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One solar revolution...

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#1 grsnovi

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Posted 23 May 2024 - 08:25 PM

Since the massive aurora display from earlier this month was on/about 11 May and the sun's orbital period is about 27 days...

 

...what is the likelihood that the same sun spot will be causing CME's on/about 6 June?

 

I realize that this is the 11th year of the cycle. My wife has never seen the aurora "live" although I've seen it several times.

 

We recently visited the Goldendale Observatory in Goldendale, WA (USA) and they had video of the last display that ran into the early morning. Although it's about a 2 hour drive, we'd head back over if we could be reasonable sure of seeing another display. I have the https://www.swpc.noa...rd-experimental set up on our computer and thought that sometime around the end of the month I'd start watching for the appearance of that previous sun spot and CME activity.

 

Any thoughts?

 

Based on what I've seen as charted solar activity, I suspect that I saw the aurora as a child in the early 1960's from New Jersey as that seems to have been a VERY active peak period.

 

Hoping for good weather and possibly more activity from the same area on the sun.



#2 kgb

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Posted 23 May 2024 - 10:35 PM

You should post this in Solar Observing and Imaging. Ask the mods to change forum. Although there is likely some overlap, I think you'll have a better chance of garnering the best responses in that forum. No offense to the General Observing & Astronomy crowd.

#3 Tony Flanders

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Posted 24 May 2024 - 05:19 AM

You should post this in Solar Observing and Imaging. Ask the mods to change forum.

Agreed. But the answer to the question is: very close to zero. Sunspot groups change rapidly, from one day to the next. It's fairly rare for them to emerge recognizably after spending 14 days on the Sun's back side.


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#4 grsnovi

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Posted 25 May 2024 - 06:44 PM

You should post this in Solar Observing and Imaging. Ask the mods to change forum. Although there is likely some overlap, I think you'll have a better chance of garnering the best responses in that forum. No offense to the General Observing & Astronomy crowd.

From the description to the General Observing topic: This includes unaided eye observing (satellites, weather, auroras etc) and non equipment topics.



#5 kgb

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Posted 25 May 2024 - 07:47 PM

Sorry. I didn't realize what a hot topic this was going to be in General. If I knew, I wouldn't never have recommended that you ask a question, specifically about sunspots and solar revolutions, in the Solar forum.

#6 Special Ed

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Posted 27 May 2024 - 07:14 AM

Since the massive aurora display from earlier this month was on/about 11 May and the sun's orbital period is about 27 days...

 

...what is the likelihood that the same sun spot will be causing CME's on/about 6 June?...

 

 

 

 

...But the answer to the question is: very close to zero. Sunspot groups change rapidly, from one day to the next. It's fairly rare for them to emerge recognizably after spending 14 days on the Sun's back side.

Generally what Tony says about the sunspot groups is correct, but there are exceptions--maybe because we are close to solar max.

 

According to SolarHam, the big active region that caused all the aurora activity, AR 3664, is still active and about to rotate back into view.  When it does, it will get a new number but it will be the same active region--and it just produced another X-class flare.  This is from SolarHam as of this morning at 0930 UT:

 

So is old region AR 3664 still active? Of course it is!
An X2.9 solar flare was observed around the returning region at 07:08 UTC (May 27, 2024). The event is also responsible for an energetic coronal mass ejection (CME) now emerging in updated coronagraph imagery. Because the sunspot region is still located behind the east limb, the flare itself was likely stronger than the X2.9 measurement. The CME itself should be directed away from our planet. We may see some busy days ahead of us. Stay tuned!


Edited by Special Ed, 27 May 2024 - 02:40 PM.

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#7 grsnovi

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Posted 27 May 2024 - 02:01 PM

Thanks Michael.

 

So far I've just been looking at https://www.swpc.noa...rd-experimental but I'll add SolarHam to my "check daily" list!


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#8 grsnovi

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Posted 29 May 2024 - 05:54 PM

From SolarHam:

 

May 27, 2024 @ 09:30 UTC
So is old region AR 3664 still active? Of course it is!
An X2.9 solar flare was observed around the returning region at 07:08 UTC (May 27, 2024). The event is also responsible for an energetic coronal mass ejection (CME) now emerging in updated coronagraph imagery. Because the sunspot region is still located behind the east limb, the flare itself was likely stronger than the X2.9 measurement. The CME itself should be directed away from our planet. We may see some busy days ahead of us. Stay tuned!




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