29 replies to this topic

[bill1970]

A recent issue of Sky and Telescope had cloud cover data for a number of years for the total solar eclipse on April 8,2024. Knowing that past climate data is not always accurate, a five day forecast starting on April 4, 2024 can be made for each of the dozen cities mentioned in Sky and Telescope from Uvalde, Tx to Plattsburgh, NY. Perhaps Jay Anderson, the eclipse weather guru, can make a table of these cities giving each city an A thru F rating. This table will be updated every 12 hours and ratings can change every 12 hours. The last update can be made the midnight before the eclipse, leaving plenty of time for travel.

[foxwoodastronomy]

I provided a lot of the planning, eclipse content, images, and graphics for this article which was posted today on AccuWeather and written by my friend Brian Lada.  It's an overview of planning for the 2024 eclipse overall.  You guys know most of this stuff, but it's a nice read.  Please share it.  Especially with eclipse novices.  https://www.accuweat...to-know/1505197

Edited by foxwoodastronomy, 05 April 2023 - 08:38 PM.

[Alan D. Whitman]

A recent issue of Sky and Telescope had cloud cover data for a number of years for the total solar eclipse on April 8,2024. Knowing that past climate data is not always accurate, a five day forecast starting on April 4, 2024 can be made for each of the dozen cities mentioned in Sky and Telescope from Uvalde, Tx to Plattsburgh, NY. Perhaps Jay Anderson, the eclipse weather guru, can make a table of these cities giving each city an A thru F rating. This table will be updated every 12 hours and ratings can change every 12 hours. The last update can be made the midnight before the eclipse, leaving plenty of time for travel.

Jay Anderson does usually give weather forecast discussions for areas along the path in the days leading up to totality, although it would be asking a lot to expect that he would have the time to study the entire path twice a day in the detail that you are asking for since Jay will be eclipse-chasing himself, not sitting at home in Winnipeg. His posts would be on the Solar Eclipse Mailing List, not CloudyNights. Usually the government weather offices whose area of responsibility includes part of the path will be aware of the upcoming totality and will give an informed discussion of prospects in their area which can help guide your decisions of where to run to, together with what you see developing in the sky.

[Bob Campbell]

A recent issue of Sky and Telescope had cloud cover data for a number of years for the total solar eclipse on April 8,2024. Knowing that past climate data is not always accurate, a five day forecast starting on April 4, 2024 can be made for each of the dozen cities mentioned in Sky and Telescope from Uvalde, Tx to Plattsburgh, NY. Perhaps Jay Anderson, the eclipse weather guru, can make a table of these cities giving each city an A thru F rating. This table will be updated every 12 hours and ratings can change every 12 hours. The last update can be made the midnight before the eclipse, leaving plenty of time for travel.

Hopefully you will get clear bright skies.

 

IMO, it is merely a matter of luck. Current weather forecasts can't even predict 12hrs in advance, let alone over one year.

 

Its a random process, and in light of the fact that the climate appears to be changing, even trends are of little value.

 

Just hope for the best, and fingers crossed.

 

Bob

[Alan D. Whitman]

 

 

IMO, it is merely a matter of luck. Current weather forecasts can't even predict 12hrs in advance

 

If that were true, I would not be 12 out of 12 in chasing central eclipses, ten totalities and two annulars. My knowledge of meteorology, use of forecast charts (not basic public forecasts), using the opinions of government meteorologists in local weather offices who know their local weather factors well, watching satellite photo loops, and watching what I see developing in the sky allowed me to divert to find clear sky or adequate holes for totality in 1979 in Washington state, totality in 1991 south of Mazatlan when I found a hole for our nine bus tour, the 1994 annular in Oklahoma when I did not go to west Texas as had been planned due to poor weather there, 1998 in the Caribbean when I was responsible for eclipse weather consultation for three total eclipse cruise ships on a day when the weather was very different from the climatology, 2009 in China when I took our tour bus well south of Wuhan to clearer sky, and the 2012 annular in Nevada when we diverted further south than planned to avoid developing clouds.

 

In 1963 in Quebec I stayed put because I didn't know any better, and was a teenager without a car. That was the only total eclipse that I have ever viewed through cloud.

 

In 2006 in Turkey, 2012 in the South Pacific, 2017 in Oregon, and 2019 in Chile no last minute changes in plans had to be made, but would have been had the weather not been ideal. In 2015 we were on a charter jet above the cloudy North Atlantic between the Faeroes and Iceland so weather was not a factor (unless it had prevented the jet from flying).

