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Blaze Star (T Coronae Borealis) Starting to Blow?

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#51 Xilman

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Posted 28 August 2024 - 09:15 AM

See also M31N 2008-12a ( web search will find it for you easily) which has a recurrence period of close to one year. The short period means that it has been very well studied, despite being about 15 magnitudes fainter than T CrB, though its light curve is not so well determined. Each year a team of observers, amateur and professional, monitor its field looking for an outburst. Follow-up observations generally start within a few hours of first detection

 

Here is my image taken just three days after the last maximum, when the recurrent nova was about magnitude 20.8 in the R photometric band.

 

Attached Thumbnails

  • M31N-2008a.png

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#52 Redbetter

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Posted 28 August 2024 - 02:27 PM

Is that one-sigma error?

 

Serious question, because even 3-sigma event happen rather often, which is why the particle physicists insist on 5-sigma before anything can be counted as a discover.

There are no real statistics possible, because it was a single event that was being extrapolated.  Instead it appears it is more of an estimate of what the timing would be if the same dip occurred as last time.  But there hasn't been the same dip this time, even though the announcement said there was.

 

About the only crude statistical estimate that could be made is using the period between the previous several outbursts (assuming the December 1787 outburst is valid.)  But that provides only two  prior periods.  


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#53 StupendousMan

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Posted 28 August 2024 - 08:46 PM

The AAVSO record for the 1946 outburst shows that the star remained visible to the naked eye (above mag = 6) for about one week.

 

tcrb_aavso_1946.png

 

As for Brad Schaefer's publication record, I think he's done a lot of good work, but also made some errors.  Readers might enjoy digging into the saga of the controversy over measurements of SN 1937C, for example, which are summarized and (in my opinion) put to bed by this paper:

 

https://ui.adsabs.ha.....723J/abstract

 

 



#54 Redbetter

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Posted 29 August 2024 - 02:43 PM

The AAVSO record for the 1946 outburst shows that the star remained visible to the naked eye (above mag = 6) for about one week.

However it will need to be brighter than about mag 4 to be visible/recognizable naked eye to the vast majority of observers today.  The sky is too bright for the average member of the public (who have been the target of the announcements) to recognize it even if pointed out to them.  And 4 is not obvious in suburban sky most nights, even though I can reach 5.5 on good nights.

 

So that leaves us with maybe 3 nights of it in the 3 to 4 mag range, perhaps none at 2. 

 

Even in outburst this is going to be primarily a telescope/binocular object.   


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#55 jgraham

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Posted 30 August 2024 - 09:21 PM

Tonight's update... observations through 8/30/2024 EDT...

 

T CrB (3-16 to 8-30-2024)-1j.JPG

 

It seems to be holding at its most recent maximum.

 

Clouds are returning tonight and for the next night or so. After that our weather turns dry and we may get a rare string of clear nights, or at least clear enough to grab a quick photometric image.

 

Enjoy!

 


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#56 jgraham

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Posted 03 September 2024 - 09:06 AM

I _finally_ tracked down T CrB visually using my 12" LX90GPS, and I'll be darned, it looks just like it's pictures! :) It's in a field with several 10th and 11th magnitude stars and when it erupts to 2nd magnitude its going to look amazing! I'm going to try to get a low resolution spectrum of the red giant while the white drawf is still quiescent. When the white dwarf erupts I'd expect a _very_ different spectrum. It'll be fun trying!

Near stuff.
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#57 RAKing

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Posted 03 September 2024 - 09:37 PM

I was surprised tonight when I saw that T CrB was much brighter than its normal 10.0, etc.

 

I estimated it at 9.8 and posted my info to the AAVSO database.

 

Ron


Edited by RAKing, 03 September 2024 - 09:38 PM.

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#58 Rich5567

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Posted 04 September 2024 - 04:14 AM

Last nights (03/09/24) visual estimate of T CRB with SCT 200mm.

 

03/09/24. JD 2460557.3882 at 21:19 UTC. BAA VSS chart 25.03.  =L, 9.8Mv .

 

Slightly brighter than previous estimates.


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#59 jgraham

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Posted 04 September 2024 - 10:51 AM

I'll post an update once we get through the next couple of nights, but my latest data shows it still hang'n in there at its most recent maximum.

Neat stuff.
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#60 Dean Norris

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Posted 04 September 2024 - 02:40 PM

Here’s my recent visual magnitude estimates of T Cr B. Estimates made with a 15” Truss Dobsonian and one estimate with an ST80. Light pollution made the ST 80 estimate much harder to do.

 

Date    Magnitude
8/20      9.9
8/21      9.8


8/23      9.9


8/26      9.9

8/31     10.0


8/31      9.9


9/1        9.8


9/3        9.8


 

Dean


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#61 jgraham

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Posted 04 September 2024 - 08:45 PM

Tonight I was able to see T CrB through my 5" f/16 Unitron 510. It was an easy star-hop from Epsilon CrB. Since there are no bright stars in this area T CrB should look gorgeous when it erupts. Looking forward to it!

