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Anyone making plans for the possible outburst of meteors from 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 on May 31st?

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#151 MarMax

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Posted 31 May 2022 - 07:57 PM

Yucca Valley, CA

SQM-L 21.37

9-11 pm PST

 

My wife and I went out to Yucca Valley and spent the night with a friend to observe the shower and do some EAA. My wife was the dedicated meteor observer and I was observing between fiddling with the EAA rig. All observations were naked eye.

 

My wife observed 46 with the majority being very bright and very short. There were 3-4 that were 2-3x the length of the majority and 2 that displayed a fast dissipating trail. There was a brief multiple (4-5) faint meteors transiting from Serpens to Scorpius and my wife and I both observed this. I only observed about 17 with many more instances of "wish meteors".

 

It's possible the wish meteors were real, but they were just so faint and not quite in my direct vision so I can't claim victory. If I include the wish meteors then my count would be about 25.

 

Overall a very nice Tau Herculid display.


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#152 39.1N84.5W

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Posted 31 May 2022 - 09:18 PM

That's an interesting adjective.... "wish" meteors. Is this something you heard or came up with? Certainly I've heard of making a wish... but to describe a meteor... it's gnu to me.
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#153 OBXNC

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Posted 31 May 2022 - 10:36 PM

Will this shower become a regular on May 30 every year, or is this a one and done?

 

 I was impressed by what I observed.


Edited by OBXNC, 31 May 2022 - 10:37 PM.


#154 MarMax

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Posted 31 May 2022 - 10:43 PM

That's an interesting adjective.... "wish" meteors. Is this something you heard or came up with? Certainly I've heard of making a wish... but to describe a meteor... it's gnu to me.

I just made it up. Both my wife and I had many wish meteors. Your not sure if it was an illusion or you actually saw it. It's that staring up and trying to see as much sky as possible for a prolonged time period that makes my eyes play tricks on me.


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#155 Jan Hattenbach

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 05:11 AM

Hi,

 

preliminary analysis by IMO suggests the TAH peaked on May 31 at 04:52 UTC at a ZHR of 50-60.

 

See: https://www.imo.net/...r=TAH&year=2022

 

As more data comes in, these values may shift a little. I still have to submit my countings, to do my share!

 

cs,

Jan


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#156 james7ca

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 06:18 AM

Well, a ZHR of 53, not quite the hoped for 1,000. crazy.gif

 

It looks like there was a little more activity in the hours (minutes?) prior to 5:00 UTC rather than after which seems to agree with many of the reports here on CN. But, the ZNR was still over 40 at 5:20 UTC. My first image was taken at 4:59 UTC so I guess I didn't miss the apparent peak by very much.


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#157 Redbetter

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 06:48 AM

This one was so much better than the big fat goose egg of the "Alpha Monocerotids" prediction two years ago.  That one actually cost me the opportunity for a DSO observing session as well just to try to see it...so it was a big negative and black eye for meteor shower/storm predictions.

 

I was impressed that the actual poorly named (not in Hercules) Tau Herculid peak happened and lasted for a few hours.


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#158 Jure Atanackov

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 07:01 AM

Hi,

 

preliminary analysis by IMO suggests the TAH peaked on May 31 at 04:52 UTC at a ZHR of 50-60.

 

See: https://www.imo.net/...r=TAH&year=2022

 

As more data comes in, these values may shift a little. I still have to submit my countings, to do my share!

 

cs,

Jan

This is super interesting! The TAH were barely detected so far, only producing detectable (very low) rates during dust trail encounters in 2011 and 2017, yet this year they produced an activity curve with an obvious broad background(?) component that looks more like an annual shower (like LYR or QUA). Analysis will be super interesting!

 

Seems my estimate of ZHR ~30-40 in twilight at 1:30 UTC was not too far off. 

 

It is also interesting that TAH were not very faint. There are so many photos and videos of bright shower members coming in. Speed them up to Leonid speeds and you have a shower of fireballs :) Any TAH brighter than magnitude +4 was of sufficient size to make a LEO fireball. Light curves of these meteors are also interesting. Looks like many had an early brightness peak with multiple bursts towards the end of the path. This is very similar to brighter meteors during the 2011 Draconid outburst. I wonder if this is typical of very slow meteor showers.

