231 replies to this topic

[Starhunter249]

T CrB NOVA WATCH
today: m=10.3 (July 1.71)
yesterday: m=10.2

[Fabricius]

The capitals suggest something spectacular has happened.

"T CrB recurrent nova watch" would be more appropriate.

Edited by Fabricius, 02 July 2024 - 11:03 AM.

[stanislas-jean]

Hi a shot of TCrb of the 1st june acquired with the equinox 2 scope.

Here is:

 

 

The variable is still glued at 10-10;5 since weeks.

Good skies.

Stanislas-Jean.

[stanislas-jean]

Hi,

Had a look every evening until yesterday 5th july, T Crb is still glued.

Good skies.

Stanislas-Jean

[stanislas-jean]

Hi,

still the same status.

Good skies.

Stanislas-Jean

 

[canukLX90]

Good to see your vigil on the blaze star just as Leslie Peltier did many years back...although he missed the night of it awakening.  I have read his "Starlight Nights" a few times enjoying his star gazing tales.  Let's hope we get to see the first night as the blaze star awakes again.

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[Special Ed]

Just to confirm S-J's observations--I eyeballed T CrB on the 3rd, 5th, and 6th from the dark skies of the Green Bank StarQuest and it was not visible.

[stanislas-jean]

Good to see your vigil on the blaze star just as Leslie Peltier did many years back...although he missed the night of it awakening.  I have read his "Starlight Nights" a few times enjoying his star gazing tales.  Let's hope we get to see the first night as the blaze star awakes again.

Thanks, Michael too, concerning your comments.

I think we are on the period of a possible burst and must be on board when weather is collaborating. A cloudy night and it may occur. 

We have to be patient about it until say september-october.

We will see.

The challenge is to capture the rising light curve.

Yesterday evening midnight the 9th, nothing new.

Good skies.

Stanislas-Jean

[kfiscus]

Just keep updating us.  Thank you.

[geovermont]

I was able to do a visual magnitude a couple of nights ago--the 6th so far this season. No change yet, but maybe next time! At this point, I have the magnitudes of the comparison stars in the field of view memorized, so it only takes a couple of minutes to do the observation once I'm set up and dark-adapted.

 

 As Stanislas-Jean notes above, the real thrill would be to catch it on the rise. Most nights here are, however, cloudy, so my chances are a bit slim.

Edited by geovermont, 10 July 2024 - 02:21 PM.

[stanislas-jean]

Hi,

Thanks a lot.

However, nothing changed yesterday evening the 11th july, between clouds.

 

 

Good skies.

Stanislas-Jean

Edited by stanislas-jean, 12 July 2024 - 05:01 AM.

[Dave Mitsky]

Here's a Seestar S50 image of T Coronae Borealis that I captured this morning from the orange zone Naylor Observatory.  My highest SQM-L reading was 19.80 mpsas.

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[Redbetter]

We should have done a pool on this one months ago when the first thread about it this year popped up.  We could have asked people to pick dates between March 2024 and March 2026.  All are within the likely window, but not the early and narrow bounds of Schaefer's prediction.  We are now two months out from the end of his 7.2 month window.  I figure his prediction has about a 50% chance or less of being within the range of the eruption.

 

In reading  a few papers about this and trying to find estimates of the mass accumulation rate, it occurred to me how much variation one might rationally expect in the period from seemingly random (unseen) events.  There is very little difference between 78, 79 or 80 years when such things are considered--the percentages are small.  The recent dip was not as great as the prior cycle's dip, so one would not expect the accumulation rate to hit the mass of the runaway CNO fusion trigger temperature at the same delta from the dip.  I would expect it to be longer as a result, and this assumes that the dip is actually predictive.  Since we only have one dip to nova cycle to work with, the nature of the relationship remains speculative. 

 

FWIW, I have been taking a quick look at the constellation over the past month, whether in town or dark sky.  It is very easy to see that the event has not yet happened.  When it happens it will be easily naked eye visible in the city.

[jcj380]

I call dibs on March 2025.

[stanislas-jean]

We can read lot of papers from here and elsewhere...

AAVSO expected something this year during holiday period. That's it!

At your scopes and leave thoughts theories etc...

This can occur any time now!

Last 12th evening, nothing more, from here.

Spectroscopispts may add any evolution here on the the topic in order to catch some premises...

If therories are correct still.

Good skies.

Stanislas-Jean

[Fabricius]

Yes, I am convinced that it will happen during holiday period.

Unfortunately, no one knows whose holiday it will be ... LOL.

[stanislas-jean]

Oh yes, we have a lot of dutch people here now, but nobody with a telescope.

It remains the naked eye...(nothing different again last 13th evening).

Good skies.

Sranislas-Jean

Edited by stanislas-jean, 14 July 2024 - 04:32 AM.

