266 replies to this topic

[Augustus]

Hard to say, and the answer may hinge somewhat on the future of visual astronomy itself. If the number of sufficiently dark observing sites dwindles past a certain point 20 years from now, well, I don’t even want to think about that.

Light pollution issues aside, in premium Dobs I think we’ve already seen a push towards faster Dobs, especially in the larger apertures, with a lesser demand these days for f/5 scopes 20" and above. OTOH, there is a practical limit to how fast premium Dobs will go, as some opticians (Zambuto comes to mind) won’t go below f/4. So I don't really think something like my 18" Starmaster Zambuto f/4.3 (already over 15 years old) will be *too* outdated 10-15 years from now in the sense that a sound structure with good optics won't readily be rendered obsolete with the passage of time.

I think the next big revolution is thin meniscus mirrors as affordable borosilicate dwindles.

Light pollution has basically plateaued I think. It is up to current and future generations to try to get it to go back down

[CHASLX200]

I think the next big revolution is thin meniscus mirrors as affordable borosilicate dwindles.

Light pollution has basically plateaued I think. It is up to current and future generations to try to get it to go back down

Only getting worse in FL as more building just keeps going crazy as everyone and their monkey's uncle moves here.  I gave up on deep sky over 30 years ago and Dobs are for planets in my book. Sure as heck no 6" or 7" AP that cost 10 to 25k used can touch a good 12.5" Newt or bigger in my steady seeing.

[MeridianStarGazer]

That would probably 'apply' to many 'premium Dob' owners. Of course we all have our own personal 'cash issues' and possible financial impacts related to buying/owning/selling one of these scopes.

My 'bigger concern' here is - assuming the premise that premium Dobs lose value faster than other telescope types is correct - What does this say about the future of these scopes? Are "big premium Dobs" going the way of 1960's Cave Newts and Unitron long achro refractors? What does it mean for the "Lone Craftsman" and his side kicks - who make a living poring 'love' into building these telescopes? Will we who love premium Dobs soon be confined to the "Classics Forum" discussing the 'great Dobs of yore"?

What matters to the builders is how much the new ones sell for, not how much the used ones sell for. Obsession prices have been going up and up.

[MeridianStarGazer]

Better than the Chinese Dobs that literally rot away

I've not seen the bases get that bad. The reason I would not get one is high weight and bulk, and needing a new coat. Also adverse selection with mirror quality. The bases can get chewed corners but hold up ok.

[Peter Natscher]

All the big glass pushers are backlogged with orders for a year.  Likewise for the premium Dob builders like Teeter, StarStructure, JP Astrocraft, New Moon. Can't get enough big Dobs built to satisfy the demand right now.  That keeps premium Dob's depreciation low, if at all.

 

My theory is similar to what Ive seen in metal working. Lots of metal working equipment, like power hammers,screw presses etc tend to follow the same trend. People want to buy the smaller,easier to move pieces of equipment and that drives the market on them. Even though "x" will do 3x the work of "y" they want "Y" because its small and easy to move,transport and store..Dosnt require special circumstances to use etc.. I think that plays a role in large dobs too.

 

[Augustus]

Only getting worse in FL as more building just keeps going crazy as everyone and their monkey's uncle moves here.  I gave up on deep sky over 30 years ago and Dobs are for planets in my book. Sure as heck no 6" or 7" AP that cost 10 to 25k used can touch a good 12.5" Newt or bigger in my steady seeing.

Florida is defying trends in many ways right now, and its geography and population distribution are highly atypical. While light pollution may be on the upswing there I think at a national level it is pretty static - some places it grows, others it shrinks. The key is to get it so that growth subsides entirely and thus the average decreases. That's my take on the issue, anyway. With the boom of interest in space and astronomy driven by a variety of factors combined with increased awareness of the health and environmental hazards there is a perfect opportunity to spread awareness and take action on terrestrial light pollution - sadly the hype is all driven at things like Starlink despite the vastly exaggerated fears of its detractors and SpaceX's cooperation with groups like the NSF and IDA. But that's the topic for another thread.

[Jon Isaacs]

Better than the Chinese Dobs that literally rot away 

 

My 10 inch GSO is not rotting away. It's a 2002 model, I bought it in 2003.  The previous owner had left it out in the rain one night.  The steel tube is not rusting, the base edge taping had some delamination, my friend Tom fixed that and put a new coat of paint on about 2 years ago. 