 

Just for yucks... my Unitron 510...

 

Unitron 510 & Me (6-28-2023)-1-3.jpg

 

I'm in the picture to provide a sense of scale. This is a big (and gorgeous) scope!

 


Edited by jgraham, 04 September 2024 - 08:52 PM.

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#62 KMA

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Posted 06 September 2024 - 08:49 AM

Unitron 5inch is very nice

legendary telescope.

As for T CrB

1555+26

I usually use 6inch f 10 Jaegers refractor

I bought new in 1978.

 

with best wishes

for clear sky

KMA


Edited by KMA, 07 September 2024 - 01:29 AM.

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#63 jgraham

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Posted 06 September 2024 - 08:51 PM

Indeed, sitting under the Unitron 510 is pure magic. I have the parts for a 6" f/10 and a 6" f/15 Jaegers, now I just need the time! :)

 

Speaking of T CrB... it's cloudy tonight, so it's a good opportunity to get caught up. This is a summary of my Seestar observations through last night...

 

T CrB (3-16 to 9-5-2024)-1j.JPG

 

It looks like the system hovering around the latest maximum at about 9.8 (Tri-G). A cold front is passing through that may clear us out for most of next week. Could get interesting.

 

Neat stuff.

 


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#64 jgraham

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Posted 08 September 2024 - 10:12 PM

The weather forecast looks pretty good for most of this week so I should post an update by mid-week, but my most recent observations from last night and tonight shows that T CrB continues to hold fairly steady at its most recent maximum. If it stays there this week I'd start to think that this is a bit unusual.

 

The Plot Thickens...



#65 yuzameh

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Posted 09 September 2024 - 06:10 AM

The weather forecast looks pretty good for most of this week so I should post an update by mid-week, but my most recent observations from last night and tonight shows that T CrB continues to hold fairly steady at its most recent maximum. If it stays there this week I'd start to think that this is a bit unusual.

 

The Plot Thickens...

Probably needs a month altogether for certainty.

 

Remember, as there is no confirmed or independent evidence of the pre1946 outburst lightcurve being accurate or properly representative it can be considered as illusory and ignored.  Or put in other words, there is no known pre-outburst lightcurve available until the current time.

 

This would fit with the lack of any hint of the hightstate last time, although nothing says that any two outburst events have to follow the same route in terms of lightcurve.

 

One prediction that could be made is that T CrB is returning to a high state again similar to the near decade long one that it just came out of a few orbital periods ago.  In other words, this is all new.  Try and compare your lightcurve with those from others using 'green band' measures, even if the values don't agree exactly the progressing morphology of the lightcurve is what you are checking against.

 

Again, a week isn't enough for discerning a new pattern, even if it is enough to hint at a difference to the prior pattern, as it might just be a glitch.

 

You also seem to have far more scatter in your measurements in recent times, which may mean flickering is occurring but may simply mean you are having air mass issues or some such atmospheric effect as the altitude of your target grows less, but the amplitude of ellipsoid variation exceeds your scatter so after a month you should be able to see whether the lightcurve morphology has changed or not.

 

There hasn't been any mention from the professional lists about this either optically or in x rays or spectrscopically and it is being monitored by some it seems.



#66 KMA

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Posted 09 September 2024 - 11:30 PM

A few moments ago

2024 Sep. 10.12360 UT

T CrB observed at visual magnitude 9.9mv.

No change.

 

KMA


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#67 Rich5567

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Posted 10 September 2024 - 05:27 PM

 (Visual estimate of T CRB with SCT 200mm)

 

10/09/24. JD 2460564.4343 at 22:25 UTC. BAA VSS chart 25.03.  L-2, 10.0Mv.


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#68 jgraham

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Posted 11 September 2024 - 09:03 PM

My Seestar data set updated a few minutes ago with tonight's observation. Our weather is about to turn cloudy, so this was a good time to post an update.

 

T CrB (3-16 to 9-11-2024)-1j.JPG

 

Still hang'n in there near its most recent maximum.

 


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#69 Redbetter

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Posted 11 September 2024 - 11:33 PM

Still no kaboom.  This was the last night (UTC) in the prediction window.  So we can now dispense with the pre-eruption dip theory, or at least the one based on a smaller dip that unfolded differently than predicted.

 

I guess it will get interesting if a substantial dip does finally occur.  It could end out playing out as the last eruption is believed to have happened.  Or there might be no big dip, and the outburst could happen at any time going forward.  


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#70 KMA

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Posted 13 September 2024 - 08:39 AM

T CrB observed at

2024 Sep. 13.0354 UTC

visual magnitude 9.9mv

 

no change

 

best wishes for clear sky

KMA


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#71 yuzameh

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Posted 13 September 2024 - 01:02 PM

It will be quite interesting to see if this pans out and remains as another high state.  Remember, previous outbursts have no independently confirmed or assured pre-outburst lightcurves, so this will be the first firm standard.

