Sadly, another storm is not likely to happen until 2099, according to meteor scientists’ latest forecasts, though there is likely to be enhanced activity around 2031 and 2064 when the comet next returns. But observers should always be prepared for the unexpected as the Leonids have been known to spring surprises.
The Wiki page shows enhanced ZHRs for 2022 and 2033.
2022 17-21 November 19 Nov 250-300 (predicted)
2033 17 Nov 300-400 (predicted)
The AMO 2022 ZHR does not indicate anything out of the ordinary.
Next period of activity: November 3rd, 2022 to December 2nd, 2022
The Leonids are best known for producing meteor storms in the years of 1833, 1866, 1966, 1999, and 2001. These outbursts of meteor activity are best seen when the parent object, comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, is near perihelion (closest approach to the sun). Yet it is not the fresh material we see from the comet, but rather debris from earlier returns that also happen to be most dense at the same time. Unfortunately, it appears that the earth will not encounter any dense clouds of debris until 2099. Therefore, when the comet returns in 2031 and 2064, there will be no meteor storms, but perhaps several good displays of Leonid activity when rates are in excess of 100 per hour. The best we can hope for now until the year 2030 is peaks of around 15 shower members per hour and perhaps an occasional weak outburst when the earth passes near a debris trail. The Leonids are often bright meteors with a high percentage of persistent trains.
Shower details - Radiant: 10:17 +21.6° - ZHR: 15 - Velocity: 43.5 miles/sec (swift - 70km/sec) - Parent Object: 55P/Tempel-Tuttle
Next Peak - The Leonids will next peak on the Nov 17-18, 2022 night. On this night, the moon will be 36% full.
The IMO 2022 Meteor Shower Calendar does indicate some enhanced activity this year.
Additionally, there are a few encounters with dust trails in the following days:
Model calculations of Maslov (2007) and Sato (2021) show an approach of the 1733 dust trail
on November 19. Maslov gives 06h UT, Sato obtains 06h20m − 06h27m UT (λ = 236 .
◦576 and λ = 236 . ◦581; different ejection velocities).
The possible activity level depends on the ejection velocity (which has a negative sign in this
case and observations of meteors from such trails are scarce). Maslov adds: meteors should be
bright, a ZHR of 200+ seems possible despite the uncertainties. Sato comments: ZHR may
reach 50+ because the model suggests that the dust tends to be concentrated.18 IMO INFO(3-21)
An encounter with the 1600 trail (weak rate possible near November 18, 07h UT; λ =
235 .◦6) is found by Vaubaillon (2021). A weak rate enhancement may be visible due to the 1800
trail later on November 21, 15h UT (Maslov, 2007).
The nodal maximum occurs just after the Moon’s last quarter phase, and the conditions are
slightly better for the later encounters. Visual observers need to shield the direct moonlight.
The shower’s radiant is usefully observable only after local midnight or so north of the equator,
later for places further south.