 

 

Jon

[peleuba]

All the big glass pushers are backlogged with orders for a year.  Likewise for the premium Dob builders like Teeter, StarStructure, JP Astrocraft, New Moon. Can't get enough big Dobs built to satisfy the demand right now.  That keeps premium Dob's depreciation low, if at all.

 

Hi Peter,

 

This topic brings two of my all-time favorite things together:  (1) Telescopes and (2) Free Market.

 

I had responded to one of your posts - that I cannot find any longer - in this thread where you basically asked how much of as hit would you take if selling a premium dob on the pre-owned market.  I think if you are able to get 80% of new prices you are doing very well.   There are some exceptions, but not many.  Depreciation is real.  A few years back, Bob Schilling and I did an informal/unscientific study on this and this 80% number is what we came up with. 

 

The markets sometimes react in strange ways when the good or service is luxury (or boutique) in nature.  And your definition of "premium" may not be what mine is.  There are few suppliers:  Teeter is not really building anything custom and in volume.  Mag1 is not actively building scopes.  Starmaster is gone.  Obsession has for the most part left the market.  Albert High has retired etc.  As these high-end builders leave, the Asian imports have gotten better.  Make no mistake, I am not equating these, only reporting on what is happening.

 

Over the last few years an equilibrium has evolved/developed between the number of suppliers and the time to delivery.  Consumers are OK waiting a year for a mirror/scope from the remaining suppliers.  If they were not, there would be more suppliers jumping into the market to fill the demand.  The barrier to entry is not very high if you are a structure maker; higher if you're the optician.  

Edited by peleuba, 30 March 2021 - 09:06 AM.

[RAKing]

Packing and shipping were the two biggest stumbling blocks for me.  It was expensive for someone to ship the whole Dob to me and it was almost impossible for me to pack mine up when it came time to downsize and sell.

 

So I parted mine out and recovered a lot more of my costs by selling the primary mirror, secondary mirror, mirror mount, secondary holder and spider, focuser, plus the DSCs and computer separately.  Eventually, the wooden structure was recycled.

 

I still have some mirrors and parts in the basement.  Someday you will see them listed in the classified ads when I get around to it.

 

Cheers,

 

Ron

[Jon Isaacs]

This topic brings two of my all-time favorite things together:  (1) Telescopes and (2) Free Market.

 

 

Telescopes and observing, amateur astronomy in general, is probably my favorite topic.  

 

I find it interesting, some people like Bob S. and Chas buy and sell scopes and rarely keep them a year.  I am the other way, I buy them and keep them.  I spend a lot of time observing but I find that it takes a year to really start to know a Dob and begin to transform it into something that really works for me.  And it's a never ending process, I am still making changes to my 20 year old 12.5 inch Discovery..

 

It once looked like this:

 

 

It now looks like this:

 

 

So I guess one factor to consider is that people that sell scopes frequently are different fundamentally that those who buy them, use them and keep them.  This must somehow affect the market.  Being an engineer and inveterate tinkerer, I prefer to make a scope work for me rather than sell it and try something else. 

 

Jon

[Starman1]

Hi Peter,

 

This topic brings two of my all-time favorite things together:  (1) Telescopes and (2) Free Market.

 

I had responded to one of your posts - that I cannot find any longer - in this thread where you basically asked how much of a hit would you take if selling a premium dob on the pre-owned market.  I think if you are able to get 80% of new prices you are doing very well.   There are some exceptions, but not many.  Depreciation is real.  A few years back, Bob Schilling and I did an informal/unscientific study on this and this 80% number is what we came up with. 

 

The markets sometimes react is strange ways when the good or service is luxury (or boutique) in nature.  And your definition of "premium" may not be what mine is.  There are few suppliers:  Teeter is not really building anything custom and in volume.  Mag1 is not actively building scopes.  Starmaster is gone.  Obsession has for the most part left the market.  Albert Highe has retired etc.  As these high-end builders leave, the Asian imports have gotten better.  Make no mistake, I am not equating these, only reporting on what is happening.

 

Over the last few years an equilibrium that has evolved/developed between the number of suppliers and the time to delivery.  Consumers are OK waiting a year for a mirror/scope from the remaining suppliers.  If they were not, there would be more suppliers jumping into the market to fill the demand.  The barrier to entry is not very high if you are a structure maker; higher if you're the optician.  

