231 replies to this topic

[jcj380]

3.10.25 0428 CDST:  Negative

[Raul Leon]

   

[jcj380]

Didn't blow this morning either.  

 

Murphy's Law of Astro says it'll blow when it's 100% overcast here, so maybe I'll just quit checking.

[kgb]

Astronomy requires a lot of patience.

[ABQJeff]

If nothing else, this thread is providing a means for CNers to increase their post count! 

[jcj380]

If nothing else, this thread is providing a means for CNers to increase their post count! 

I have to decide if I should celebrate hitting 5,000 or not.  

Edited by jcj380, 25 March 2025 - 09:09 AM.

[thedude_01]

It's a dud!

[JayinUT]

Interesting article from Space.Com LINK

 

Hmmmm, if the one is correct then either today 3/27/25, if not then on 11/10/25 and if not  then on 6/25/26. We'll see. This paper is an interesting read from the article.  I do agree with this quote from the article:

 

 

"Most astronomers are skeptical about this prediction, as am I," he told Space.com. "The best thing to do is to keep watching every clear night."

Edited by JayinUT, 27 March 2025 - 02:25 PM.

[CHnuschti]

Surely it has the potential to become the astronomical prediction of the century. But more likely, just ending being another attempt to get attention ...

For instance, did just hold on it with my 8x42, I can state March 27 already fell flat.

 

regards

Edited by CHnuschti, 27 March 2025 - 06:05 PM.

[PlanetNamek]

Is it going to blow before or after Halley's Comet returns? Put your bets in now!

[kgb]

Is it going to blow before or after Halley's Comet returns? Put your bets in now!

Can I have an over/under?

[Silent_Light]

Funny how multiple news outlets and "science" outlets have stories about tonight's the night !!   

[emflocater]

Its as predictable as picking the correct numbers for the top prize of the Power Ball Lottery.

 

Cheers

Don

[RLK1]

Its as predictable as picking the correct numbers for the top prize of the Power Ball Lottery.

 

Cheers

Don

"The “Blaze Star” is what’s known as a recurrent nova. When a white dwarf in a binary system sucks enough hydrogen from its red giant companion, it triggers a thermonuclear explosion. That process works almost like clockwork and results in a bright flash that has been seen every 80 years or so by previous generations of astronomers in 1786, 1866 and 1946‚ and now, almost certainly in 2025-2026. There are records going back to 1217."

 

https://www.forbes.c...t-for-79-years/

 

In the grand scheme of things, particularly in astronomical terms, it  seems a bit more predictable than correct picking numbers for a powerball lottery...

[markalot63]

Why the heck is this dud in the news again? 

 

Almost certainly 2024

now almost certainly 2025-2026

 

almost certainly in the next 5 years.  Shirley

[Mike W]

Better to hype it and get a lot of viewers than play catch up?

[Gvs]

TCRB is still normal.

 

2024 06 23, where you see another star light up on the upper left, it is the asteroid Pallas.
2024 08 01
2024 08 24 - a blue star lights up on the upper right
2025 03 22

 

 

[charles.tremblay.darveau]

This whole thing is starting to feel like a "Waiting for Godot" play.

[saemark30]

Why the heck is this dud in the news again? 

 

Almost certainly 2024

now almost certainly 2025-2026

 

almost certainly in the next 5 years.  Shirley

I've been getting this on my phone Google news every day.

Its sure to pop today, tomorrow or next week.

I'm sure if news writers cry out everyday it will happen eventually. 

[emflocater]

Almost a year since this Post started...still waiting...any day now, I just know it. Lol.

 

Cheers

Don

[RLK1]

Various professional astronomers, back in '24, were noting it may not be until 2026 until the event occurs so we're still well within the window of the prediction. It's evident a lot people can't or won't under that...

[emflocater]

Various professional astronomers, back in '24, were noting it may not be until 2026 until the event occurs so we're still well within the window of the prediction. It's evident a lot people can't or won't under that...

 

Cheers

Don

[Dave Mitsky]

As we wait on recurrent nova T CrB, dwarf nova U Geminorum is teeing up for its next 8-magnitude outburst.

 

https://skyandtelesc...low-meet-u-gem/

[Redbetter]

It is more evident that some folks have not been paying to attention to the actual timeline of predictions, since "it's about to blow" predictions have been coming out since at least 2022.  Schaefer has been the main cheerleader for this nova and his first prediction based on changes in the light curve in Dec. 2022 was for ~2023.  Direct quote from his AAVSO article:  "T CrB WILL ERUPT ~2023."  His punctuation, bold and capitalization since it was the first line of a section.

 

Then in ~March 2023 he said, "2025.5±1.3".  Then in June 2023 he prematurely called the dip and announced the eruption would be in "2024.4±0.3".  Those predictions were all by the same author in the space of perhaps 7 months.

 

Actually, of the short papers/predictions I have seen on this, the one by Jean Schneider published in October 2024 is the simplest and most interesting to me.  It noted that based on when the previous eruptions have occurred, there may be a correlation with specific point in the orbital period of the star.  This included a table of dates corresponding to that period (I am omitting the one in Aug. 2024 that passed before it was published):

• 2025 Mar 27
• 2025 Nov 10
• 2026 Jun 25

Of course the first of these available to the public was the March date, which was misinterpreted (or misrepresented?) by some media as being THE time when it was expected to erupt, vs. one of a series of potential times, and that series is only more probable if a specific theory about the timing is accurate.

 

Whenever the eruption occurs, if it happens to fall on/very near one of those dates, or later dates "on the beat", then it will indicate something more fundamental about the way the system works or is physically configured.

 

And speaking of history, Sky & Telescope had a news blurb about this back in 2016, referencing an article from 2015 when T CrB had entered the active state.  It noted that the eruption had previously occurred 8 years after T CrB entered its prior active state in 1938.  That would have put the eruption in around 2023.

[CHnuschti]

Actually, of the short papers/predictions I have seen on this, the one by Jean Schneider published in October 2024 is the simplest and most interesting to me.

 

The paper to that newest nostradamic prediction of Schneider can be read here: https://iopscience.i...515-5172/ad8bba

 

with 2 passages saying:
"In this paper I investigate a way to predict eruption dates with a precision of a week or two."
"Table 1 gives the predicted days of eruption, within a few days."

 

regards

 

P.S. Having hold just now on it with my 8x42: still nothing going on. 3 stars on the left and 2 on the right of T CrB with around 8.0m can be detected if mounted on a tripod.

Edited by CHnuschti, 31 March 2025 - 06:06 PM.