Jump to content

  •  

CNers have asked about a donation box for Cloudy Nights over the years, so here you go. Donation is not required by any means, so please enjoy your stay.

Photo

Alpha Monocerotids

  • Please log in to reply
15 replies to this topic

#1 brentwood

brentwood

    Skylab

  • *****
  • topic starter
  • Posts: 4,002
  • Joined: 04 Nov 2005
  • Loc: SW BC Canada

Posted 17 November 2019 - 04:03 PM

I tried asking this question in one of the two other postings on this  shower but I think it was misunderstood or missed.  The high rates forecast for this shower must surely  be applicable for those locations that are in the predawn hours when it occurs, like Eastern Europe? Are we going to see much here in North America as it will be pre midnight for us ?  Maybe a few of the bigger ones that skim across the top of the atmosphere? 


  • Astroman007 and Dynan like this

#2 frankreed45

frankreed45

    Lift Off

  • *****
  • Posts: 20
  • Joined: 20 Dec 2013

Posted 17 November 2019 - 06:50 PM

See S&T website for a very good article concerning this possible meteor storm . May last for anywhere from 10 minutes to 40 minutes. The article suggests you be out by 11:00 PM , EST in order catch it , though it will probably start a little bit later. It's a very unpredictable event. Unfortunately here in Kentucky the forecast is for clouds and rain - as is so often the case. 



#3 Napp

Napp

    Surveyor 1

  • *****
  • Posts: 1,663
  • Joined: 26 Jul 2015
  • Loc: Florida, USA

Posted 17 November 2019 - 07:35 PM

https://www.skyandte...brx3mSLU1vXfIfE



#4 brentwood

brentwood

    Skylab

  • *****
  • topic starter
  • Posts: 4,002
  • Joined: 04 Nov 2005
  • Loc: SW BC Canada

Posted 18 November 2019 - 01:05 AM

Yes , I did read that S& T article, it was in the other thread. It doesn't mention any difference in the rate closer to dawn, which is normally mentioned in every other meteor shower? 



#5 Napp

Napp

    Surveyor 1

  • *****
  • Posts: 1,663
  • Joined: 26 Jul 2015
  • Loc: Florida, USA

Posted 18 November 2019 - 05:09 AM

Here is an article with a bit more detail. Yes Europe is better placed. This is take what you get in the narrow time window of the predicted outburst.

https://www.amsmeteo...tburst-in-2019/

Edited by Napp, 18 November 2019 - 05:13 AM.

  • brentwood, chrysalis and j.gardavsky like this

#6 Tony Flanders

Tony Flanders

    Hubble

  • *****
  • Posts: 17,161
  • Joined: 18 May 2006
  • Loc: Cambridge, MA, USA

Posted 18 November 2019 - 05:21 AM

I tried asking this question in one of the two other postings on this  shower but I think it was misunderstood or missed.  The high rates forecast for this shower must surely  be applicable for those locations that are in the predawn hours when it occurs, like Eastern Europe?


Depending exactly what you mean by Eastern Europe, the sky will be too bright to see much at the predicted time of the outburst. The situation is much better in westernmost Europe.

Are we going to see much here in North America as it will be pre midnight for us ?  Maybe a few of the bigger ones that skim across the top of the atmosphere?


North America is much bigger even than Eastern Europe! The Canadian Maritimes are very well situated for the predicted outburst, but the radiant will be below the horizon for the B.C. coast.

#7 Tony Flanders

Tony Flanders

    Hubble

  • *****
  • Posts: 17,161
  • Joined: 18 May 2006
  • Loc: Cambridge, MA, USA

Posted 18 November 2019 - 05:28 AM

Yes , I did read that S& T article, it was in the other thread. It doesn't mention any difference in the rate closer to dawn, which is normally mentioned in every other meteor shower?


That's not relevant when the entire event lasts 15 minutes! But in fact the radiant is highest shortly before dawn, as is the case with the great majority of meteor showers. (This fact, in turn, is due to Earth's orbital motion.) That's why meteor showers with flatter curves, such as the Perseids, have the highest rate shortly before dawn, and why locations where the Alpha Mon outburst occurs shortly before dawn -- western Europe and Africa -- will see the highest rates.

This is all assuming that it actually happens, which I refuse to take for granted. Though Jenniskens and Lyytinen do have a pretty good track record.


  • j.gardavsky likes this

#8 Napp

Napp

    Surveyor 1

  • *****
  • Posts: 1,663
  • Joined: 26 Jul 2015
  • Loc: Florida, USA

Posted 18 November 2019 - 05:44 AM

Will we here on the west side of “the pond” see hundreds of meteors? That remains to be seen. I for one will join other members of a couple local astronomy clubs gathering Thursday night at a beach parking lot for some observing followed by setting up on the beach to see whatever meteors show. Fingers crossed for clear skies.