 

If I hadn't moved to clearer skies as the meteorology on eclipse day required, I would be 6 out of 12, not 12 out of 12.

Edited by Alan D. Whitman, 07 April 2023 - 11:27 AM.

[MEE]

If that were true, I would not be 12 out of 12 in chasing central eclipses, ten totalities and two annulars.

For the 2017 eclipse, there were only a few areas that were mostly cloudy or overcast (near Kansas City and in parts of GA, SC) and those areas were relatively small- anyone there could have driven less than 3 hours to get into either clear or partly cloudy skies (not counting traffic)

Everyone else in the path had mostly clear or partly cloudy skies, which would have only needed a short range drive to a clear patch (if one was needed at all)

Alan: which eclipse did you have to make the most effort to escape from the clouds?

My biggest concern is ending up in an area that has a forecast for clear or mostly clear skies- and they are that way leading up to totality - but then the drop in temperature forms clouds right before totality

[Bob Campbell]

If that were true, I would not be 12 out of 12 in chasing central eclipses, ten totalities and two annulars. My knowledge of meteorology, use of forecast charts (not basic public forecasts), using the opinions of government meteorologists in local weather offices who know their local weather factors well, and watching what I see developing in the sky allowed me to divert to find clear sky or adequate holes for totality in 1979 in Washington state, totality in 1991 south of Mazatlan when I found a hole for our nine bus tour, the 1994 annular in Oklahoma when I did not go to west Texas as had been planned due to poor weather there, 1998 in the Caribbean when I was responsible for eclipse weather consultation for three total eclipse cruise ships on a day when the weather was very different from the climatology, 2009 in China when I took our tour bus well south of Wuhan to clearer sky, and the 2012 annular in Nevada when we diverted further south than planned to avoid developing clouds.

 

In 1963 I stayed put because I didn't know any better, and was a teenager without a car. That was the only total eclipse that I have ever viewed through cloud.

 

In 2006 in Turkey, 2012 in the South Pacific, 2017 in Oregon, and 2019 in Chile no last minute changes in plans had to be made, but would have been had the weather not been ideal. In 2015 we were on a charter jet above the cloudy North Atlantic between the Faeroes and Iceland so weather was not a factor (unless it had prevented the jet from flying).

 

If I hadn't moved to clearer skies as the meteorology on eclipse day required, I would be 6 out of 12, not 12 out of 12.

so you probably should be advising NOAA and other places, if you have this special skill. The original poster wanted to know beforehand what the weather will be like in a year. Sounds like you adapt on the very short timescales, which is a totally different approach, and obviously works.

 

Bob

[Alan D. Whitman]

Alan: which eclipse did you have to make the most effort to escape from the clouds?
 

In 1979, my second totality, we spent the night in the Tri-Cities (Kennewick, Pasco, and Richland) in semi-arid southern interior Washington state. It was February and a strong Pacific frontal system was causing moderate rain much of the night. I doubt that moderate rain would occur in that dry area even one percent of the time, even in winter. Around 4am ham radio operators reported breaks in the cloud further west in the Columbia Gorge near Hood River, Oregon. That meant that the front had moved east of Hood River. So we headed west, not on the freeway on the Oregon side of the Columbia River, but on the two lane highway on the Washington State side. I had never seen anything like it before -- heavy traffic moving west fast predawn on a winter weekday in an unpopulated area!

 

So we ended up set up on Highway 97 just north of Goldendale Observatory. That I thought was ironic, because I had planned to be anywhere but Goldendale since Sky&Telescope had recommended Goldendale which is on the dry eastern side of the Cascade Mountains. I had thought that Goldendale area would be just too busy, so had not wanted to be there. This was an early morning totality, an hour or two after sunrise. So that meant that the back edge of the frontal cloud had to move almost entirely across the sky for the Sun to get above the retreating cloud. The Sun did get above the retreating cloud perhaps half an hour before totality. We had been parked on the shoulder of Hwy 97 for an hour or so, and you have friendly, excited conversations with those parked near you as the partial eclipse deepens and expectation mounts. We had put white towels out on the car to watch for shadow bands. We had been travelling with another couple; both he and I worked at the Kelowna Weather Office (Okanagan Valley of southern interior BC). He was set up for photography.

