29 replies to this topic

[NickLandis2023]

There's a lot of discussion today about a forecasted decline in El Niño conditions this summer.

https://www.cpc.ncep.../ensodisc.shtml

 

Synopsis:  A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).

Seems like the El Niño will still be active for the eclipse, but it will probably be weakened. This would be good news for Southern US forecasts yeah? El Niño and cloud cover are positively correlated?

[Ejohn88]

Hi Nick,

Maybe you’ve seen this by now, but perhaps paradoxically, El Niño years are associated with slightly *reduced* cloud cover over TX and adjacent regions (less effect elsewhere):

https://eclipsophile.com/2024tse/

-Eric

[Mike Q]

The current weather forecast for Ohio is 25 percent chance of rain and 62 percent cloud cover, which would be a normal April day in Ohio

[Starry_Spruce]

We probably all have information overload on this, but despite that, here is one more weather site that includes sky coverage forecast maps for North America. I had been using the NOAA ones, but they cut out Canada (which for those willing to cross the border in the northeast is problematic). This also allows you to choose and compare different forecast models, as well as separate low, medium, and high level cloud coverages. In other words, its great!

 

https://weather.us/m...308-1200z.html 

 

And here is the site I found the link on, with a discussion of the tool, as well as a few other useful links. \https://occultations...orecastMaps.htm

 

Note: I am posting this as a resource for short term weather forecasting, i.e. a week or less before April 8th, not for predictive use right now (March 7th).

Edited by Starry_Spruce, 07 March 2024 - 07:42 PM.

[bunyon]

Climate forecasts aren't what we need, though. The odds in any one place north of the Rio Grande are not wildly different and none are super promising. (That is, I've chosen to go as far SW as possible staying in the USA (because I've been renewing my passport, which I now have - not sure if I can take my rental across the river or not, guessing not). But if I had family somewhere farther NE or lived close to the path in the NE, I don't think Texas climate history is so much better to make me go there. It's better, it just isn't, "this is a near certainty" like parts of Mexico are. As it happens, where I've chosen for 2024 has almost exactly the same climate history percent clear as where I chose in 2017. And that was a close shave.

 

The only thing that matters is a few minutes on this particular April 8 and there really isn't anything to know about that until much closer to the date. You can have a 99% chance at heads but if your flip is tails, you lose.