You didn't mention about 10 other premium dob makers, like Starstructure, New Moon Telescopes, Waite Research, Optiques Fullum, Astrosystems, etc.

But I grant you that the percentage of premium dob scopes sold in the dob market is not, right now, as large a percentage as it might have been in the past, even if all of them are back-logged with orders.

 

I see a lot of threads here on CN about people looking at various dobs, and those threads never mention any brand other than the inexpensive Chinese dobs.

I don't think the Chinese scopes have really gotten better, but what people are willing to pay has gone down.

 

There are many reasons for that, including the huge damage to the economy done by Sars-Cov-2, but it is also due to a long term (at least 40 years) trend in the economy.

But, though I think a lot of premium dobs get sold in the used market, I don't think 80% is a likely selling figure. 

From what customers have mentioned to me, 40-50% is more common unless a lot of accessories are thrown in.

[peleuba]

 

I find it interesting, some people like Bob S. and Chas buy and sell scopes and rarely keep them a year.  

 

 

I can only speak for Bob as he's a friend and has largely left the hobby.  He has stayed with me several times at my house on his various journeys around the country to pick up different telescopes that he's bought.  He likes to try many different things and discover nuances about each.  This helps decide what's important to him.

 

The best telescope I have ever seen was his 20" John Pratte structure powered by a Mike Lockwood mirror.  It had everything and every convenience that an amateur astronomer could ever want.  And is/was a terrific performer. It was the culmination of 20 years of Bob's figuring it all out.  I liked it so much that I recently ordered a 16" F/3.7 John Pratte/Mike Lockwood scope.  

 

I can't explain Chas' affliction.

[peleuba]

You didn't mention about 10 other premium dob makers, like Starstructure, New Moon Telescopes, Waite Research, Optiques Fullum, Astrosystems, etc.

 

SNIP

 

I don't think the Chinese scopes have really gotten better, but what people are willing to pay has gone down.

 

SNIP

 

But, though I think a lot of premium dobs get sold in the used market, I don't think 80% is a likely selling figure. 

From what customers have mentioned to me, 40-50% is more common unless a lot of accessories are thrown in.

 

Yes, Don, correct.  I did not mention all of the manufacturers - I think I used the term  "etc." to suggest there were others I did not specifically mention by name.  Specific names were not germane to the overarching point. 

 

The Chinese scopes have gotten more feature rich - this is what I meant by "better".  Poor word choice, mea culpa. 

 

I would absolutely agree that a case can be made that 80% of retail value is optimistic.  Bob would not accept much below 80% for any scope he sold unless there were reasons for it.  Thus we settled on 80% as a back-of-the-napkin number.   I did say unscientific as you can never really know what something sells for.  But, I have rarely excepted anything below that.  I recently sold a one-off 11" StarMaster and I, basically, got 100% of what I paid.

 

I have an optical bench etc. and I will guarantee (with documentation) the performance of any telescope that I decide to list for sale.  Not many can or are willing to do this.  I have found this to be of value when selling.

 

I stand by my original thought:  If you can get 80% of new on a preowned Dob, you are doing well. 

Edited by peleuba, 30 March 2021 - 12:22 PM.

[Jon Isaacs]

I can only speak for Bob as he's a friend and has largely left the hobby.  He has stayed with me several times at my house on his various journeys around the country to pick up different telescopes that he's bought.  He likes to try many different things and discover nuances about each.  This helps decide what's important to him.

 

The best telescope I have ever seen was his 20" John Pratte structure powered by a Mike Lockwood mirror.  It had everything and every convenience that an amateur astronomer could ever want.  And is/was a terrific performer. It was the culmination of 20 years of Bob's figuring it all out.  I liked it so much that I recently ordered a 16" F/3.7 John Pratte/Mike Lockwood scope.  

 

I can't explain Chas' affliction.

We are all different.

 

My father was a oceanographer and "visionary" engineer.  My training is in engineering and I spent most of my life in research on the experimental side.  I designed and had fabricated literally millions of dollars worth of equipment used in research.  I am confident in my abilities to make a facility or piece of equipment work the way I want it to work, whether I designed it or someone else designed it. 

 

I think of a telescope as a companion, a friend.  You get a good friend, you keep it, you develop that friendship.  I learn from that relationship with the telescope.  A relationship that only lasts a short while, it really hasn't had a chance to develop,whether that's with a telescope or with a human being.  

