need to worry or deal with any bad thing happening"...which is IMO ALSO a dump arsed point of view.

 

I take you have insurance for various things not particularly likely to happen to you? Why do you even have insurance then? Or at least self insure because that would be a buttload cheaper than paying for insurance for this or that?



#24 starcanoe

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 02:32 PM

Sorry, Bunyon, but the calculation would never be accurate enough for that. At best until the final day, or even the last few hours until impact, the strike zone would be unlikely to be determined more accurately than say maybe the State of California. Ordering an evacuation days ahead would likely put the public in far more danger than either saying nothing, or advise sheltering in place!

 

BrooksObs

Meh...

 

You don't even need to evacuate to save lives...lets say you can't narrow it down to more than about a 1000 mile by 1000 mile area...and 30 minutes give or take...many lives will be saved by hunkering down and being ready to take care of things given a day or two notice than everybody going about their business as normal when a big random blast hits the fan.


Edited by starcanoe, 16 April 2018 - 02:33 PM.


#25 Classic8

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 02:40 PM

Meh...

 

You don't even need to evacuate to save lives...lets say you can't narrow it down to more than about a 1000 mile by 1000 mile area...and 30 minutes give or take...many lives will be saved by hunkering down and being ready to take care of things given a day or two notice than everybody going about their business as normal when a big random blast hits the fan.

Yea, I'd rather save a few lives than none.




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