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Decision Day

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#1 bunyon

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 06:39 AM

For us. We are supposed to board an early morning flight on Friday the 5th for San Antonio. There are family reasons for picking Texas but, at this point, we could call it off and get some airline credit (perk of my wife having flown a lot of miles with the airline). 

 

Anyway, do we go to Texas?

 

Or do we call the flight off and join a buddy's trip to Indiana?

 

Or go to another bit of family in Rochester? 

 

I think this might be an easy call on Sunday, but we have to make it no later than Friday at 5am. Realistically, we have to make it tonight.

 

 

My gut says call it off, but I'm not quite there yet.

 

Anyway, good luck to all of you as you face similar calls. 


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#2 sandman1330

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 09:27 AM

For us. We are supposed to board an early morning flight on Friday the 5th for San Antonio. There are family reasons for picking Texas but, at this point, we could call it off and get some airline credit (perk of my wife having flown a lot of miles with the airline). 

 

Anyway, do we go to Texas?

 

Or do we call the flight off and join a buddy's trip to Indiana?

 

Or go to another bit of family in Rochester? 

 

I think this might be an easy call on Sunday, but we have to make it no later than Friday at 5am. Realistically, we have to make it tonight.

 

 

My gut says call it off, but I'm not quite there yet.

 

Anyway, good luck to all of you as you face similar calls. 

Thankfully I can wait until Friday night, Saturday with a small hotel penalty. I really want Texas to work as we have made other non-refundable plans (to see JSC), but the whole main objective is the eclipse and it’s not worth the expense otherwise.

 

I have a backup plan for Toronto. It is actually easier to get to for me, so while I will lament the loss of the JSC visit, it’s not a super hard decision to make aside from incurring airline change fees.


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#3 jrussell

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 09:38 AM

Being in Texas my plan all along has been Texas. Now I'm starting to contingency plan for NE Arkansas or SE Missouri. I don't think I can realistically make it further than that since I have to be back home in time for a couple of appointments Tuesday afternoon. I can get a refund minus a small fee if I cancel my campsite I have here by Saturday so now I'm going back and forth on making my decision tomorrow, or Saturday. I keep holding out hope I don't have to change plans, but that hope is quickly dwindling.


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#4 bunyon

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 09:58 AM

Yeah, we have a spot in Eagle Pass. So NE Texas is a haul. Can't take the rental across the border. So there aren't a lot of places to run if we end up in Eagle Pass. 

 

We have cancelable hotels further NE on the continent so if we don't fly we have options to make a call on Saturday or even Sunday. But Texas would be ruled out.  

 

In other news, I'm being super productive at work today.


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#5 Bubbagumps

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 10:01 AM

Only you can make that call. You have to go with your gut feel. 

 

I still think there is room for a change in the weather. The way I see it, four days is long-range in terms of April forecasts. In the summer or winter, four-day forecasts are pretty reliable. April, not so much. It's the most volatile month of the year in terms of weather patterns.  We really won't have a highly reliable cloud forecast we can be confident in until Saturday or Sunday. Forecasting general weather is different from forecasting cloud coverage percentages over the course of a day. Right now, it's still somewhat of a crapshoot in terms of cloud coverage. 


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#6 Starhunter249

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 10:27 AM

Here is today's forecast for 4/8/2024 from NWS for Eagle Pass:

 

Monday - Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

 

This is a tough decision. Even though its four days out, the weather will be modified but i think at this point its going to be smaller tweaks to cloud predictions as we get closer to Monday. Indiana will be best bet. But then again, you don't go to Eagle Pass and it clears up enough you will have regrets. Plus, if you got family there, that may be more important. Driving North East from Eagle Pass may be worse cloud cover.

 

If it isn't going hurt too much and clear day is more important, I probably cancel and go to Indiana.


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#7 t.r.

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 10:27 AM

The Adirondacks of Upstate NY are your best bet for clear skies as of now. Rochester is predicting 60% cloud cover decreasing the further east you go. Burlington VT may have the best of luck.

#8 bunyon

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 11:37 AM

Only you can make that call. You have to go with your gut feel. 

 

I still think there is room for a change in the weather. The way I see it, four days is long-range in terms of April forecasts. In the summer or winter, four-day forecasts are pretty reliable. April, not so much. It's the most volatile month of the year in terms of weather patterns.  We really won't have a highly reliable cloud forecast we can be confident in until Saturday or Sunday. Forecasting general weather is different from forecasting cloud coverage percentages over the course of a day. Right now, it's still somewhat of a crapshoot in terms of cloud coverage. 

Just to be clear, yes, it's my call alone. I wasn't asking anyone to make it for me (I could see how my post could be read that way). And, totally agree about 4-days still being too early. If it were my own plane, I'd wait a day or two. Alas.


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#9 bunyon

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 11:38 AM

The Adirondacks of Upstate NY are your best bet for clear skies as of now. Rochester is predicting 60% cloud cover decreasing the further east you go. Burlington VT may have the best of luck.