 

Bob apparently had to depend on someone else, I depend on myself.  

 

But mostly, observing is not about the telescope, it's about hours at the eyepiece.  My telescopes are good enough that it is my skills that limit what I see.  As a long time cyclist, I know that the bicycle makes little difference, it's me, the rider that makes the difference.  That is my attitude towards telescopes.  Get a good bike and ride the heck out of it.

 

Jon

[turtle86]

Hi Peter,

 

This topic brings two of my all-time favorite things together:  (1) Telescopes and (2) Free Market.

 

I had responded to one of your posts - that I cannot find any longer - in this thread where you basically asked how much of as hit would you take if selling a premium dob on the pre-owned market.  I think if you are able to get 80% of new prices you are doing very well.   There are some exceptions, but not many.  Depreciation is real.  A few years back, Bob Schilling and I did an informal/unscientific study on this and this 80% number is what we came up with. 

 

The markets sometimes react in strange ways when the good or service is luxury (or boutique) in nature.  And your definition of "premium" may not be what mine is.  There are few suppliers:  Teeter is not really building anything custom and in volume.  Mag1 is not actively building scopes.  Starmaster is gone.  Obsession has for the most part left the market.  Albert High has retired etc.  As these high-end builders leave, the Asian imports have gotten better.  Make no mistake, I am not equating these, only reporting on what is happening.

 

Over the last few years an equilibrium has evolved/developed between the number of suppliers and the time to delivery.  Consumers are OK waiting a year for a mirror/scope from the remaining suppliers.  If they were not, there would be more suppliers jumping into the market to fill the demand.  The barrier to entry is not very high if you are a structure maker; higher if you're the optician.  

 

I think if a premium Dob is in well-maintained condition and has a mirror from one of the highly-sought opticians with the longer waiting lists (Lockwood, Zambuto, etc.) then 75-80% of new sounds about right.   

[Peter Natscher]

Paul,

 

With the current backlog, I think there is room now for additional mirror makers and telescope builders. The demand and money to buy new $15k-$25k Dobs exists. There's been a split economy the past decade, actually since the recession in 2008. The people buying the new big expensive telescopes haven't been hit economically like most others and will still pay for premium telescopes, new or used.

 

 

Hi Peter,

 

This topic brings two of my all-time favorite things together:  (1) Telescopes and (2) Free Market.

 

I had responded to one of your posts - that I cannot find any longer - in this thread where you basically asked how much of as hit would you take if selling a premium dob on the pre-owned market.  I think if you are able to get 80% of new prices you are doing very well.   There are some exceptions, but not many.  Depreciation is real.  A few years back, Bob Schilling and I did an informal/unscientific study on this and this 80% number is what we came up with. 

 

The markets sometimes react in strange ways when the good or service is luxury (or boutique) in nature.  And your definition of "premium" may not be what mine is.  There are few suppliers:  Teeter is not really building anything custom and in volume.  Mag1 is not actively building scopes.  Starmaster is gone.  Obsession has for the most part left the market.  Albert High has retired etc.  As these high-end builders leave, the Asian imports have gotten better.  Make no mistake, I am not equating these, only reporting on what is happening.

 

Over the last few years an equilibrium has evolved/developed between the number of suppliers and the time to delivery.  Consumers are OK waiting a year for a mirror/scope from the remaining suppliers.  If they were not, there would be more suppliers jumping into the market to fill the demand.  The barrier to entry is not very high if you are a structure maker; higher if you're the optician.  

Edited by Peter Natscher, 30 March 2021 - 10:57 AM.

[Peter Natscher]

Choosing a telescope from a US builder has the benefit of superior service.  A telescope from JP Astrocraft, Teeter, or Astro-Physics will have lifetime support when you want it. They are only a text or phone call away, and parts travel quickly.  Try that with someone in China or Europe.  Customs duty can be pretty expensive, too.

 

Yes, Don, correct.  I did not mention all of the manufacturers - I think I used the term  "etc." to suggest there were others I did not specifically mention by name.  Specific names were not germane to the overarching point. 

 

The Chinese scopes have gotten more feature rich - this is what I meant by "better".  Poor word choice, mea culpa. 