Edited by Napp, 18 November 2019 - 05:51 AM.

  • Astroman007 likes this

#9 tchandler

tchandler

    Vanguard

  • *****
  • Posts: 2,400
  • Joined: 07 Aug 2014

Posted 18 November 2019 - 07:41 AM

Clouds, fog and rain are on tap for southern Ontario on the 21st. But in a sleight of hand,  I'm going to be in northern Manitoba on that day, where the forecast is an enigmatic partly cloudy - a.k.a. "your guess is as good as mine". 

 

Partly cloudy? I'll take it.

 

Radiant a whole heap of degrees below the horizon? I'll take it.

 

Only decent food in town is six hours away in Saskatoon? I'll take out.


Edited by tchandler, 18 November 2019 - 07:43 AM.


#10 CCD-Freak

CCD-Freak

    Surveyor 1

  • *****
  • Posts: 1,612
  • Joined: 17 Jan 2008
  • Loc: Whitesboro,Texas

Posted 18 November 2019 - 10:07 AM

Looks  like no meteors for me !!! mad.gif

 

Meteor outburst forecast.jpg

 

I hope someone catches this event.

 

 

John

CCD-Freak

WD5IKX

 

 



#11 brentwood

brentwood

    Skylab

  • *****
  • topic starter
  • Posts: 4,002
  • Joined: 04 Nov 2005
  • Loc: SW BC Canada

Posted 18 November 2019 - 12:44 PM

"Depending exactly what you mean by Eastern Europe, the sky will be too bright to see much at the predicted time of the outburst. The situation is much better in westernmost Europe."

 

I was just basing this on my family's time in the UK at 4:50 GMT being a few hours before dawn and farther east would be better.

That is a great article Napp and confirms what I thought, here on the west coast will be lucky to see a FEW Earth grazers! 

I have to admit that since reading about this event, I have been giving myself headaches thinking about where the meteor stream is in space and how it intercepts the Earth's orbit and how we get more meteors when we are at the front of the Earth just before dawn!



#12 Astroman007

Astroman007

    Cosmos

  • *****
  • Posts: 8,700
  • Joined: 27 Oct 2017
  • Loc: Northern Ontario, Canada

Posted 18 November 2019 - 03:24 PM

If I miss this and it ended up being a great event, I'll rage and curse my luck.



#13 Slartibartfast

Slartibartfast

    Viking 1

  • -----
  • Posts: 608
  • Joined: 28 May 2008
  • Loc: New Jersey

Posted 18 November 2019 - 05:44 PM

I wonder...  If the Earth passes through the debris left behind the comet, that means the orbits intersect, doesn't it?  And if the orbits intersect, does that mean someday this comet will hit the Earth?  hmm.gif

 

Uggg.  They're calling for "mostly cloudy" here for Thursday night. mad.gif



#14 Astroman007

Astroman007

    Cosmos

  • *****
  • Posts: 8,700
  • Joined: 27 Oct 2017
  • Loc: Northern Ontario, Canada

Posted 19 November 2019 - 09:00 AM

I wonder...  If the Earth passes through the debris left behind the comet, that means the orbits intersect, doesn't it?  And if the orbits intersect, does that mean someday this comet will hit the Earth?  hmm.gif

 

Uggg.  They're calling for "mostly cloudy" here for Thursday night. mad.gif

Not necessarily. Timing has a lot to do with such a scenario. It's not often, if ever, that the timing would be just right for a cosmic collision, though I'd like to see it.

 

And same here, drat.



#15 Napp

Napp

    Surveyor 1

  • *****
  • Posts: 1,663
  • Joined: 26 Jul 2015
  • Loc: Florida, USA

Posted 19 November 2019 - 10:35 AM

Not necessarily. Timing has a lot to do with such a scenario. It's not often, if ever, that the timing would be just right for a cosmic collision, though I'd like to see it.

It would likely be the last thing you ever see if it happens.



#16 Astroman007

Astroman007

    Cosmos

  • *****
  • Posts: 8,700
  • Joined: 27 Oct 2017
  • Loc: Northern Ontario, Canada

Posted 19 November 2019 - 11:42 AM

It would likely be the last thing you ever see if it happens.

Depending upon the size of the object, yes.

 

But that would still be something.




CNers have asked about a donation box for Cloudy Nights over the years, so here you go. Donation is not required by any means, so please enjoy your stay.


Recent Topics






Cloudy Nights LLC
Cloudy Nights Sponsor: Astronomics