Work requires us to be back sooner than either of those allow. I almost bought very, very expensive tickets to Montreal yesterday but, one, price, and two, only two (instead of three) seats on the return.


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#10 bunyon

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 11:40 AM

Here is today's forecast for 4/8/2024 from NWS for Eagle Pass:

 

Monday - Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

 

This is a tough decision. Even though its four days out, the weather will be modified but i think at this point its going to be smaller tweaks to cloud predictions as we get closer to Monday. Indiana will be best bet. But then again, you don't go to Eagle Pass and it clears up enough you will have regrets. Plus, if you got family there, that may be more important. Driving North East from Eagle Pass may be worse cloud cover.

 

If it isn't going hurt too much and clear day is more important, I probably cancel and go to Indiana.

I do wonder how  much of my reluctance is the fear I end up under a cloud in Indiana while my room in Eagle Pass is in deep umbra. That feels like it would feel worse than being clouded out in Eagle Pass while my buddy in Indiana sees totality. Obviously, it's moot if I see it. Or don't in either place.



#11 bunyon

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 11:40 AM

Thanks for the bull session.



#12 amitshesh

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 01:07 PM

We pivoted from San Antonio to northern Maine. We are in Boston.

It is very ironic that the part of the country where conditions were supposed to be least favorable are now most favorable. In this age of predictions, AI and everybody thinking they know everything, I love the dose of reality that nature brings. Even if it is stressful. Teaches occasional control freaks like me to let things go..

Edited by amitshesh, 04 April 2024 - 01:09 PM.

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#13 Nappa

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 01:16 PM

We pivoted from San Antonio to northern Maine. We are in Boston.

It is very ironic that the part of the country where conditions were supposed to be least favorable are now most favorable. In this age of predictions, AI and everybody thinking they know everything, I love the dose of reality that nature brings. Even if it is stressful. Teaches occasional control freaks like me to let things go..

Yes, it is surprising that the Northeast would be looking so good.
I will meet my brother who lives in Eastport, Maine then drive north a bit from there.



#14 Dan Starr

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 01:45 PM

AS OF Thur 13:44 Central Time:

 

Don't see Eagles Pass, TX on Windy.com but picking Piedras Negras and going to 1PM and 2PM on Monday the 8th Low and Medium clouds are 0% whilst High clouds are 100%.  This agrees with Clear Outside where I can search for Eagles Pass, TX and Clear Outside shows nothing but red for the location Sat, Sun, Mon and Tue...so that doesn't look good at all...definitely not where I'd want to be for this eclipse.  Clear Outside has Eagle Pass, TX medium clouds at 32 to 38%.

 

Greenwood, IN where I plan to be as of now on Clear Outside shows green from 13:00 to 16:00...what a window but it's quite early yet.

 

Good luck with your decision.

 

Dan


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#15 dan_hm

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 01:45 PM

I'm likely abandoning my Texas plans at this point, but mainly because the center line is only a 5 hour drive for me (without eclipse traffic, granted).  If I didn't live so close I would not be killing myself to change plans last minute.  It is a little painful knowing that I spent so much money on a planned Texas trip for nothing, but I'm not gonna go there unless Upstate NY changes for the worse and Texas changes for the better.


Edited by dan_hm, 04 April 2024 - 01:46 PM.

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#16 bunyon

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 02:02 PM

We get most (not all) of our money back on TX and are fortunate to be in a position to handle the loss. Also fortunate that if I have to "waste" a little and still see it elsewhere, I'm fine with it. If it was TX or stay home in NC, we'd absolutely, 100% be going to TX. 

 

Definitely one of those situations where having options is maddening. I/we (I said above this is my decision alone - egad, I hope my wife doesn't lurk on CN) will eventually make a decision and, I suspect, relax a good bit.


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#17 Joe F Gafford

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 02:05 PM

For us. We are supposed to board an early morning flight on Friday the 5th for San Antonio. There are family reasons for picking Texas but, at this point, we could call it off and get some airline credit (perk of my wife having flown a lot of miles with the airline). 

 

Anyway, do we go to Texas?

 

Or do we call the flight off and join a buddy's trip to Indiana?

 

Or go to another bit of family in Rochester? 

 

I think this might be an easy call on Sunday, but we have to make it no later than Friday at 5am. Realistically, we have to make it tonight.

 

 

My gut says call it off, but I'm not quite there yet.

 

Anyway, good luck to all of you as you face similar calls. 

 

I have Texas relatives on the eclipse path and a cousin the same in NW PA. I was going to either but the PA one now shows a better weather forecast. I will have to sit this one out due to getting my pick-up to pass my state's emissions, which took away my travel money. Gas prices had crept up in my travel routes this week. I went to the one in 2017. If you haven't experience a total eclipse, go! Enjoy your trips! 

 

Joe


Edited by Joe F Gafford, 04 April 2024 - 02:07 PM.