 

I would absolutely agree that a case can be made that 80% of retail value is optimistic.  Bob would not accept much below 80% for any scope he sold unless there were reasons for it.  Thus we settled on 80% as a back-of-the-napkin.   I did say unscientific as you can never really know what something sells for.  But, I have rarely excepted anything below that.  I recently sold a one-off 11" StarMaster and I, basically, got 100% of what I paid.

 

I have an optical bench etc. and I will guarantee (with documentation) the performance of any telescope that I decide to list for sale.  Not many can or are willing to do this.  I have found this to be of value when selling.

 

I stand by my original thought:  If you can get 80% of new on a preowned Dob, you are doing well. 

 

[turtle86]

I can only speak for Bob as he's a friend and has largely left the hobby.  He has stayed with me several times at my house on his various journeys around the country to pick up different telescopes that he's bought.  He likes to try many different things and discover nuances about each.  This helps decide what's important to him.

 

The best telescope I have ever seen was his 20" John Pratte structure powered by a Mike Lockwood mirror.  It had everything and every convenience that an amateur astronomer could ever want.  And is/was a terrific performer. It was the culmination of 20 years of Bob's figuring it all out.  I liked it so much that I recently ordered a 16" F/3.7 John Pratte/Mike Lockwood scope.  

 

I can't explain Chas' affliction.

 

I was very tempted by that 20" when he decided to sell it.  Sounded like an incredible scope.

[Bill Jensen]

I was very tempted by that 20" when he decided to sell it.  Sounded like an incredible scope.

I have been tempted by most of Bob's scopes when he sold them, since he improved them while owning them, if needed. I am even tempted now by his 8 inch NMT but fortunately for me (and my pocketbook) he lives over 12 hours away!

 

I once told Bob S that I wanted to move into his neighborhood so I could  just happen to stop by during new moon! 

[MeridianStarGazer]

Florida is defying trends in many ways right now, and its geography and population distribution are highly atypical. While light pollution may be on the upswing there I think at a national level it is pretty static - some places it grows, others it shrinks. The key is to get it so that growth subsides entirely and thus the average decreases. That's my take on the issue, anyway. With the boom of interest in space and astronomy driven by a variety of factors combined with increased awareness of the health and environmental hazards there is a perfect opportunity to spread awareness and take action on terrestrial light pollution - sadly the hype is all driven at things like Starlink despite the vastly exaggerated fears of its detractors and SpaceX's cooperation with groups like the NSF and IDA. But that's the topic for another thread.

I really hope you are right.
I see so much wrong with the world right now, and seeming to get worse.

[bunyon]

There may (or may not) be a market for premium mirror makers. The problem is, you can't just start being a premium mirror maker. Even if you can make a great mirror, people have to know and trust that you will do so every time. 

 

And there just aren't that many observers. I may be off, but I don't know that any of the premium astro gear folks make a rich living from astro gear alone. I'd love to hear that they do, they deserve it. But if I were to sell every premium amateur mirror sold in 2021, I doubt I'd get rich doing it. (to be clear, I cannot make a premium mirror. I probably can't make a serviceable mirror).

[No N in collimation]

It's buy a used telescope if the OTA were made of cardboard and the mirror were made of tin, if it was made by Isaac Newton. 

Edited by No N in collimation, 30 March 2021 - 02:54 PM.

[Kunama]

There may (or may not) be a market for premium mirror makers. The problem is, you can't just start being a premium mirror maker. Even if you can make a great mirror, people have to know and trust that you will do so every time. 

 

 

Even very good mirror makers can get it wrong occasionally, it is how they respond to a problem that makes a great mirror maker...... or so I have heard ......

Edited by Kunama, 30 March 2021 - 04:02 PM.

[Kunama]

SDM (Size Does Matter) Telescopes by Peter Read have about a 2year wait list.... but when the wait is over you end up with the finest of Dobsonians .......

[N-1]

 

My 10 inch GSO is not rotting away. It's a 2002 model, I bought it in 2003.  The previous owner had left it out in the rain one night.  The steel tube is not rusting, the base taping had some delamination, my friend Tom fixed that and put a new coat of paint on about 2 years ago. 

 

Jon

 

Yep, but the ol' Chinese-made junk myth just won't die. And that noobs destroy resale prices by not recognising value and buying Chinese junk instead, as another poster in this thread suggested. I say people with that attitude deserve every cent of depreciation on their supposed "premium" scopes.