[mbuto]

I'd like to take a reference image before the event. I suspect a wide range of settings would work, but any suggestions on exposure/integration times? Using ASI 294MC Pro, 335mm refractor, and I'm thinking my Antila quad band light pollution filter in B7-8 skies. 

[stanislas-jean]

Hi,

My opinion,

it is matter of photometry and then have a look on the AAVSO website.

For magnitude quotation, the RGB system (not the camera color grid) is the must to follow and then the use of photometric filters is needed.

The Johnson filters, blue , green and red. Therefore the black and white chipset is also needed.

The serie of photo given on the forum constitutes only a matter of a follow-up to show any start of bursting.

The ss50 is built with a 462C chipset, same inconvenience.

Even a simple B/W chipset camera as the toucam philipps would be enough but B/W version, very cheap, a 200mm telelens, some photographic-photometric filters and you will be on game.

Easy.

Color chipset may be used, so refer to the AAVSO website for the specific requirements involved. Corrections has to be proceeded.

I cannot bring more but read, read and read again about with the AAVSO.

Good reference stars has to selected and used, not others (they are given with the photometric RGB johnson magnitude).

Good skies.

Stanislas-Jean

[hihojeff99]

Thanks to Soyuz and Hubble for their pics.  Helped to roughly identify TCrB in my attempt.  At 3 mins, equates to 45sub @ 4 second. Any feed back welcomed.   Thanks and clear skies.  Pic totally unedited, png. 

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Edited by hihojeff99, 18 July 2024 - 04:52 AM.

[Redbetter]

Still nothing tonight.  Taking a look in bright skies with the Moon up has been easy enough most nights.  I can still reach 5th magnitude with it high in the sky this way (I can just pick up iota CrB at 4.96 mag, in 18.2 mpsas conditions, with a few low clouds.)

 

Tonight is the 8 week mark before the end of the Schaefer prediction window, which makes it rather interesting.  

 

At this point I am suspecting that the dip will prove to be more of an artifact of the sustained active plateau (which occurs late in a cycle) than predictive of the timing of the cycle eruption.  If I have read the articles correctly, this plateau corresponds to a mass accumulation rate several times higher than baseline.  With that in mind, it might end up that the total duration of the plateau was insufficient this time around before returning to the prior base accumulation rate.  

 

The recent active plateau seems to have been a couple of years shorter than the one prior to the previous nova (although I could be misreading things.)  If that is the case, and the accumulation rate was not correspondingly higher this time around, then one would expect it to take longer to achieve critical mass for the initiation of the reaction.  Or maybe the net accumulation is somewhere in between, and the cycle will end up being close to the prior length? 

 

I guess where I am coming around on this is that there could be more predictive power in measuring the duration and intensity of the active period each cycle than trying to time it using the dip.  If the brighter plateau is a proxy for mass accumulation rate, and if the critical mass is in a narrow range, then this would do more to set the resulting nova instance of the cycle.

[stanislas-jean]

Rather than expecting models of stars, it would be interresting to highligth methods for collecting data in regards to the tool used.

This is from data collected that models can be expected in conjugaison with other ways of investigation (spectroscopy for one).

Also predictions!....?

Check every evening when possible, the sky here was cloudy.

The forum is for deep sky observing.

Thanks.

Good skies.

Stanislas-Jean

[Redbetter]

Thanks, but I will continue to discuss what is behind the predictions along with this very long string of negative observations of the event.  I could spam the thread with a "didn't happen again" every night that I observed if you like, but I doubt that you would care for it.  This is a pretty boring set of observations until something goes off, particularly if the clock ends up started a year or so prematurely due to the model used.  That model is the reason you posted this thread (whether you realize it or not), and the reason others posted several others about it here.

 

The methods of collecting data is part the problem when one is disproportionately fixated on a single event in a cycle, and potentially "missing the forest for the trees."  If you don't like discussions about what is behind this, then I suggest you find a different forum, because I'm not leaving.

[Knasal]

“Can’t we all just get along?” We’re talkin’ looking at a star guys. 

[seanqpter2]

I'm still a newbie to all of this so bear with me if I say something silly, I'm just having fun trying to use & learn technology to aid capturing this event! I've been falling in love with ASTAP on the PC recently, and I used it to stack 5.8sec x 240 shots, then annotate the image with variable star names & magnitude estimates. I've been doing this every night that weather permits for the last few months. I assume that if I use the exact same exposure duration, gain, offset and stack settings, that the magnitude estimation delta night over night should be a pretty good way to identify a change.

 

No big changes in the star's apparent magnitude according to this software, but tonight was the brightest it's been. Magnitude 10.0 estimated by ASTAP tonight, versus 10.2 - 10.6 that I've seen every other night.