 

Two minutes before totality a tiny cumulus cloud formed above the Sun and was headed right for the Sun. I yelled out: "We have to move!". The people parked nearby looked at me like I was crazy. (I am VERY loud.) The other weather office guy, the one set up for photography, said that he was staying. My wife tore around the car grabbing our white towels (I wouldn't have bothered), and we found out how fast my Datsun could accelerate 0 to 60. We tore about one mile north, found an empty parking spot, and my wife rushed around putting the white towels back down. It was the only time that I have seen shadow bands in the seconds before totality, because there was lots of turbulence (poor seeing) in the strong winds aloft just behind the strong Pacific front.

 

It was a sunspot maximum corona, and any images of the 1979 eclipse that you look at will show many large prominences. We just used naked-eye and 7x50 binoculars for our view of the entire corona. I remember spending a few seconds trying to look for bright stars or planets but giving up because there were lights everywhere -- numerous private jets had taken off from Seattle and Portland to view the eclipse -- a good plan for a Northwest winter eclipse except that there were so many private planes with that idea that ATC wouldn't let them all take off.

 

Perhaps 15 minutes after totality I thought that we should go back and hook up with the couple that we had been traveling with. To my surprise, we found them further North than where we had left them! Turned out that 45 seconds before totality he realized that I was right and left the spot where we had originally been parked. He took a dramatic photograph showing the little cloud covering about one quarter of the Moon and that entire side of the corona. The cloud was distinctive -- it had a prong sticking up on along the edge of the Moon. My friend was a new photographer and desperately wanted to be published. An image just like his was published in S&T some months later. Since it was a low cloud, that image could only have been taken within a few hundred feet of where he was parked (probably closer). His image is better quality than the dramatic one published in S&T, but he didn't submit his to S&T.

 

All the people who stayed where we were originally parked would have been clouded out, as were the people who rented little plots at nearby Goldendale Observatory.

 

We were home in Kelowna for dinner. That was the closest totality that I have seen to home. But most serious eclipse-chasers went to climatologically-favoured Manitoba, frozen deep in an Arctic high pressure area. Now that I am a serious eclipse-chaser, I would probably make the same decision.

 

The 1979 totality was the only time that I ever had to make such a last minute move. In eclipses like 1991 in Mexico, 2006 in Turkey,  and 2009 in China when I was doing eclipse weather consultation for tours with buses full of eclipse chasers it would, of course, have been impossible to load the buses and move as fast as we had to in 1979 when we had the ultimate mobility of a car that one has in North America.

Edited by Alan D. Whitman, 07 April 2023 - 11:44 AM.

[bunyon]

I agree knowing the weather a year out is impossible. Knowing it 12 hours out? Very good odds. Weather forecasting gets a ton of crap but has improved a lot in my lifetime. They miss, but not by as much or as often. If, on April 7, I see overcast skies forecast for my site, I'll be in a car headed toward the nearest place they say it will be clear.

 

The big risk is if you end up hundreds of miles from a clear spot. That's possible and is, as you say, mostly down to luck. 

[Bob Campbell]

I agree knowing the weather a year out is impossible. Knowing it 12 hours out? Very good odds. Weather forecasting gets a ton of crap but has improved a lot in my lifetime. They miss, but not by as much or as often. If, on April 7, I see overcast skies forecast for my site, I'll be in a car headed toward the nearest place they say it will be clear.

 

The big risk is if you end up hundreds of miles from a clear spot. That's possible and is, as you say, mostly down to luck. 

"Knowing it 12 hours out? Very good odds."

 

well, certainly better than a year

 

I have been noticing in Scottsdale, recently the forecasts have been spotty even 12 hrs out. For the most part, they are approximately correct, but there still is the chance of very fine (whispy) clouds which for astronomy/solar viewing can be a deal-breaker. Especially for an event that lasts only a few minutes.

 

Those fine clouds are dominated by random processes and defy prediction.

 

Bob

[bunyon]

Sure. But also no one besides us cares and they wouldn't interfere with a TSE. Your point is taken. But for all practical purposes, other than observational astronomy, a prediction of "clear" that turns into "high, wispy clouds" is not a miss.

[Bob Campbell]

Sure. But also no one besides us cares and they wouldn't interfere with a TSE. Your point is taken. But for all practical purposes, other than observational astronomy, a prediction of "clear" that turns into "high, wispy clouds" is not a miss.

agree 100%. Our idea of prediction accuracy is a high bar indeed!

 

Bob

[bunyon]

My father, who meant well, would always try to cheer me up by showing how the forecast didn't call for rain. I think at the beginning he really thought that meant I could go observe. Pretty sure by the end of his life he did it just to get a rise out of me.