 

I know some have said threads continually updating on this object are pointless, tell us when something happens sort of gripe, but as nothing is really known bits of photometry, visual or machine photometry, is unique to this outburst, especially the latter, and multiple confirmations (three here, two visual and one imaging, possibly more if i haven't looked properly) are independently confirming each other.  Despite offsets of about one tenth of a mag they are confirming a slightly brighter maximum that appears to be stalling at that point instead of fading at present (still too soon to tell, a month will lead to certainty, as min to max and max to min, with two max and two min per orbit, and an orbital period of 227 ish days leads to 57 ishish days for a max to min so if hasn't shifted in about half that, ie 28 days or one moonth (as opposed to a month) then something different happening will be evident.  That is, if I can add up properly...

 

Temporary variations of a tenth of a mag or so during that time may just be the object flickering, result of low altitude and/or low solar longitude observing times coming up, and worse still it won't be long before it becomes a morning object again (although at least the nights are drawing in now if you're North enough, and 12h day and night in the coming UT noonish 22/09/2024 autumnal equinox).

 

Or it has just outburst now whilst I was looking... ...nothing's assured, and despite the monotony and tediousness of it to some negative results are still results, coz it am a science as well as a passtime, don't ya know.


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#72 StupendousMan

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Posted 14 September 2024 - 07:37 PM

Here's the V-band light curve over the past four years or so from the AAVSO:

 

tcrb_a1..jpg

 

I've been monitoring it for the past three months or so.  I wish it would do something soon.


Edited by StupendousMan, 14 September 2024 - 07:38 PM.

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#73 goodricke1

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Posted 14 September 2024 - 08:23 PM

It's sobering to think that, in real terms, it has outbursted 40 times since the one we are waiting for....



#74 Bob_Gardner

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Posted 15 September 2024 - 11:10 AM

Here's the V-band light curve over the past four years or so from the AAVSO:

 

attachicon.gif tcrb_a1..jpg

 

I've been monitoring it for the past three months or so.  I wish it would do something soon.

Thanks for posting that.  I'm counting 10 peaks in 4 years, or about 9 cycles in 1100 days, for an average of 120 days (4 months) between peaks.  Looks like we just passed a peak.  The amplitude of the cycles appears to be increasing.  


Edited by Bob_Gardner, 15 September 2024 - 11:11 AM.


#75 yuzameh

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Posted 15 September 2024 - 04:35 PM

Thanks for posting that.  I'm counting 10 peaks in 4 years, or about 9 cycles in 1100 days, for an average of 120 days (4 months) between peaks.  Looks like we just passed a peak.  The amplitude of the cycles appears to be increasing.  

Hadn't really noticed this amplitude increase until you mentioned it, now there's something interesting, I'm gonna guess it's from the red giant, maybe a hotspot, due to accretion disc brightening I suppose, which could be the start of increased mass transfer with some hysteresis on the go.  Or not.  The last "high state" in the twenty teens apparently hid the ellipsoidal morphology of the lightcurve, at least mostly, and memory says past amplitude in visual was around 0.4, which seems to be being exceeded.

 

I stared at some data myself earlier today, by coincidence, looking at recent BAA photometry database lightcurves, and it looks like the recent maximum is just beginning to tale off and the decline start.  The AAVSO lightcurve generator, or more properly their data, is always too messy and ambiguous for certainty when you zoom in to small ranges of time so even though I looked at that it was all over the place.  This is because a lot of photometrists claim V but aren't giving V.  Yes, I know there are many alternatives to unfiltered V using V mags or visual mags for comparisions, but the primary is red and you really need proper B and V to allow for colour terms which you can get away with ignoring with non-coloured stars, but not here.  B-V was ambiguous, it is either the same or shifting about 0.1, which is next to nothing.  Also, I've never been sure how good even quality amateur Johnson B is because as far as I can tell you need to be up above moisture to avoid early balmer line cutoff and more observers than not are nearer to sea level or forests or urban environments.

 

Only safe prediction is early November 2025, as that is the same gap as between the last two outbursts.  However, that's all the data there is in reality, so if it goes boom it will do so when it is ready.

 

As for what it has really done since the outburst, as noted elsewhere, that's not the case, as the speed of light in vacuo is a finite absolute, then no matter how fast it is, we can only talk with respect to our frame of reference.  We cannot instantaneously jump to T CrB and look at the past years, we in effect see it real time, no matter how many light years distant it may be, because we can't swap from our invariant frame to its invariant frame.  That's why technically when people say light from a distant object is so many years old, they are wrong, it's realtime when it hits us.  Neither did it take the same number of years as light years distant to get here, as a photon in its own reference frame is moving near its maximum speed (even space has matter and magnetic fields and concentrated gravity clumps), so it has barely travelled at all.  Newtons absolute here and now does not exist.  I think that's how it works, anyway, but I've been wrong before, and will quite readily be wrong again.




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