CS!Jure


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#159 Jan Hattenbach

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 09:56 AM

Report to IMO is out. Here is all I found on my camera from 03:28 to 05:07 UT. Pity we didn't have more time:

 

TAH May 31, 03:28-05:07 UTC

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#160 Dave Mitsky

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 01:18 PM

Comet hunter Don Machholz discusses the results of the Tau Herculid meteor shower starting at 5:40 at https://donmachholz....-meteor-shower/


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#161 Rustler46

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 02:02 PM

While this meteor shower was not the hoped-for meteor storm, it was what has been called "decent". Few have seen meteor storms like the 3 times per century Leonids. For that one I saw a glimpse through broken clouds around the year 2000. At times through holes in the cloud cover I could see several meteors simultaneously. I hope to see the next one in 2033.

 

The best meteor shower I have witnessed is the 2017 Geminid Shower. While it was nowhere near being a storm, photographs taken over two nights produced the following composite image that perhaps shows what a meteor storm would look like in real time. The winter Milky Way is shown on the right side of the image.

 

Geminids 2017-5 4 3 2 1 Small.jpg

Sony NEX-5N, Samyang 2.8mm fisheye lens, f/2.8, ISO 1600, 30 second exposures on fixed tripod, best meteor trails culled from over 800 individual photos.

 

I have wondered about the source of the unequal distribution of meteors in the two halves of the sky. Perhaps it is due to which half was in the leading or following hemisphere of the Earth in its orbit.

 

Clear Skies,

Russ


Edited by Rustler46, 01 June 2022 - 04:55 PM.

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#162 Jure Atanackov

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 02:16 PM

Absolutely loving all the posts and reports coming in, it's been a while since there was such excitement about a meteor shower. Don't forget that 2022 is an excellent year for meteor shower outbursts. Still coming up:

 

- the Taurid resonant swarm: we will likely be treated to an extended enhancement of the Taurids in late October and first half of November. Resonant swarm years are rich in fireballs and typically produce higher hourly rates. In 2015 I was out for 11 nights in early November and what a show it was: 52 fireballs! The brightest a -15 mag Taurid, also had *two*  -10 Taurids, a couple of -8s, several -7s and a bunch between -6 and -3. Also had sustained rates of 20-40 Taurids per hour, with about 1-3 fireballs per hour. 2005 was also excellent; overcast here for much of it, but the first night I got out I got 4 fireballs in 2 hours (-10, -8, -6, -4). Fully expecting this year to deliver again!

 

- the Leonids may produce a significant outburst on November 19th around 6h UT, with ZHR possibly above 50 and a slight chance of 200+. It's been 20 years since we've seen 200+ from the Leonids, high time for another outburst :)

 

- possibly a minor enhancement of the Alpha Aurigids on Sept 1st, 00h55m UT (last year was really good so the model seems to work).

 

- possibly some activity from the September Perseids on Sept 10th around 2h UT (2008 and 2013 produced spectacular outbursts of very bright meteors).

 

- some enhancement with the Ursids on Dec 22 around 10-11h UT and 14h UT, maybe up to ZHR~30 (3x normal peak activity).

 

I also tend to keep an eye on the October Camelopardalids (peak on Oct 6th, ~4h UT); I fully expect this shower to produce an unexpected and major outburst in the future.

/intermezzo
CS!Jure


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#163 starcanoe

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 02:53 PM

Jure

 

I want to thank you for giving us all the heads up with this thread. While I didn't get a storm....I got a nice meteor shower and couple of nice fireballs. Haven't had that in awhile. Thanks again.



#164 Dave Mitsky

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 03:23 PM

While this meteor shower was not the hoped-for meteor storm, it was what has been called "decent". Few have seen meteor storms like the 3 times per century Leonids. For that one I saw a glimpse through broken clouds around the year 2000. At times through holes in the cloud cover I could see several meteors simultaneously. I hope to see the next one in 2033.

Unless some more recent information states otherwise, from what I've read a Leonid meteor storm may not occur again until 2099.

 

Approximately every 33 years Earth passes through denser filaments of Tempel-Tuttle dust that were emplaced during previous visits of the comet — the sky literally rains with meteors. During the 1966 storm, meteor counts briefly reached 10–20 meteors PER SECOND over Western North America. The 2001 Leonid storm with its numerous fireballs remains the top meteor shower of my life. Studies have shown that no Leonid storms will occur in either 2033 or 2066 (darn!). The next potential storm isn't due until 2099.

 

https://skyandtelesc...-to-the-rescue/


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#165 starcanoe

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 04:00 PM

Dave.