[psandelle]

My biggest worry is they're predicting El Nino coming in strong in the winter and into next year, which could play havoc with the Southern states. But, have car, will drive!

Paul

[bill1970]

So we need to know how accurate the forecasts the day before the eclipse on April 7,2024  are for the event on April 8, 2024. So tomorrow on Saturday April 8, 2023  ,I will look at the forecasts for the following days weather( April 9 Easter Sunday)  and see how well they do this year.

[kfiscus]

Here in southern Minnesota on the one-year-to-go day, we have high thin clouds and beautiful weather.  I wish we could lock good weather in with a deposit.  Even though I won't be here, it would be nice if people got to see something.  During the 2017 eclipse, those staying here got to see nothing but rain and clouds.

[Alan D. Whitman]

For what it is worth (probably not much) around eclipse time today, one year before totality the satellite images showed the path:

Shaky conditions on the path in Texas due to extensive low cloud, but good breaks in some of the Hill Country where most are headed, plus breaks in NE Texas

Clear on the path in Oklahoma and much of Arkansas

Clear in Indianapolis

Clear on the path in most of southern Ontario, New York, southern Quebec, northern New England, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island.

 

Earlier in the day, when New Brunswick had patchy cloud, the Gulf of St. Lawrence was clear.

 

It might have been possible to see the eclipse through high cloud on the Lake Erie shore of Ohio.

Edited by Alan D. Whitman, 08 April 2023 - 02:03 PM.

[dan_hm]

My biggest worry is they're predicting El Nino coming in strong in the winter and into next year, which could play havoc with the Southern states. But, have car, will drive!

Paul

For once I might actually feel lucky to live in the Northeast :-)

[Jim Haley]

2017 Reserved and Paid for an expensive place in Charlston, NC.  Since 24hr cloud forecast not looking good stayed upstate overnight outside totality path and drove 50 miles to a county park on the centerline morning of the eclipse.  Rented a camp spot and spent the day there.  I with many others left too soon after totality ended, should have stayed for partial eclipse second half.  Still, easily drove from upstate South Carolina down to Charleston, SC (mostly on I26) and no traffic problems at all.  The few slowdowns on back roads in little towns between the campground and I 26and delayed me a minute or two.

 

If I was traveling and planning to dodge clouds in 2024 I would stay WEST of the eclipse path and travel east to view the eclipse (or NE/S to avoid clouds).  That way I could stay away from all the folks wanting to return to to the cities.  And I would wait at least several hours before leaving eclipse (if not the next day).  And I would have extra water and snacks and a mostly full gas tank.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.  I would not let predictions of traffic nightmares dictate day of traveling to the eclipse path, to clear skies, and/or later traveling home.

 

I occasionally park on the side of the road to view night sky phenomenon like meteor showers.   I do stay in my car and view out the sunroof as there are lots of snakes and wild animals in SE Texas.  

Edited by Jim Haley, 01 June 2023 - 07:45 AM.

[adlibitum]

Jay Anderson does usually give weather forecast discussions for areas along the path in the days leading up to totality, although it would be asking a lot to expect that he would have the time to study the entire path twice a day in the detail that you are asking for since Jay will be eclipse-chasing himself, not sitting at home in Winnipeg. His posts would be on the Solar Eclipse Mailing List, not CloudyNights. Usually the government weather offices whose area of responsibility includes part of the path will be aware of the upcoming totality and will give an informed discussion of prospects in their area which can help guide your decisions of where to run to, together with what you see developing in the sky.

Hi,

 

How does one join Jay Anderson’s Solar Eclipse mailing list? I’d love to be on this resource from such an experienced and detailed eclipse meteorologist. Didn’t see anything on a quick google search, thank you.

[Alan D. Whitman]

How does one join Jay Anderson’s Solar Eclipse mailing list? I’d love to be on this resource from such an experienced and detailed eclipse meteorologist. Didn’t see anything on a quick google search, thank you.

It is not Jay Anderson's personal list. But Jay and most serious eclipse-chasers are on it. There are people who have seen 30 totalities.

Solar Eclipse Mailing List: SEML@groups.io
A forum for eclipse enthusiasts to discuss eclipse-related topics.
Group Information

    449 Members
    12,272 Topics
    Started on 6/30/04

Group Email Addresses

    Post: SEML@groups.io
    Subscribe: SEML+subscribe@groups.io
   
    Help: SEML+help@groups.io

 

As you can see, you have to apply to be a member. But it is not exclusive -- they just want to keep out trolls.