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#18 bunyon

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 05:17 PM

In case anyone is invested (lol.gif ), we canceled Texas. 

 

I hope that decision brings you folks down there clear skies.


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#19 TelescopeGreg

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 05:46 PM

I decided to cancel as well.  I have friends who live just west of Austin, well within the path of totality.  Haven't seen them in years, but we've kept in touch and they invited me out. 

 

With the weather forecast firming up I spoke with them on Monday.  I still want to see them, but we decided that the planned non-eclipse adventures would be better done without a bazillion annoyed astronomers milling about.  We'll do that later in the year, after the summer heat dissipates.  The non-refundable ticket credit will still be good then (flying Southwest), and I expect the authentic Texas BBQ will still be available.  #1 on the list, after the eclipse.

 

Making lemonade, our astronomy club (at least those who are still here) will be hosting an eclipse viewing at the local community center.  We'll have a telescope set up, a camera with PC monitor, and some proper eye-wear.  45% eclipse by depth (34% by area), so a much different experience, but still something worth sharing with the community. 


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#20 sbsbbugsy

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 06:11 PM

Since I've had my spot reserved since February 2023, I still plan to make the trip to Texas Friday (I live less than 40 miles from the state line anyway). I'm driving my RV, so that gives me a lot of freedom to head in any direction if needs be. The forecast that comes out Sunday morning will determine any bugging out I need to do.


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#21 woodworkt

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 07:13 PM

Does anyone know how much snow is accumulating in the Lake Placid NY area up through Plattsburgh, or have a sense what road and ground conditions are likely to be by Sunday and Monday?  I know there has been a winter storm warning with a threat of up to 2 feet of snow, but now that we're kind of far into it I'm having trouble figuring out what actually happened and what the situation is.  (Sometimes it's actually easier to find weather forecast reports than recounting of previous day's weather).



#22 hopskipson

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 09:21 PM

Does anyone know how much snow is accumulating in the Lake Placid NY area up through Plattsburgh, or have a sense what road and ground conditions are likely to be by Sunday and Monday?  I know there has been a winter storm warning with a threat of up to 2 feet of snow, but now that we're kind of far into it I'm having trouble figuring out what actually happened and what the situation is.  (Sometimes it's actually easier to find weather forecast reports than recounting of previous day's weather).

There has been 12" in the past 24 hours, today's total is expected to be 10", and 0.25" is expected in the next 24.  I'm headed to Plattsburg, NY and it's very similar. Most importantly, Monday is forecast to be Sunny!

 

I changed my plans from Austin last night.


Edited by hopskipson, 04 April 2024 - 09:22 PM.

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#23 Seachange79

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 09:38 PM

I have until 6pm CDT Saturday to cancel my hotel in Gun Barrel City, TX... and I'm holding on to it until the last possible moment.
I am still making contingency plans...one idea was to go to NY, VT, NH or ME. But, with the current snowfall up there, plus eclipse traffic, plus my being completely unfamiliar with driving on snowy/icy/hilly roads, I've ruled out that area for me. If be an accident waiting to happen.
I'm currently watching everywhere from TX to IN, and will make my decision to cancel TX or not on Saturday... and final destination decision at some point. I'm planning to hit the road Saturday night, but will continue watching and move where I need to as the forecast shores up.

#24 dan_hm

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 09:57 PM

I have until 6pm CDT Saturday to cancel my hotel in Gun Barrel City, TX... and I'm holding on to it until the last possible moment.
I am still making contingency plans...one idea was to go to NY, VT, NH or ME. But, with the current snowfall up there, plus eclipse traffic, plus my being completely unfamiliar with driving on snowy/icy/hilly roads, I've ruled out that area for me. If be an accident waiting to happen.
I'm currently watching everywhere from TX to IN, and will make my decision to cancel TX or not on Saturday... and final destination decision at some point. I'm planning to hit the road Saturday night, but will continue watching and move where I need to as the forecast shores up.

Snow and ice likely won't be an issue in the NE locations.  Maybe if you are driving on obscure backroads, but not on the major roads and highways.



#25 sanbai

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Posted 04 April 2024 - 10:41 PM

I remember my first and so far only total eclipse. I joined a Spanish big astro society - organized trip to Hungary. Internet was prehistoric by today's standards, so it's was out of the equation.

Destination was chosen because it had good chances (same reason many chose TX), without going as far as deep-Turkey.
My biggest worry that year regarding the trip was the war in the Balcans (which ended early enough to keep my plans).

During the trip, I was fully ignorant of the forecast. I woke up the eclipse day with what looked like a rock solid rainy day. We got lucky, though. At totality, the sky was fully clear and very transparent.

We'll see how lucky I'm this time in Oklahoma. I'll stay put there, I won't go any further away from Baton Rouge.

Good luck to everybody. Don't stress!

Edited by sanbai, 04 April 2024 - 10:45 PM.




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