 

Look up Leonids on Wikipedia. Look at references 74 and 75. Some interesting predictions. Don't just look at the charts. Read the text below the charts as well. Some possible interesting Leonid years still ahead (but not TOO far)...And nicely this year might give us a bit of a show.



#166 spkerer

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 04:01 PM

Absolutely loving all the posts and reports coming in, it's been a while since there was such excitement about a meteor shower. Don't forget that 2022 is an excellent year for meteor shower outbursts. Still coming up:

 

- the Taurid resonant swarm: we will likely be treated to an extended enhancement of the Taurids in late October and first half of November. Resonant swarm years are rich in fireballs and typically produce higher hourly rates. In 2015 I was out for 11 nights in early November and what a show it was: 52 fireballs! The brightest a -15 mag Taurid, also had *two*  -10 Taurids, a couple of -8s, several -7s and a bunch between -6 and -3. Also had sustained rates of 20-40 Taurids per hour, with about 1-3 fireballs per hour. 2005 was also excellent; overcast here for much of it, but the first night I got out I got 4 fireballs in 2 hours (-10, -8, -6, -4). Fully expecting this year to deliver again!

 

- the Leonids may produce a significant outburst on November 19th around 6h UT, with ZHR possibly above 50 and a slight chance of 200+. It's been 20 years since we've seen 200+ from the Leonids, high time for another outburst smile.gif

 

- possibly a minor enhancement of the Alpha Aurigids on Sept 1st, 00h55m UT (last year was really good so the model seems to work).

 

- possibly some activity from the September Perseids on Sept 10th around 2h UT (2008 and 2013 produced spectacular outbursts of very bright meteors).

 

- some enhancement with the Ursids on Dec 22 around 10-11h UT and 14h UT, maybe up to ZHR~30 (3x normal peak activity).

 

I also tend to keep an eye on the October Camelopardalids (peak on Oct 6th, ~4h UT); I fully expect this shower to produce an unexpected and major outburst in the future.

/intermezzo
CS!Jure

Do us all a favor, please, and re-post of these reminders as the specific events approach!

 

Thanks!


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#167 starcanoe

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 04:04 PM

I might watch the camel pards...but I sure ain't going to try to pronounce their name in public (or private for that matter....Alexa records things...)



#168 Dave Mitsky

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 04:25 PM

Dave.

 

Look up Leonids on Wikipedia. Look at references 74 and 75. Some interesting predictions. Don't just look at the charts. Read the text below the charts as well. Some possible interesting Leonid years still ahead (but not TOO far)...And nicely this year might give us a bit of a show.

I have looked at the Wikipedia page on the Leonids.  None of those predictions reach storm levels.



#169 Dave Mitsky

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 04:34 PM

Sadly, another storm is not likely to happen until 2099, according to meteor scientists’ latest forecasts, though there is likely to be enhanced activity around 2031 and 2064 when the comet next returns. But observers should always be prepared for the unexpected as the Leonids have been known to spring surprises.

https://www.skymania...-meteor-shower/

 

The Wiki page shows enhanced ZHRs for 2022 and 2033.
 

2022 17-21 November 19 Nov 250-300 (predicted)

 

2033  17 Nov 300-400 (predicted)

 

The AMO 2022 ZHR does not indicate anything out of the ordinary.

Leonids
Next period of activity: November 3rd, 2022 to December 2nd, 2022

The Leonids are best known for producing meteor storms in the years of 1833, 1866, 1966, 1999, and 2001. These outbursts of meteor activity are best seen when the parent object, comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, is near perihelion (closest approach to the sun). Yet it is not the fresh material we see from the comet, but rather debris from earlier returns that also happen to be most dense at the same time. Unfortunately, it appears that the earth will not encounter any dense clouds of debris until 2099. Therefore, when the comet returns in 2031 and 2064, there will be no meteor storms, but perhaps several good displays of Leonid activity when rates are in excess of 100 per hour. The best we can hope for now until the year 2030 is peaks of around 15 shower members per hour and perhaps an occasional weak outburst when the earth passes near a debris trail. The Leonids are often bright meteors with a high percentage of persistent trains.

 

Shower details - Radiant: 10:17 +21.6° - ZHR: 15 - Velocity: 43.5 miles/sec (swift - 70km/sec) - Parent Object: 55P/Tempel-Tuttle
 

Next Peak - The Leonids will next peak on the Nov 17-18, 2022 night. On this night, the moon will be 36% full.

https://www.amsmeteo...hower-calendar/

The IMO 2022 Meteor Shower Calendar does indicate some enhanced activity this year.