[Ejohn88]

For those who haven’t seen it, meteorologist Brian Brettsneider tweeted cloud climatologies for April 8 comparing normal and El Niño years. Surprisingly little difference, although the middle of the country fares slightly worse, the far NE slightly is better. It’s hard to see on these maps, but El Niño might be unexpectedly good news for parts of México.

https://twitter.com/...705051846541314

Edited by Ejohn88, 28 June 2023 - 12:38 PM.

[bladerunner6]

If that were true, I would not be 12 out of 12 in chasing central eclipses, ten totalities and two annulars. My knowledge of meteorology, use of forecast charts (not basic public forecasts), using the opinions of government meteorologists in local weather offices who know their local weather factors well, watching satellite photo loops, and watching what I see developing in the sky allowed me to divert to find clear sky or adequate holes for totality in 1979 in Washington state, totality in 1991 south of Mazatlan when I found a hole for our nine bus tour, the 1994 annular in Oklahoma when I did not go to west Texas as had been planned due to poor weather there, 1998 in the Caribbean when I was responsible for eclipse weather consultation for three total eclipse cruise ships on a day when the weather was very different from the climatology, 2009 in China when I took our tour bus well south of Wuhan to clearer sky, and the 2012 annular in Nevada when we diverted further south than planned to avoid developing clouds.

 

In 1963 in Quebec I stayed put because I didn't know any better, and was a teenager without a car. That was the only total eclipse that I have ever viewed through cloud.

 

In 2006 in Turkey, 2012 in the South Pacific, 2017 in Oregon, and 2019 in Chile no last minute changes in plans had to be made, but would have been had the weather not been ideal. In 2015 we were on a charter jet above the cloudy North Atlantic between the Faeroes and Iceland so weather was not a factor (unless it had prevented the jet from flying).

 

If I hadn't moved to clearer skies as the meteorology on eclipse day required, I would be 6 out of 12, not 12 out of 12.

What three cruise ships in 1998?

 

I was on the Veendam.

 

Thanks.

[Alan D. Whitman]

What three cruise ships in 1998?

 

I was on the Veendam.

 

Thanks.

The Veendam where I was on the bridge on eclipse day (the captain was very helpful), alternating with rushing down to my cabin to get weather information by satellite phone (we had to break through a squall line, and then we were in the clear); the Statendam (which had most of the imagers, so it sat close in the lee of Curacao to be protected from the swells); and the Ryndam which was on the far side of the Caribbean, near Guadeloupe Passage. The Ryndam was in an area that had been cloudy for days due to a very unusual weather pattern, plus there was a plume from an erupting volcano on Montserrat. The night before totality I asked the Ryndam to move two degrees of longitude west, to clear skies.

 

All of the calls to get weather information and the communications with other ships had to be done by satellite phone, and it was hard to get on because passengers were using it to call back home, call their stockbroker, and so on -- they didn't realize that they were hurting their chances of success by preventing ship-to-ship communication at crucial times.

 

None of the three ships experienced the normal Caribbean February weather of simple scattered convective clouds being carried by the trade winds. By the time that all three ships were safely in clear skies that was the climax of the day for me, so much so that totality was anti-climatic -- I was winding down instead of ramping up as the eclipse progressed!

[bladerunner6]

The Veendam where I was on the bridge on eclipse day (the captain was very helpful), alternating with rushing down to my cabin to get weather information by satellite phone (we had to break through a squall line, and then we were in the clear); the Statendam (which had most of the imagers, so it sat close in the lee of Curacao to be protected from the swells); and the Ryndam which was on the far side of the Caribbean, near Guadeloupe Passage. The Ryndam was in an area that had been cloudy for days due to a very unusual weather pattern, plus there was a plume from an erupting volcano on Montserrat. The night before totality I asked the Ryndam to move two degrees of longitude west, to clear skies.

 

All of the calls to get weather information and the communications with other ships had to be done by satellite phone, and it was hard to get on because passengers were using it to call back home, call their stockbroker, and so on -- they didn't realize that they were hurting their chances of success by preventing ship-to-ship communication at crucial times.

 

None of the three ships experienced the normal Caribbean February weather of simple scattered convective clouds being carried by the trade winds. By the time that all three ships were safely in clear skies that was the climax of the day for me, so much so that totality was anti-climatic -- I was winding down instead of ramping up as the eclipse progressed!

Thank you for your hard and smart work that made the day a tremendous success!