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Long March Chinese rocket booster reentry

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#1 Cfreerksen

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 05:10 PM

Wasn't sure where to put this post.

 

2021-035B the errant rocket booster is predicted to reenter the atmosphere on the next few hours. It as the moment it predicted to fall at 01:30UTC. That's 6:30pm Pacific and 7:30pm Mountain. That would have it burn up somewhere over the Pacific Ocean. But if it survives a few more minutes past that it will enter over the US in Northern California and continue on over Nevada and Utah then start to make it's way east. You can see the animation here. https://orbit.ing-no...6XJU3EARCpVl2gc

 

It may be quite a spectacle if it doesn't hit you in the face!

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Edited by Cfreerksen, 08 May 2021 - 07:11 PM.

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#2 idclimber

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 05:50 PM

Aerospace is predicting 03:02 UTC +- 2hrs. Oddly that does not match your source. 


Edited by idclimber, 08 May 2021 - 06:10 PM.


#3 alphatripleplus

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 05:54 PM

Fun to watch one of the live trackers at the moment.



#4 Cfreerksen

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 06:04 PM

Aeropace is predicting 03:02 UTC +- 2hrs. Oddly that does not match your source. 

Yep, I just saw that. I am looking for any more possibly more accurate information.

 

Chris



#5 Cfreerksen

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 06:04 PM

Fun to watch one of the live trackers at the moment.

Link to what you are referring to?

 

Chris



#6 dswtan

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 06:08 PM

Try this one: https://mapshot.app/...longmarch.html 



#7 idclimber

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 06:09 PM

I am watching it on heavens-above.com



#8 idclimber

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 06:11 PM

I have been searching the last couple hours and the best updates seem to be from AeroSpace on their twitter feed. 



#9 Benschop

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 06:39 PM

Australia or the ocean near Australia seems to be the current prediction

 

R1Z1qN5.jpg


Edited by Benschop, 08 May 2021 - 06:43 PM.


#10 Cfreerksen

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 06:49 PM

Ok, I am thinking the link I was originally referring to the time stated on the map is my local time. All other times stated on the link were in UTC, I gathered that the time on the map would also be UTC but that seems to be not the case. It looks like it will be over my place in Utah 01:48 Mountain time, many hours after it should have reentered. I was able to find some other sites that have real time tracking.

 

Here they are for you to see.

 

https://mapshot.app/pkg/longmarch.html

https://www.youtube....h?v=29HGFep3Zek

 

Chris



#11 idclimber

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 06:50 PM

That prediction looks a bit older, but it does seem to include risk based on the current perigee. 


Edited by idclimber, 08 May 2021 - 06:51 PM.


#12 Benschop

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 07:00 PM

Any location prediction, except for the final hour before it hits ground, is at best a guesstimate due to the number of variables that can affect the re-entry timing.

At the velocity it is moving, even a 15 minute difference in touchdown results in a drastically different location.


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#13 JamesDuffey

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 07:02 PM

"...really a crap-shoot due to the number of variables..."

 

The proper terminology when referring to this technique to make predictions is Monte-Carlo simulation.smile.gif


Edited by JamesDuffey, 08 May 2021 - 07:03 PM.

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#14 Keith Rivich

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 07:22 PM

Australia or the ocean near Australia seems to be the current prediction

 

R1Z1qN5.jpg

I've been watching this site. Something odd, though, if you look at the live data in the lower right corner its shows the altitude increasing instead of decreasing. 

 

Edit: The altitude peaked at around 178km and is now dropping again. Does anyone know at approximately what altitude at which re-entry is imminent?


Edited by Keith Rivich, 08 May 2021 - 07:38 PM.

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#15 idclimber

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 08:24 PM

The US Space Force and Space-Track has a twitter feed. They predict 2:11 UTC off the north coast of Africa. This is +- one hour. That is now plus two hours. Probably the last orbit. 


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#16 t_image

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 08:30 PM

I've been watching this site. Something odd, though, if you look at the live data in the lower right corner its shows the altitude increasing instead of decreasing. 

 

Edit: The altitude peaked at around 178km and is now dropping again. Does anyone know at approximately what altitude at which re-entry is imminent?

150km/146km is a general rule.

Note the moving plots are based on tle's released at epoch moment and not really "live" as if you were sitting in USAF 18th SPCS Ops watchroom. Space weather and iiregular ellipsoid shape of Earth, major complicating factors.


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#17 Benschop

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 08:31 PM

In my limited understanding, due to the orbit being elliptical, the ellipse is shown as increasing and decreasing altitude, with an overall average descent (the ellipse keeps getting smaller)

Edited to add graphic (of a different re-entry) but illustrating this oscillation...

 

290px-Altitude_of_Tiangong-1.svg.png

I've been watching this site. Something odd, though, if you look at the live data in the lower right corner its shows the altitude increasing instead of decreasing. 

 

Edit: The altitude peaked at around 178km and is now dropping again. Does anyone know at approximately what altitude at which re-entry is imminent?


Edited by Benschop, 08 May 2021 - 09:48 PM.

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#18 t_image

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 09:28 PM

The US Space Force and Space-Track has a twitter feed. They predict 2:11 UTC off the north coast of Africa. This is +- one hour. That is now plus two hours. Probably the last orbit. 

Please note I don't think they (twit feeds) are what you think they are.

Find the twitter link on their .mil/.org logged in, websitepage if true.


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#19 Cfreerksen

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 09:57 PM

https://twitter.com/...7003038722?s=20

 

Chris


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#20 t_image

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Posted 08 May 2021 - 10:48 PM

guess everyone can go home now......

 'nothing to see here' and no, you can't have your money back....

I'm happy it turned out nothing to write home about!


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#21 Dave Mitsky

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Posted 09 May 2021 - 01:07 AM

https://www.msn.com/...ean/ar-BB1gvKjX



#22 alphatripleplus

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Posted 09 May 2021 - 03:04 PM

I was hoping there would be reports on some of the debris if visible.



#23 Dave Mitsky

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Posted 09 May 2021 - 09:12 PM

There is video of the Long March 5B in the segment at https://www.cnn.com/...knd-scn-vpx.cnn




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