Additionally, there are a few encounters with dust trails in the following days:
Model calculations of Maslov (2007) and Sato (2021) show an approach of the 1733 dust trail
on November 19. Maslov gives 06h UT, Sato obtains 06h20m − 06h27m UT (λ = 236 .
◦576 and λ = 236 . ◦581; different ejection velocities).

The possible activity level depends on the ejection velocity (which has a negative sign in this
case and observations of meteors from such trails are scarce). Maslov adds: meteors should be
bright, a ZHR of 200+ seems possible despite the uncertainties. Sato comments: ZHR may
reach 50+ because the model suggests that the dust tends to be concentrated.18 IMO INFO(3-21)

 

An encounter with the 1600 trail (weak rate possible near November 18, 07h UT; λ =

235 .◦6) is found by Vaubaillon (2021). A weak rate enhancement may be visible due to the 1800
trail later on November 21, 15h UT (Maslov, 2007).

The nodal maximum occurs just after the Moon’s last quarter phase, and the conditions are
slightly better for the later encounters. Visual observers need to shield the direct moonlight.
The shower’s radiant is usefully observable only after local midnight or so north of the equator,
later for places further south.


https://www.imo.net/...wer/cal2022.pdf


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#170 Wes Stone

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Posted 01 June 2022 - 11:48 PM

This is super interesting! The TAH were barely detected so far, only producing detectable (very low) rates during dust trail encounters in 2011 and 2017, yet this year they produced an activity curve with an obvious broad background(?) component that looks more like an annual shower (like LYR or QUA). Analysis will be super interesting!

Jure, When I look at the Figure 6 in the 2005 paper from Wiegert et al https://physics.uwo....RAS.361.638.pdf (also reproduced as Figure 3 in the Joe Rao paper), I think I can visualize that background component as the 1897 trail (observations from 5/30) and the 1892 trail (observations from 5/31 UT) as well as scattered meteors before and after. 

 

I think the big question for these trails going in was the presence or absence of activity in 1930. And then there's the question of how much the 1995 debris contributed to this year's peak rates. I wonder if there are any tell-tale signs in orbits derived from radar or from multi-station cameras that might differentiate the sources?

 

Wes Stone

Klamath Falls, OR USA


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#171 starcanoe

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Posted 02 June 2022 - 08:31 AM

 

 

I think the big question for these trails going in was the presence or absence of activity in 1930. And then there's the question of how much the 1995 debris contributed to this year's peak rates. I wonder if there are any tell-tale signs in orbits derived from radar or from multi-station cameras that might differentiate the sources?

 

Wes Stone

Klamath Falls, OR USA

 

Here is something to consider. Seems reasonable plausible that this comet could have been breaking up for awhile (not just in 95). So there exist the possibility it had previous massive breakups in past. There may well be older streams with lots of debris in them from those events that we haven't encountered yet but will encounter in the future. The Tau Herculids might be worth keeping an eye on even if on average they are just a so so or even poor shower.


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#172 Dave Mitsky

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Posted 02 June 2022 - 02:32 PM

https://m.youtube.co...eature=youtu.be


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#173 Dave Kodama

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Posted 03 June 2022 - 12:04 AM

Results from southern California:

 

  https://astrocamera..../0530/index.htm

 

Dave K.


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#174 Dave Mitsky

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Posted 03 June 2022 - 02:15 AM

Results from southern California:

 

  https://astrocamera..../0530/index.htm

 

Dave K.

Those are great images, Dave!



#175 starblue

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Posted 03 June 2022 - 03:37 AM

I saw 18 meteors Mon night-Tue morning--12 Herculids, 6 sporadics--over ~1.5 hr observing period (1 hr, skip 1/2 hr, then 1/2 hr more). My wife and I arrived at our dark sky location about 10:15pm MDT and it took about an hour to get organized and set up, so picture-taking didn't commence until 11:10pm and ran for 2 hours worth of 1-minute exposures. There were copious satellites, many of them appearing from nowhere in the middle of the photograph just SW of Arcturus apparently coming out of shadow and then proceeding towards an edge, so finding the 9 subs with Herculid candidates was tedious (and 2 of those turned out to be sporadics despite appearances). Those 9 I assembled into one composite. marked their trails with arrows, then drew lines through their tracks to locate the radiant, which seems to be a bit N of the predicted spot. I've included the composite here for your inspection.

 

AP_04_tauHer_web_CN.jpg

 

 

 

 


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