Reviewing the last "updated list" I posted I see that we still have 9 star parties listed for this year with dates in the future that have not yet been cancelled. (The rescheduled NEAF and fall Astronomy Day are not counted as part of the 9 star parties.) Several months ago I would have felt pretty good about predicting that many of these could be held, especially those that typically have a registration near or below 100. I am not so sure now.
In general people have slacked off in their precautions and numbers have headed north. So how long before things pretty much get back to normal and amateur astronomers get back to holding meetings, engaging in outreach and attending star parties? Who knows. Maybe not for a good while. A few months ago, 6 months seemed like a long time. Not so much any more.
I think the larger events are in the most precarious position, even if possible, it may be a numbers game. Some threshold numbers may be impossible given local executive orders. In the case of the star party that I manage, the Deep South Star Gaze, we are planning on limiting attendance given the layout of bunks and bunkhouses. We can possibly do as many as 50 given our bunkhouse arrangements, perhaps a little less, maybe a little more, dependent upon family members and/or friends being ok with bunking together in a confined space. To that number we can add those that are tent camping or coming in an rv or camper. Realistically though I think our upper attendance limit will be something like 75 including that group. This is a far cry from the 135 to 150 we were used to seeing in the past. However these are the cards that we have been dealt and we will have to play them.